Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Corner station took a week to return to its trench


When I last reported on the local gas price war, the corner station was camped out in No Man's Land.
Tonight, the three stations a few blocks away are still at $3.65, while the corner station has only dropped to $3.85.  No one is at the $3.69 I predicted last week.  About the best I can do is point out that the average of three stations selling at $3.65 and one station selling at $3.85 is $3.70.  Yeah, I called the mean price to within a penny, but that's not what I really meant or expected last week.  I still have two days for all four outlets to equalize this week, but I'm beginning to wonder.  I'm having trouble remembering when the corner station last defended a price increase this stubbornly.
Friday evening, the corner station dropped its price to $3.79 when I was next door.  I went into the pizza place and it was still $3.89, then returned back to my car a few minutes later and the price had dropped a dime.  Monday evening, the corner station had inched down to $3.75, where it was Tuesday morning.  Tuesday evening, when I went to get more pizza, it had finally dropped to $3.65, matching the three stations down the block, none of which had budged for two weeks.  That's where all four stations remained today.

GasBuddy shows that the local situation of resisting increased gas prices is widespread.  The national average has barely budged above the $3.65 of the previous report, remaining steady at just below $3.66 for the past week.  This is the longest that the U.S. mean has not increased since the second week of February.  As for the Detroit average, the metro area topped out at $3.79 a week ago and has declined to just above $3.74 today.  The neighborhood stations are no longer underpriced and so should stay at $3.65 through the weekend.

By the way, prices are still at or below where they were at this time last year.  Last week, the comparison was with Flooding bumped up the gas price rollercoaster.
The prices are already starting to drop.  The corner station has matched the rest of its competitors and is selling gas at $3.69, a drop from the $3.75 late last week.
So the corner station wasn't there yet last week, but the other three were four cents a gallon cheaper.

This week the comparison would be with the first week described in Corner station retreats into trenches after charging No Man's Land.
[T]he corner station started another round of price raising and failed, as they posted prices of $3.89 two weeks ago.  The other stations didn't bite, and by the end of the week, everyone was selling for $3.65.
This is exactly where prices are now, so no year-over-year increase.  The next question becomes "will prices stay at or below where they were a year ago next week?"
On Monday, [the corner station was] selling regular for $3.79 while the three stations down the street had prices of $3.75.  That lasted until this afternoon, when the three stations dropped regular down to $3.70.  By this evening, the corner station matched their price.
Not only the local and national retail trends suggest that the answer will be yes, but the underlying wholesale prices do, as well.  Follow over the jump for the details.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Student sustainability video festival 21: Extreme weather


I submitted my grades last night two days ahead of schedule, so it's time to suspend the series I resumed with Student sustainability video festival 19: Singing Honey Bees and continued with Student sustainability video festival 20: Sodastream commercial.  Following is the video from one of the students' two favorite talks, which was about cryoseisms or icequakes.  This isn't an icequake, but an ice heave.  It's followed by a summary of a day's extreme weather from this time last year.

ABC News via YoutubesBestVideos: Creeping Wall Of Ice Destroys Homes In Canada Extreme Weather: A Giant Mass of Ice.


Here's the followup from ABC News explaining the event and showing the damage from another ice heave in Canada: 'Ice Tsunami' Video, Photos: Wall of Ice Rises Out of Lake, Destroys Homes.

A tsunami-like wave of ice called an ice heave destroyed a dozen two-story homes in Minnesota.
As I wrote at the end of May 2011, I know weather isn't climate, but check out these videos!

Monday, April 28, 2014

Student sustainability video festival 20: Sodastream commercial


It's time for the next installment in this series after Student sustainability video festival 19: Singing Honey Bees.  In Sodastream commercial aired during Super Bowl, I made a promise.
As for the commercial that was banned, that was from last year's game.  I still plan on sharing that one in April during the next session of the Student Sustainability Video Festival.
It turns out that wasn't the video shown to my class back then, but I'll embed it anyway: Game Day 2013 Commercial: The Unaired SodaStream Ad.


Now, this is the video actually shown back in 2012: Imagine a World Without Bottles.

Our Earth is precious. Are we doing enough to protect it? Plastic bottles are a major source of pollution.
178 million liters of oil are used each year to manufacture 144,000,000,000 plastic bottles!
Yes, both of these are corporate PR and the presentation the latter was part of was a thinly disguised sales pitch that made me uneasy when I first saw it, but the students loved it.  In fact, I'm consistently surprised how much my students like sales pitches.

