Saturday, January 18, 2025

'Conclave' beat 'Anora' for Best Screenplay, Motion Picture at the Golden Globes

I promised I would revisit Gold Derby's predictions in Golden Globes and Critics Choice screenplay nominees for National Screenwriters Day. Since then, the Critics Choice Awards were postponed until February 7 because of fires in and around Los Angeles, so only the Golden Globes, which took place before the fires broke out, have been awarded. I begin with Gold Derby's prediction for Best Screenplay, Motion Picture at the Golden Globes.
Eight of Gold Derby's editors, including Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen, picked Anora, while one each chose A Real Pain, The Brutalist, and Conclave. Gold Derby's experts generally agree, with 18 of the 32 judging Anora the best, followed by eight choosing Conclave, five picking A Real Pain, and one standing out for The Substance. Seventeen of the site's top 24 users agree with Anora, followed by four for Conclave and three voting for The Substance. The users apparently don't like A Real Pain.
Those were the predictions, now the reality, as Conclave Wins Best Screenplay – Motion Picture | 82nd Annual Golden Globes.

Conclave accepts the Best Screenplay – Motion Picture award at the 82nd Annual Golden Globes.
Congratulations to Peter Straughan on defying the odds and to the one editor, eight experts, and eight users for choosing Conclave to win.


Follow over the jump to see how Conclave's win has affected the odds at the Critics Choice Awards.

The odds for Best Original Screenplay looked like this on January 5th.
Gold Derby's top 24 users like A Real Pain better in this field with three of them choosing it. Anora is still their top pick with 21 voting for it. The site's editors agree as seven of ten have voted for Anora and the rest for A Real Pain. The same is true for the experts, nine of twelve choosing Anora and three A Real Pain. Anora looks to be on track to win two awards for its screenplay on consecutive Sundays.
Anora still leads, but one editor has switched to A Real Pain, so the race is now eight to four. More experts have chimed in, with eleven picking Anora and three remaining with A Real Pain, so they're moving in the opposite direction from the editors. Twenty-one of the top 24 users are sticking with Anora, but they are moving away from A Real Pain, with only one maintaining it as their top choice, while one each have switched to The Brutalist and The Substance.

Now to revisit Adapted Screenplay.
The three groups of forecasters at Gold Derby ranked Conclave second overall for Best Screenplay, Motion Picture, so it should be first away from Anora in this category and it is. Ten of the twelve experts, eight of ten editors, and 23 (!) of the top 24 users voted for it. One expert each dissented by voting for Dune: Part Two and Sing Sing. Two editors and one top user chose Sing Sing. They have one week to change their minds and I might report on updated predictions for the Critics Choice Awards then.
There has been no change among either editors or experts, while all of the top 24 users are now voting for Conclave. When it wins, will white smoke come out of the chimney? No, but only because the ballots are electronic, not paper.

Stay tuned for more Golden Globes coverage tomorrow as I plan on posting this year's edition of Celebrating diversity in acting winners at the Golden Globes for MLK Day weekend for the Sunday entertainment feature.

No comments:

Post a Comment