Please clap for Jeb Bush as he leaves the island

I wrote that I had a good-bye to Jeb Bush post coming in the footnote to Drink to 'Deadpool's second week on top of the box office.  I could make zombie campaign jokes, but I'm just not feeling it today.  Instead, I'm feeling sorry for the guy. Without any further ado, here's his concession/suspension speech from CSPAN: Jeb Bush Suspends Campaign - FULL SPEECH.

Former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) suspend his presidential campaign the night of the South Carolina Republican primary.

Included in his remarks: "I'm proud of the campaign that we've run to unify our county and to advocate conservative solutions that would give more Americans the opportunity to rise up and reach their God-given potential. But, the people of Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken and I really respect their decision. So tonight I am suspending my campaign."

I found it quite appropriate that Jeb made a reality TV reference--"my competitors that are remaining on the island"--considering that he lost to a former reality TV star.  I have a clip from Vox about that, but I'll save it for another entry; today is Jeb's day.

The only thing that surprised me about Jeb's announcement was the timing.  I made my bets in the candidate deadpool in the conclusion to Kasich stumps in Michigan.

Would such a performance make him drop out?  Probably not.  Losing Ohio would.  That happens on March 15th, the same day as the Florida primary.  That's when I expect Kasich to exit the contest and perhaps the weaker of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.  I expect to be writing another farewell post or two that week.

Good thing I didn't wager any money; I'd have lost it.

Follow over the jump for analyses of Jeb's failed candidacy.

The smart money is moving from Rubio to Cruz but the endorsements aren't

In a footnote to Ben Carson sings "One Wittle Wee Wee," I wrote that "The smart money is still on Rubio to beat Trump."  That started changing a couple of weeks ago, when Rubio's chances fell below 40% and Cruz passed Trump.  A month ago, PredictWise's aggregate of betting markets gave Rubio a 47% chance of winning the nomination.  Trump was second and well behind at 19% with Cruz at 13% and Bush at 10%.  Monday, Paul Krugman included the above chart in Where’s The Rubiomentum?  As of Wednesday, Cruz continued to gain on Rubio, rising to 27% while Rubio remained at 35% and Trump actually dropped a bit to 23%.  Meanwhile, Bush is still stuck at 10% and Christie has replaced Carson in the top five, improving to 5%.

Krugman expressed his skepticism of Rubio's odds, writing "I’m not a huge believer in prediction markets, which seem more to reflect conventional wisdom than to offer profound insights."*  Just the same, he mentioned that "it’s noteworthy that they are less and less convinced that Rubio is really a front-runner, and now take both Trump and Cruz seriously."  I saw that last month as well and I opined that it's not a good thing.

The bettors may be losing confidence in Rubio, but elected Republican officials aren't.  During the most recent debate, FiveThirtyEight posted this graph showing how many endorsements GOP candidates had earned by debate time.


Rubio has earned even more since then and is within 10 points of Bush.  Meanwhile, Ted Cruz has only been inching up.  The people making wagers may think that Rubio is losing steam, but the party establishment is still boarding the Rubio bandwagon faster than any other candidate.  If one is a fan of "The Party Decides," like the writers at FiveThirtyEight, then this is a good thing for Marco Rubio.  Of course, the party may decide on Cruz.  If so, Krugman is looking forward to the outcome.  As he wrote, "it will be fun watching supposedly moderate Republicans explain why Trump or Cruz are, in the end, better than Hillary."

*Krugman's comment mirrors what Infidel 753 wrote in a response to a comment of mine at his blog.

I don't have the slightest interest in online betting markets on elections. The fact that people are willing to put up money based on their opinions doesn't mean they have any more knowledge or expertise than anyone else -- only that they're probably as dumb as most gamblers are.

I have more confidence in the usefulness of prediction markets, but that's because of my experience with the Iowa Electronic Market, which goes back to 1992.  I've found it very reliable.

Farewell, Lindsey Graham!

