'NASA Expert Answers Your Questions About Asteroid 2024 YR4' for Apophis Day

It's Apophis Day, when I report on the perils of space! For this year's observance, I'm returning to A small chance asteroid impacts Earth in 2032. Watch NASA Expert Answers Your Questions About Asteroid 2024 YR4.

You’ve heard about asteroid 2024 YR4 and we’ve heard your questions — so let’s talk about it. What are the chances it’ll hit Earth? Why do those odds keep changing? And should you be worried? (Spoiler alert: No). Get the facts from a NASA expert and learn how we track asteroids, update predictions, and keep an eye on the skies.

The odds have dropped even more, as NASA reported on its planetary defense blog.

NASA has significantly lowered the risk of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 as an impact threat to Earth for the foreseeable future. When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032. As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have updated its impact probability on Dec. 22, 2032 to only 0.004% and found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.

Good news! But..."There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%." Space.com/VideoFromSpace includes that news in Asteroid 2024 YR4's shape and origin revealed - Small chance it hits the moon!

Astronomers using the Gemini South Telescope and W. M. Keck Observatory have determined the shape and origin of asteroid 2024 YR4. It now has a 'few percent' chance of impacting the moon after it was determined that it will most likely not hit Earth, according to NOIR Lab.

Should there be Artemis and Gateway astronauts on and around the Moon, they'll be at risk. I'm sure NASA and ESA will be prepared. In the meantime, we here on Earth will be safe.

As my regular readers might note, no Sunday entertainment feature or highlights of last night's Saturday Night Live today. The blog passed its page view goals for April on Sunday night, so I'll be posting evergreen and holiday content through the end of the month. Stay tuned.