Here comes another serving of Satan Sandwich

As it looks like the government is headed for the first shutdown since 1995,* it's time to point out again the effect the previous serving of Satan Sandwich is having on science research.  This time, Boston University, one of the campuses on this year's campaign trail, has the honor.

MED Grapples with Major Sequestration Cuts
Centers bracing for cuts, layoffs as NIH budget slashed
By Susan Seligson
09.16.2013

No one knows the ultimate toll that federal sequestration will take on the Boston University Medical Campus. But its research centers have already seen cuts of up to 100 percent for fiscal 2013, necessitating layoffs and a renewed, urgent push to secure nongovernment funding sources.

Research funding for the School of Medicine has fallen 16 percent from last year, says Karen Antman, MED dean and provost of the Medical Campus and the John Sandson Professor of Health Sciences. Virtually all of the drop is in funding for centers. “Big center grants are being hit hardest,” Antman says. And a conversation with MED researchers makes it clear the cuts are having a large ripple effect already.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) “is making the right choices given the terrible position the Congress put them and us in, but it’s awful for researchers and for the country,” says Joseph P. Mizgerd, a MED professor of medicine, microbiology, and biochemistry and director of the Pulmonary Center. Mizgerd says the NIH’s National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) did not renew funding for a multiproject lung development center grant, now in its 20th year, a decision being appealed by principal investigator Wellington Cardoso, a MED professor of medicine and pathology. Sequestration “is only the latest event in a decade of fading congressional support for biomedical research,” Mizgerd says.

Of course, that's not the tune the corn pone fascists are singing.


Let's see how happy they will be in a few days, when the scenario I posted on Kunstler's blog this morning comes true.

I don’t think the “suicide caucus,” as Charles Krauthammer called them, has a clue. On the other hand, some of their big money funders just might. Ryan Lizza of the New Yorker thinks that after the markets tank today and tomorrow, they’ll call the GOP leadership and tell them in no uncertain terms that what they’re doing is bad for business and to stop the nonsense.

Let's hope that makes enough of a difference to both stop the shutdown and get a debt ceiling increase.

And that's it for this month, which like last month, saw more than 11,000 page views for this blog.  While it wasn't as many views as last month, it was still the best 30-day month in terms of readers in this blog's history.

*I was working for a contractor to the U.S. government then.  It didn't hurt me, but it was ridiculous none the less.

Examiner.com article on registration deadline

Want to vote this November? Register by October 7th

While the next election is more than a month away, the deadline to register to vote is in just one week.

All those who wish to vote on November 5th must be registered to vote by Monday, October 7th.  Michigan residents can find out if they are already registered by filling out the online form at the Secretary of State website.  However, if one has moved to a new city or township, one must re-register.  Also, if one has moved from one residence to another within a city or township, one must update the address.  Normally, that happens when the address on a driver's license is changed at the Secretary of State's office.

Those who are not yet registered can obtain applications to register to vote can be obtained at Secretary of State branch office, a local county, city, or township clerk's office, and online at the Secretary of State's website.
...
In Washtenaw County, residents of the cities of Ann Arbor, Chelsea, Milan, and Saline as well as the Village of Dexter will be voting on candidates this November.  In addition, residents of Milan, Saline Township, Ann Arbor Public Schools, Saline Schools, and South Lyon schools will be voting on millage proposals the same day.

More information, including the names, addresses, and phone numbers for the Washtenaw County Clerk, the city clerks for Ann Arbor, Chelsea, Milan, and Saline, and the township clerks for Dexter and Saline, at the link in the headline.

Yes, this is a boring article, but it's useful, both for the readers so they can know it's time to register and for me, as it keeps my status as a writer for Examiner.com.  I'm sure I'll be using that position a lot between now and November 8th, when the election results stop being newsworthy.

Fireball over Ohio and other meteor and asteroid news

I concluded Fireball over Indiana seen from Michigan with this programming note.

I have more news about meteors and meteorites on tap, which I promise to post later.

Events have added to the meteor news since then, as WCPO just reported Meteors light up Cincinnati sky.

An expert from the Cincinnati Observatory explains the recent celestial happenings.

NASA caught one of the fireballs on camera, which Space.com shows in Large Fireball Seen Streaking Over Ohio.

A meteoroid traveling at ~114,000 mph, slammed into Earth's atmosphere almost directly over Columbus, Ohio. It was visible from 14 U.S. States. NASA's all-sky camera in Hiram, Ohio captured the fireworks at 11:33pm EDT on Sept. 27th, 2013. (looped)

That's not the same meteor in the previous report from WOOD-TV.  Just the same, it's not necessarily a sign of greater activity, just greater awareness and opportunity.  As the astronomer noted in the WCPO video, people are more likely to see meteors at this time of the year.  That's the opportunity.  Follow over the jump for the other meteor and asteroid stories, including ones about the reason for the increased awareness.

Fracking research from campuses on the campaign trail

Last night's Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (IPCC report released) included two stories about fracking from juridisctions with state and municipal elections this November.  The first, from the University of Virginia, proposed a way we could have our cake and eat it, too.

U.Va. Researcher: Methane Out, Carbon Dioxide In?
Matt Kelly
September 26, 2013

A University of Virginia engineering professor has proposed a novel approach for keeping waste carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

Andres Clarens, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at U.Va.’s School of Engineering and Applied Science, and graduate student Zhiyuan Tao have published a paper in which they estimate the amount of carbon dioxide that could be stored in hydraulically fractured shale deposits after the methane gas has been extracted. Their peer-reviewed finding was published in Environmental Science and Technology, a publication of the American Chemical Society.

The team applied their model to the Marcellus Shale geological formation in Pennsylvania and found that the fractured rock has the potential to store roughly 50 percent of the U.S. carbon dioxide emissions produced from stationary sources between 2018 and 2030. According to his estimate, about 10 to 18 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide could be stored in the Marcellus formation alone. The U.S. has several other large shale formations that could provide additional storage.

That would be nice, if it could be done in a way that doesn't cost more energy than the original fracking produced.  On the other hand, it would do nothing about the other environmental issues that come with fracking.  The University of Cincinnati is investigating those in Tapping a Valuable Resource or Invading the Environment? Research Examines the Start of Fracking in Ohio.

At an international forum, preliminary research out of the University of Cincinnati examines groundwater resources near hydraulic fracturing operations in the Buckeye State.

Amy Townsend-Small, a University of Cincinnati assistant professor of geology, will present on the study on Sept. 27, at the 10th Applied Isotope Geochemistry Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

The team of UC researchers spent a year doing periodic testing of groundwater wells in Carroll County, Ohio, a section of Ohio that sits along the shale-rich Pennsylvania-West Virginia borders. The study analyzed 25 groundwater wells at varying distances from proposed fracking sites in the rural, Appalachian, Utica Shale region of Carroll County. Because the region is so rural, the majority of the population relies on groundwater wells for their water supply.

“This is a major area for shale gas drilling in Ohio, and one reason is because shales in the area are thought to have a good amount of liquid fuel as well as natural gas,” says Townsend-Small.

The researchers are currently analyzing samples from groundwater wells over a one-year period, with water samples drawn every three-to-four months.

The samples are being analyzed for concentrations of methane as well as hydrocarbons – a carcinogenic compound – and salt, which is pulled up in the fracking water mixture from the shales, which are actually ancient ocean sediments.

“We’re examining changes over time resulting from fracking, and since this is just beginning in Ohio, we have the opportunity to make some baseline assessments,” says Townsend-Small.

The results should be interesting.

Voyager confirmed in interstellar space and other space news

It's been a while since I've posted a comprehensive digest of a week's space and astronomy news.  Now seems like a good time to resume for the time being, as I have a major story to post plus a full week's worth of material from NASA, Space.com, and Discovery News to supplement it.