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Game of Thrones--names, geology, and security theater


For my Sunday night entertainment entry, I'm going to be a good environmentalist and recycle material I posted at Journalfen.  First, More babies named Khaleesi than Betsy.

Vox.com: Before Game of Thrones, no one named babies "Khaleesi." In 2012, it beat the name "Betsy."

According to data from the Social Security Administration, were 21 newborns in 2012 named "Daenerys," which was never used enough in previous years to show up in official counts (for privacy reasons, the SSA only releases numbers for names used five or more times in a given year).

But wee baby Daeneryses were dramatically outnumbered by newborns named "Khaleesi" — the title Targaryen earned when she married Dothraki leader (or "Khal") Drogo. 146 "Khaleesi"s were born in 2012, making it more popular as a full name than "Betsy" or "Nadine"...


The article also has stats on the popularity of Arya, Draco, Hermione, Sirius, and Katniss.  Katnisses are now more common than Maudes among those born in 2012.

Bonus "Game of Thrones" geekery from Stanford University: The geology of Game of Thrones.

Follow over the jump for something darker and much more collapse-and-decline-related.

Student sustainability video festival 19: Singing Honey Bees


As I last wrote in Student sustainability video festival 13: Real vs. artificial Christmas trees, "It's the end of the semester, which means it's grading time.  It also means posts light on text and analysis until the grades are posted."  That means it's time to resume where I left off in Student sustainability video festival 18: Great Pacific Garbage Patch, again.  Tonight I restart the series with what probably would have been voted the favorite video shown this semester by the students if it hadn't been in one of the last presentations given after the final, YOU NEED US THE HONEY BEES - (Gilligan's Island).


As you can probably guess, it was a talk about colony collapse disorder and it was a big hit in large part because of this video.

I'll be back at 8 PM EDT with my usual Sunday evening entertainment-themed post, as if this one wasn't enough.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

Two weeks of space news leftovers


I'd already shared the best of last week's space news from Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Kepler-186f) in Examiner.com article on Kepler-186f, Twins on Earth and Space and Earth Day 2014, but I have more left over for tonight's entry.  I begin with a recap of last week's NASA highlights.

NASA: The Dragon Takes Flight on This Week @NASA

SpaceX-3 launches to the International Space Station, Kepler finds a Earth-sized planet and LADEE ends its mission on the lunar surface. These stories and more on this week's, This Week @NASA.
Follow over the jump for the week before's This Week @NASA, the latest on noctilucent clouds, and an experiment that finally went to the ISS last week after a delay.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Corner station camped out in No Man's Land


It's now Friday at Midnight, which means it's time to check my forecast in Another engagement in the gas price war goes as predicted, when I asked "How about the next prediction?"
The next question becomes what is GasBuddy indicating for the trend?  The national average has continued up slowly and is now between $3.61 and $3.62.  The Detroit average bounced up on Monday to $3.75 and is now between $3.76 and $3.77.  Even if the latter price ends up being the peak for the week, so long as the slow decline that would follow keeps the price above $3.75, the neighborhood stations will still be underpriced and I would expect the next jump would be to $3.69.  That could happen this weekend to take advantage of Easter weekend travel, but I would think it more likely early next week.  Stay tuned.
The national average is still creeping up and is now between $3.62 and $3.63.  Meanwhile, the Detroit average has dropped below $3.75.  The neighborhood stations are no longer underpriced, so I no longer think they'll raise prices before the Easter weekend.  The earliest move should be early next week.  Based on the national average continuing its steady rise, I still think $3.69 is in the cards.
I was right about no price rise before Easter.  All the neighborhood stations remained at $3.65 until Tuesday.  I took advantage of that and filled up Yuki Monday evening.  Good thing I did, as the corner station raised its price up to $3.89 Tuesday evening.  I wasn't surprised, as it had charged to the same location earlier this month.  Meanwhile the three stations down the street held firm at $3.65.  Normally, the three stations a few blocks away would have raised their prices slightly and waited for the corner station to match them.  That hasn't happened so far this week.

Tonight, the three stations a few blocks away are still at $3.65, while the corner station has only dropped to $3.85.  No one is at the $3.69 I predicted last week.  About the best I can do is point out that the average of three stations selling at $3.65 and one station selling at $3.85 is $3.70.  Yeah, I called the mean price to within a penny, but that's not what I really meant or expected last week.  I still have two days for all four outlets to equalize this week, but I'm beginning to wonder.  I'm having trouble remembering when the corner station last defended a price increase this stubbornly.

