Marco Rubio, seen here on the left of Donald Trump the other candidates at the Republican debate in Detroit, has fallen behind Ted Cruz in two polls, one of which also had John Kasich ahead of Rubio.Rubio falls out of second in Michigan behind Cruz with Kasich gaining
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While New York real estate developer Donald Trump still leads in Michigan, the race for second place continues to develop. Two polls taken after Super Tuesday show that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has fallen out of second place and is being passed by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Governor John Kasich of Ohio, as Evangelicals and the youngest voters move from Rubio to Cruz, middle-aged voter shift from Rubio to Trump, and older voters change from Rubio to Kasich and Trump.This is the polling story I said I'd write about in 'Dump Trump' and 'Arrest Snyder' at the Detroit Republican Debate. Lots of analysis of where Rubio is losing his support at the link along with a video recap of Thursday's debate. As for the fresh angle, I decided that who was moving in and out of second was more interesting than another "Trump leads" story--boring!
A poll of 1643 likely Republican primary voters by the Trafalgar Group conducted on March 2 and March 3 and released overnight between March 3 and March 4 found Trump leading with 41.87 percent, Cruz second at 20.45 percent, Kasich third with 18.14 percent, and Rubio fourth at 13.79 percent with 5.75 percent undecided. A Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll of 543 likely voters taken March 2 and released March 3 reported similar findings with the main difference being Rubio in third, ahead of Kasich by only one percent.
“There were several changes resulting from Super Tuesday including a small bump up in Trump's support (42%) and a big change in the second spot as Cruz (19%) and Rubio (15%) changed places and percentages. Cruz moved up 5% and Rubio dropped 4%. Kasich (14%) moved up 2% and was also helped by the awareness that Carson was not debating and that he ‘could not see a path forward’ for his campaign,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said in a press release, comparing the results to the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll taken on March 1, a day earlier. “It appears that Trump’s more conciliatory style in his Tuesday night press conference, Cruz’s four victories, and Rubio’s failure to meet expectations have changed the race.”