Colbert and Meyers take closer looks at the Taliban taking over Afghanistan

Today is National Nonprofit Day, but beyond asking my readers to donate to their favorite nonprofit, I'm just not feeling it.* Instead, I'm examining a news event directly related to the description of the blog, the collapse of the Afghan government and its precipitous takeover by the Taliban. While I expected the eventual outcome, its swiftness shocked me so much that I have to process it through comedy. I begin with Stephen Colbert's monologue last night, Biden Faces Mounting Criticism As The Taliban Takes Control Of Afghanistan.

President Biden addressed the nation Monday afternoon to outline new goals for America's military mission in Afghanistan, as dramatic scenes of the Taliban's takeover of Kabul prompted harsh criticism of the president's withdrawal plan.

It only took a minute for Colbert to begin the comparisons to the fall of Saigon. At least that happened two years after the U.S. withdrew its troops and the South Vietnamese government and army put up a stiff fight the whole time. This time, the Afghan government and army gave up while the U.S. was still there, as President Biden pointed out. Frankly, I feel insulted, both by the Afghan government's (in)actions and the U.S. intelligence failure. I expressed what a waste of time, money, and lives the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan was ten years ago in We could have had the Moon, instead we get Afghanistan. Seeing this collapse a decade later demonstrates that I wasn't disgusted enough at the squandering of blood and treasure in "the Graveyard of Empires" at the time.

Colbert made two points as he closed out his monologue. First, our intervention in Afghanistan was a bipartisan failure of four administrations over 20 years. Second, there is nothing we can do about it in Afghanistan. Seth Meyers agreed with the first point but offered an alternative to the second in As US Withdraws from Afghanistan, Refugees Must Be Evacuated Immediately: A Closer Look.

Seth takes a closer look at the Taliban regaining control of Afghanistan as a 20 year foreign policy disaster that American officials from both parties bear responsibility for comes to a tragic end.

It took ten years for the U.S. to take out Osama bin Ladin and we stuck around for another decade. As for taking in Afghan refugees, that is another parallel to the fall of Saigon. The U.S. should at least accept the Afghans who worked for us and their families as refugees.

Seth closed by asking his viewers to donate to God's Love We Deliver. Just click the donate button at his video. That's one way of celebrating National Nonprofit Day.


*That's because I'm no longer a director of a nonprofit and that nonprofit is no longer an independent organization with its own fundraising. If my readers want to support the Coffee Party and its parent organization Bridge Alliance, they can become a Friend of Bridge, contributions to which are tax deductible. They can also donate to whichever member of Bridge Alliance strikes their fancy. There, that's the pitch.

Retail Archaeology updates two bankruptcies, JCPenney and Stein Mart, tales of the Retail Apocalypse and pandemic

I wrote "I know I'll be blogging more about the Retail Apocalypse, as I have a video from Retail Archaeology to share about JCPenney" near the end of Stein Mart files for bankruptcy and will close all stores, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse and pandemic. That was a month and a half ago, and I've been so busy with the 2020 election, COVID-19 pandemic, and Emmy Awards that I haven't followed through. Since then, Erik of Retail Archaeology has also uploaded a video on Stein Mart, so it's time to share both of them before they turn into pumpkins, an appropriate image for the month of October.

I begin by sharing Erik's update on JCPenney, JCPenney: Bankrupt & Out Of Time.

In this episode of Retail Archaeology we take a look at JCPenney and go over some of latest news about them. This location in this episode is at Paradise Valley Mall, a dead mall in Phoenix, AZ.

The answer to "is JCPenney the next Sears?" is still yes. At least Sears and KMart avoided liquidation. That's a better prognosis than for the subject of Erik's next video update on a retail bankruptcy, Game Over For Stein Mart.

In this episode of Retail Archaeology we take a look a Stein Mart. Stein Mart is a 112 year old department store chain that just filed for bankruptcy and is closing all of their locations.

Stein Mart's fate makes it the next Toys R Us without the rebirth, although I could be wrong. RadioShack returned after I had given up hope.

That's it for the Retail Apocalypse for today. Stay tuned for a drinking game, memes, and drinks for this year's Vice Presidential Debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence. That promises to be better behaved than last week's WWE match of a debate.

Destination Maternity/Motherhood Maternity files for bankruptcy and announces store closings, blaming lower birth rates, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse

While my tales of the Retail Apocalypse usually intersect with online shopping, particularly Amazon, I found one that has more in common with lower birth and fertility rates, the bankruptcy of Destination Maternity, which is also the parent company of Motherhood Maternity and A Pea in a Pod.  Watch Destination Maternity to close 183 stores in Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Destination Maternity filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday [October 21] as the apparel company hopes to avoid the graveyard of fashion retailers.

