Today on Science Fiction Political Theater...

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 Arnold Schwarzenegger can't have all the fun.

It's been a good day for business as usual in Detroit

First, Chrysler paying back its loan to the U.S. and Canadian Governments from its bankruptcy reorganization, as reported by WXYZ.

Chrysler has paid back the assistance it received from the federal government.

Next, a rosy economic forecast from Comerica Bank's economist, as reported by the Detroit Free Press.

After years of decline, Michigan’s economy is growing and the state is headed in the right direction by trying to create a better business environment, Comerica Bank’s chief economist said this morning.

“Michigan is going to do just fine over the next 10 to 15 years,” Dana Johnson told some of the bank’s customers during a breakfast presentation at Weber’s Hotel in Ann Arbor. “The governor has set us on a better course.”

Which governor?

After years of decline, Michigan’s economy is growing and the state is headed in the right direction by trying to create a better business environment, Comerica Bank’s chief economist said this morning.

“Michigan is going to do just fine over the next 10 to 15 years,” Dana Johnson told some of the bank’s customers during a breakfast presentation at Weber’s Hotel in Ann Arbor. “The governor has set us on a better course.”

Oh, that governor, the one my wife and I are circulating recall petitions for. Yeah, the business as usual people would like him. My wife and I are not business as usual people. I personally think he's a sustainability disaster, particularly at the intersection between social justice and economic viability. So far, he's sacrificed the former nearly every time for the latter. I haven't seen much of what he's done at the intersection of the environment and economy, although what I've read of his farming policy looks like he'll sacrifice environment for economy, just not as badly as he would society.

Enough of that rant. What else did the fellow predict?

He estimates that Michigan’s economy will see growth of 2.5% to 3% compared with 3% to 3.5% for the nation as a whole. The weaker growth is due to the state’s shrinking population, Johnson said.

That's actually not an unreasonable prediction, and one that acknowledges that Michigan is managing contraction, which is not business as usual.

Of course, economists work best in hindsight. What is in our rear-view mirror?

However, Johnson noted that from April 2010 to April 2011, Michigan enjoyed a 1.5% increase in non-farm payroll jobs, better than the 1% national gain. That’s largely due to the strong rebound in manufacturing. Demand for durable goods, such as cars and washing machines, has been a key driver of economic growth during the past year.

Really good old news, something that explains the first item. It also explains the next, also from the Detroit Free Press.

General Motors plans to add two shifts with a total of 2,500 jobs to its Detroit-Hamtramck plant and add production of the next-generation Chevrolet Impala, completing the old Cadillac plant's conversion to one that builds Chevys.

The full-sized sedan will join the Chevrolet Volt extended-range electric car and the upcoming Chevrolet Malibu at the factory, adding new workers and allowing others to transfer to the plant. The jobs will first go to laid-off U.S. workers, who currently number around 1,350.

The Detroit-Hamtramck plant, which GM opened in 1985 to build Cadillacs, drove its last Cadillac DTS off the line Tuesday. The factory will build its last Buick Lucerne next week and then become solely a Chevrolet plant.

"The great history of the Cadillac wreath and crest is important, but our Chevrolet bowtie is where the volume is," said Mark Reuss, president of GM North America.

The second Detroit-Hamtramck shift will come online late this fall, with jobs added gradually over the next several months, Reuss said. The third shift will start "at some point after that," he said.

As I wrote, good news in a business as usual environment. With the Volt being built there, along with the high-mileage Malibu, it's even good news in an environment in which sustainbility becomes central.

Now, some good news that flows out of yesterday's post about falling gas prices, again from the Detroit Free Press.

Break out the fudge and shoot off some fireworks, Michigan's tourism industry is officially, positively, emphatically on the rebound.

After three down years, travel and tourism spending in the state rose 14% last year to $17.2 billion, up from $15.1 billion in 2009 -- the biggest one-year jump in Michigan history, according to the latest annual national survey by D.K. Shifflet & Associates of McLean, Va.

Especially notable was a 21% spike in spending by out-of-state leisure visitors, quite likely linked to the cumulative impact of the state's first-ever national cable TV buys of advertising time in 2009 and 2010 for the Pure Michigan campaign.