First, a story that I've covered at least four times to date, Voyager leaving the Solar System and entering interstellar space.  NASA Television on YouTube confirms that the probe has finally done so in Voyager in Interstellar Space! On This Week at NASA.

During a press briefing at NASA headquarters, scientists announced that the Voyager 1 spacecraft has officially left our solar bubble and has reached interstellar space. The Voyager Interstellar Mission (VIM) seeks to extend NASA's exploration of the solar system beyond the outer planets -- to the outer limits of the Sun's sphere of influence, and possibly beyond. Voyager 1 and its twin Voyager 2 were launched 16 days apart in 1977. Also, Off the Earth, For the Earth, Comings and Goings, Flight Of Cygnus, Rockets 2 Racecars, InSight Landing Sites and more!

Follow over the jump for news included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (LADEE launched) arranged from interstellar space to Earth orbit.

University of Cincinnati explores energy from waste

In this installment of sustainability-related research news from campuses on the campaign trail, I present two stories from the University of Cincinnati I originally included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (IgNobel Prizes) about their students' efforts to produce renewable energy from waste.

UC Business and Engineering Students Win First Place in National Sustainability Competition
By: Judy Ashton
Date: 9/11/2013 12:00:00 AM

A group of students from UC’s Carl H. Lindner College of Business and the College of Engineering and Applied Science (CEAS) took first place to earn the 2013 Odebrecht Award for Sustainable Development.

Ronald Gillespie, BSIM ’14; Ethan Jacobs, CEAS ‘13, MBA ’14; and Qingshi Tu, CEAS ’15; presented their Bearcat Clean Energy startup business idea called Effuelent in Miami on Sept. 9 to win $40,000, topping teams from University of California Berkeley and Florida International University to win.

Effuelent, a Waste to Energy company, extracts fat, oil and grease from wastewater to produce a low-cost biodiesel feedstock. Currently those substances are regarded as waste and end up in landfills. Through technology developed by UC CEAS professor Mingming Lu, Effuelent uses a waste grease extraction process produce a low-cost alternative (soy, rapeseed and corn oils) to expensive agricultural based biodiesel feedstock.

Researchers Read the Coffee Grounds and Find a Promising Energy Resource For the Future
What’s usually considered old garbage might be a promising asset for our energy supply, according to University of Cincinnati researchers.
By: Dawn Fuller
Date: 9/9/2013 11:30:00 AM

For many of us, it’s the fuel that wakes us up and gets us started on our day. Now, University of Cincinnati researchers are discovering that an ingredient in our old coffee grounds might someday serve as a cheaper, cleaner fuel for our cars, furnaces and other energy sources.

Yang Liu, a graduate student in environmental engineering in UC’s College of Engineering and Applied Science (CEAS), presents a summary of early-but-promising discoveries on his team’s research at the American Chemical Society’s (ACS) 246th National Meeting & Exposition this week in Indianapolis.
...
The researchers launched the project in 2010, gathering waste coffee grounds in a five-gallon bucket from a Starbucks store on UC’s campus. After collection, they removed the oil from the waste coffee grounds and converted triglycerides (oil) into biodiesel and the byproduct, glycerin. The coffee grounds were then dried and used to purify the biodiesel they derived from the waste coffee grounds.

I teach Barry Commoner's Laws of Ecology to my students every semester.  Two of them are there is no away and nature knows best.  Both of those laws share the idea that there is no waste in nature.  All matter cycles in ecosystems and one organism's leftovers are another organism's food.  Therefore, a nature knows best solution to our energy issues would include extracting energy from our refuse, just like both of these projects.  Also, both recycle what is considered low-quality matter and convert it into high-quality matter that can be turned into high-quality energy.  That's exactly what a low-throughput economy requires.  Here's to both of these ideas scaling up to commercially successful levels.

Professor Farnsworth approves of my gas price predictions

It's entries like Gas prices gliding down to begin Autumn that encourage me to make more short-term gas price forecasts.

I made two predictions in Looks like gas prices have dead cat bounces, too.  The first already came true.

Saturday afternoon, the local station had already dropped its price to the Detroit average of $3.53.  Yesterday, it lowered it some more to $3.45, back where it was when this all started.  With that kind of price history, I doubt the three stations down the block moved a cent.  I expect to see all four of them at $3.45 or less this morning when I drive past.

That's exactly where they were, $3.45.

The second still looks good.

As for the relevant average gas prices, the national average is currently $3.49, Michigan is between $3.55 and $3.56, and Detroit is at $3.50.  All of them are going down like parachutes.  In this environment, combined with the neighborhood stations usually selling regular at up to a dime below the Detroit average, I wouldn't be surprised to see them selling gas at $3.39 within a week.

Tuesday morning, all of them dropped their prices to $3.44.  I know, a penny isn't much, but it's exactly the kind of incremental step down I expect right now.

I didn't even have to wait the full week.  Today, all four neighborhood stations were selling regular at $3.39.  I tried to fill up my wife's car at the corner station, but it was too busy, I had hot food in the car, and I was hungry, so I went home to eat.  Tomorrow I plan on filling up both cars to make up for it.

That's not all.

The metro area average is below the previous low, and the statewide average is nearly there, based on the levels I described when the latest dead cat bounce began.

The day I posted Professor Farnsworth, the average prices in the state and metro area bottomed out at $3.46 and $3.48, respectively...

Locally, the dead cat has stopped bouncing and it's about to go thud in the rest of the state.  I eagerly await hearing the echo of it hitting bottom and then sliding downslope for the rest of the year.

According to Econobrowser, both the national and state averages are $3.44 while the Detroit average at $3.41.  The sound you hear is a distant thud followed by sliding.

Fireball over Indiana seen from Michigan

WOOD-TV reports on Meteor seen over West Michigan.

Kyle Underwood explains the difference between a meteoroid, meteor, and meteorite.

Yes, it turned into a science lecture, but given the state of science in the public mind, this is probably a good thing.

I have more news about meteors and meteorites on tap, which I promise to post later.

Biodiversity and space news from University of Colorado

To mark Floods in Colorado from ABC News and University of Colorado becoming the most read entry of the year so far with 841 page views, placing it in fourth ahead of Second Year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News: Examiner.com, which has 747 page views, I present these two news items from the University of Colorado, Boulder originally included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (IgNobel Prizes).

First, from the university's YouTube channel, Undergraduate researchers at CU-Boulder net rare bumblebee.

Undergraduate researchers working on a CU-Boulder bumblebee survey discover the return of the western bumblebee to the area. The western bumblebee has been in steep decline across most of its range, which stretches across the western United States and Canada.

Good biodiversity news!

Next, DANDE, followed by the press release about the satellite and its launch.

A satellite designed and built by CU-Boulder undergraduate students is slated to launch into Earth orbit over the weekend. Known as the Drag and Neutral Density Explorer satellite, or DANDE, the spacecraft will collect data 200 to 300 miles above the Earth to help scientists better understand drag forces on satellites, including the effects of solar activity that increase atmospheric density, casing satellite orbits to degrade more quickly. Watch as project co-leaders discuss the satellite, its mission and the hands-on experience of building a satellite for NASA.

University of Colorado, Boulder: CU-Boulder student-built satellite slated for launch by NASA Sept. 15 - See more at: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2013/09/11/cu-boulder-student-built-satellite-slated-launch-nasa-sept-15#sthash.sBB8JqDK.dpuf
September 11, 2013

A small beach ball-sized satellite designed and built by a team of University of Colorado Boulder students to better understand how atmospheric drag can affect satellite orbits is now slated for launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California on Sept. 15.