Nice Hand took the text of the slideshow video from a USA Today article, Destination Maternity to close 183 stores in Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The retailer operates stores under several brands, including Destination Maternity, Motherhood Maternity and A Pea in the Pod.

The company had 446 stores in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico as of Aug. 3. It also operated 491 shops-within-a-shop at various department stores and baby specialty retailers.

The company plans to close 183 stores after already shuttering 27 recently, according to a court filing. Bankruptcy allows companies to escape unprofitable leases.

...the company, in a court document, blamed the retail industry's turmoil, declining birth rates, high rents and leadership turnover for faltering. The company has had five CEOs in the last five years.

Yes, declining birth rates.  Business Insider featured that angle in Bankrupt Destination Maternity is on the brink of collapse — and declining birthrates may be to blame.

The declining national birthrate isn't just a sociological concern — it also holds perilous economic implications for several industries, including, most recently, maternity apparel.

US birthrates hit a record 32-year low in 2018 after dropping 2% from 2017, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Over the past two years, the dip has negatively impacted a variety of companies, from Toys R Us and Babies R Us to consumer-packaged-goods companies like Kimberly-Clark and Procter & Gamble that sell diapers and other products for babies.

Now it's coming for Destination Maternity, the largest global maternity company.
...
On Thursday, analysts at Demographic Intelligence — a forecasting firm specializing in national marriage and birthrates — said decreasing birthrates have played a direct role in the Destination Maternity bankruptcy.

"While competition from online retailers and other widely discussed factors may have had some role to play, Destination Maternity's declining net sales in recent years have tracked fairly closely with the sharp decline in births in the United States," Lyman Stone, an advisor at Demographic Intelligence advisor, said in a statement.

Once again, I'm being a good environmentalist and recycling.

On the one hand, the U.S. is doing its part to slow down population growth.  On the other hand, [this means] a possible shrinking economy in the future, which is bad for business as usual.  It's time to be a good environmentalist and recycle what I wrote last year.

I have been in favor of zero population growth for as long as I can remember.  However, I'm not sure the U.S. economy is set up for a stable or slowly declining population, a point I made in the Hipcrime Vocab: Why Slowing Population Growth is a Problem.  We are going to have to figure how to do so.  Otherwise, I might live long enough to experience the wisdom of the saying "Be careful what you wish for; you might get it."

Here's to hoping the U.S. learns how to thread that needle.

Fall back as four states consider ending or keeping Daylight Saving Time permanently

Last year, told my readers to Fall back as 'Last Week Tonight' asks 'how is this still a thing?'  This year, I told my readers Spring ahead for Daylight Saving Time even if you hate it.  The response from readers was Daylight Saving Time sucks.  Voters and legislators from four states, California, Florida, Michigan, and New York, seem to agree, as they have voted, will vote, or are considering voting on bills or proposals to stop switching to Daylight Saving Time and back again.

I begin with California, where KERO in Bakersfield reported Voters decide on keeping daylight saving time.*



Voters speak on daylight saving time
CBS Los Angeles has more on Proposition 7 in Daylight Saving Time Controversy.

This weekend we get that extra hour of sleep that we've been missing. Clocks fall back one hour, making the sun go down a bit earlier. But Daylight Saving Time could soon be a thing of the past in California. The time change started back in 1949 but many Californians want to see an end to it. On Tuesday voters will decide. Cristy Fajardo reports.

Yes, even Daylight Saving Time is now an election issue.

Follow over the jump for the rest of the stories about states trying to "fix the clock."

Sears Holdings files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse

As foreshadowed in Part 4 of Sears, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse, Sears Holdings filed for bankruptcy today.  WXYZ broke the story at 6:00 A.M. today with Sears, the store that changed America, declares bankruptcy.

Sears, the once-dominant retail chain that changed how Americans shopped and lived, has filed for bankruptcy.

The Taylor store that served as the backdrop for the location shoot was not on the closure list.  Instead, the Sears in Ann Arbor and Lincoln Park and the KMarts in Lake Orion and North Charlevoix were.  I used to shop at the Sears in Briarwood Mall in Ann Arbor, so that hits close to home.  Also, last I checked, Briarwood Mall is not a dead mall, so seeing it on the closure list surprises me.  Maybe it just lost customers to the other anchors, JCPenney, Macy's, and Von Maur.  However, my prediction that the Twelve Oaks Mall location in Novi would be open until the entire chain goes under continues to look good.  Good thing I didn't write that about the Sears in Briarwood!