As for the underlying trends, the national average continues to creep up.  It's now at $3.65.  Look, local gas at the national average!  Meanwhile, the Detroit average is now at $3.79.  The three stations down the street are definitely underpriced and should be selling at $3.69.  I'd be surprised if they do that tomorrow, but it's possible.  I think it's more likely that they'll raise prices on Tuesday or Wednesday.

By the way, it isn't the price of crude that's driving this increase.  Despite Reuters' scary headline, Brent crude rises over $1 on Ukraine war of words, Brent crude has gone sideways, while WTI is actually slightly down since last week.  The report I quoted last week had Brent closing at $109.53 a barrel after earlier hitting a high of $110.19, while WTI settled at $104.30 a barrel after earlier hitting a high of $104.78 a barrel.  Yesterday, Brent crude settled at $110.33 while U.S. crude closed at $101.94.  As I wrote, despite today's jumps of $1.22 for Brent and 50 cents for WTI, sideways and down.

Instead, it's gasoline.  The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that "front-month May reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, was up 0.3% at $3.1023 a gallon."  Last week, RBOB for May delivery was $3.0547 a gallon.  That's a nickel higher, which is not insignificant.  Looks like the U.S., or at least parts of it, is suffering a gasoline shortage.  Reuters confirms this in Customs about-face could make Bahamas key source for U.S. gasoline, mentioning shipping gasoline from an "oversupplied U.S. Gulf Coast to the gasoline-thirsty East Coast."  Until that's resolved, expect gasoline prices to continue rising.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Examiner.com article on candidates meeting Earth Day filing deadline part 2

Sally Petersen, here seen campaigning for City Council in 2012, is one of four candidates running for Ann Arbor Mayor.
Credit: Petersen's campaign website.
County and municipal candidates in Washtenaw County filed by Earth Day
In addition to the candidates for federal and state offices who had to meet the Earth Day filing deadline for the August 5th primary.  Major party candidates for county and municipal offices up for election this year also needed to file by 4:00 P.M. Tuesday with the Washtenaw County Clerk as well.

Independent candidates can still appear on the November ballot, but they must file by July 17th.
...
No Republicans filed for Mayor or City Council in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti, only Democrats.  That means that, absent an independent challenger, the winner of the Democratic primary in August will run unopposed in November.
Yesterday, I promised that "I'll write up the county and municipal candidates tomorrow."  It's yesterday's tomorrow, so I've kept my promise.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Examiner.com article on candidates meeting Earth Day filing deadline part 1

Caption: Gary Peters along with campaign staff and volunteers deliver nominating petitions Monday the 21st to get him on the ballot for U.S. Senate.
Credit: Gary Peters Campaign Facebook page
Candidates for federal and state office in Washtenaw County meet filing deadline
Earth Day was not just a day to celebrate the environment here in Michigan.  It was also the deadline for candidates of the two major parties seeking partisan political office to file their petitions or pay their filing fees.  This meant that people running as either Democrats or Republicans for positions from Senator and Governor down to City Council and Township Supervisor had to get their application to the Secretary of State for statewide office or the County Clerk by 4:00 P.M. for all other offices to get their names on the ballot for the August 5th primary.

Four candidates for federal and state office waited until the final hours to do so, as the Michigan Secretary of State shows that Democrat Pam Byrnes and Republican Stephen Farkas, who are running for Congress in the 7th and 12th Districts respectively, and Republicans Ed Moore and Leonard Burke, who are running for State House in the 54th and 55th Districts respectively, all filed on the 22nd.

As the situation stands now, there will be contested primary elections for the Republican nominees for both Congressional districts, where Douglas Radcliffe North is challenging incumbent Tim Walberg in the 7th and Terry Bowman and Stephen Farkas are facing off in the 12th, and for the 54th State House District, where Ed Moore and John Nazars will see who gets to take on incumbent David Rutledge.  There will also be a contested primary for the Democratic nomination for the 12th Congressional District with Ray Mullins challenging Debbie Dingell, the wife of incumbent John Dingell.
List of candidates at the link in the headline.

I'll write up the county and municipal candidates tomorrow.  Right now, it's time to go to bed!

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Earth Day 2014


Happy Earth Day!  To celebrate the day, here are two items about what NASA and Purdue University are doing today.  First, NASA's Earth Day 2014 Promo.

Enjoy the beautiful scenery on Earth as NASA takes part in a worldwide celebration of Earth Day.  Join us this year with the agency's #GlobalSelfie event.
Next, Purdue University reports Purdue researcher plans Global Soundscapes Day to record sounds of the Earth.
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - A Purdue University researcher is collaborating with partners across the globe for a special Earth Day experience on Tuesday (April 22) designed to capture up to 1 million natural sound recordings and upload them for preservation.