The satellite, known as the Drag and Atmospheric Neutral Density Explorer satellite, or DANDE, is designed to investigate how a layer of Earth’s atmosphere known as the thermosphere varies in density at altitudes from about 200 to 300 miles above Earth. There are thousands of satellites orbiting Earth at those altitudes, most of which eventually degrade, lose altitude and burn up in the atmosphere.
...
DANDE is carrying an accelerometer, a wind and temperature spectrometer, an onboard computer, an orientation control system and radio equipment to send back data to Earth in real time. DANDE, whose primary investigator is COSGC Director Chris Koehler, will launch aboard a commercial Falcon-9 Space-X rocket that also will carry satellites from the Canadian Space Agency, Cornell University and Utah State University.

Good space and engineering education news!

That's it for news from Colorado for this campaign season.  Time to move on to Alabama and Massachusetts, both of which had primary elections this past Tuesday.

Climate news from NASA and campuses on the campaign trail

The latest IPCC report on climate change that I previewed in Hot: IPCC report leaked is due out today.  To mark the occasion, here are the climate stories I originally included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (LADEE launched) and Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (IgNobel Prizes).

First, NASA Explorer tells its channel's viewers to Ask a Climate Scientist.

Have a question that's always confounded you about Earth's climate? Wonder why it matters that the climate is changing now if it has changed before? Or how scientists know changes seen in recent decades are the result of human activities, not natural causes?

Go ahead. Ask a climate scientist.

NASA scientists will be recording video responses to some of the questions we receive. The responses will be posted to the NASAExplorer YouTube channel.

To submit a question, record a short, 10-15 second video with your question and upload it to YouTube -- and be sure to tag the video "#askclimate" so that we can find it. You can also simply post a question on Twitter with the same hashtag, "#askclimate."

NASA has at least one answer video that I'll post later this week or early next.

Next, Rutgers Biologist Analyzes Glacial Microorganisms for Climate Change Clues.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013

CAMDEN — On the surface, glaciers are massive bodies of ice that continue to slowly carve out the Earth’s landscape, but what goes unseen beneath these frozen rivers are entire communities of microbial life that could be playing a key role in glacial melting.

“Glaciers are an interesting thing to study to try and understand an entire ecosystem in its full complexity, from microorganisms to algae to animals,” says Andrey Grigoriev, a professor of biology at Rutgers–Camden.  “We want to determine what species live there and to figure out the structure of the glacial ecosystem.”

In the first stage of his project, Grigoriev is taking an intimate look at Alaska’s Byron Glacier, located some 48 miles south of Anchorage (and more than 4,000 miles from Rutgers–Camden).

Rutgers scientists aren't the only ones from campuses on the campaign trail studying the effect of climate change on glaciers.  New York University does as well in Antarctic Reseach Details Ice Melt Below Massive Glacier.
September 12, 2013

An expedition of international scientists to the far reaches of Antarctica’s remote Pine Island Glacier has yielded exact measurements of an undersea process glaciologists have long called the “biggest source of uncertainty in global sea level projections.”

The research, which appears in the latest issue of Science magazine, was conducted by scientists at New York University’s Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, Calif., the University of Alaska, Pennsylvania State University, NASA, and the British Antarctic Survey.

The article details the landmark results of the Pine Island Glacier expedition, giving scientists an extensive look beneath the ice at one of the most remote research sites on the planet – a site whose fate could affect the lives of millions.

“Intensive melting under the Pine Island ice shelf, as observed in our study, could potentially lead to the speed up and ultimate break-up of the ice shelf,” says David Holland of NYU’s Courant Institute and one of the paper’s co-authors. “That’s important, as this ice shelf is currently holding back inland ice, and without that restraining force, the Pine Island catchment basin could further contribute to global sea-level rise.”

Not to be outdone, the other research university in NYC, Columbia University posted Summer Heat Wave May Have Triggered Landslide on Lonely Alaskan Glacier.
September 10, 2013

A massive landslide in Alaska’s snowy Wrangell-St. Elias mountain range in July may have been caused by a summer heat wave making some slopes more vulnerable to collapse, says the scientist who first discovered the avalanche.

“Most of the big landslides that I’ve worked on in Alaska from 1999 to now have been south-facing, summer-time failures,” Colin Stark, a geophysicist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory told NASA’s Earth Observatory. “My suspicion is that this landslide was probably caused by sustained daytime warming and progressive melting of rock permafrost.”

The slide let loose some 35 million tons of rock and debris, a collapse that registered on the global seismic network and was detected within hours by Stark and his colleagues Göran Ekström and Clément Hilbert from the Lamont campus in Palisades, N.Y. The July 25 landslide was confirmed by pictures taken by NASA satellites before and after the event.

I told my students in Environmental Science this week that climate change would be most visible near the poles.  This research shows what I said is true.

Gas prices gliding down to begin Autumn

I made two predictions in Looks like gas prices have dead cat bounces, too.  The first already came true.

Saturday afternoon, the local station had already dropped its price to the Detroit average of $3.53.  Yesterday, it lowered it some more to $3.45, back where it was when this all started.  With that kind of price history, I doubt the three stations down the block moved a cent.  I expect to see all four of them at $3.45 or less this morning when I drive past.

That's exactly where they were, $3.45.

The second still looks good.

As for the relevant average gas prices, the national average is currently $3.49, Michigan is between $3.55 and $3.56, and Detroit is at $3.50.  All of them are going down like parachutes.  In this environment, combined with the neighborhood stations usually selling regular at up to a dime below the Detroit average, I wouldn't be surprised to see them selling gas at $3.39 within a week.

Tuesday morning, all of them dropped their prices to $3.44.  I know, a penny isn't much, but it's exactly the kind of incremental step down I expect right now.

As for the three averages I track, Econobrowser shows the national average at $3.47, the Michigan average at $3.49, and the Detroit average at $3.45.  The metro area average is below the previous low, and the statewide average is nearly there, based on the levels I described when the latest dead cat bounce began.

The day I posted Professor Farnsworth, the average prices in the state and metro area bottomed out at $3.46 and $3.48, respectively...

Locally, the dead cat has stopped bouncing and it's about to go thud in the rest of the state.  I eagerly await hearing the echo of it hitting bottom and then sliding downslope for the rest of the year.

Health news from campuses on the campaign trail

I have been under the weather for the past week and went to see my primary care physician today (yesterday by the time this entry posts).  To reflect this, I'm posting health care and health research news from campuses on the campaign trail.  All stories were originally included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (LADEE launched) and Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (IgNobel Prizes).

I begin with Rutgers Today on YouTube: Revolutionizing Urban Healthcare

Cindy Sickora runs a mobile healthcare program in Newark. Suzanne Willard heads a wellness center. Together, two leaders of Rutgers nursing schools are striving to make healthcare accessible to city residents, who are among the most underserved in the nation.

Follow over the jump for more stories.

WXYZ on the contest for Detroit Mayor for the first week of autumn

WXYZ has the latest poll numbers in the contest for Mayor of Detroit.  No surprise, Mike Duggan leading Detroit's mayoral race.


Of all the above man-on-the-street reactions, the one I found most informative was the one about Benny Napoleon cleaning up Detroit's street gangs.  Those names are notorious, but they're also history.  At least I know who to thank for that small victory against crime in Detroit.

Next, WXYZ editorial director Chuck Stokes offers his expert opinion on the poll in EXCLUSIVE POLL: Duggan leading Napoleon.


Before the primary, this election was Napoleon's to lose.  It looks like he's losing it.  Now, it's Duggan's to lose or win.

Finally, as I wrote in Election news from campuses on the campaign trail:

I'm waiting for the results of two recounts, Detroit's and New York City's, to be announced.  Detroit's recount will not change the candidates on the general election ballot; it's another stunt by Tom Barrow, hopefully his last as a politician.

As I described in NYC general election matchups set, the NYC recount is long over.  Detroit's is still dragging on, as shown in Detroit mayoral primary challenge.


Barrow really thinks there are enough fraudulent signatures to change the outcome of the primary.  No, there aren't.  Besides, even if there were, the election results have been certified and the only person who could possibly benefit, Lisa Howse, has already endorsed Duggan.  Barrow is wasting his time and money if he thinks it will change the election and improve people's opinion of him.

