Sunday, November 24, 2013

Dow over 16,000, S&P over 1,800

It's been an interesting couple of weeks since Stop the limbo, get back on the rollercoaster, when I quoted Naked Capitalism thinking we're in a stock bubble.
A new era has dawned: there is now a consensus that this is a stock market bubble. We’re back where we were during the last bubble, or the one before it, though the jury is still out if this is February 2000 or October 1999 or sometime in 2007. How do I know it’s not just some intrepid souls on the bleeding edge who are claiming this, but a consensus?

Bubble data keep piling up relentlessly. IPOs so far this year amounted to $51 billion, the highest for the period since bubble-bust year 2000, the Wall Street Journal reported. Of them, 62% were for companies that have been losing money, the highest rate on record. Follow-on offerings by companies that already had their IPO but dumped more stock on the market amounted to $155 billion, the highest in Dealogic’s book, going back to 1995. And throughout, the DOW and the S&P 500 have been jumping from one new high to the next.
Kunstler noticed this and in last week's missive of doom has castigated a representative of the people promoting the bull market.
Schilling is really only shilling for delusional stock market psychology, which tends to be a self-reinforcing racket until it reaches a threshold of credulity criticality and then implodes from a sudden loss of faith, ruining even a great many one percenters. Money may indeed keep pouring into the US stock markets, especially from other countries, where the money is frightened.
That prompted this response from me.
And the money was indeed pouring in last week as the DJIA and S&P500 set record high after record high. In fact, this morning, the Dow broke 16,000. Let’s see if it closes above that level.
It didn't, not on Monday.  But it did on Thursday.  CNN has the story in Stocks soar to record highs.

U.S. stocks rose on Friday, and the S&P 500 closed above 1,800 for the first time ever. CNN's Alison Kosik reports.
Note what I wrote at the end of Opening day promotion of 'Catching Fire'.
I'll have more on "Catching Fire" later.  For starters, the movie has already beaten the first installment in opening night box office.
This clip was my source for this information.

While I've been watching for the market to top out since March, I think it probably won't do so until after the new year, as Reuters reports.
Both the Dow and the S&P 500 recorded their seventh straight week of gains in what has been a very strong year for stocks. The seven-week advance comes just ahead of December, which since 1950 has been the best month for both the Dow and the S&P.

"We're advising our clients to take this ride until the end of the year," said Drew Nordlicht, managing director and partner at Hightower San Diego.
Until then, the Business as Usual people can take comfort from the stock market.

By the way, while CNN pointed out an entertainment company as a big winner from last Friday, Reuters noted what sector has been the winner for the rally as a whole.
The S&P 500 healthcare sector index .SPXHC has gained 37.5 percent so far in 2013, making it the S&P 500's best-performing sector this year.
So much for the Affordable Care Act AKA Obamacare being a big drag on healthcare.

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