Dueling predictions from Phil, Woody, and NOAA for Groundhog Day

Happy Groundhog Day! Without any further ado, I begin with ABC News reporting Punxsutawney Phil makes Groundhog Day prediction.

Legend has it that if he sees his shadow then winter will continue for another six weeks but if Punxsutawney Phil does not see his shadow spring will come early.

An early spring? Not so fast, as this is a Michigan-based blog and MLive reported Michigan's official groundhog predicts more winter.

Woody the Woodchuck made her prediction for the season during the Howell Nature Center’s annual Groundhog Day Celebration on Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Woody saw her shadow and was scared back into her den. Rep. Elissa Slotkin was on hand with a proclamation from Congress thanking the Howell Nature Center for it's work for the community.

MLive had more on its website, where the headline read There you have it. Michigan’s official groundhog says we’re stuck with winter.

Woody the Woodchuck, Michigan’s official groundhog who resides at the Howell Nature Center, began forecasting the weather in 1999. Since then, those at the center say she’s had a nearly 70% accuracy rate in her predictions.

This is one of the reasons I pay attention to Woody as well as Phil. Another is that her predictions are for Michigan, where I live, which could have entirely different weather than Pennsylvania, so both animals could be right.

Speaking of Phil, MLive had this to say.

Although he has a much longer track record, Punxsutawney Phil, on average, has only gotten his prediction right 30% of the time in the past 10 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

“It’s nice to be able to rave that we’re better than Punxsutawney,” Tina Bruce, Howell Nature Center CEO, said. “I just think Woody does a much better job for her residents and her state.”

This year, Phil did not see his shadow from his home in Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania meaning he thinks spring is coming early.

While the staff at the Howell Nature Center are actually observing Woody's behavior, I suspect the handlers at Gobbler's Knob are checking the long-range forecast instead. Follow over the jump for NOAA's U.S. climate outlook for February 2024.

Will the cold and snow return for an encore presentation or will the warmth seen at the end of January continue? Let’s see what NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts for the last month of winter.

On January 31, CPC released its updated monthly climate outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought across the United States for February 2024. The temperature outlook favors well above normal temperatures across much of the northern half of the nation, and near-average temperatures in parts of the Southwest and Southeast. The precipitation outlook favors well above average precipitation (rain and/or snow) across large parts of the southern, central, and southeastern parts of the country, with well below average precipitation favored in the Pacific Northwest and around the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and in the Northeast.

Above average temperatures and below average precipitation will certainly look like an early spring in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, so chalk one up for Phil and his handlers.

I suspect El Niño, which is one of the reasons 2023 was the hottest year on record, is a major reason for the warm weather and the forecast concurs.

El Niño remained strong during January across the tropical Pacific, and while it’s expected to begin weakening, impacts to the global climate will continue for at least the next few months, so it was again considered as the dominant teleconnection for the outlooks during February. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—a conjoined area of heavy rains and clear, calm skies that travel the tropics together as a couplet—was also active, with its heavy rains located over the western Pacific at the end of January. However, computer models have a large degree of uncertainty on the future evolution of the MJO at this time, so forecasters considered the MJO’s potential influence only during the first two weeks of the month.

So, is there any science supporting Woody's prediction that winter will return? According to Mark Torregrossa at MLive, yes, as he wrote New February forecast is no-brainer early, then returns to winter late.

NOAA’s discussion indicates they see model data showing a change around mid-February from a much warmer than normal pattern to a near-normal or slightly colder than normal pattern after the middle of the month.
... I would prepare yourself for a return to some sort of winter weather pattern for the second half of February. I don’t think it will be extremely colder than normal. Also given the weakness of the cold Up North this winter, I’d look for maybe a week of cold temperatures and then a return to warmer-than-normal temperatures.
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What does this all mean for us here in Michigan in February? The first half of the month is going to be really bizarre toward the spring side. Many days topping out in the 40s and 50s when normally we should be in the 20s and 30s. The second half of the month will probably have a handful of days not warming to the freezing mark, and likely a few periods of solid precipitation. The precipitation in this type of pattern would be rain or snow. Late February is also a favored time for freezing rain, but we won’t worry about that until we see it could happen a few days in advance.

Michigan may not have a true early spring (that will depend on what happens during March), but when winter returns, it should be mild. Also, remember that there is a 30% chance that Woody is wrong, and that she stayed outside for just under 30 seconds, the cutoff for the forecast, and she could have been scared by the noise and not her shadow. Also remember that this is superstition not science.

Enough about the holiday. Stay tuned for this year's edition of Marching music for the South Carolina Primary — Carolina Crown and South Carolina State University.