Crossposted to Michigan Liberal as Duggan is leading Napoleon 2 to 1 and Barrow is still contesting write-in votes in the recount.

Looks like gas prices have dead cat bounces, too

When I described the local gas prices in Gas prices in Michigan bouncing off a bottom, I displayed some pessimism.

I have been loath to break out Professor Farnsworth this year for low gas prices and what's transpired since I posted Good news on gas prices from Professor Farnsworth supports my usual reluctance.  The next day, the corner station raised its price to $3.65.  The three stations down the block held at $3.45.  Yesterday morning, the corner station undercut their price, selling regular at $3.44.  That's lower than before the Syria fear premium took effect.  Yesterday afternoon, the price went up again, this time to $3.59.  I didn't see what the three stations down the block were charging for gas, but I suspect they went up, too.  Why?  Econobrowser has an answer.

It turns out that prices all over metro Detroit and Michigan have risen in the past few days.  The day I posted Professor Farnsworth, the average prices in the state and metro area bottomed out at $3.46 and $3.48, respectively.  Prices in both areas immediately shot up, peaking in Michigan yesterday at $3.59.  In Detroit, they're currently plateauing at $3.53.  In that kind of environment, I expect all the neighborhood stations will follow suit, not just the corner station.

I should have been more optimistic.  Saturday afternoon, the local station had already dropped its price to the Detroit average of $3.53.  Yesterday, it lowered it some more to $3.45, back where it was when this all started.  With that kind of price history, I doubt the three stations down the block moved a cent.  I expect to see all four of them at $3.45 or less this morning when I drive past.

As for the relevant average gas prices, the national average is currently $3.49, Michigan is between $3.55 and $3.56, and Detroit is at $3.50.  All of them are going down like parachutes.  In this environment, combined with the neighborhood stations usually selling regular at up to a dime below the Detroit average, I wouldn't be surprised to see them selling gas at $3.39 within a week.

Politics, funny and dramatic, and horror in miniseries and variety shows

Time to cover the politics and fantasy in the rest of tonight's nominees.

Miniseries and TV Movies

There are two political shows and one horror show, which will have to stand in for fantasy and science fiction, among the nominees for this group of categories.

The most nominated political show is Political Animals, which is up for Best Miniseries and has two of its actresses, Sigourney Weaver and Ellen Burstyn, nominated for best female lead and best female supporting role.  I haven't seen it.  Too bad, as my wife and I would like it better than "American Horror Story: Asylum."  We watched it and couldn't finish it.  That means were probably won't be rooting for it, despite its many nominations, including Best Miniseries, Best Actress in a Leading role (Jessica Lange), Outstanding Actress in a Supporting Role (Sarah Paulson), and two nominations for Best Actor in a Supporting Role (both of whom, Bart Cromwell and Zachary Quinto, have played roles in Star Trek movies).  Neither series has any nominations for writing or directing.

The other political miniseries is "The Hour," a BBC America show up for Best Writing.

As for what I think will win, I'm betting on "Behind the Candelabra" to win the most awards among miniseries.  It has nominees in all categories except those involving actresses.  Given the subject matter, that should come as no surprise.

Variety Shows

This category also shows that politics and politicians are funny, with "Real Time with Bill Maher," "The Colbert Report," and "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" nominated for awards.  All three are up for Best Variety Show and Best Writing for a Variety Show, and "The Colbert Report" and "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" are up for Best Directing in the category.  My wife and I watch all three shows and love them all.  Of them, my favorite is "Real Time with Bill Maher."  May the atheist stoner's show win.

That's it for tonight until all the winners are announced.

Funny politicians and scientists on television

I told my readers to "Stay tuned for my thoughts on the comedies, variety shows, and reality shows" in Politics and fantasy at the Emmy Awards: Dramas.  Here's to keeping that promise, beginning with the comedies.

While there is at least one critically acclaimed comedy about politicians in "Veep," there is no equivalent fantasy.  Instead, there is fiction about scientists and science fiction, "The Big Bang Theory."  The latter will have to do.

ETA: both shows are up for best comedy series.  I think both will lose to "30 Rock."  Next year.

"Veep" and "The Big Bang Theory" each have three acting nominations, although they're competing against each other in only one category, Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Role, where Mayim Bialik, who plays Amy Farrah Fowler in "The Big Bang Theory," is facing Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer on "Veep."  Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tony Hale of "Veep" is up for female comedy lead and male supporting role, while Jim Parsons and Bob Newhart are contending for male comedy lead, and comedy male guest role for "The Big Bang Theory."  My wife and I are watching "Veep," so we're rooting for that show.  Neither of us are watching "The Big Bang Theory," even though we're both scientists.  Maybe that should change.  That written, I don't think either of those shows will outperform "Girls," which my wife and I have watched and don't think is particularly funny.  Too bad.

Neither of these shows earned a single nomination for writing or directing, which probably shows how strong the acting is in both of them.

I'll return with my thoughts about the rest of the shows presently.  Until then, here is someone noted for being both funny and playing a scientist on television, Neil Patrick Harris, on tonight's show.

Go behind the scenes of host Neil Patrick Harris' magical photo shoot for the '65th Primetime Emmy Awards.'

Politics and fantasy at the Emmy Awards: Dramas

In the spirit of Oscar hype, with emphasis on science fiction, fantasy, and local subjects, it's time to go through the nominees for tonight's show as well as the winners of last week's awards ceremony to pick out the political and fantasy films in each category, along with other nominees I like.

Among the nominated drama series, the only two series I've watched this season have been "Game of Thrones" and "House of Cards."  Of the two, my wife and I preferred "House of Cards."  The sex and violence in "Game of Thrones" becomes excessive at times.  Then again, it's HBO; sex and violence is what they do best.  There is one more political series among the nominees, "Homeland," but I doubt it's better than "House of Cards."  I suspect neither of the shows we've watched will beat "Breaking Bad," which should edge out "Downton Abbey" and "Mad Men."

The political shows starred actors and actresses who were nominated for leading roles in dramas; "Game of Thrones" had no leading roles in these categories.  "House of Cards" featured both Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright.  Both Damian Lewis and Claire Danes earned nominations for their work in "Homeland."  Jeff Daniels was the lone lead nominated from "The Newsroom," while Kerry Washington balanced out the sexes among political series for "Scandal."  Of all the above, I preferred Kevin Spacey, while my wife preferred Jeff Daniels.  I think Spacey did a better job of acting, while Daniels protrayed the much more sympathetic character.  That written, I doubt it will matter, as I'd put money on Bryan Cranston of "Breaking Bad."  As for the actresses, I have my doubts about Wright winning.  She wasn't even the most compelling actress in the series; Kate Mara who played Zoe Barnes was, and she wasn't even nominated for a supporting role.  As for who will win, honestly I don't know; my intuition says Elisabeth Moss of "Mad Men," but I'm not invested in that prediction in the slightest.

The supporting acting nominations were much more balanced in their representation of fantasy and politics, as both "Game of Thrones" and "Homeland" had two nominations each.  Of Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister and Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen, I think Dinklage has the better shot.  After all, he has won for that role before, while I think Clarke and her role still have their best days ahead of them.  Mandy Patinkin and Morena Baccarin got the nods for "Homeland."  Patinkin is the better known actor, but I still think he'll lose out to Dinklage.  On the other hand, I'd put money on Maggie Smith for her role in "Downton Abbey."

