
I told my readers to "Stay tuned for part two featuring the movie nominees, which will be the Sunday entertainment feature" in
part 1 yesterday, so here are the
film nominations at tonight's ceremony without stars with handicaps of their chances to win along with analyses of their
politics and government content served with side helpings of how well they present
diversity.

Best Motion Picture: Drama
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
This category includes both of the most nominated films, "
Belfast" and "
The Power of the Dog" with seven nominations each. The former is more political, as it takes place in Northern Ireland during the 1960s, when
The Troubles started to escalate, while the latter is more personal, although both are primarily family dramas. The same is true of the next most nominated drama film, "
King Richard," with four nominations, although it's also a sports story with a strong element of racial diversity, so social commentary is an important element, if not the dominant one. Skipping to the nominee with the fewest nominations, two, "
CODA" is another family drama that explores another axis of diversity, ability, and includes social commentary. My personal favorite is "Dune" with three nominations. As
I wrote on TV Talk Show Host Day, it features a lot of futuristic politics and political allegory in its science fiction. "Dune" probably also features a racially diverse cast.
I think it's between "Belfast" and "The Power of the Dog" for this award, with the edge going to "Belfast." This is an international film and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) is voting, so I think that might be enough. As I reiterate whenever I write about awards programs, electorates matter. Speaking of which, the Motion Picture Academy might favor "The Power of the Dog" while a vote of the general audience would probably pick "Dune," the only nominee also nominated at the
People's Choice Awards.
Best Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
Cyrano
Don't Look Up
Licorice Pizza
tick, tick... BOOM!
West Side Story
"
Don't Look Up," "
Licorice Pizza," and "
West Side Story" all tie for the most nominated comedy or musical with four nominations each. The most political is "Don't Look Up," which uses a
comet impact as a metaphor for the reaction to and inaction about
climate change. This is right up my alley and I plan on writing an entry concentrating on the film. While it's my favorite, it's not my pick to win unless the HFPA really wants to make a political statement. Instead, I think "West Side Story" has the inside track. I've heard and read nothing but good things about it other than its disappointing box office and some quibbles about its representation of Puerto Ricans, which still makes it the most diverse among nominated comedies and musicals. That's too bad for "Licorice Pizza," which takes place where I grew up from the perspective of someone near my age at the time and which has a campaign of Los Angeles Mayor as part of the plot. I think I'd like to watch that.
"
Cyrano" and "
tick, tick... BOOM!" both have two nominations. The former, like "West Side Story," is an updated adaptation of a classic, while the latter is a biography of the creator of "Rent." I think that might play better with the Hollywood creators than it would with the HFPA.
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
My Sunny Maad
Raya and the Last Dragon
I decided to move both Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign Language Film up here so that all of nominations of films instead of individuals would all be together at the head of the post instead of being last on the list. I think that gives them the credit they're due.
"
Encanto" is the only nominee with more than one nomination in this field, three, so I consider it the odds-on favorite. Its main competition is probably "
Flee," which beat "
Summer of Soul" at the Gotham Independent Film Awards in the documentary feature category. It's also on the
shortlist for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars, making "Flee" a triple threat.
All of the nominees feature diversity, although in the case of "Luca," it's fantastic instead of realistic. "Raya and the Last Dragon" also features fantastic politics and government, while both "Flee" and "My Sunny Maad" have animated takes on the political situation in Afghanistan.
Best Foreign Language Film
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
Drive My Car (Japan)
The Hand of God (Italy)
A Hero (Iran)
Parallel Mothers (Spain)
Only "Parallel Mothers" has more than one nomination with the other for Best Original Score, so I would say it's the nominal favorite. However, the Motion Picture Academy did not put it on the shortlist for Best International Feature Film, so that might dull its edge. On the other hand, all the rest of the nominees did make that shortlist. Again, electorates matter.
Follow over the jump for the individual nominations, both for actors and the people behind the camera.