Global Soundscapes Day, led by Purdue ecologist Bryan Pijanowski, will shine the spotlight on the importance of natural soundscapes and the potential for growing research and encouraging middle school and high school students about the career potentials in this field.

"Our aim is to get people from all walks of life and from across the world to record their soundscapes and to answer questions related to how they relate to them," said Pijanowski, a Purdue professor of forestry and natural resources.

"We hope to use these collected soundscapes from Earth Day 2014 to change the sound of public spaces, hospitals and other venues, replacing them with sounds that make us feel good, sounds that are peaceful and restful."
Once again, Happy Earth Day!

Monday, April 21, 2014

My thoughts on Michael Ruppert


I've been showing my students "The End of Suburbia," in which Ruppert played an important role, one almost as big as Kunstler, for the past five or six years.  That means I've listened to his recorded words and watched his filmed image at least thirty times (twice a semester, three semesters a year).  Even though I never met the man either, I have a sense of the man.  I can say that knowing that I won't see anything new from the man elicits a sense of loss from me.

As for the demons that haunted him, I watched some of the opening of "Apocalypse: Man" from Vice.  Ruppert was very clear about how little hope he had.  He sounded like one of the people who think that humans will go extinct by 2030.  I guess he didn't want to be around to see that happen.

Also, Vice described some of his other history, such as his confronting the CIA director over allegations of the agency's involvement in illegal drugs and Ruppert's later dabbling in 9/11 Trutherism.  When Ruppert's death was reported on Raw Story, that's the tack that the reporter took, calling Ruppert a conspiracy theorist.  That drew dozens, if not hundreds, of Ruppert's fans to defend him.

About that slant on the story, I have two things to say.  First, it vastly underplayed Ruppert's involvement in the peak oil community.  I don't know if this was a good thing or a bad thing.  On the one hand, it slighted an important aspect of the man and his message.  On the other hand, it didn't tar peak oil with the same brush as the conspiracy theories.

Second, it's a sign of how people on what passes for the American Left engaged in a form of "Evil, Be my Good."  When an unnamed Bush Administration official mocked the Administration's critics as "The reality-based community," Bush's opponents almost seemed as one to say, "yes, we are reality-based, and you're not."  I consider that to be one of the great rhetorical miscues of the 21st Century.  The upshot was for the bulk of the anti-Bush crowd to reject conspiracy theories and conspiracy theorists as not reality-based, and that played out in the quotes Raw Story used in their obituary, including one from David Corn.

“'Conspiracy theories may seem more nuisance than problem,' wrote columnist David Corn about Ruppert’s work in 2002. 'But they do compete with reality for attention. There is plenty to be outraged over without becoming obsessed with X Files-like nonsense.'”

Above originally posted as a comment to The End of Employment at The Archdruid Report.

I'll have reaction to Ruppert's death from other bloggers as well as to my comments from other readers of Greer's blog later.  Stay tuned.  Until then, here's a thought from Escape from Wisconsin's eulogy at The Hipcrime Vocab.

Twins on Earth and Space


I'm going to have something serious in the morning.  Tonight, I present two stories on twins from Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Kepler-186f).  First, University of Cincinnati brings the news about twins on Earth in Double the PharmD(NA) in 2014 Pharmacy School Class posted April 17, 2014.
To the best of recollections, there's never been a set of twins graduate from the James L. College of Pharmacy, so it's a pretty safe bet that 2014 is the first year the college will graduate two sets: identical twins Kayla and Michelle McWilliams and fraternal twins Ameera and Jameela Aladimi- all of whom will receive their PharmD degrees on April 27.

"We make independent decisions, but a lot of times we still wind up in the same place," Kayla McWilliams says of their choice to carry on a family tradition and attend pharmacy school at UC.
Next, Science at NASA talks about twins in space in ScienceCasts: Separated at Launch.

Next year, with the assistance of the world's only twin astronauts, NASA will conduct an unprecedented experiment in human biology. While one twin remains on the ground, the other will circle Earth onboard the International Space Station for a full year. Will the twins still be identical when they are re-united? The answer could help NASA make space travel safer for generations of astronauts to come.
Here's to these three sets of twins contributing to health, science, and space.