Guest acting nominations also show less balance between fantasy and politics, with Diana Rigg nominated for a guest role in "Game of Thrones," while Jane Fonda and Margo Lessendale round out the nominees for guest roles in "The Newsroom" and "The Americans."  On the men's side, it's all politics, with Bobby Cannavale in "Boardwalk Empire," Rupert Friend in "Homeland," Dan Bucatinsky in "Scandal."  I'm rooting for Diana Rigg just because she's Diana Rigg, but I'd also be happy with Fonda.  On the men's side, I like Nathan Lane in "The Good Wife," but he's primarily a comic actor, so I don't know if he's that good in a drama.

"Game of Thrones" and "Homeland" both earned nominations for writing, but I'd favor one of the two "Breaking Bad" episodes instead.  The political shows nearly swept the directing nominations, with Tim Van Patten for "Boardwalk Empire", Lesli Linka Glatter for "Homeland," and David Fincher for"House of Cards" all earning nods.  Fincher is a ringer, but as far as I'm concerned, he should win in a walk.  Whether he will is another matter.

Looking at the drama nominations, I may be rooting for "House of Cards," but I'm impressed by how strong "Homeland" is, with nominees in eight of nine categories, more categories than any other series, including "Breaking Bad."  It may just be the best show on this season that my wife and I are not watching.  That may change.

Stay tuned for my thoughts on the comedies, variety shows, and reality shows.  Until then, enjoy the  Main Title Theme to House of Cards by Jeff Beal.

Happy Autumnal Equinox 2013

The Equinox arrives today at 4:44 P.M. EDT.  To mark the occasion, I present ScienceCasts: The Harvest Moon from Science at NASA.

The full Moon closest to the northern autumnal equinox is coming this week. Don't miss the Harvest Moon.

Happy Equinox!

Gas prices in Michigan bouncing off a bottom

I have been loath to break out Professor Farnsworth this year for low gas prices and what's transpired since I posted Good news on gas prices from Professor Farnsworth supports my usual reluctance.  The next day, the corner station raised its price to $3.65.  The three stations down the block held at $3.45.  Yesterday morning, the corner station undercut their price, selling regular at $3.44.  That's lower than before the Syria fear premium took effect.  Yesterday afternoon, the price went up again, this time to $3.59.  I didn't see what the three stations down the block were charging for gas, but I suspect they went up, too.  Why?  Econobrowser has an answer.

It turns out that prices all over metro Detroit and Michigan have risen in the past few days.  The day I posted Professor Farnsworth, the average prices in the state and metro area bottomed out at $3.46 and $3.48, respectively.  Prices in both areas immediately shot up, peaking in Michigan yesterday at $3.59.  In Detroit, they're currently plateauing at $3.53.  In that kind of environment, I expect all the neighborhood stations will follow suit, not just the corner station.

As for what's causing this, it's something happening in the region, but not nationally.  Average gas prices have also gone up this week in Indiana and Ohio, but not in Illinois or Wisconsin.  In fact, the latter two states are following the national trend of steadily decreasing gas prices with the current national average declining to $3.50 from Wednesday's $3.51 to $3.52.  The national prices are following the generally declining price of Brent Crude, which closed yesterday at $109.22.  That's more than three dollars below last Monday's $112.32.  The Syria fear premium is like Francisco Franco, still dead.  So, I know what it's not.  As for what it is, I suspect it's a refinery issue or other regional shortage, but I've found no coverage of it in the local media so far.  If I find out, I'll post the news.

ETA: I found a story in the Grand Haven Tribune that confirms my hypothesis.

There are several reasons for the uptick, according to Gas Buddy and AAA analysts. Among them, particularly for our region, are two Midwest refineries undergoing upgrades so they can refine sandy crude oil from Canada.

In Detroit, the Marathon Co. has shut down for more than two months to connect its newer multi-billion-dollar refinery equipment to its older facility. BP is also working to expand its refinery in Indiana, which will also require a brief shutdown later in the year.

The annual switch-over to the winter gasoline blends also creates a short-term problem with partial refinery shutdowns as the change is made.

I was right--refinery issues in the Michigan-Indiana-Ohio area.

Storms, shots, and snakes: environmental news from Reuters

The same Overnight News Digest that included the news I recycled into Movie news for Talk Like a Pirate Day also contained two stories with an environmental angle.  Here they are with two environmentally themed videos from Reuters for added value.

First, Killer storms savage Mexico.


This video accompanied Manuel lashes northwest Mexico as storm misery spreads by Lizbeth Diaz and Anahi Rama.

(Reuters) - Tropical Storm Manuel lashed Mexico's northwest coast with heavy rains on Thursday, prompting evacuations and adding to flash floods that have unleashed chaos across Mexico and killed at least 97 people.

Storms have inundated vast areas of Mexico since late last week, wrecking roads, destroying bridges and triggering landslides that buried homes and their occupants. Roads became raging rapids in the Pacific resort of Acapulco, stranding some 40,000 tourists.

Emergency services said heavy rains were beating down on the northwestern state of Sinaloa and that hundreds of people had been evacuated from coastal communities.

Next, Greenpeace video shows activists held at gunpoint.

Greenpeace releases video they say shows its activists were held at gunpoint before being arrested during their protest at a Russian arctic oil platform. Linda So reports.

Finally, something downright odd, if not any less serious, as Daniel Trotta reports New York town finds 850 snakes in man's home.

(Reuters) - Authorities in the New York town of Shirley found 850 snakes, including two illegal 6-foot-long (2-meter) Burmese pythons, in the home and garage of an animal control officer suspected of dealing in the reptiles, local media reported.

Shirley and Suffolk County officers raided the home on Thursday, Newsday of Long Island reported, citing town officials and publishing a photo of officers holding the pythons.

I wonder if we can trade him for the Greenpeace activists. :-)

Movie news for Talk Like a Pirate Day

I realized today that I had some appropriate news for Talk Like a Pirate Day in Overnight News Digest: Fast Fill-in Edition.  In fact, it's sort of good news, but only sort of.  See for yourself in Disney and 'Pirates' producer Bruckheimer to end film deal by Lisa Richwine of Reuters.

(Reuters) - The Walt Disney Co and Jerry Bruckheimer, the producer behind the blockbuster "Pirates of the Caribbean" franchise and the summer flop "The Lone Ranger," will end their long-running film deal next year, the media company announced on Thursday.

The company and Bruckheimer decided not to renew their current deal which gives Disney first-look rights to the producer's films, according to a statement from Disney. They will continue working together on various projects, including a fifth installment in the "Pirates of the Caribbean" franchise.

Last week, Disney announced it would delay the release of the fifth "Pirates" movie, which had been scheduled to open in theaters in July 2015. No new date was set.
...
The partnership dating back to the 1990s produced 27 movies, including several big hits for Disney. The four "Pirates" films starring Johnny Depp have generated more than $3.7 billion in worldwide ticket sales, according to the website Box Office Mojo. Bruckheimer also produced for Disney the "National Treasure" series and dramas including "Con Air" and "Pearl Harbor".

Bruckheimer's most recent Disney release, "The Lone Ranger," flopped at the box office after its July release. Disney has projected it will lose up to $190 million on the film.

Between the acquisition of Lucasfilm and the Star Wars franchise and the bombing of "The Lone Ranger," I'm not surprised by this news.  It looks like Disney has decided to make Episode VII the tentpole for the summer after next, not another sequel to a completed trilogy.  I can't say I blame them.  At least there will still be a sequel.  That's what makes this sort of good news instead of merely bad news.

Now, it's time to listen to Johnny Depp as Captain Jack Sparrow talk like a pirate as he asks "but why is all the rum gone?"

Jack and Elizabeth have been left on the same island that Jack was once mutinied on by his original crew. In order to get off Elizabeth creates a smoke signal so that the royal navy will eventually see it, while looking for her. Jack when wakes up and notices what shes doing and goes about his whole "why's the rum gone" deal, lol, eventually realizes that she was right and there'll "be no living with her after this."

Fast food worker strikes from CNN Money and Occupy Detroit

I made a promise at the end of CNN Money on income inequality.

