We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives.
In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome than their lackluster 2022 performance, and we end in Alaska. Grab your favorite snacks and get in!
Hearing Nathaniel Rakich and the rest of the panel discuss how Republicans overperformed in New York Congressional contests reminds me of how much differently those elections turned out than expected when I wrote FiveThirtyEight and Sabato's Crystal Ball examine Congressional redistricting in New York State. Two years ago, I quoted Sabato's Crystal Ball, which wrote "If the Democratic plan pans out as intended, the number of Republicans in the New York delegation will shrink from 8 of 27 to 4 of 26." It didn't work out as intended. That map got overturned and replaced with a court-drawn map that eliminated Democratic advantages. Add in a local red wave, and the Republicans won almost enough seats in the Empire State to flip the House of Representatives all by themselves. If the original map had been maintained, then the chamber likely wouldn't have flipped; all else being equal, Democrats would have retained control.
The court-ordered map has since been replaced by one that was created by the redistricting commission and approved by the state's legislature and modestly favors Democrats. That might help return the U.S. House to the Democrats. Then again, maybe not, as three seats in North Carolina are likely to flip back to the Republicans, while one seat each in Alabama, Mississippi, and New York will elect Democrats, while Georgia shows no change. That will be a wash. Democrats will have to count on California to regain their House majority and hope Alaska doesn't flip. Even so, the House looks better than the Senate for Democrats.
Marijuana legalization is a cause I've been following since at least 2012, when I posted Meanwhile, at the bottom of the ballot. I wrote then "I told one of my students that there would be two changes in his lifetime propelled by his generation--marijuana legalization and marriage equality." The past dozen plus years have proved that prediction correct. Here's to that coming true in Florida and carrying re-legalizing abortion along with it.
I'm encouraged that Elissa Slotkin to replace Debbie Stabenow and Ruben Gallego to replace Kyrsten Sinema are favored to win their Senate contests in Michigan and Arizona, respectively, but I wish Kamala Harris was running even with both of them. Sigh.
That's my reaction to FiveThirtyEight's virtual road trip. Follow over the jump for my personal driving update.
Pearl took 49 days, exactly seven weeks, between Wednesday August 28, 2024 and Wednesday October 16, 2024 to drive 1,000 miles. That translates to averages of 20.41 miles per day, 622.45 miles per standard month, 7,448.98 miles per standard year, and 7,469.39 miles per leap year. That's a lot more than the 11.63 miles per day, 354.65 miles per standard accounting month, 4,244.19 miles per standard year, and 4,255.81 per leap year I drove her between Monday (not Wednesday) June 3, 2024 and August 28, 2024. On the other hand, it's exactly the same amount I drove her during the comparable period last year, which ended on October 18, 2023. As I wrote then, "I can account for some of the jump by driving to three campuses in a week during the Fall Semester instead of just one during the Summer Semester and some of the rest because of detours because of construction, but I'm at a loss to account for the rest unless I'm running more errands, too." Nothing like being a good environmentalist and recycling.
In another kind of year-over-year comparison, it took me 364 days to drive 5,000 miles between October 18, 2023 and October 16, 2024. That results in averages of 13.74 miles per day, 418.96 miles per standard month, 5,013.74 miles per standard year, and 5,027.47 per leap year. That's only slightly more than the 13.70 miles per day, 417.81 miles per month, exactly 5,000 miles per standard year, and 5,013.70 miles per leap year I drove Pearl between August 29, 2023 and August 28, 2024. Despite the seasonal spike, I'm still keeping my mileage nearly constant and well below the 7,000 miles per year I drove Pearl during 2017. That was my goal and I'm still making it.
That's a wrap for October's driving update. Stay tuned for Sweetest Day.
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