Elissa Slotkin on 'The Daily Show' plus her being the most 'establishment' Senator

I closed the body of Colbert, Meyers, Kosta, and Kimmel take closer looks at Mike Waltz being fired on Flashback Friday with a recycled program note.

I mentioned that "Slotkin has replaced Kyrsten Sinema as the most 'Establishment' Senator caucusing with Democrats. That deserves a post of its own" in Stewart, Meyers, Colbert, and Kimmel take closer looks at Trump's first 100 days for Wayback Wednesday. I might write that tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Here's the clip that inspired me to write that, Sen. Elissa Slotkin - Alpha Energy, Tuning In & Responsible vs. Reckless Change | The Daily Show.

“We don’t have the right to tune out when previous generations fought and fought and fought.” Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin, the youngest Democratic female serving in the U.S. Senate, joins Michael Kosta to share her perspective on the current state of national security and the Democratic agenda moving forward. The senator explains why voters are looking for Democrats with alpha energy (“You don’t have to be a male to [have] alpha energy,” she says), how President Trump’s tariff policy is “slow-rolling us into a recession,” responsible vs. reckless change, and the importance of tuning in during challenging times.

I think Senator Slotkin did well in one of the friendlier interviews I've seen on The Daily Show — fellow Michigander Jordan Klepper might have been as cordial, but Desi Lydic and especially Jon Stewart might have grilled her harder — but Kosta avoided asking about her suggesting that Democrats should avoid mentioning oligarchy, which got Bernie Sanders and AOC to tell her off. It also garnered a lot of hostile comments on the YouTube upload, only one of which I'll repeat, eyuin5716: "Slotkin needs to go home. I’m not interested in playing footsie with the modern day Kyrstin Sinema." EYuin, you have no idea, especially which Senator Sinema, the Democrat or the independent, you're comparing Slotkin to. If it's Sinema the Democrat, the better comparison in the current Senate would be John Fetterman, who Voteview describes as "the most conservative Democrat of the 119th Senate." He's moved up and to the right since 2024. If it's Sinema the independent, then you're on to something. Slotkin is not only the youngest female Democratic Senator, she's also the most "establishment" (conservative on Voteview's second dimension) Senator, Democrat, Republican, or independent. Look at the chart below.


This is nearly identical to her position on the second dimension when she was in the House, so her Senate voting record should come as no surprise.


It should also come as no surprise that Slotkin would come into conflict with AOC, who, along with the rest of "The Squad," are at the opposite extreme along the second dimension, making them the most anti-establishment members of the House. The establishment politician would support the current power structure, especially regarding national security and foreign policy, while the anti-establishment ones would oppose it. The current power structure would oppose mentioning oligarchy, while its opponents would make it a central issue.

I have two "for what it's worth" observations about this. First, at least between Slotkin and "The Squad," this is not a Left-Right (first dimension in Voteview) issue. Slotkin's ideological (first dimension) score both as a Senator and as a House member is -0.338, more conservative than 63% of Democrats in the 119th Senate and more conservative than 65% of Democrats in the 118th House. In contrast, AOC's ideological score is -0.319, more conservative than 66% of Democrats in the 119th House and 71% of Democrats in the 118th House. Yes, AOC is to the right of Slotkin, at least according to Voteview's algorithm. Surprise!

Second, this is a fight over tactics and tone, not goals. Slotkin, Sanders, and "The Squad" all oppose Donald "Hoover Cleveland" Trump and the threat to democracy and the rule of law he poses; they're just arguing over the most effective way to do so.

Stay tuned to see if I blog about Star Wars Day or the highlights of tonight's Saturday Night Live. Maybe I can do both!

Nikki Haley drops out after Super Tuesday

The big news from Super Tuesday is Nikki Haley dropping out. CNN has the story in Nikki Haley will exit GOP presidential race, clearing path for Donald Trump.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will announce that she is exiting the Republican presidential race, according to sources familiar with her plans, clearing the path for former President Donald Trump.

I'm slightly surprised that she dropped out now, as she finally won two primaries, in D.C. on Sunday and Vermont last night. On the other hand, I can't say I'm actually disappointed, as I had tweeted in late January that she might drop out after losing South Carolina and would be lucky to last until Super Tuesday. Despite her primary victories, her luck and, more importantly, her money ran out.