Another debate, another dropout from the GOP contest--that's been the pattern so far and it held after last week's debate with the suspension of Lindsey Graham's campaign yesterday.  CNN has the story in Lindsey Graham quits; GOP establishment wonders who's next.

In suspending his bid for the White House on Monday, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham acknowledged two stark realities: attacking billionaire businessman Donald Trump doesn't work and the establishment lane is still too full.

"We're going to have to start consolidating as Republicans," he said in an exclusive interview with CNN's Kate Bolduan on his decision to leave the 2016 GOP presidential nominating race.

Graham's parting plea echoes what prominent Republicans and conservatives have been saying for months as Trump's dominance and that of other outsiders have left the GOP establishment rattled and split among several candidates.

Conservative Washington Post blogger Jennifer Rubin put it bluntly in a column: "Lindsey Graham is out, others should follow."

That may be the sane reaction, but it's not what's happening, as Wochit shows in GOP Candidates Vie For Lindsey Graham Supporters.

Lindsey Graham's withdrawal from the race for Republican presidential nominee is only hours old, but his former rivals are already jockeying to pick up the support of the South Carolina senator. Graham's endorsement is strategically important due to the early timing of the South Carolina primary, the first in the Republican-dominated South. Graham, who told CNN on Monday that he has "no intention of endorsing anyone right now," has already seen the various campaigns lining up to heap praise upon him: from Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, to Jeb Bush, all now seeking the backing of Graham and his supporters.

Graham's supporters may be useful in South Carolina for endorsements and money, but as far as making a difference in actual voters, I'll let this graphic from P.M. Carpenter show how much that will really mean. 


Good luck going after that one percent, Establishment candidates.  They might get one of you into third place.

As for the rest of us, drink a South Carolina Swizzle for Lindsey: South Carolina Swizzle Cocktail - The Proper Pour with Charlotte Voisey - Small Screen.

Inspired by the delicious produce of South Carolina and Georgia, Charlotte created the South Carolina Swizzle Cocktail to celebrate one of her favorite regions of the United States. Served in a julep style, this refreshing libation is perfect as a summer sipper.

Remember, great cocktails start with measuring responsibly.
Recipe:
1 1/2 parts Hendrick's Gin - Watch The Unusual Times: http://bit.ly/hendricks_reservebar
1/2 part Bitter Truth Apricot Liqueur
3/4 part fresh lime juice
3/4 part simple syrup
1/4 part Yellow Chartreuse

Instructions:
Shake ingredients with ice.
Strain over crushed ice into hurricane or tall glass.
Garnish with a mint sprig.

Darth Trump strikes back as The Farce awakens

I'm not done with Darth Trump.  Here are three cartoons that feature him as evil Star Wars characters.

First, here he is as one of a rogue's gallery of Republican candidates as Star Wars characters.


Seeing this lineup is enough to make one drink.*

Next, Chris Christie isn't the only candidate who reminds cartoonists of Jabba The Hutt.


Just remember what Princess Leia did to her captor.  I'm sure the GOP would like to make life imitate art.

Finally, The Penguin Donald returns as the Dark Lord of the Sith.


Yes, The Farce is strong with this one.

*That reminds me that there is a Democratic Debate tonight.  Here are the drinks and drinking game rules for Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley.  Happy debate watching, especially in the middle of a data breach scandal.

Ben Carson sings "One Wittle Wee Wee"

The scrutiny of Ben Carson that included my razzing him in Doctor Carson and his Amazing Technicolor Labcoat looks likes it's taking its toll, as Politico reported Wednesday Ben Carson tumbles in national poll.  That survey had him tied for third place with Ted Cruz behind Donald Trump in first and Marco Rubio in second.*  Looks like the next Examiner.com article on Carson's polls won't show him leading Clinton and Sanders in Michigan.

It also means that jokes about the candidate, other than ones about his leaving the nomination contest, are approaching their sell by dates.  Since my wife found a good one, I'd better share it before it goes bad.  So in the spirit of Donald Trump dance remix, I present One Wittle Wee-Wee In America (Ben Carson).