Sunday, April 20, 2014

'Years of Living Dangerously'


While I was featuring Neil DeGrasse Tyson on Late Night for Apophis Day to mark the showings of "Cosmos" last week, another media event even more appropriate for my Sunday night collapse-and-decline-related entertainment entries was taking place, the premiere of "Years of Living Dangerously."  Here's the second trailer for the series.

Don't miss the documentary series premiere of Years of Living Dangerously, Sunday, April 13th at 10PM ET/PT.
...
It's the biggest story of our time. Hollywood's brightest stars and today's most respected journalists explore the issues of climate change and bring you intimate accounts of triumph and tragedy. YEARS OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY takes you directly to the heart of the matter in this awe-inspiring and cinematic documentary series event from Executive Producers James Cameron, Jerry Weintraub and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The entire first episode is available for free on YouTube.  Watch it there.

I knew of the show because of the following press release from Texas Tech: Climate Scientist to Appear with Don Cheadle on Showtime written by John Davis on April 4, 2014.
Katharine Hayhoe will discuss findings in premier of "Years of Living Dangerously."

A Texas Tech university climate scientist will appear with Academy Award nominee Don Cheadle in a new nine-episode Showtime documentary series covering climate change and its effect on people around the globe.

Katharine Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University, will discuss her climate findings with Cheadle, who serves as a U.N. Ambassador for the United Nations Environment Programme, during the premier episode at 9 p.m. (CDT) April 13 on the Showtime cable network.

On April 7, viewers can catch the full first episode of Years of Living Dangerously free at http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/where-to-watch/.

“I hope this program will show us how climate change isn’t just some far-off issue that only matters to our children’s children, the polar bears in the Arctic or to islanders in the South Seas,” Hayhoe said. “Climate change is already affecting our lives today right here in the places where we live. It’s changing the birds, bugs and plants we see in our backyards. It’s affecting where we grow our food and how much water we have, altering the shape of our coastlines and increasing the risks of many types of extreme weather.”
I've been thinking about replacing "An Inconvenient Truth" with another film.  My first choice is "Chasing Ice."  I might use one of the episodes of this show instead.

On that note, Happy Earth Week and Happy Easter!

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Examiner.com article on Kepler-186f

NASA announced the discovery of five planets in the Kepler-186 system, 500 light years from Earth.  This diagram compares our Solar System with the Kepler-186 system.
Credit: NASA Ames/SETI Institute/JPL-Caltech
U-M astronomer part of team that discovered Kepler-186f
This past Thursday, NASA announced the discovery of Kepler-186f, which the agency's press release called "the first Earth-size planet orbiting a star in the 'habitable zone'--the range of distance from a star where liquid water might pool on the surface of an orbiting planet."  The press release emphasized the significance of the find by noting that "the discovery of Kepler-186f confirms that planets the size of Earth exist in the habitable zone of stars other than our sun."

University of Michigan astronomer and physicist Fred C. Adams was one of the team of scientists that analyzed the data from the Kepler space telescope.  In a press release, Adams said, "One of the most interesting questions in science is whether life can arise on other planets or, alternatively, if life on this planet is unique. The discovery of planets with Earth-like properties is one important link in the chain required to answer this question. And the discovery of the planet Kepler-186f is an important step toward finding a planet that is like our Earth."

In the team's paper, "An Earth-Sized Planet in the Habitable Zone of a Cool Star," which was published in the journal Science on Friday, April 18, 2014, reported that Kepler-186f most likely has a diameter eleven percent larger than Earth's.  This makes it smaller than previous rocky planets discovered by Kepler in the habitable zones of their stars, all of which have had diameters more than forty percent larger than Earth's and thus less suitable candidates for life as humans know it.

In the NASA press release, the paper's lead author Elisa V. Quintana elaborated on the significance of the finding, saying, "We know of just one planet where life exists -- Earth. When we search for life outside our solar system we focus on finding planets with characteristics that mimic that of Earth. Finding a habitable zone planet comparable to Earth in size is a major step forward."
Much more at the link, including a video from Geobeats that contains quotes from Quintana and another researcher I quoted in the article.  Here is the YouTube embed of it.

Newly found 'Earth cousin' may support life

In a remarkable new finding, astronomers reviewing Kepler's images say they have discovered the most earth-like planet yet.

Officially called Kepler-186f, the astronomers don't know too much about it including if it has a protective atmosphere, but it orbits in the habitable zone of its star and is a similar size to Earth, which could mean water may very well exist.

They also don't know the mass and composition, but despite all that, the discovery is a very important one as it proves that there could be a slew of other planets in space similar to Earth and potentially suitable for life that have yet to be spotted.
I've already included both of the above in tonight's Overnight News Digest at Daily Kos as this week's feature story.  I'm not above promoting my own work there.