In addition to Sears filing for bankruptcy, Eddie Lampert, who I call Fast Eddie Lamprey, has stepped down as CEO.  CNBC discusses that and more in Cramer: Capitalism getting rid of Sears is good.

The 'Squawk on the Street' team discusses Sears filing for bankruptcy and Eddie Lampert, Sears Holdings CEO, stepping down.

I can imagine trying to run a retail chain that isn't for rich people from a yacht in Florida would be difficult, not that I feel sorry for Fast Eddie Lamprey.  He needed to go.  Also, I think Cramer may not be wrong that the creditors could force the hand of Sears Holdings and cause the firm to go into Chapter 7 bankruptcy, resulting in liquidation of assets and closure of all stores by early next year.  I hope that's not the case, but I think the entire company will be out of business by late next year or early 2020 at the latest.

CNBC also looked forward to what the Sears bankruptcy would mean to malls and Sears retail competitors in Sears bankruptcy not a bad thing for malls, says pro.

Liz Dunn, Pro4ma founder and CEO, and Charlie O’Shea, Moody’s retail analyst, discuss the future for Sears following its bankruptcy filing as well as who else in the sector stands to benefit.

My opinion of what the bankruptcy will do for malls is still the same as it was last Friday.  "It will sink a lot of malls, although some landlords will be able to lure more lucrative tenants (subscription required); the rich will get richer while the poor get poorer."  As for which competitors will benefit, I agree with the panel — Macy's, JCPenney, WalMart and Target for general purchases, Best Buy for electronics, and Amazon for people who want to shop online.

I conclude with CBS News giving a capsule history of the chain in How Sears went from innovation to bankruptcy.

Over its 130-year history, Sears has sold watches, clothes, farm machinery, appliances and even houses.

Looks like the company has been in decline for longer than I thought.  Wow, sad.

Vox on America's dying malls as failed third spaces

In the middle of the tale of revenge that is A snail story for Black Friday/Buy Nothing Day, I made the following bittersweet observation.

While many malls are in trouble or have closed, such as the Northland Mall next to where I teach, the Somerset Collection is still thriving.  One of these days, it will close, but not any time soon.

Vox noticed the wave of shopping mall failures in What America's shopping mall decline means for social space.

The mall was America’s third place — for better or for worse.
...
Our lives are lived in 1 of 3 places, the home, the workplace and the “third place,” which is anywhere outside of those two.
Toward the end of the 20th century, the regional shopping mall had become that third place, the hang-out spot in suburban America. This was largely by design — an immigrant architect created the first mall in the vision that it would be a community gathering place.
The plan didn’t work out as he intended. While malls did take off, they more often than not couldn’t quite catch on as ideal “third places.” But with an estimated 25% of shopping malls expected to close in the next five years, there’s an opportunity to re-examine where Americans spend their time and what could be the next iteration of the third place.

Oh, shiny!  Vox used clips from at least one of the two documentaries themselves recycled in The End of Suburbia.  I'd ask at the video if that's where they found those segments, but the comments section to the video has been overrun with trolls.  So much for chasing that shiny object.

More seriously, malls did not make ideal "third spaces" because they did not exhibit all eight characteristics.  The Steampunk fans ejected from San Diego area mall four years ago found that out the hard way.  They ran afoul of rules intended to keep gang members from frequenting the mall and scaring away shoppers.  As the KPBS article I quoted pointed out, "Malls are private property. They have the right to determine who shops there."  That means you!

Vox isn't the only YouTube creator to notice the decline of malls.  This is Dan Bell has an ongoing Dead Mall Series on the subject.  Here is the most recent installment: DEAD MALL SERIES : Palm Trees and Broken Dreams : West Oaks Mall : Ocoee, Florida. posted just three days ago.


I admit I find a certain macabre fascination to the series, which is on-topic for this blog.  I might return to it, as Bell has a video of two declining malls in Flint, Michigan, and another of an abandoned K-Mart.  That reminds me; K-Mart is closing stores and Toys R Us is going out of business.  Those are definitely topics for another day.

