Friday, August 14, 2026

'The Muppet Show' leads Taylor Swift and 'Wicked' for Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) at the Emmys


I'm continuing my awards show coverage with a category I foreshadowed in Bad Bunny's Super Bowl Halftime Show leads Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmys, Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded). Here are the nominees at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.
Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
  • Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... (Netflix)
  • The Muppet Show (Disney+)
  • Nikki Glaser: Good Girl (Hulu)
  • Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show (Disney+)
  • Wicked: One Wonderful Night (NBC)
The Muppet Show and Wicked: One Wonderful Night co-lead with six nominations each, followed by Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show with five, Nikki Glaser: Good Girl with three, and Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... with two. Gold Derby's prediction page for the Creative Arts Emmy Awards also has The Muppet Show leading with 90% of experts, 33.3% of editors, and 71.3% of users electing it to win. They reverse Wicked: One Wonderful Night and Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show as the latter has the vote of the remaining 10% of experts and 66.7% of editors plus 18.0% while the former only has the support of 8.2% of users. The professionals are split! The users also reverse Nikki Glaser: Good Girl and Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... with the former ranked fifth at 0.8% and the latter in fourth with 1.6%.

Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance
  • Pamela Adlon – King of the Hill: "Any Given Hill-Day" as Bobby Hill (Hulu)
  • Julie Andrews – Bridgerton: "The Waltz" as Lady Whistledown (Netflix)
  • Hank Azaria – The Simpsons: "Keep Chalm and Gary On" as Gary Chalmers (Fox)
  • Trey Parker – South Park: "The Crap Out" as Satan (Comedy Central)
  • Matt Vogel – The Muppet Show as Kermit the Frog (Disney+)
  • Steven Yeun – Invincible: "Don't Leave Me Hanging Here" as Mark Grayson / Invincible (Prime Video)
Julie Andrews leads with every expert, 66.7% of editors, and 79.6% of Gold Derby users selecting her to win. She's followed by Pamela Adlon with the remaining 33.3% of editors and 12.4% of users. The rest of the users are split among Trey Parker with 4.4%, Matt Vogel with 1.8%, then Hank Azaria and Steven Yeun tied at 0.9%.
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
  • Chris Fleming: Live at the Palace – Chris Fleming (HBO)
  • The Muppet Show – Albertina Rizzo, Gabe Liedman, Nedaa Sweiss, Kelly Younger, and Andrew Williams (Disney+)
  • Nikki Glaser: Good Girl – Nikki Glaser (Hulu)
  • The Oscars – Amberia Allen, Jose Arroyo, Josh Comers, Dan Cronin, Jessie Gaskell, Skyler Higley, Berkley Johnson, Ian Karmel, Brian Kiley, Laurie Kilmartin, Carol Leifer, Todd Levin, Jon Macks, Conan O'Brien, Matt O'Brien, Agathe Panaretos, Mike Sweeney, Levi MacDougall, and Eric Roth (ABC)
  • Wanda Sykes: Legacy – Wanda Sykes (Netflix)
Gold Derby predicts The Muppet Show will win this award, too, with every editor, 50% of editors, and 87.9% of users picking it. The remaining 50% of editors and 4.3% of users chose Chris Fleming: Live at the Palace to upset. The rest of the user vote is split among Nikki Glaser: Good Girl at 6.9% and Wanda Sykes: Legacy at 0.9%. The Oscars have no support at all!

Now for the categories I covered in Bad Bunny's Super Bowl Halftime Show leads Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmys beginning with two that Gold Derby handicapped.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special
  • The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Hamish Hamilton (NBC)
  • Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... – Rikki Hughes (Netflix)
  • Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: The Final Show – Glenn Weiss (Disney+)
  • 78th Annual Tony Awards – Glenn Weiss (CBS)
  • Wanda Sykes: Legacy – Julie Dash (Netflix)
Once again, every expert and editor plus 94.3% of users have Hamish Hamilton taking home the statuette. Glenn Weiss for both Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: The Final Show and 78th Annual Tony Awards ties himself at 2.9% each, so he has a combined 6.8 5.8% chance, while no one thinks Rikki Hughes for Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... and Julie Dash for Wanda Sykes: Legacy have a chance.
Despite my using the Twitter/X publicity image for Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable..., Gold Derby still thinks its director has no chance. On the other hand, users are trickling away from The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny to Glenn Weiss's projects, splitting their votes evenly at 3.5% for 7% total. I'm not convinced.
Outstanding Music Direction
  • The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Miguel Gandelman (NBC)
  • The Late Show with Stephen Colbert: "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Series Finale" – Louis Cato (CBS)
  • The Oscars – Michael Bearden (ABC)
  • Saturday Night Live: "Host: Jack Black" – Lenny Pickett, Leon Pendarvis, Eli Brueggemann, and Maddie Rice (NBC)
  • Wicked: One Wonderful Night – Stephen Oremus (NBC)
For the third and final time, every expert and editor along with 90.1% of users think The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny will win, giving Miguel Gandelman an Emmy. Wicked: One Wonderful Night notched 9.1% of users, The Oscars 0.8%, and the rest of the field earned no votes at all.
This may be Wicked: One Wonderful Night's best shot at winning, but even here user opinion is consolidating around The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny with 91.6% and all the rest with Wicked: One Wonderful Night at 8.4%. The users have abandoned The Oscars, which has joined the rest of the field without any votes at all.