Tonight, I'll conclude this series by embedding the clip about organizing fast food workers and showing how it's played out locally through Occupy Detroit.  Stay tuned.

Sorry, I got sidetracked, as I instead posted Overnight News Digest: Fast Fill-in Edition on Daily Kos last night.  Instead, I'm following through this morning.

CNN Money's Annalyn Kurtz asked Will fast food unions be the next movement?

Robert Reich says striking low-wage workers need collective action and bargaining, but our other panelists are skeptical of union power.

That reminds me of what I wrote in Occupy Detroit and others campaign against petcoke.

Occupy Detroit has continued to do good work, including documenting the fast-food workers strike last month.  I'll be sure to cover that in a future entry.

This is that "future entry."  Watch 5-10-13 Detroit's fast food workers strike for a living wage.

Good Jobs Now, Michigan United and SEIU came out in support of fast food workers across the Detroit area as they went on strike, demanding $15/hr. to bring them out of poverty and give the economy a much needed shot in the arm.

I'll have more about the coverage of the fast food workers striking later.  Right now, it's time for me to go to work.

CNN Money on income inequality

I concluded CNN Money on Occupy Wall Street two years later by writing "stay tuned for more from CNN Money on income inequality."  This morning, I present two clips from CNN Money's Annalyn Kurtz show featuring former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, former Lehman Brothers VP Lawence McDonald, and Occupy Wall Street protester Mark Bray about income inequality.

The first asks Why is the U.S.A. so unequal?

With higher income inequality than in other developed economies, is the U.S. safety net broken, or is it to blame?

I'm with Reich and Bray.  The problem is that wages are too low, not that the safety net is too comfortable.

The second asks Who's to blame for income inequality?

From Wall Street to Washington, our panelists list a number of factors contributing to income inequality.

Again, I agree with Reich and Bray.  Income inequality is a political problem at both ends of the economic spectrum.  The effect of big money in politics, which was mentioned in the previous entry in this series, is the major issue for the Coffee Party.  As such, it's an issue for me.

Tonight, I'll conclude this series by embedding the clip about organizing fast food workers and showing how it's played out locally through Occupy Detroit.  Stay tuned.

CNN Money on Occupy Wall Street two years later

In CNN Money on Lehman Brothers five years later, I pointed out that this week was the second anniversary of Occupy Wall Street and to "stay tuned for more clips...discussing Occupy Wall Street."  It's time to follow through.*

First, a retrospective from the producers of "99%: The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film" about how Occupy flamed out, but issues still burning.

Two years after the Occupy Wall Street protests started, documentary filmmakers discuss why their new film on the movement still carries weight.

Next, former Occupy Wall Street protester Mark Bray joins CNN Money's Annalyn Kurtz and her other guests Labor Secretary Robert Reich and former Lehman Brothers VP Lawence McDonald to explain Why Occupy Wall Street fizzled out.

Did the anarchists kill the Occupy Wall Street movement with a lack of organization? Our Occupy panelist defends the success of the protests.

Stay tuned for more from CNN Money on income inequality and organizing fast-food workers.

*To read last year's retrospective, click on Occupy Wall Street one year later.  It has links to all my entries about Occupy Wall Street from my first until I started blogging about Occupy Detroit.

Good news on gas prices from Professor Farnsworth

I concluded Syria fear premium almost invisible two days ago with my final criterion for recognizing an end to the current crisis at the pump.

As I remarked on Friday, the national, state, and metro area prices are all below where they were before the latest price spike and the neighborhood prices are only four cents above where they were before the latest price spike began.  Those four cents are the only reason I haven't declared the current gas price spike over.

Those four cents disappeared today as all four neighborhood stations resumed selling regular at $3.45.  The Syria fear premium is no more.  Time to break out Professor Farnsworth for the first time since Meijer opened in Detroit this July.


MLive has even more good news about gas prices today, announcing Michigan sees nation's largest annual drop in average gas price, analyst predicts further decrease.

The statewide average price is $3.47 per gallon, but it was selling for less than $3.25 in some areas on Wednesday morning, according to Tom Kloza, GasBuddy.com's chief oil analyst.

Michigan's average price is down about 50 cents compared to one year ago, the largest year-over-year drop nationwide, Kloza said, adding that the gap may widen this month.
...
AAA pegs Michigan's average gas price at $3.50 on Wednesday, which makes it the 23rd lowest in the country. Hawaii has the highest average price of $4.32 while South Carolina has the lowest average of $3.18 per gallon.

The national average is $3.51 per gallon, down from $3.86 the same time last year.

The best news?

Michigan gas prices could continue to drop, according to analysts with GasBuddy.com.

That's because of the end of summer driving season, the replacement of summer blends with cheaper winter blends, and, of course, the end of the Syria fear premium.  Yes, this really is "good news, everyone!"

CNN Money on Lehman Brothers five years later

This week marks the anniversaries of two events I've written about in this blog, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the beginning of Occupy Wall Street.  CNN Money has been covering both stories.  In this entry, I present two clips about Lehman Brothers five years later.

First, a former Lehman employee describes How I bounced back after Lehman collapsed.

Lynn Gray worked at Lehman Brothers for 11 years. Hear her story of the fateful day 5 years ago, and how she was able to start a business at the age of 60.

Next, Annalyn Kurtz asks Since Lehman, has Wall St. culture changed?  Her panel of former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, former Lehman Brothers VP Lawence McDonald, and and former Occupy Wall Street protester Mark Bray answer.

Our financial panelist says there is a lot less risk taking on Wall Street, but everyone agrees the fundamentals of the system have not changed.

Stay tuned for more clips from this show discussing Occupy Wall Street, income inequality, and the next labor movement, organizing fast food workers.

ETA:  For those of you coming here from Kunstler's blog, here are the links to the rest of the entries in this series.

• CNN Money on Occupy Wall Street two years later
• CNN Money on income inequality
• Fast food worker strikes and organizing

NYC general election matchups set

I began Election news from campuses on the campaign trail with a program note.

I'm waiting for the results of two recounts, Detroit's and New York City's, to be announced.  Detroit's recount will not change the candidates on the general election ballot; it's another stunt by Tom Barrow, hopefully his last as a politician.  On the other hand, New York City's will have real consequences.  If Bill DeBlasio gets above 40% in the recount, he goes on to the general election.  If not, he faces a run-off.  The outcome should be announced this week and I promise to get back to you all with it.

I didn't have to wait for the recount for the outcome.  This morning, runner-up Bill Thompson conceded.

HE'S OUT: Nearly a week after de Blasio received more than 40% of the Democratic primary vote, Bill Thompson stepped aside. 'Today I am proud to stand next to a great New Yorker and throw my full support behind him.'

As for why, the New York Daily News explained that Bill Thompson concedes mayoral race for the Democratic good.

Bill Thompson, in his concession to Bill de Blasio, gave the Democratic Party the unity it needed with the hopes of taking back City Hall after 20 years of Republican reign.
...
Unofficial tallies showed de Blasio with 40.3% of the vote, far ahead of Thompson’s 26% and enough to avoid a runoff.

Even if a recount pushed de Blasio below the magic 40%, Thompson’s strategists saw their guy’s chances of winning a runoff a long shot. Only Republican candidate Joe Lhota, they figured, would benefit from several more weeks of Democratic division.

So the NYC Mayor's contest is set.  So is the Comptroller's, as Eliot Spitzer Loses To Scott Stringer In NYC Comptroller Race.

In a stunning rebuke, former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer lost his bid to become the Democratic nominee for city comptroller.

Poll results Tuesday night showed Spitzer losing to Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer. With 93 percent of precincts reporting, Stringer beat Spitzer by 3.5 percent.

The Democratic nominee is virtually assured of winning the general election in early November and becoming the city's chief financial officer.

So much for Spitzer and Weiner staging comebacks in New York.