On 'Weimar America' with The Archdruid and his readers


I know I promised to post my observations on Fascism and the Future, Part Two: The Totalitarian Center at the end of The Archdruid on Fascism, part 1, that's going to take a while to put together.  Instead, I'm going to jump ahead to a thread from Fascism and the Future, Part Three: Weimar America, in which I riffed on the title.
"Weimar America" is a phrase that is becoming more and more popular, with more than 4000 hits for links that use that exact phrase and millions of hits for links that use both in the same text.  The first page of Google returns results from such reputable sources at Salon, The New Republic, and The American Conservative--oh, and you, too.  All of them seem to be from the current decade.  It's a meme that is in definitely in the air.
Greer isn't the only collapse/Peak Oil blogger to invoke the Weimar Republic.  Kunstler has done so twice, first in We're Weimar and again in Weimar meets Waterloo.  He also freaked out over Sarah Palin as Memorial Day: Enter Hitler, Release 2.0 in his own warning of Fascist takeover, but that's a topic for another day.  Besides, he was wrong.  Back to Greer, whose response struck me as surprisingly hopeful.
Pinku-sensei, that's one of the few reassuring things I can think of about all this. If a phrase like that has become part of the standard rap of the chattering classes, we probably don't have to worry about it as much.
Dwig followed up to both of us by listing the sources for the use of the phrase.
Out of curiosity, I did a search for it. Here's a few of the sites, with ideological labels attached, based on what I saw at the sties. (Yes, I know, don't put much weight on them, but it does give a pretty good indication that it's not just one group's obsession.)

    - alternet.org: liberal
    - libertyunyielding.com/: conservative
    - truthdig.com: liberal
    - prorevnews.blogspot.com: progressive
    - newrepublic.com: conservative
    - attackthesystem.com: pan-anarchism
    - hnn.us: history news network
    - swordattheready.wordpress.com: christian right
    - theamericanconservative.com: what it says
The New Republic is more liberal or centrist than conservative, but otherwise it's a good analysis of the sources.

Greer appreciated the list, writing "Dwig, fascinating. Thanks for the leads."  I hope all my readers found them useful, too.

I'll return in the future with more on The Archdruid on Fascism and the future, including comments on what constitutes Left and Right, observations on his scenario of a fascist takeover, and an aside on the LaRouche movement.  Given the way I operate, I'll probably get to that last one first.  LaRouche's disciples are in the news this election season, including a return engagement of the one I encountered in A-10s on parade.  Stay tuned.

Friday, April 18, 2014

Another engagement in the gas price war goes as predicted


It's prediction checking time again.  In Another advance in the gas price war, I described the latest action in progress in the local gas price war.
Monday, the corner station charged into No Man's Land, shooting its price up to $3.89, which meant that the price for the next grade up was $4.04.  Egads, $4 gas again!  Meanwhile the stations down the street were still at $3.60.  Tuesday evening, they had all raised their prices for regular to $3.65, while the corner station had dropped what they were charging for regular to $3.79.  My prediction that the neighborhood price would go up to $3.64-$3.69 has come true.  Now all that's left is for the corner station to match the other three, something that should happen by Thursday.
That's exactly what happened.  Thursday night, I drove past all four stations.  The three down the street were still at $3.65 and the corner station had joined them.  Success!

How about the next prediction?
The next question becomes what is GasBuddy indicating for the trend?  The national average has continued up slowly and is now between $3.61 and $3.62.  The Detroit average bounced up on Monday to $3.75 and is now between $3.76 and $3.77.  Even if the latter price ends up being the peak for the week, so long as the slow decline that would follow keeps the price above $3.75, the neighborhood stations will still be underpriced and I would expect the next jump would be to $3.69.  That could happen this weekend to take advantage of Easter weekend travel, but I would think it more likely early next week.  Stay tuned.
The national average is still creeping up and is now between $3.62 and $3.63.  Meanwhile, the Detroit average has dropped below $3.75.  The neighborhood stations are no longer underpriced, so I no longer think they'll raise prices before the Easter weekend.  The earliest move should be early next week.  Based on the national average continuing its steady rise, I still think $3.69 is in the cards.  A price rise higher than that shouldn't be, as crude oil has been bouncing around while moving mostly sideways the past few days, as Reuters reports Brent oil falls as Ukraine, Russia seek to end violence.
Brent crude for June delivery, which has received support in recent days as violence in Ukraine escalated, settled down 7 cents at $109.53 a barrel, after earlier hitting a high of $110.19 ahead of the joint statement.
...
U.S. prices found support from strong U.S. employment data, which showed new applications for unemployment benefits close to a 6-1/2-year low, the latest sign the economy of the world's largest oil consumer is gaining momentum.

