The campaign continues today with the Oregon Primary for both parties and the Kentucky Primary for Democrats. With Trump unopposed, all the attention is now on Clinton and Sanders. FiveThirtyEight does not have a forecast for either of today's contests, instead skipping ahead to California and New Jersey in June. That's because polling has been very sparse. Real Clear Politics lists only one poll for Oregon, which shows Clinton ahead 48% to 33%, and no polls for Kentucky. I doubt that poll for Oregon, as do the reporters for the San Diego Union-Tribune, all of whom venturing an opinion predict Sanders will win it. Three of four of them think Clinton will win Kentucky, but that state is a lot like West Virginia, which Sanders won. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Kentucky, too.
Enough of the political analysis. Time to do what I suggested in the footnote to Solar Impulse 2 lands in Phoenix, post some marching music for my readers to enjoy while they await the election returns. Today, I feature the Oregon Crusaders, beginning with 2014's Nevermore show.
Now, the finale of 2015's show.
Oregon Crusaders 2015That's it for this installment of the series. The big finale will come on June 7, when I feature corps from California and New Jersey, two great drum corps states.
Semifinals run of "The Midnight Garden" on August 7, 2015
Featuring "Pumpkin Pursuit" by Patrick Doyle from Disney's 2015 version of "Cinderella"
The Oregon poll is recent enough to be considered up-to-date and reflective of the party mood. If Oregon is a closed primary, it favors Hillary. The population of the West Coast when it comes to Dems is very progressive but along the party norms, I don't see a lot of socialist-leaning sensibilities from the people I know living out that way.
ReplyDeleteKentucky is the real wild card. No polling at all, with an odd mix of Southern centrism but also anti-Establishment attitudes among the population. It depends on 1) if Kentucky is open or closed primary, and 2) the demographics between non-white and white voters. Sanders could pull off a win in Kentucky, but it'll be close.
The other factors will be the anger/outrage towards the pro-Sanders mob that disrupted the NV gathering last weekend, and the shocking news about Burlington College's closing that does not look at all good for Mrs. Sanders due to her mismanagement. A lot of fence-sitters have to make a decision today...
Oregon is a closed primary and a mail-in primary. Lots of people have already sent in their ballots, so there aren't as many fence-sitters as you might think. As for the demographics, Harry Enten of FivethirtyEight thinks that they strongly favor Sanders in Oregon and very weakly favor Clinton in Kentucky. However, New York Magazine reports that the poll you cited showed most of the lead among people who had already mailed in their ballots. People who hadn't were split between Bernie and Hillary.
DeleteAlso, I hadn't heard that news about Mrs. Sanders. I'll have to read up on it now.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/what-happened-at-burlington-college/482973/
DeleteMrs. Sanders pushed for a big gamble of a real estate buy to try and expand their facilities (they were in a converted boxed store at the time). Problem was, the land deal was more than the school could chew, and it created financial difficulties that killed their accreditation, which culled back attendance and basically started a death spiral.
small colleges do close all the time, what matters is the cause of that closing. Here, it was at best an overly optimistic dream and at worst greed-driven overreach. Either way, it does not paint a rosy picture of the Sanders family mindset.
Thanks for that link. My response to that news was "where was the board of trustees when the decision to purchase was made?" Or were they just there to rubber stamp the president's decisions?
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