One of the greatest Presidential Campaign songs of all time. Dr Ben Carson (Neurosurgeon) and his contribution "One Wittle Wee-Wee". For 'murica.

If you like this, please check out "Bad Lip Reading" on YouTube. This is a snippet from their original video, with some extra patriotism thrown in for my own entertainment.

Here's the full video, in which Doctor Pyramid gets the last song: "FIRST REPUBLICAN DEBATE HIGHLIGHTS: 2015" — A Bad Lip Reading of The Republican Debate.


If only these candidates were this funny in real life.

*The smart money is still on Rubio to beat Trump.

Trump's supporters display their poor writing skills

I'm not through with The Penguin Donald this week.  I stumbled across this item from The Moderate Voice found via Crooks and Liars that demonstrates how one can tell a lot about candidates through their supporters.

Why are we not surprised that Carly Fiorina’s fans have the best grammar, spelling and punctuation among the Republican presidential candidates and Donald Trump’s have the worst?

That’s based on an analysis from Grammarly, an automated proofreading company, which evaluated the supporters of the GOP candidates. Fiorina’s fans had 6.3 errors per hundred words in their Facebook comments, while Trump’s backers had 12.6 errors per 100 words. Only comments of 15 words or more were analyzed, and Grammarly ignored common slang words and stylistic variations (for instance, the use of serial commas, using numerals instead of spelling out numbers, using contractions). In total, roughly 9,000 words were evaluated for each candidate.

In ascending order of misteaks . . . er, mistakes per 100 words, Ben Carson’s supporters were second with 6.6, Lindsay Graham and George Pataki with 7.2 each, Ted Cruz 7.7, John Kasich 7.7, Jeb Bush 7.9, Mike Huckabee 8.0, Bobby Jindal 8.2, Chris Christie 8.3, Rand Paul 8.4, Marco Rubio 8.8, Scott Walker 10.6, Ric Santorum 11.5, and Rick Perry second-to-last with 12.5.

Follow over the jump for a graphic from USA Today showing these findings.

Drinks for the candidates in tonight's debate

I concluded Proof of drinking game concept on Kasich with "Two candidates down, eight to go.  Stay tuned."  I took care of drinks for Kasich and Trump, now it's time for the rest of the candidates.  Follow over the jump for the rest of the drinking game at You Might Notice A Trend along with drinks for the remaining eight candidates.

Examiner.com article on Trump combing in second in Michigan

Walker leads Trump by a hair in Michigan

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has a mere one percent lead with fifteen percent over real estate mogul and reality television star Donald Trump and the rest of the Republican field in Michigan according to a poll released Tuesday, June 30, by Public Policy Polling.  Trump is in a three-way tie at fourteen percent with physician and Detroit native Ben Carson and former Florida Governor John Ellis "Jeb" Bush.  The rest of the Republican field has support in the single digits with Florida Senator Marco Rubio coming in closest at nine percent.

Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, said in a statement "Donald Trump's in the top tier of the Republican field for a second consecutive week in our polling.  Time will tell how long the Trump Bump lasts, but it's at least two weeks at this point."

The same survey found former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead over the Democratic field at fifty-seven percent.  Bernie Sanders came in second, far behind Clinton at twenty-five percent.  The remaining Democratic contenders fell even farther behind with support in the single digits.

The poll also found that Clinton would defeat any of the Republican candidates in Michigan by margins of three to ten percent.  Kentucky Senator Rand Paul came in closest at three percent, while Trump and Texas Senator Raphael "Ted" Cruz would both lose to Clinton by ten percent.

Not only has Trump combed in second in New Hampshire poll once, he did it three more times, once again in New Hampshire, once nationally, and now here in Michigan.  Trump as Penguin for President is kicking butt, even if Univision has fired him.  Not only am I getting mileage out of him here at Crazy Eddie's Motie News (the second and third most read entries last month were about The Donald), I'm making some money covering him at Examiner.com.  I'll make even more if my readers support my reporting by clicking on the link in the headline.

Stay tuned for a celebration of Canada Day and this month's Nablopomo theme.  Hint, it's recycled.