Double driving update for November 2016

Both cars turned over their odometers this week, so its time for a double driving update, just like the one I wrote for September.  Pearl passed 30,000 miles on Tuesday and Dez passed 53,000 miles on Wednesday.  After doing the calculations, Dez's odometer showed 52,000 miles on September 19, while Pearl's was at 29,000 on September 21 (happy birthday to me!)  Those mean that it took me 41 days for me to drive Pearl 1,000 miles and my wife 44 days to drive Dez the same distance.   That means I drove 24.39 miles/day and 743.90 miles/standard month while my wife traveled 22.73 miles/day and 693.18 miles/standard month over the past seven weeks.  Combined, we drove our cars 47.12 miles/day and 1437.08 miles/standard month since the last update.  Those are a lot more than the 17.54 miles per day and 535.1 (535.09) miles per standard month for Pearl, 6.90 miles per day and 210.34 miles per standard month for Dez, and combined 24.93 miles per day and 760.4 miles per standard month from September.  I drove as much during the past month-and-one-half as both of us drove during the previous two months!

So what changed?  I performed a lot of volunteering for the election, canvassing for candidates and dropping off lawn signs.  My wife visited our daughter in Chicago.  As long as gas is relatively cheap, we can afford to do things that are as high a priority as sustainability, such as family and politics.  The good news for our gas consumption is that the election is over and our daughter and her dogs will visit us for Thanksgiving.  In addition, I'll have fewer meetings to attend.  All that should reduce our driving considerably for the rest of the year, possibly even back to normal, which would be at or below 1,000 miles per month for both cars.

Our increased driving puts us in good company, as the Department of Transportation reported last month.

• Travel on all roads and streets changed by 3.4% (9.3 billion vehicle miles) for August 2016 as compared with August 2015.
• Travel for the month is estimated to be 284.9 billion vehicle miles.
• The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for August 2016 is 268.6 billion miles, a 2.5% (6.5 billion vehicle miles) increase over August 2015. It also represents a 0.8% decrease (-2.2 billion vehicle miles) compared with July 2016.
• Cumulative Travel for 2016 changed by 3.1% (65.3 billion vehicle miles).
• The cumulative estimate for the year is 2,152.4 billion vehicle miles of travel.

Calculated Risk displayed the data showing the increased miles driven for all Americans.


True, we actually did not contribute to the higher miles driven during August, as we actually drove less this August than last August, as I reported in Pearl's driving update for December 2015, but I'm sure we'll add to the increased driving for September through November.

Stay tuned for the Sunday entertainment entry.  Leave a comment here or surf over the the blog's Facebook page to vote for the topic of tomorrow's entry.  The choices are box office and reviews for the opening weekends of "Arrival" and "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them" and how they compare to "Doctor Strange," more on "Westworld," trailers for "Rogue One" and "Wonder Woman," marches for the winners of the Electoral College and the popular vote, or write-in votes for any other entertainment topic (ETA: such as the death of Leonard Cohen, whose music I've used twice).  I count those, as last Sunday's entry shows.  That was decided by one person.  It could be you.

Fall back tonight, even if it may not be good for you, either

Tonight is the end of Daylight Saving Time, so remember to fall back, at least for those devices that don't do so automatically.  In the meantime, enjoy this clip I promised eight months ago in Spring ahead for Daylight Saving Time 2016!>

All of us will get our missing hour back in November.  Just wait.  I'll even have another fake movie trailer for it.

Here it is, Daylight Saving - Movie Trailer.

This November, they call it Daylight Saving but the thing that needs saving...is us! WHAT TIME IS IT?! #DaylightSavingMovie

It turns out that, not only can Daylight Saving Time be inconvenient, but that falling back can be almost as bad for people as springing ahead.  Newsy has the story in Daylight saving time could be bad for your brain.

Researchers found setting the clock back for winter led to a spike in depression for some people.

I used to like Daylight Saving Time, but I'm beginning to wonder if the dozen states considering getting rid of it have the right idea.

Stay tuned for Entertainment Sunday.  As I did for Halloween, I'll put the topic up for a vote--movie trailers, "The Walking Dead," or "Westworld."

Dancing German witches for Halloween

I fell into an "I can't be all DOOM all the time" mood while writing WWF reports massive loss of wildlife populations, so I'm going to take advantage of the holiday weekend to post entries that are a little more fun.  I begin with these dancing German witches.

Die Wolfshäger Hexenbrut tanzt "Schüttle deinen Speck" zu Walpurgis 2016

Translation: "The Wolfshaeger Witches Brood dances to 'Shake Your Bacon' at Walpurgis 2016."  Yes, the song translates to "Shake Your Bootie."