Follow over the jump for the craft categories.

Outstanding Production Design for a Variety Special
  • The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Bruce Rodgers, Shelley Rodgers, Lily Rodgers, Julio Himede, and Leticia Leon (NBC)
  • The 68th Annual Grammy Awards – Julio Himede, Kristen Merlino, Gloria Lamb, Ellen Jaworski, Scott Welborn, and Kaydee Lavorin (CBS)
  • The Muppet Show – Denise Pizzini, Chet Maxwell, Robert Aguirre, and Bethany Barton (Disney+)
  • The Oscars – Misty Buckley, Alana Billingsley, John Zuiker, and Jonathan Stoller-Schoff (ABC)
  • 78th Annual Tony Awards – Steve Bass, Star Theodos Kahn, and Aaron Black (CBS)
Normally, I'd go with The Oscars, last year's winner, but the halftime show's set design was so elaborate and detailed that I think it will win.
Outstanding Choreography for Variety or Reality Programming (Juried)
  • The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny: "Casita Medley" / "EoO" / "Nuevayol" – Charm La'Donna and Karina Ortiz (NBC)
  • 2025 MTV Video Music Awards: "Tate McRae Performance" – Robbie Blue (CBS)
  • The Oscars: "Golden" – Mandy Moore (ABC)
  • RuPaul's Drag Race: "Versatile" / "Stimulate" / "What's in a Ball?" – Jamal Sims (MTV)
  • Wicked: One Wonderful Night: "The Wizard and I" – Christopher Scott (NBC)
I'll wait until I after examine the nominees for Outstanding Variety Special (Recorded) and Outstanding Reality Competition Program to make a call.
Until then, enjoy Cynthia Erivo | The Wizard And I | Wicked: One Wonderful Night 2025 | REMASTERED 4K.

Cynthia Erivo's Performance Of The Wizard And I From The Movie Wicked: One Wonderful Night 2025
Erivo's singing is stunning, but I used to be a marching band visual judge and I'm not impressed with the dancing.
Outstanding Hairstyling for a Variety, Nonfiction, or Reality Program (Juried)
  • The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Brian Steven Banks, Mariah Montes, Maaliq Amadeus Elliott, Shian Banks, Yvette Shelton, Iraina Crenshaw, Nikki Wright, and Paula Ashby (NBC)
  • Dancing with the Stars: "Disney Night" – Kimi Messina, Marion Rogers, Joe Matke, Florence Witherspoon, Jerilynn Stephens, Amber Nicholle Maher, Brittany Spaulding, and Regina Rodriguez (ABC)
  • RuPaul's Drag Race: "The Rate-a-Queen Talent Show, Part 2" – Suzette Boozer, and Henry Sanchez (MTV)
  • Saturday Night Live: "Host: Glen Powell" – Jodi Mancuso, Cara Hannah, Inga Thrasher, Amanda Duffy Evans, Chad Harlow, Gina Ferrucci, Jennifer Serio, and Katie Beatty (NBC)
  • Wicked: One Wonderful Night – Edward Morrison, R'riyana Kline, Tiffany Bloom, Lillie S. Frierson, Cyndra Dunn, Sharif Poston, Lisa Long, and Deborah Pierce (NBC)
This is the first category I think Bad Bunny's team will lose, as it's competing against SNL, winner of the past two years.
I'm more positive about the hairstyling for Wicked: One Wonderful Night than the nominated choreography.
Outstanding Lighting Design / Lighting Direction for a Special
  • The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Al Gurdon, Ben Green, Harry Forster, Mark Humphrey, Eric Marchwinski, Alen Sisul, Lee Spencer, and Jason Rudolph (NBC)
  • 68th Annual Grammy Awards – Noah Mitz, Madigan Stehly, William Gossett, Hannah Kerman, Andy O'Reilly, Patrick Boozer, Ryan Tanker, Erin Anderson, Matt Benson, Matthew Cotter, Terrance Ho, and Guy Jones (CBS)
  • The Oscars – Robert A. Dickinson, Noah Mitz, Ryan Tanker, William Gossett, Jeff Behm, Tyler Ericson, Hannah Kerman, Andy O'Reilly, Akash Bartlett, Guy Jones, Kevin Faust, and Terrance Ho (ABC)
  • 78th Annual Tony Awards – Robert A. Dickinson, Ed McCarthy, Tyler Ericson, Madigan Stehly, Harry Sangmeister, Chris Moeller, Jason Rudolph, JM Hurley, and Ka Lai Wong (CBS)
  • Wicked: One Wonderful Night – Bryan Klunder, Noah Mitz, Andrew O'Reilly, Patrick Boozer, Ryan Healey, Alen Sisul, Mike Hankowsky, and Jason Rudolph (NBC)
The Grammy Awards won last year, so it could repeat. I'll reserve my final judgment until after I blog about recorded variety specials.
I think it's between the GRAMMies and the Super Bowl Halftime Show, especially if the Television Academy feels like giving the latter a sweep. Bring out the broom?