U.S. oil for delivery in May settled up 54 cents at $104.30 a barrel, after earlier hitting a high of $104.78 a barrel. The contract had touched a six-week high of $104.99 in the previous session, though a report showing a large build in stockpiles weighed on sentiment on Wednesday.
So crude oil is stalling out.  So far, RBOB gasoline isn't, as the Wall Street Journal reports.
Gasoline supplies fell slightly last week to 210.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November, the EIA said. Stocks are "lower than they ought to be for this time of year," ahead of the summer-driving season, Mr. Lebow said.

Front-month May reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 1.42 cents, or 0.5%, to $3.0547 a gallon, the highest price since Aug. 29, 2012. Prices are up 1.3% for the week.
Based on that wholesale price, gas won't stop at $3.69 after next week, no matter what crude oil does.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

What The Archdruid ignored in 'Mentats wanted'


In The Archdruid and I talk real estate, I mentioned that I commented about more than just real estate and would talk about it later.
Greer and I got into a side conversation in the comments to Mentats Wanted, Will Train--real estate.  Even though I had plenty of things to say about the main topic, that's what he responded to.
...
I'll get back to the rest of the conversation...later.
As I type this, I'm waiting for the comment about the death of Michael Ruppert I left at Greer's most recent entry, The End of Employment, to make it through moderation.  Waiting is reminding me of the points I made that weren't addressed two weeks ago, so I feel now is an appropriate time to post them.  Follow over the jump.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

A review of entries about 'An Inconvenient Truth'


I'm in between showings of "An Inconvenient Truth" this week, the worksheets for which I included in Showing "An Inconvenient Truth" to my students again a year ago, the feature entry in Student worksheets for the second and third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News.  That may be the most popular entry about the film on my blog, but it's not the only one.  In fact, the day before I posted I'm hosting an Earth Week event today which previewed the movie.

In August, I posted two entries about the film either the week I showed it or the week before.  The first was Hot (not): a cold blast from the past, which explored the causes of the thousand-year reversal of the end of the last glaciation.  That plays a major role in the movie, with Gore favoring the flooding of the North Atlantic with glacial meltwater, while the latest hypothesis positing a comet impact on the ice sheet.  The two are not mutually exclusive, as the impact could have released the meltwater, but they are competing explanations for the event.  The second was Hot: Three topics from 'An Inconvenient Truth' in the news.  The three topics addressed these three questions.
1. What evidence first convinced Al Gore about the connection between carbon dioxide and global warming?
...
4. Explain how the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons fit with predictions based on global warming.
...
7. What will happen to global sea levels if either the Greenland ice cap or the West Antarctic ice cap melts?
Eight years later, the film is still relevant.

In December, I posted Climate news while I'm showing 'An Inconvenient Truth'.  It was just a compendium of climate stories, but it contained the answer to "What evidence first convinced Al Gore about the connection between carbon dioxide and global warming?"  The answer was the carbon dioxide data collected by Roger Revelle.  At least one person searched for this answer in December.  Should anyone else search again, they can now find it.  That entry prompted My sister suggesting I show 'A Convenient Truth' to my students.  I liked that suggestion.
That's not a bad idea.  "End of Suburbia" is a downer and getting dated.  I might just replace it with something optimistic about a greener future for cities.  After all, I am a Crazy Eddie.
As you can see, these entries come in pairs.  While I'm waiting for a response from a reader or for something else to inspire me to post a follow up, I present the Oscar winner for Best Original Song from the movie, Melissa Etheridge - I Need To Wake Up.

Another advance in the gas price war


It's time to check the prediction I made in and repeated in Corner station retreats as predicted in gas price war.
How confident am I in the next prediction?
While the corner station is likely to lower its price to match its nearest competitors, their price is not likely to go down more than a penny over the next seven to ten days.  $3.59 is no longer a ceiling; it's a floor.  I wouldn't be surprised if prices went up to between $3.64 and $3.69 by the end of next week.
Very.