With that, I'm recycling my reaction from 'SNL' opens with a Trump victory party after the South Carolina Republican Primary, itself an upcycled response.

I'm recycling my comment from George Santos sues Jimmy Kimmel and Trump sells sneakers for the other hand.

Nikki Haley is staying in for the same reasons Liz Cheney is opposing Trump: "As I wrote in July 2022, 'In Liz Cheney's case, she'd like her pre-2015 Republican Party back. I doubt she'll get it any time soon, so she'll settle for damaging TFG instead. I wish her luck.' She's certainly doing her best." Too bad her best won't be good enough to win the nomination.

But it might be enough to damage Trump. I hope she's happy with that. I know I am.

I think Haley will most likely end up endorsing Donald Trump, but it will be late and lukewarm when it occurs. A less likely scenario is that she ends up on the No Labels ticket, should they actually decide to run a candidate in the general election. If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if Kyrsten Sinema joins her on that ticket, now that she's announced her retirement from the Senate. I might get to that news later.

That brings me to Morning Joe on MSNBC looking ahead in Mika: With Haley set to drop out, the general election essentially starts today.

The Morning Joe panel discusses Trump's latest inflammatory rhetoric and news that Nikki Haley is set to suspend her presidential campaign.

I agree, although I still plan on continuing my marching music for primaries and caucuses series. Those will go on, even if the presidential nominating contests are essentially over.

I might add a report on Haley's remarks later today. Until then, I'm concluding by retiring the graph I made for Haley in Marianne Williamson and Nikki Haley, two women running for President on International Women's Day.

Now for Nikki Haley at On The Issues. She has an economic score of 88 and a social score of 25. On The Issues describes her as a Libertarian-Leaning Conservative. This makes her less conservative socially than either TFG or DeSantis, but to the right of both economically. TFG has an economic score of 83 and a social score of 20, while DeSantis has an economic score of 85 and a social Score of 13. On The Issues considers both of them to be Hard-Core Conservatives.

I'm also retiring, for now, the drink I suggested for her in FiveThirtyEight asks 'Who is Nikki Haley?'

I'm being a good environmentalist by recycling the South Carolina Swizzle Cocktail - The Proper Pour with Charlotte Voisey - Small Screen, which I used for Lindsey Graham.

Inspired by the delicious produce of South Carolina and Georgia, Charlotte created the South Carolina Swizzle Cocktail to celebrate one of her favorite regions of the United States. Served in a julep style, this refreshing libation is perfect as a summer sipper.

Remember, great cocktails start with measuring responsibly.
Recipe:
1 1/2 parts Hendrick's Gin - Watch The Unusual Times: http://bit.ly/hendricks_reservebar
1/2 part Bitter Truth Apricot Liqueur
3/4 part fresh lime juice
3/4 part simple syrup
1/4 part Yellow Chartreuse

Instructions:
Shake ingredients with ice.
Strain over crushed ice into hurricane or tall glass.
Garnish with a mint sprig.

Pour one out for Haley's campaign and possibly even for her future in the Republican Party.

Debt ceiling bill approved by Senate, sent to President Biden for signature

Yesterday's news was House votes to approve debt ceiling deal, on to the Senate. Today, as MSNBC reported on "The 11th Hour," the news is Senate passes debt limit bill.

After debating a series of amendments, the Senate passed the debt ceiling deal struck by President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The bill now heads to Biden’s desk for a signature as Monday’s debt deadline approaches.

As the preview image shows, the bill passed 66 to 36, with one Senator absent. It now goes to President Joe Biden to sign, which he will do this weekend after addressing the country at 7 P.M. EDT tonight. As I wrote yesterday, crisis averted!

With that out of the way, follow over the jump as I look for the devil in the details, one of the punchlines in the Satan Sandwich cartoon that served as the period on yesterday's post.

No Labels could field third-party candidate next year

I think the debt ceiling deal is such a fast-moving target that anything I write about it now will have the shelf life of milk in the sun, so I'm following through on my promise to examine No Labels' effort to gain ballot access in next year's elections. I begin with Stephanie Ruhle and her guests on MSNBC's "The 11th Hour" discussing Independent group 'No Labels' could field third-party candidate in 2024.