I concluded Election news from campuses on the campaign trail by mentioning Sam Wang.

With Nate going to ESPN, Wang and Sabato may be the leaders in forecasting the next election cycle.

It turned out that Wang weighed in on both the Mayor's and Comptroller's contests.

In today’s New York City Democratic primary, front-runner (and progressive) Bill DeBlasio has drawn 41.9+/-1.3% of decided voters (n=5 polls since late August). The threshold for avoiding a runoff is 40%, and if (and that’s an if!) polls are any indication, he will reach this threshold with a 90% probability. Note that primaries are harder than usual to predict since voters can be volatile.
...
In the other high-visibility primary, for comptroller, Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer has largely closed the gap with former governor Eliot Spitzer. However, Spitzer still leads by 2.0 +/- 1.7% (n=3 September polls). That puts Spitzer’s win probability at 80%, in knife-edge territory.

Wang ended up being 1 for 2.

Aftermath:... DeBlasio currently has 40.3%, so a mayoral runoff appears to be avoided, as I predicted. Stringer wins comptroller – I was on the wrong side of that. However, as I’ve said before, with my methods, anything in the 20-80% probability range is a knife-edge situation. The comptroller race was such an example.

Keep up the good work Sam, and always learn from your mistakes.

Syria fear premium almost invisible

In Syria fear premium almost gone, I included my closing thought from Syria fear premium fades some more.

Here's to hoping the fear premium fades away and prices return to where they were at the start of the last week of August.

Yeah, right.  We should be so lucky.

We're not that lucky, but we're getting there.

We're still getting there, even if we haven't quite arrived.  Yesterday, I saw the the corner station had dropped from $3.55 to $3.49.  This morning, as I expected, I saw that the three stations were selling gas at the same price.  I suppose they were probably there first, but I wasn't up to walking the three long blocks to find out, as I was coming down with a cold yesterday.  Just the same, I don't regret filling up my tank on Friday.  I really didn't expect the price to keep falling, as there was--and is--still a chance that the Syria Fear Premium can come roaring back.

Just the same, I still have no reason to complain about the price.  According to Econobrowser, the local price continues to be below the national average of $3.545, the Michigan average of $3.50, and the Detroit average of $3.54.  It's also sixteen cents below the expected national average of $3.65 given the current Brent crude price of $112.32, thirty-one cents below Friday's $112.63.

As I remarked on Friday, the national, state, and metro area prices are all below where they were before the latest price spike and the neighborhood prices are only four cents above where they were before the latest price spike began.  Those four cents are the only reason I haven't declared the current gas price spike over.

Election news from campuses on the campaign trail

I'm waiting for the results of two recounts, Detroit's and New York City's, to be announced.  Detroit's recount will not change the candidates on the general election ballot; it's another stunt by Tom Barrow, hopefully his last as a politician.  On the other hand, New York City's will have real consequences.  If Bill DeBlasio gets above 40% in the recount, he goes on to the general election.  If not, he faces a run-off.  The outcome should be announced this week and I promise to get back to you all with it.

In the meantime, I present two items of election news from campuses on the campaign trail from the past two weeks of Overnight News Digests.  First, Rutgers University has the latest in the contest for Governor of New Jersey in Christie Maintains High Ratings, but Voters Still Disapprove of his Performance on Top Problems.

More than half of voters continue to express no opinion on Buono

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – A year after his response to Hurricane Sandy sent Gov. Chris Christie’s ratings into record territory, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds New Jersey registered voters continue to embrace him, if not quite as strongly. Christie’s 66 percent positive job rating remains the envy of most politicians, even though it has dropped four points since June. During the same period, disapproval of Christie has increased six points to 31 percent, still well below its pre-Sandy highs.

“It was inevitable that the governor’s ratings would drop from their high point during the run-up to an election, but Christie continues to bask in broad support,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University.

Even as voters continue to report strong general approval of Christie’s performance, they also pan his specific efforts on the economy and taxes, seen as the two most important issues facing the state. Only 42 percent approve of Christie’s handling of the economy and jobs, unchanged since June, but the 34 percent approval of his performance on taxes is a seven-point decline over that period. Regardless, disapproval of specific issues is not significantly affecting overall voter support for Christie.

I personally don't care much for Christie--I think he's a bully--but he's a very skilled politician and about as close to the center as any major elected official in his party.  As much as I'd like for him to lose the election in two months, I just don't see it happening.

Next, the University of Virginia featured the two other stars of election forecasting last year, besides Nate Silver, in U.Va.’s Sabato and Princeton’s Wang Discuss the Statistics Behind Election Forecasting.

U.Va. politics professor Larry Sabato and Princeton University neuroscientist Sam Wang discussed their different yet incredibly accurate methods of  prediction and analysis of political elections in a panel discussion held Thursday evening. “The Art(s) and Science(s) of Election Forecasting” celebrated U.Va.’s newest interdisciplinary minor, statistical analysis of social behavior, offered in the College of Arts & Sciences.

Sabato is the director of the U.Va. Center for Politics. His website, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, has accurately predicted 98 percent of Senate, House and gubernatorial races in the past four election cycles. He uses statistical models, information from select polls and expert analysis to predict election outcomes.

Wang, an associate professor of molecular biology at Princeton, used his expertise in probability and statistical analysis to found the Princeton Election Consortium in 2004. The site compiles aggregate data from all available state polls to provide “snapshots” of the current public opinion and predict elections. Wang also provides commentary on the results.

Wang actually beat Silver in his Senate predictions.  Silver thought that the poll results wouldn't hold based on the partisan lean in North Dakota, while Wang went with the polls and predicted a Heidi Heitkamp win.  She did.  With Nate going to ESPN, Wang and Sabato may be the leaders in forecasting the next election cycle.

Food news from campuses on the campaign trail

For the past two weeks, I've been featuring "the research stories from the public universities in each of the states having elections for federal or state office this year plus stories from all research universities in major cities having municipal elections" on the Saturday editions of Overnight News Digest.  As a result, I have lots of stories on topic for this blog.  I've already featured some of them in Sports news for a football Saturday, The science of lying from LSU and Discovery News, Friday the 13th research a bit late, More on Friday the 13th from Rutgers, and Floods in Colorado from ABC News and University of Colorado.  Now it's time to start sharing the rest in theme posts.

Tonight's theme is food, and I begin with two videos from Rutgers Today on YouTube.

First, The Science Behind Candy.

If you think you like candy or ice cream just because they're sweet, you're missing the science behind the treats. Rutgers food science professors Richard Ludescher and Beverly Tepper say we're drawn to more than just the sweet taste. Flavor and especially texture influence our likes and dislikes as well. We also checked in with Rutgers alums and owners of Thomas Sweet Ice Cream and Chocolate, Michael and Jennifer Schnur, to talk about the role science plays in their business.

Next, The Great Tomato Tasting.

If you love tomatoes, heaven is located in New Jersey at least one day a year. Each summer Rutgers hosts the Great Tomato Tasting at Snyder Research Farm. Visitors feast on more than 80 varieties of heirloom and hybrid tomatoes with unique names such as "Snow White," "Green Doctors," "Dad's Sunset" and "Power Pops." Tasters also get to sample apples, peaches, basil and honey.

Finally, New York University describes how Steinhardt's Bentley developes TED Studies curriculum on "sustainable consumption" for Western diet.

Half of all Americans consider environmental impacts when deciding whether or not to buy a product, according to a survey released this summer by Yale and George Mason universities.

But we show greater dedication to a method of food consumption that runs afoul of the best sustainability practices: the Standard American, or Western, Diet.

“Westerners are eating enormous quantities of sugar, beef, chicken, wheat and dairy products, and washing it all down with an amazing array of caffeinated and alcoholic beverages,” writes NYU Steinhardt’s Amy Bentley, an associate professor in the Department of Nutrition, Food Studies, and Public Health. “Americans in particular consume over twice the amount of solid fats and added sugars recommended for daily intake, and they consume far fewer fruits, vegetables, legumes, and whole grains than those who lived in earlier eras—and less than experts recommend for optimal health.”