Outstanding Sound Mixing for a Variety Series or Special
  • The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Thomas Holmes, Alex Guessard, Dave Natale, Christian Schrarder, Thomas Pesa, and Pablo Munguia (NBC)
  • The Late Show with Stephen Colbert: "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Series Finale" – Jim Murray, Harvey Goldberg, Greg Allen, and Alan Bonomo (CBS)
  • The Muppet Show – Christopher Neely, John Chamberlin, Sean Madsen, Jordan McClain, Sanaa Kelley, Sam Sgriccia, and David Michel-Rudy (Disney+)
  • The Oscars – Paul Sandweiss, Tommy Vicari, Biff Dawes, Steve Genewick, Pablo Munguia, Patrick Baltzell, Mike Parker, Tom Pesa, John Perez, Shane O'Connor, and Kristian Pedregon (ABC)
  • Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: The Final Show – David Payne and John Ross (Disney+)
I'd say this is between Bad Bunny and Taylor Swift. May the bigger pop star win!
Outstanding Technical Direction and Camerawork for a Special
  • The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Rod Wardell, Eric Becker, Dylan Sanford, Rob Balton, Danny Bonilla, Keith Dicker, Sean Flannery, Jeremy Freeman, Kevin French, Helena Jackson, Martin Kitchen, Bettina Levesque, David Plakos, Matt Roe, Jofre Rosero, Keyan Safyari, Monte Seaborn, Matt Trujillo, Brad Zerbst, Scott Acosta, Santiago Benet, Gilberto Cruz, Robert Smith, Cody Taylor, Kevin Denning, Andrew Moore, Rick Compeau, Su-Jeng Sang, Chris Hill, Matt Conrad, and Adam Lighterman (NBC)
  • The Oscars – Eric Becker, John Pritchett, Kenneth Shapiro, Rod Wardell, Shaun Harkins, Danny Bonilla, Nathanial Havholm, Bobby del Russo, Helena Jackson, Sean Flannery, Dave Kanehann, Jay Kulick, Adam Margolis, David Plakos, Jofre Rosero, Keyan Safyari, Dylan Sanford, Matt Trujillo, Suzie Weis, Mark Whitman, Easter Xua, Scott Marshall, and Tore Livia (ABC)
  • Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction 2025 – Eric Becker, Dylan Sanford, David Rudd, Jofre Rosero, Easter Xua, Nathanial Havholm, John Porter, Sean Flannery, Zachariah Jones, Dave Levisohn, Kary D'Alessandro, Jeff Johnson, Rob Palmer, David Eastwood, Danny Bonilla, Danny Webb, Keith Dicker, Chad Smith, David Plakos, and Jeremy Freeman (ABC)
  • Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: The Final Show – Eric Becker, Brett Turnbull, Danny Bonilla, Mike Dinsmore, Chris Ferguson, Josh Fisch, Sean Flannery, Freddie Frederick, Shane Geddes, Manny Gutierrez, Jonny Harkins, Shaun Harkins, Christopher Johnson, Jeff Johnson, Ian Kerr, Jay Kulick, Tore Livia, Gallant Ly, Adam Margolis, Steve Martyniuk, Rob Palmer, Karin Pelloni, David Plakos, Carly Plett, Tim Quigley, Brian Reason, Paul Sapsis, Kate Smith, Jim van Dijk, Victor Wong, and Rich York (Disney+)
  • Wicked: One Wonderful Night – Brandon Smith, Brett Turnbull, Rob Palmer, Karin Pelloni, Bobby del Russo, Cary Symmons, Dean Clish, Jorge Ferris, Suzanne Ebner, Andrew Georgeopoulos, Danny Bonilla, Chad Smith, Jonny Harkins, Alex Hernandez, Rob Vuona, Scott Acosta, Randy Gomez Jr., Jeremy Freeman, and Tim Farmer (NBC)
I'm holding off until I examine the recorded variety specials to call this, too.
I think live events have an advantage, all things being equal, so my choices are the Oscars and the Super Bowl Halftime Show.

I close with a category I haven't covered before.
Outstanding Picture Editing for Variety Programming
  • The Muppet Show – Kelly Lyon (Disney+)
  • Nikki Glaser: Good Girl – Guy Harding (Hulu)
  • Ramy Youssef: In Love – Joanna Naugle (HBO)
  • Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show – Dom Whitworth, Rupa Rathod, Benjamin Wainwright-Pearce, Michael Heubel, and Hamish Lyons (Disney+)
  • Wanda Sykes: Legacy – Angela Gamboa Bryant (Netflix)
I'm going with my intuition, which says The Muppet Show will win.

That's a wrap for this installment. Stay tuned as I take a break from awards show coverage by celebrating World Honey Bee Day tomorrow and covering a non-awards story for the Sunday entertainment feature.

Previous posts about the 2026 Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards
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