I know that Walpurgis is really a holiday associated with May Day, but this video works better for a U.S. audience during Halloween.  Besides, as New York Magazine wrote, "These Witches Dancing...Are Having More Fun Than You."  We could use more fun in the middle of this election campaign.

Stay tuned for Entertainment Sunday.  Since "The Walking Dead" is on and it's Halloween weekend, expect zombies.

Regular falls below $2.00 in metro Detroit before Thanksgiving as predicted

I concluded Bye, Bobby! Jindal drops out with a program note.

Stay tuned for a gas price update.  Regular fell below $2.00 in my old neighborhood yesterday, just as I predicted it would do before Thanksgiving.

I made that prediction again in Limbo Kitty returns as prices fall to new post-summer lows, when I also noted that all the stations in my old neighborhood were selling regular for $2.19.  The price didn't fall over the next few weeks, as they inched up to $2.22 and then $2.25.  On Tuesday, a co-worker informed me that the price had fallen below $2.00.  Sure enough, regular was selling for $1.95 at all outlets.  I promptly filled up Pearl.

Limbo Kitty continues to dance, as GasBuddy shows that at least one of the two stations down the street from the old corner station has dropped its price for regular again to $1.88.  The station is merely tracking the Detroit average, which is currently $1.97.  Sub-two-dollar gas has arrived in my area by both criteria I use, the average in my old neighborhood and the GasBuddy average for Detroit.

Gas is cheap not only here, but across the state line in Indiana.  Yesterday, WSBT in South Bend posted Gas prices drop below two dollars to its YouTube channel.  Prices are even lower there.


Oil-Price.Net shows futures prices for oil and wholesale prices for gasoline are all down from last month, when WTI was at $45.55, Brent was at $48.71, and RBOB is selling for $1.28.  WTI closed yesterday at $40.75, Brent at $44.14, and RBOB at $1.27, all of which are actually slightly up from their closes on Tuesday.  Even so, watch for more Limbo Kitty between now and Christmas, as I expect gas to fall to $1.75 by then.  Stay tuned.

Gas prices slightly up in old neighborhood to begin fall

When I last reported on the local gasoline market, I observed that the gas price spike was a dead cat bounce.  The stations in my old neighborhood were all selling regular for $2.24.  I followed that with two entries about the lowest gas prices for Labor Day in 11 years.  I then passed along that gas was already below $2 near Grand Rapids and that GasBuddy showed the stations in my former neighborhood all selling regular for $2.19.  I never actually saw those prices, but I did see enough to say that they rose and are now falling.

Last Thursday, all the stations in my old stomping grounds were selling regular for $2.37.  I decided not to fill up, as I expected prices to fall.  They did.  Tuesday, the corner station listed regular for $2.27 and the two stations down the street displayed $2.29 for regular.  I filled up Pearl at the corner station and not a moment too soon, as the dashboard display said the car had only two miles of gas left.  This is exactly where the price should be, as the Detroit average is currently $2.37.  That's up from earlier this month, both from the $2.31 just before Labor Day and from the $2.24 on the 16th.  Therefore, I don't expect prices to go down this week.

Early next week might be another story.  Oil-Price.Net lists yesterday's closes for WTI and Brent at $44.48 and $47.75 respectively, close to the lows for the month so far for both.  In addition, RBOB is selling for $1.38, two cents lower than the first week of September.  Whatever is driving up the price of gas in Detroit, it's not the wholesale price of fuel.  Consequently, I'm still expecting either the price in my old neighborhood or the average price in Detroit to fall below $2.00 between Halloween and Thanksgiving.

Happy Autumnal Equinox 2015!

The Washington Post announces the exact moment in Say goodbye to summer as daylight dwindles, the fall equinox is on Wednesday.

Summer warmth has visited many parts of the country this September, but fall is finally in the air as we near the autumnal equinox. This year’s equinox occurs Sept. 23 at 4:21 a.m. Eastern time. At that time, the sun can be seen directly overhead along Earth’s equator, marking the beginning of astronomical fall in the Northern Hemisphere.

The fall equinox is one of only two days each year when all points on Earth outside the polar regions see the sun rise and set at due east and due west, along the horizon. And since neither hemisphere is tilted toward the sun, all latitudes see almost exactly 12 hours of daylight and darkness (though not quite).

Google has a special doodle for today, which is featured in Autumnal Equinox 2015 Google Doodle.


Once again, Happy Autumnal Equinox!