Here's to our diet being both more nutritious and more sustainable.

Floods in Colorado from ABC News and University of Colorado

I wrote about my hopes for the Colorado recalls in Elections to watch today.

Unlike NYC and Toledo, where I really don't have a preferred result, I strongly hope the recalls fail.

They succeeded.  I'm disappointed enough to change the subject to another disaster afflicting Colorado, one caused by bad weather and most likely climate change, the flooding around Boulder and other towns in the north of the state.  ABC News gives the big picture in Colorado Floods: Crews Rescue Families, Animals.

Emergency responders help those trapped by the devastating flooding.

Wow.  That's a very comprehensive report for network TV news exploring not only the human rescue effort and the weather, but also the use of drones and the rescue of people's livestock an pets.  I highly recommend watching the entire 7+ minutes.

The floods were bad enough that the University of Colorado at Boulder announced Friday CU-Fresno State football game postponed.

Saturday’s football game between the University of Colorado and Fresno State has been postponed, university officials decided Friday morning.

After careful consideration, CU-Boulder Chancellor Philip P. DiStefano has decided that the university will not hold a football game tomorrow, and that school officials will discuss a possible make-up date for the game.

“Even though the weather is improving, Boulder is still designated as a national emergency site,” the chancellor said. “Our community is hurting. Many of our students are displaced from their homes, including many of our student-athletes. This is not an appropriate time for us to hold a game that would put pressure on the community, both in terms of security/emergency personnel, but also in diverting attention from people in need.”
...
This is the third game in CU history that has been postponed; in 1963, the CU-Air Force game in Colorado Springs was delayed two weeks after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy; and in 2001, CU was set to travel to Pullman to play Washington State on Sept. 15 but all college games were called off after the terrorist attacks on 9/11. That game was made up in the 2004 season but was played in Seattle.

Note how rare an event cancelling a football game is.  It's an example of messing with people's entertainment, and Americans are loath to have to do that.

That's not the only closure or cancellation on campus.  The day before, the university announced Campus still closed; select family housing units remain under evacuation overnight.

The University of Colorado Boulder will remain closed through Friday as rain continues to fall and more storms are expected through tomorrow.

With the current weather conditions and the continuing possibility of flash flooding, the evacuations of the Faculty/Staff housing unit, Athens Court and the ground floor of Newton Court will remain in place. The evacuation has impacted 220 units and 355 family housing residents.
...
“I want to assure parents and others that we have not had any reports of missing students or serious injuries,” said Louise Vale, Vice Chancellor for Administration. “The majority of our campus is well above the flood plain and is not at risk of flash flooding. We want to make sure the buildings are safe before we open them.”

The current assessment is that 25 percent of campus buildings have some form of water damage, including seepage in basements. Contractors have been brought in to pump out water from the basements of Fleming, Norlin and Electrical Engineering.
...
All events on Thursday have been cancelled and many will be cancelled Friday as well, including the Pearl Street Stampede. Ralphie’s Corral prior to the Saturday football game has also been cancelled.

That's just Boulder.  I haven't yet checked the news from the other university towns in the state such as Denver, Fort Collins, Greeley, and Golden to find out about the damage and cancelled events there.  I might do that later.  Until then, everyone out there stay safe and dry.

More on Friday the 13th from Rutgers

It looks like I'm not done with the Friday the 13th research a bit late.  Here are some more stories from Rutgers University that I included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (IgNobel Prizes) on Daily Kos.

Friday the 13th Superstitions

Feeling superstitious today? From avoiding black cats to stepping on a crack, superstitions exist everywhere - especially on Friday the 13th. Watch our video to hear what Rutgers students have to say about superstitions and find out why one student won't whistle indoors.

Do You Suffer from Triskaidekaphobia?
Friday the 13th as a day of ill luck is one of America's most popular superstitions
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
By Carla Cantor

Do you suffer from triskaidekaphobia? If so, then you’re probably not looking forward September 13, which falls on a Friday this year.

Triskaidekaphobia, which means the fear of Friday the 13th, is derived from Greek words tris meaning "3," kai meaning "and," deka meaning "10"  – and it's extremely common.  With September 13 around the corner, Rutgers Today spoke with Mike Petronko, director of the Anxiety Disorders Clinic of the Graduate School of Applied and Professional Psychology  at Rutgers about Friday the 13th and the psychology of superstition.

I'll likely recycle these stories in December, too.

Friday the 13th research a bit late

Here's something appropriate for yesterday that I only found today.  Better late than never.

University of Cincinnati: Friday the 13th and Other Bad-Luck Beliefs Actually Do Us Some Good
It's here – Friday the 13th. There will be another in December. A UC culture expert provides pointers as to why such superstitions prove so powerful and how they can actually serve a good purpose.
By: M.B. Reilly
Date: 9/9/2013 7:30:00 AM

In Western cultures, Friday was traditionally considered a day of bad luck, dating as far back as the 14th century, if not earlier – likely due to religious associations with the crucifixion.

And the number 13 has long been considered unlucky as well. According to University of Cincinnati popular culture expert Rebecca Borah, associate professor, English and comparative literature in the McMicken College of Arts and Sciences, 13 was considered unlucky by both pre-Christian and, later, Christian societies.

She stated, “The pre-Christian societies often noted the number 12 as representing completeness due to lunar cycles. So, 13 was a stepchild of a number. Later, a Christian overlay was added since the 13th apostle was Judas Iscariot.”

She added that it was in the early 1900s when we can find evidence where the two superstitions merged, and Friday the 13th emerged as a day of “especially bad karma.”

I might just recycle this story in December.

Speaking of recycling, the most read entry yesterday was Paraskevidekatriaphobia and Happy Apophis Day!  Like Jason Vorhees, that post never seems to die.

I got a smartphone today

Thanks to my wife, who gave me my birthday present early, I've now joined the legions of people around me who own a smartphone and can do more than just talk with their wireless devices.  Coincidentally, WXYZ posted Texting taking a back seat to photos and videos sent through smartphones tonight, showing what I'll doing with my present.


Yes, that's what I'm looking forward to.  Now I can text back to the people trying to communicate with the person who used to have my number that my name is not Earl.  After that, I can do what my wife does, send pictures to our daughter.

Of course, I'll have to be careful, as Bob Shepard of the University of Alabama, Birmingham, pointed out in Turning off technology.

Anyone not reading this on a tablet or smartphone probably has some sort of portable electronic device in their pocket or purse to stay connected.  Maybe too connected, say experts at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

“There is more and more evidence that our electronic devices can be addicting,” said Despina Stavrinos, Ph.D., an assistant professor of psychology at UAB. “Certainly our research shows they can be dangerous.”

Stavrinos runs the Translational Research for Injury Prevention Lab at UAB which studies distracted driving, particularly among teens.  She says people who text while driving are 23 times more likely to have a motor vehicle crash.

“We call texting while driving the perfect storm, as it takes your eyes off the road, your hands off the wheel and your mind off of concentrating on what you should be doing – which is driving,” she said. “But it’s not just texting that can be an issue. Checking e-mail, talking on the phone or accessing a map program can also be distracting and dangerous.”

In another coincidence, Kunstler posted Returning to the ‘Real’ — The virtual is not an adequate substitute for the authentic in which he excoriated all kinds of technology, including smartphones.

Personal computers, now including phones and tablets, prey on our genetic weakness for novelty and rob us of our waking hours when we might be doing more satisfying things than email.

He continues his rant over at Peak Prosperity.  He may get the people discontented with modern society excited, but I think this will have as much effect on the general public as his mini-rant about visual displays in cars, e.g., none.