"We always believed we had a national quality product to sell, but we never had the budget before," said George Zimmermann, vice president of Travel Michigan, the tourism arm of the Michigan Economic Development Corp.

Considering that tourism is the second largest economic sector in Michigan during good economic years (it's third during bad years, when agriculture takes the silver medal among sectors; everyone has to eat, but not everyone has to visit The Henry Ford, Mackinac Island, or Sleeping Bear Dunes), this is very good news. Even so, everything is not business as usual.

Although travel spending in the state showed a nice double-digit gain last year, hiring in the tourism industry has been slower to rebound. Tourism employment rose 7% last year statewide but remains about 24% below the 2006 peak of 200,000 jobs.

The Great Recession lingers on.

ETA: To elaborate on the above, here is a video report from WOOD-TV.

The Business As Usual people are optimistic about Oakland County

I started this month with a good news post based on a press release that assumed Business as Usual (BAU) will return. I may as well close out the month with a post based on another optimistic BAU press release, this time from one of my alma maters.
University of Michigan: Oakland economy is in the early stages of sustained recovery

ANN ARBOR, Mich.—After posting modest job losses last calendar year following an abysmal 2009, the Oakland County economy should add nearly 29,000 jobs over the next three years—the best years since 2000, say University of Michigan economists.

That looks really good, doesn't it?

In their annual forecast of the Oakland County economy, George Fulton and Don Grimes of the U-M Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy say that Oakland will add nearly 11,000 jobs this year, another 8,000 next year and more than 9,700 in 2013.

This year looks like the best of the three and next year the worst of the three. If you're a politician up for re-election in 2012, that may not be the best news, but at least the projection isn't for job losses that year, either.

Last calendar year, Oakland County lost less than 1,200 jobs after losing nearly 60,000 jobs in 2009, and is currently adding jobs—the majority in sectors most tied to the New Economy.

Now does adding 29,000 jobs in three years look that good? Not when you realize that more than twice as many were lost in one year.

Even so, the good news continues

"The resurgence in the Oakland County economy appears to be no fluke, not related to any unusual events, but rather is backed by improvements in the U.S. economy, a reborn auto industry and the county's still-strong economic fundamentals and forward-looking policy initiatives," Fulton said. "Although the recovery is slower than what we've seen in the most recent expansions—a trend we also anticipate for the nation as a whole—we do see the county economy as being on an upward and sustained growth trajectory.

Until the start of the Great Recession, Oakland County was consistently among the ten richest counties in the country. It isn't any more, although it's still the wealthiest county in the state. Looks like things are reverting to the mean, which means climbing back up the rankings.

Despite the economic difficulties of the past decade, Oakland County still remains among the premier local economies in the country, with its coveted AAA bond rating and high ranking among 33 comparable counties in the United States on a series of measures that indicate future economic prosperity.

"Oakland ranks 8th overall—an impressive standing, especially considering that a number of these counties house some of the most thriving local economies in the nation," Grimes said. "This is even more impressive in light of Oakland's location within the state that has become notorious for its recent position near the bottom of the economic barrel.

"It is clear that whether we assess Oakland County with respect to how it is positioned in key economic fundamentals across all regions of the United States, or more restrictively here among its peers, there are few local economies with a more favorable composite profile for succeeding in the New Economy."

See, I told you, climbing back up the rankings.
Speaking of good news, is there any more?

"The net gain in jobs forecast over the next three years (including 2011), however, indicates only that the broad decline in employment has ended. It does not mean that the economy is back to normal. For many residents, the economic struggles will continue."

And who are the ones most likely to struggle, in addition to the long-term unemployed?

While the private sector in Oakland County will post job gains over the next three years,

Nearly 31,000 in fact.

jobs in the government sector, which includes public schools and local government administration, will continue to shrink, with more than 2,000 jobs lost through 2013. Nearly 70 percent of these losses will occur this year.

Remember I said that slow growth might harm the chances of any politician up for election next year? There are some politicians who public sector employees don't care for already who might be up for re-election, after a fashion, this year. Watch the following clip from WOOD-TV.

A longshot effort to recall Republican Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder can begin collecting signatures aimed at getting the measure on the ballot.

ETA: Also watch the following clips from WXYZ-TV.

Hundreds protest as Governor Snyder delivers address

As I've written before: "Business as usual? Not quite."