The centrist group “No Labels” is ramping up efforts to put a third party candidate on the ballot in 2024, but Democrats say this could help Donald Trump.

I'm glad I waited until MSNBC uploaded this segment, as it gave someone associated with No Labels a chance to respond. I personally think Mark McKinnon is giving the most charitable explanation — "break glass in case of emergency," meaning to prevent a second Trump presidency if Biden is too ill to serve. If that actually ends up happening next summer before the Democratic Party convention, then the scenario I described in Marianne Williamson and Nikki Haley, two women running for President on International Women's Day might come to pass.

[I]f Biden actually becomes vulnerable to a primary challenge, he would attract someone like Gavin Newsom to enter the contest. That would be a mistake if TFG is the Republican nominee again, but maybe not if DeSantis is. I think Newsom and DeSantis match up better than either Newsom and Trump or Biden and DeSantis. Still, I don't think Biden will fail be be renominated if he actually runs. Party discipline is not only much stronger in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, it's stronger than it was when i joined in 2004. As I wrote in 'SNL' shares scary news for Halloween 2022, "Re-nominating Joe Biden might be scary, but all the other potential candidates mentioned were even scarier, so back to Biden we go. I'm OK with that."

No Labels really doesn't need to do this, as the Democratic Party can take care of the problem itself, whether through new candidates entering the contest or the delegates nominating Kamala Harris instead. That would be a scenario right out of "Veep." Life imitating art!

CNN also examined this subject, which Third Way posted on its YouTube channel as CNN: Dems warn No Labels third-party ticket could split vote.

Third Way Senior Visiting Fellow Tim Ryan joins Michael Smerconish on CNN to explain why a No Labels third-party bid for the White House would re-elect Donald Trump.

That's an even more dire warning about what a No Labels candidate could do next year.

I stumbled across this subject by following up on Kyrsten Sinema becoming an independent. No Labels loves her and this effort helps her, too. No Labels will have ballot access in Arizona next year, including for U.S. Senate. Sinema now has a guaranteed spot waiting for her. Nice work, No Labels.

This concludes May 2023's blogging. Stay tuned for June, when I plan on writing about the debt ceiling tomorrow, after the House of Representatives votes on the measure. That should be interesting.

Surprise! Kyrsten Sinema has moved to the left as an independent

I reacted to Kyrsten Sinema becoming an independent by writing "From now on, Voteview will plot Double-Doctor Sinema's ideological position with a black dot, just as it does for Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont." What I expected was that Sinema would move to the right and possibly down (more anti-establishment) on Voteview's two ideological dimensions once she untethered herself from the Democratic Party. That would be consistent with her previous behavior and On The Issue's characterization of her as "a Libertarian-Leaning Progressive", which she shares with her former colleague Tulsi Gabbard. Instead, she's moved left and up, as the images both above and below show.

Since becoming an independent, Kyrsten Sinema has moved from being the second most conservative Democrat to being left of the median Democrat in the Senate. She's also become more "establishment" than every other Senate Democrat. Surprise!

None of this has made a dent in perceptions of her, which seem rooted in her voting and other behavior while a Democrat, which placed her as the second most conservative Democrat in the U.S. Senate next to Joe Manchin, as shown below.


Both her critics on the left and within the Democratic Party and her supporters in groups like No Labels still think of her as a centrist who supports business interests, as More Perfect Union portrays in The Third Party Bid That Could Sabotage Trump and Biden.

A group calling themselves "No Labels" has suddenly emerged as a huge financial backer of Kyrsten Sinema.

They're also floating the idea of running Joe Manchin for President.

We dug into them, and found a whole lot of billionaires with a history of opposing democracy.

Moving left appears inconsistent with both her critics' and supporters' opinions of her. However, becoming more "establishment" (up along Voteview's second dimension) is another way to become more conservative and No Labels may be more interested in her being more supportive of "establishment" positions than in her staying in the center along the left-right axis. Also, Sinema may be trying to position herself to the left as a defensive move against the Democratic challenger. It remains to be seen how that works out.

On a related note, I should examine No Labels' effort to gain ballot access in next year's elections. Stay tuned.