'The Perfect Neighbor' leads Gold Derby odds for Documentary Feature at the Oscars

I made two predictions about two winners in 'The Perfect Neighbor' wins five Critics Choice Documentary Awards including Best Documentary that won't come true.

The Critics Choice Association (CCA) unveiled the winners of the Tenth Annual Critics Choice Documentary Awards at a gala event in New York City. The Perfect Neighbor won the top award of the evening, Best Documentary Feature. The film also took home awards in four other categories including Best Director for Geeta Gandbhir, Best Editing for Viridiana Lieberman, Best Archival Documentary, and Best True Crime Documentary.

The only category I clearly called for The Perfect Neighbor was Best True Crime Documentary. I thought it was a co-favorite with Riefenstahl and Orwell: 2+2=5 for Best Director, so no clear call, picked Orwell: 2+2=5 to win Best Documentary and Best Archival Documentary, and made no call for Best Editing, although I'm not surprised; editing is what makes a good archival documentary. Just the same, congratulations and good luck at next year's Emmy Awards, either as Outstanding Crime and Justice Documentary at the News & Doc Emmy Awards or Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special/Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking at the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards...

The trophy for Best Political Documentary was awarded to The Alabama Solution.

While I thought The Alabama Solution could win, I also thought Orwell: 2+2=5 would win. Nope. Just the same, congratulations and good luck at the relevant Emmy Awards next year.

Neither The Perfect Neighbor nor The Alabama Solution will be nominated at either Emmy Awards because both earned nominations at the Academy Awards, disqualifying them for Emmy consideration. I'm not the least bit upset; this is exactly the kind of wrong I'd like to be. Also, congratulations to the producers and directors of both movies. I'm thrilled for them!

Now that the nominees have been announced, what are their Gold Derby odds? The Perfect Neighbor leads with every expert, 33.3% of editors, and 90.4% of users picking it to win. The Alabama Solution sits in second because it has the support of 5.4% of users and 16.7% of editors. Mr. Nobody Against Putin is actually the other top choice of editors at 33.3%, but only 2.3% of users, placing it third in the odds. Come See Me in the Good Light is currently in fourth as the selection of the remaining 16.7% of editors and 1.0% of users. Cutting Through Rocks has the remaining 0.9% of users. I have the feeling that the editors will consolidate around one or two nominees once the PGA Awards, DGA Awards, and BAFTA Awards have been presented. The Perfect Neighbor is the only Oscar-nominated documentary nominated or longlisted at all of them.

I embedded the trailer for The Perfect Neighbor in 'Orwell: 2+2=5' and 'The Perfect Neighbor' lead nominees for Best Documentary at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards and am sharing again here.

One woman. Dozens of 911 calls. And a close-knit neighborhood caught in a nightmare. What begins as one woman’s relentless harassment of children spirals into a shocking act of violence. Captured through gripping police bodycam footage, The Perfect Neighbor - Winner of the Sundance Film Festival’s Directing Award - delivers a hauntingly powerful experience that keeps you on edge from start to finish.

Yikes! This looks like a real-life version of multi-Razzie nominee Karen. That movie was about racism and harassment, and it's even uglier when it's fact instead of fiction.

Follow over the jump for the trailers of the other four nominees.

I'm sharing the trailers in the order of Gold Derby's odds, beginning with The Alabama Solution | Official Trailer | HBO.

Incarcerated men defy the odds to expose conditions on the inside.

This looks gripping, just as the quote from Variety says it is.

Next, Mr Nobody Against Putin - Official Trailer from Madman Films.

Pavel “Pasha” Talankin loves his job as a teacher in the small Russian town of Karabash – until his country invades Ukraine. He is outraged by the new government propaganda in the curriculum, not to mention the school’s being used as a military recruitment ground. In class, Pasha finds ways to playfully protest the regime; more crucially, he becomes a whistleblower, secretly filming the alarming shifts under the guise of his work as school videographer. He risks his life to send the footage overseas to filmmaker David Borenstein – while also planning his own escape.

Winner of Sundance’s World Cinema Documentary Special Jury Prize, this hugely daring and noble collaboration is one of the strongest docs of the year.

This looks like subversive fun among all the seriousness, unlike the two nominees above, which appear to be just grim. I can see why the editors are currently supporting it as much as The Perfect Neighbor. Which one wins depends on who the voters are maddest at, Vladimir Putin or Donald "Hoover Harding Cleveland" Trump and the people who voted for him. If it's "the most interesting man in the world," then it will be Mr. Nobody Against Putin, a sentiment that helped propel Icarus, Navalny, and 20 Days in Mariupol to Oscar wins. If they're angrier at Hoover Harding Cleveland and his voters, they might take it out on the title subject of The Perfect Neighbor. We'll find out. Remember, electorates matter.

Now another TV documentary whose Oscar nomination has disqualified it for the Emmys, Come See Me In The Good Light — Official Trailer | Apple TV.

Theirs is a story of happiness. Andrea Gibson and Megan Falley found joy, poetry, and light in each other. Come See Me In The Good Light is now streaming on Apple TV...

“Come See Me in the Good Light” is a poignant and unexpectedly funny love story about poets Andrea Gibson and Megan Falley facing an incurable cancer diagnosis with joy, wit and an unshakable partnership. Through laughter and unwavering love, they transform pain into purpose, and mortality into a moving celebration of resilience.

I teared up watching this trailer and I'm sure I'm not alone.

I close with CUTTING THROUGH ROCKS | Official Trailer | In Select Theaters November 21.

As the first elected councilwoman of her remote Iranian village, Sara Shahverdi fearlessly breaks patriarchal traditions by training teenage girls to ride motorcycles and stopping child marriages. When accusations arise questioning Sara’s intentions to empower the girls, her identity is put in turmoil.

I found this inspiring. I'm sure others do, too, just as I'm sure there is a lot of support for the Women of Iran, Time's Heroes of the Year for 2022. I don't think those will be enough to get this nominee to win, and neither do the prognosticators at Gold Derby.

That's a wrap for today. Stay tuned for more awards show coverage in tomorrow's Sunday entertainment feature.