How did Gold Derby's Emmy nominations predictions fare?

I closed Vox and PBS ask 'Why do we have grass lawns?' with a program footnote.

I'm once again blogging about more evergreen topics that will be good to share in August, like the environmental cost of lawns. This also includes this year's Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards, which will be announced later this morning. Look for me to write about them, beginning with examining how Gold Derby's predictions for Emmy-nominated shows fared tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Time to check the predictions against reality beginning with the Television Academy announcing 76th Emmy Nominations: Comedy Series.


The Gold Derby editors' and experts Emmy nomination predictions for eight comedy series were The Bear, Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, Curb Your Enthusiasm, What We Do in the Shadows, Palm Royale, and Reservation Dogs. Those all came true. Congratulations! On the other hand, the top 24 users thought The Gentlemen would knock out Palm Royale. My reaction was "The former may be funnier, but the latter has more star power, which makes me think it has the advantage, at least among the actors." That's apparently what happened. Don't underestimate the power of the Television Academy's equivalent of the Actors Branch. Remember, electorates matter.

Predictions first for the next category.

Gold Derby's next category is drama series, the top eight among the editors consists of Shogun, The Crown, The Morning Show, The Gilded Age, Fallout, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Slow Horses, and The Curse. Shogun moved from limited series to drama series just in time to make the ballot in this category, unseating The Crown as the favorite and knocking 3 Body Problem out of the predicted top eight.

That was Friday night. By Wednesday morning, the editors switched 3 Body Problem and The Curse, which turned out to be a smart move. Watch 76th Emmy Nominations: Drama Series to see why.


The editors got it right at the last minute, so congratulations. That's more than can be said about the experts or users, who kept The Curse in their top eight. Since my wife and I enjoyed 3 Body Problem but didn't continue watching The Curse, I can see why the former earned this nomination while the latter was skunked — no nominations at all! I don't know if I will suggest The Curse to the Saturn Awards, but I'm definitely passing on 3 Body Problem along with Shogun, Fallout, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, and Slow Horses.

Gold Derby's editors, experts, and top 24 users all predicted Baby Reindeer, Fargo, Lessons in Chemistry, Ripley and True Detective: Night Country. Those were exactly the nominees for 76th Emmy Nominations: Limited or Anthology Series.


Congratulations to both the nominees and Gold Derby prognosticators!

On the other hand, none of the three groups perfectly predicted the next category.

The Gold Derby editors have a statistical tie for the fifth Emmy nomination in television movies, giving both The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial and Scoop five votes each. The last slot may be even more unsettled, as No One Will Save You has four editor votes. The editors' top four consists of Mr. Monk's Last Case, Red, White and Royal Blue, Quiz Lady, and The Great Lillian Hall. The experts and top 24 users disagree, thinking both The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial and Scoop will make the top five while The Great Lillian Hall won't. This will be another category worth watching.

The Television Academy didn't create a clip for TV Movie, but they did tweet out this image.


The editors picked three, Mr. Monk's Last Case, Red, White and Royal Blue, and Quiz Lady,, while the experts and top 24 users correctly chose Scoop. None of the editors or users voted for Unfrosted to be nominated, landing it in 18th by default, but four of the experts did, placing it eighth. Congratulations to those experts. Like Palm Royale in Comedy Series, I'm chalking Unfrosted's nomination up to star power and the actors voting for it. Again, electorates matter.

Follow over the jump to see how Gold Derby's predictions fared in the remaining four categories.

Gold Derby's prognosticators were almost as wrong in the next category.

The editors, experts, and top users at Gold Derby all agree that RuPaul's Drag Race is the favorite, Top Chef and Survivor will return, and The Traitors will be nominated, knocking out of last year's nominees; they just don't agree on which one, The Voice or Amazing Race. The editors think it will be Amazing Race, while the experts and users think it will be The Voice.

All three groups were wrong about Survivor being nominated, while both The Voice and Amazing Race returned. Watch 76th Emmy Nominations: Reality Competition Program for the nominees.


As I wrote on Saturday, "I'm glad I looked at the editors' picks and decided to include Amazing Race!"

Now for a category where the editors called the top four, but which surprised me by having only four nominees, 76th Emmy Nominations: Talk Series.


The editors top four picks for Emmy nominees in variety talk series were The Daily Show, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Late Night with Seth Meyers, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! with John Mulaney Presents Everybody's in L.A. in fifth, so I'm giving them full credit for forecasting the nominees. It makes up for messing up the reality competition nominees. On the other hand, the experts and top users at Gold Derby both thought John Mulaney Presents Everybody's in L.A. would be in the top four. Nope.

Only two of four qualifying shows will earn nominations for scripted variety series and the editors, experts, and top users at Gold Derby all agree they will be Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and Saturday Night Live and that Last Week Tonight with John Oliver will win.

Gold Derby called the nominations. We'll find out if they called the winner in September.


While "the editors, experts, and top users at Gold Derby all agree on the Emmy nominees in this category, The Simpsons, X-Men '97, Rick and Morty, Bob's Burgers, and Blue Eye Samurai," they missed one of the nominees entirely as Scavengers Reign got the spot all three groups predicted would go to Rick and Morty. Surprise!

I plan on resuming my Emmy nominee coverage on Sunday for the entertainment feature. In the meantime, I've decided I'm not examining Cuba for National Daiquiri Day tomorrow; I have more pressing matters to cover that will be worth sharing next month, but I still plan on sharing a cocktail recipe, as we have plenty to drive us to drink. That will be followed by Moon Day on Saturday. Stay tuned.

Previous posts about the 76th Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards

• Gold Derby's predictions for Emmy-nominated shows