Saturday, July 13, 2024

Gold Derby's predictions for Emmy-nominated shows


I closed Colbert, Meyers, and 'The Daily Show' take more closer looks at Project 2025 by writing "I might move up the Sunday entertainment feature to tomorrow because Sunday is Bastille Day." Since the Emmy nominations will be revealed next week, I'm sharing the Gold Derby editors' Emmy nomination predictions for series and TV movies.


Gold Derby's Emmy nomination predictions begin with comedy series, so that's were I begin as well. As of last night, the the top eight comedy series were The Bear, Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, Curb Your Enthusiasm, What We Do in the Shadows, Palm Royale, and Reservation Dogs. The Gentlemen and Colin from Accounts effectively tie for ninth, while one editor each thinks Ghosts and Girls5Eva will earn nominations. The experts agree on the top eight, while the top 24 users think The Gentlemen will knock out Palm Royale. The former may be funnier, but the latter has more star power, which makes me think it has the advantage, at least among the actors.


Gold Derby's next category is drama series, the top eight among the editors consists of Shogun, The Crown, The Morning Show, The Gilded Age, Fallout, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Slow Horses, and The Curse. Shogun moved from limited series to drama series just in time to make the ballot in this category, unseating The Crown as the favorite and knocking 3 Body Problem out of the predicted top eight. The experts and top 24 users agree with the editors' top eight, although the users think Ahsoka will be the series knocked out by the addition of Shogun; they have 3 Body Problem in tenth and Loki in eleventh.


Moving Shogun out of limited series helped Baby Reindeer, which is now favored to win, and Ripley, which is now in fifth by a hair. The rest of the limited series field predicted by Gold Derby's editors, experts, and top 24 users are Fargo, Lessons in Chemistry, and True Detective: Night Country. The editors and experts think Fellow Travelers will be the show that just misses the cutoff, while the users think it will be Masters of the Air.


The Gold Derby editors have a statistical tie for the fifth Emmy nomination in television movies, giving both The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial and Scoop five votes each. The last slot may be even more unsettled, as No One Will Save You has four editor votes. The editors' top four consists of Mr. Monk's Last Case, Red, White and Royal Blue, Quiz Lady, and The Great Lillian Hall. The experts and top 24 users disagree, thinking both The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial and Scoop will make the top five while The Great Lillian Hall won't. This will be another category worth watching.

Follow over the jump for the remaining four show categories.


The editors, experts, and top users at Gold Derby all agree that RuPaul's Drag Race is the favorite, Top Chef and Survivor will return, and The Traitors will be nominated, knocking out of last year's nominees; they just don't agree on which one, The Voice or Amazing Race. The editors think it will be Amazing Race, while the experts and users think it will be The Voice. I'm glad I looked at the editors' picks and decided to include Amazing Race!


The editors, experts, and top users at Gold Derby all agree that the Emmy nominees for variety talk series will be The Daily Show, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Late Night with Seth Meyers, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and John Mulaney Presents Everybody's in L.A. with Hot Ones being the odd show out, although some voters in each group gave it votes to make the field. I included it in the image above just for the pure novelty of it being a serious contender.


Only two of four qualifying shows will earn nominations for scripted variety series and the editors, experts, and top users at Gold Derby all agree they will be Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and Saturday Night Live and that Last Week Tonight with John Oliver will win. SNL will have to earn Emmys elsewhere. Sorry, After Midnight and Painting with John. Be happy I even bothered to include you in the screenshot. Also, the category and I miss Black Lady Sketch Show.


For the last time, I will write that the editors, experts, and top users at Gold Derby all agree on the Emmy nominees in this category, The Simpsons, X-Men '97, Rick and Morty, Bob's Burgers, and Blue Eye Samurai, leaving Big Mouth out in the cold with the addition of X-Men '97. They don't agree on who will win, as the editors and users think The Simpsons will repeat, while the experts expect X-Men '97 will win in its rookie year.

That's it for the Sunday entertainment feature one day early. Stay tuned for Bastille Day, the last of three patriotic holidays I celebrate on this blog during July.

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