Vox on Sunday's zombies and vampires

It's in between the summer and fall TV seasons.  Shows like "Falling Skies," "Defiance," "The Last Ship," "Wayward Pines," and other summer TV fare have finished their seasons and the regular season TV shows haven't started up for the fall.  Fortunately, two shows that both depict a science-fiction undead apocalypse are filling the void on Sunday nights, "Fear the Walking Dead" and "The Strain."  For Entertainment Sunday, I'm sharing what Vox has to say about tonight's collapse-and-decline-related shows.

I start with the beginning of the zombie apocalypse in Fear the Walking Dead season 1, episode 2: The show moves as slowly as its zombies — and it works.

This is the way the world ends — with a bang and a whimper.

Most stories of the apocalypse skip us quickly past the early stages, where the worst could have been averted. There's good reason for this. The really interesting stuff usually involves how the characters survive, or what happens when society begins to rebuild.

Because it's a TV show, though, Fear the Walking Dead is taking its time. In my early review of the season, I called this a "slow-pocalypse," and "So Close, Yet So Far," the show's second episode, underlines this approach.

The episode has its bigger sequences — especially a protest against police treatment of a homeless man (who was, presumably, a turned zombie) — but it's mostly a very quiet episode about people realizing the world is going to hell all around them.

Still, the signs of imminent collapse are many.

One can see the signs of collapse all throughout this Sneak Peek: Episode 103: Fear the Walking Dead: The Dog.


That's as bad as I imagined Atlanta looking in the early days of the outbreak, when Rick was still in a coma and the action skipped ahead a month.

As for episode 2, it helped the viewers that they know what's coming and what to look for.  As for the characters, the poor souls have no clue other than Nick the addicted son, who was the first of the group to see a walker.  The second time he encountered one, he knew what to do, running it over repeatedly.  As my wife said, "Rick Grimes would be proud."  We have to watch the rest as they catch on.

Speaking of which, the following clip from AMC shows how Nick is still the savviest of the family, followed by his mom, who killed her own walker in episode 2: Sneak Peek: The Clarks: Episode 103: Fear the Walking Dead: The Dog.


Follow over the jump for Vox's review of last week's episode of "The Strain," which even they compare with "Fear the Walking Dead."

Gas below $2 near Grand Rapids

Looks like I'm not done with low and still falling gas prices.  First, I promised Limbo Kitty next time.  It's the next time, so Limbo Kitty returns.  Next, I predicted gas below $2.00 between Halloween and Thanksgiving.  That's here in metro Detroit.  In the outlying towns around Grand Rapids, that's already happened, as WOOD-TV reported Monday in Gas below $2/gallon in some cities Monday.

Experts say Monday’s gas prices were the lowest West Michigan has seen on Labor Day in almost a decade.

I always glad to see Patrick DeHaan interviewed; he is probably my favorite expert on gas prices.  Speaking of GasBuddy, it's showing the stations in my former neighborhood all selling regular for $2.19.  I said they'd drop their prices, and they did.  Right now, they're exactly a dime below the Detroit average of $2.29, which means they are currently competitively and appropriately priced.  Even so, prices should continue to drop, as the cheapest station in metro Detroit is selling regular for $1.95.  The average might dip below $2.00 before Halloween, but I'm not making that prediction yet.

The oil markets may push that along, though.  WTI ended trading last Thursday at $46.75 with Brent at $50.68.  Oil-Price.Net shows that both have declined since, with WTI closing Tuesday at $45.94 and Brent at $49.52.  Not only is oil down, but so is RBOB, which fell more than a penny to close at $1.40.  That will support gas below $2.00 in the lower overhead markets.  Whether Detroit is one of them remains to be seen.  Stay tuned.

More on low gas prices for Labor Day 2015

I posted the following as a comment on There Goes Europe at Kunstler's blog yesterday morning.

"You might think we would look at this cheap oil as an opportunity to build a world less dependent on oil, but instead we look on it as an opportunity to purchase gas guzzlers — the American Way will not be negotiated! Freedom!"

That's one of the points I made in lowest Labor Day gas prices in 11 years both good and bad; people are using the current conditions as an excuse to buy less efficient vehicles.  Within a couple of years, that will likely prove to be folly, either because the price of gas will shoot up again or because the U.S. will go into recession and a lot of those people will lose their jobs.  Either way, they won't be able to afford their cars.  Making that argument now won't make much of an impression.  The locals are too happy that the recent gas price spike turned out to be a dead cat bounce.

As if on cue, I saw two more videos pop up on YouTube expanding on most of my points.

Lowest Labor Day gas prices in 11 years both good and bad

Not only was the gas price spike a dead cat bounce, but gas prices during Labor Day weekend are the lowest they've been in 11 years.  Wochit News reports on the resulting windfall for U.S. consumers in Labor Day Gas Price Bonus: $1.4 Billion.

Labor Day is historically one of America's busiest driving holidays, but this year it's likely to be remembered for being one of the cheapest.

With gas prices continuing to move lower, the national average for a gallon of gas this Labor Day is expected to fall to $2.44, marking the lowest price at the pump since 2004.

By the time the last charcoals have cooled on the barbecue, Americans will have saved a collective $1.4 billion compared with last year.

That in turn could result in more consumer spending on eating out at restaurants and other extras.

If so, that would be good news, exactly the kind that would offset decreases in spending from the recent stock market correction.

Follow over the jump for more good and bad news caused by this year's lower oil prices from Wayne State University and the University of Michigan.

Gas price spike a dead cat bounce

It was only three weeks ago that I wrote the following in Gas price spike prompts outrage and analysis.

A few days ago, the Detroit average was $2.86.  According to Gas Buddy, it's now $3.03, the highest price of the year.  Given that Oil-Price.Net lists yesterday's close for [WTI] as $42.50, and the close the day before was $42.25, a dollar lower than it had been the last time I checked, that does come off as outrageous.

All of that price spike and then some have now disappeared, as Gas Buddy lists the Detroit average as $2.31.  I could tell it was finished earlier this week, when I was able to buy regular in my new neighborhood for $2.39, which was the metro Detroit average at the time.  A few days earlier, I coudn't find regular anywhere near me for less than $2.74.

Gas was even cheaper in my old neighborhood.  When I was last there, regular sold for $2.54, a low enough price to make me declare  Limbo Kitty returns as oil and gas fall more to close July.  Prices had declined to $2.41 before spiking in time for Dream Cruise, but that was all gone yesterday, when I found all the stations in my old stomping grounds selling regular for $2.24.  That might actually be overpriced, as the stations historically set their price a dime below the metro area average, so they could drop it down to $2.21.  One station a few miles away is already selling regular for $2.19, so the gas war is on.

As for what the near-term future holds, I'll repeat what I wrote three years ago: Eye spy the gas price rollercoaster about to coast down like a parachute.  This is despite oil prices bouncing off their lows for the year so far.  Ten days ago, WTI closed below $40 and Brent about $42.50.*  Yesterday, WTI ended trading at $46.75 and Brent at $50.68.  They may be up eight dollars in a little over a week, but those are still low enough prices to support regular below $2.00 during winter.  Seasonal trends will make sure of that, especially after Labor Day, which is only three days away.  When they do, watch for another return of Limbo Kitty.

*I should probably comment on the state of the stock market.  Be patient; I shall.

Limbo Kitty returns as oil and gas fall more to close July

I opened and closed Oil falls to lowest prices since March with the state of the local retail gas market and the prospects for lower prices.

When I checked Gas Buddy two weeks ago, the stations in my old neighborhood were selling regular for $2.76.  Tonight, it shows them at $2.65.  Furthermore, the Detroit average has fallen to $2.72, 21 cents below the $2.93 it was at two weeks ago.  It appears likely to fall even more...watch for continuing falling prices at the pump and the return of Limbo Kitty.  Happy motoring!

Yesterday, I had an errand that took me near my old neighborhood and its cheap gas stations, so I drove the Prius to fill up.  The corner station and one of the two down the street were selling regular for $2.56 and a third was selling it for $2.55.  I filled up the Prius at the lowest price station, which should last me another 400+ miles.  By the time my new car needs another fill-up, I'll be teaching in the area and prices should be even lower.

Prices have continued to drop, as Gas Buddy shows that all of those stations lowered their prices last night by another penny and the station where I fueled up dropped its price even lower this afternoon to $2.51.  They are all pursuing the Detroit average, which was $2.62 yesterday and sank to $2.61 today.  Crude oil and seasonal price patterns will pull prices down even more.  Last Friday, WTI was selling for 48.14 and Brent for $54.62.  The same day, RBOB gasoline futures settled below the 200-day moving average of $1.8514, and they were even lower yesterday at $1.83.  While the downward trend reversed itself with a dead cat bounce of $48.52 for WTI as listed on Oil-Price.Net, Brent's fall continued unabated to $53.31 yesterday.  The slide became even more precipitous today, as the Reuters headline read Oil drops for fifth week; U.S. crude in biggest monthly fall since 2008.

U.S. crude posted its biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis on Friday after a string of losses in July triggered by China's stock market slump and signs that top Middle East producers were pumping crude at record levels.

A higher U.S. oil rig count for a second straight week added to the market's downside Friday despite a weaker dollar, which would normally support commodities.
...
U.S. crude settled down $1.40, or almost 3 percent, at $47.32 a barrel. It slid more than 2 percent on the week.

Through July, U.S. crude was down 21 percent, its largest monthly decline since October 2008, when oil had an epic collapse at the outbreak of the financial crisis.

Brent settled down $1.10, or 2 percent, at $52.21 a barrel. It lost 5 percent on the week and 18 percent on the month.

Oil has continued to fall after the U.S. market closed.  It's time for Limbo Kitty to return.

Gas falls as I expected while oil inches up

The previous report told the story Gas stabilizes as oil bounces around.

[T]he corner station lowered its price to $2.39, matching the rest of the neighborhood outlets.  That written, all of them are priced too high, as GasBuddy shows the Detroit average at $2.36.  Based on historical patterns, the stations should be a dime lower than that at $2.26.  That would be an odd price, so I expect $2.29, a dime less than their current price, within the week as long as there is no jump in local average prices.

That was exactly the price of gas at all four stations in my old neighborhood when I drove through yesterday, including the corner station.  I called it.  I also filled up Ruby to take advantage of the lower price.

As for oil, the day after the previous gas price report, which reported WTI at $50.09 and Brent at $57.10, Iran nuclear deal eases fear premium listed both indexes falling, WTI at $49.14 and Brent at $54.95 a barrel.  Prices went back up, as OilPrice.Net shows that both have regained all of their losses from last week and then some, with WTI closing today at $53.98 and Brent ending the session at $59.10.  The fear premium may be gone, but there are plenty of other reasons for oil to increase in price.

Predicting the future of gas prices may be difficult, as the local retail environment and the commodities market are going in different directions.  The Detroit average sat yesterday at $2.34, so the stations could drop as much as a nickel.  On the other hand, the national average seems to have hit bottom at $2.39, so prices may be preparing to go up.  In addition, the spot price of RBOB went up yesterday along with crude oil, rising nearly 1% to close at $1.86.  If the commodity prices continue to go up or hold steady, they will pull retail prices up.  The only question is how long.  Stay tuned.

Gas stabilizes as oil bounces around

I drove through my old neighborhood the day before yesterday, so it's time for a gas price update.  Last week's subject line read Gas and oil move up, but still relatively low.

The corner station had dropped its price, but only five cents to $2.44 for regular.  Meanwhile, the three stations down the street raised theirs to $2.39 for regular.  According to GasBuddy, these prices are just a touch higher than usual for the neighborhood, as they were only three cents below the Detroit average of $2.42 instead of a dime lower.  Prices may or may not drop, but they shouldn't increase over the next week unless oil moves up sharply.

They didn't increase.  In fact, the corner station lowered its price to $2.39, matching the rest of the neighborhood outlets.  That written, all of them are priced too high, as GasBuddy shows the Detroit average at $2.36.  Based on historical patterns, the stations should be a dime lower than that at $2.26.  That would be an odd price, so I expect $2.29, a dime less than their current price within the week as long as there is no jump in local average prices.

What about oil?  Last week, there was some movement up.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed up today $1.70 to $49.21, while Brent jumped up $1.37 to $56.48.  That's five dollars higher than last week but still nowhere near as high as they were this time last week.

OilPrice.Net shows a little movement up over the past week, but the price has generally been bouncing around.  Yesterday, WTI rose $2.49 to close at $50.09, while Brent increased $1.99 to end trading at $57.10.  That wasn't enough to push gas up at the pump.  Quite to the contrary, average retail prices have declined over the past week.  In addition to Detroit falling from $2.42 to $2.36, the U.S. average declined from $2.43 to $2.41 and the Michigan average sank from $2.52 on March 23rd to $2.33 yesterday.

Finally, it's time to revisit the predictions I repeated last week.

I'll repeat what I wrote last month week: "As long as oil stays at these levels, Detroit and Michigan averages over $2.50 by the end of the month seem unlikely."

Instead, a different prediction looks more likely, one I made in December: "Expect prices at the pump to remain below $3.00 until at least March, if not later."  That one is almost a lock.

Michigan barely had average prices over $2.50 for a grand total of two days, then fell; Detroit's average never made it there.  On the other hand, prices are still below $3.00.  No April Fools there.