Gas Buddy shows the national average has continued its rise from $3.58 Wednesday to between $3.59 and $3.60 today.  Detroit's average, on the other hand, has gone down slightly from $3.73 Tuesday and Wednesday to between $3.72 and $3.71 today.  It's performing just as I thought it would earlier this week, when I wrote "Based on the usual seasonal pattern, which has held very well over the past two months, it should decline slightly before going up again."  I'd say that the past two days price pattern is doing precisely that.  As for the local stations, their price is still more than a dime below the metro area mean, and is therefore underpriced based on historical patterns.  The metro average will have to drop below $3.70 to make them priced correctly.  Until that happens, I expect the price to go up next week.
Monday, the corner station charged into No Man's Land, shooting its price up to $3.89, which meant that the price for the next grade up was $4.04.  Egads, $4 gas again!  Meanwhile the stations down the street were still at $3.60.  Tuesday evening, they had all raised their prices for regular to $3.65, while the corner station had dropped what they were charging for regular to $3.79.  My prediction that the neighborhood price would go up to $3.64-$3.69 has come true.  Now all that's left is for the corner station to match the other three, something that should happen by Thursday.

The next question becomes what is GasBuddy indicating for the trend?  The national average has continued up slowly and is now between $3.61 and $3.62.  The Detroit average bounced up on Monday to $3.75 and is now between $3.76 and $3.77.  Even if the latter price ends up being the peak for the week, so long as the slow decline that would follow keeps the price above $3.75, the neighborhood stations will still be underpriced and I would expect the next jump would be to $3.69.  That could happen this weekend to take advantage of Easter weekend travel, but I would think it more likely early next week.  Stay tuned.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Examiner.com article on Detroit's record total snowfall

Workers clear snow from a sidewalk along Woodward Avenue through several inches of snow as the area deals with record breaking freezing weather January 6, 2014 in Detroit, Michigan.
Joshua Lott--Getty Images
In Lunar eclipse not visible in Michigan tonight, I gave my reasons for wishing for a lot of snow.
The next question becomes "will there be enough snow to break the record for Detroit?"  The answer is maybe.  The latest prediction from NOAA states "Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible."  Only 1.9 inches is needed to set a new record for snowfall for the season, and that's right in the middle of the range.  Honestly, I'm rooting for that to happen.  First, it means that I won't feel like I should be wearing a T-shirt that reads "I survived this terrible winter and all I got was second place."  Second, it also means that I'll be inspired to write another article for Examiner.com.  The ones that I wrote about snowfall records got a lot of page views and Facebook likes.  That was good for both my pocketbook and my ego.  Finally, it will make going from spring back to winter, if only for a few days, worth it.
I got my wish and I was able to pound out another article for Examiner.com in 2 hours.

2013-2014 snowiest winter in Detroit history
This morning, the National Weather Service office in Detroit made it official.  This has been the snowiest winter in Detroit history.

As of 6:00 A.M., 3.1 inches of snow had fallen overnight, raising the total for the season to 94.8 inches.  Only 1.9 inches had been required to break the previous record of 93.6 inches set in 1880-1881.

This record joins three others for the Motor City set this season, the snowiest January, snowiest month, and longest snow cover, which is now 78 days.
...
After witnessing records like these, Detroiters can proudly say, "We survived the winter of 2013-2014."
Now to sweep off my car and drive to work.

Lunar eclipse not visible in Michigan tonight


The lunar eclipse happening tonight that was mentioned in Ocean on Enceladus, opposition of Mars, and other space and astronomy stories for the week of April Fools will not be visible here.  Instead, it's snowing.  The Weather Channel brings the bad news in Will You See the Lunar Eclipse?

Meteorologist Jonathan Erdman discusses who will be able to see the Blood Moon Lunar Eclipse.
So no "Blood Moon" tonight.  The next question becomes "will there be enough snow to break the record for Detroit?"  The answer is maybe.  The latest prediction from NOAA states "Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible."  Only 1.9 inches is needed to set a new record for snowfall for the season, and that's right in the middle of the range.  Honestly, I'm rooting for that to happen.  First, it means that I won't feel like I should be wearing a T-shirt that reads "I survived this terrible winter and all I got was second place."  Second, it also means that I'll be inspired to write another article for Examiner.com.  The ones that I wrote about snowfall records got a lot of page views and Facebook likes.  That was good for both my pocketbook and my ego.  Finally, it will make going from spring back to winter, if only for a few days, worth it.  It was so warm Sunday that I worked in the yard in my shorts.  Of course, I should be used to wild weather like this.  Welcome to Michigan!  If you don't like the weather, wait ten minutes.  It will change.  If you do like the weather, too bad; it will still change.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Identity theft warning for last-minute tax filers


Tax Day is tomorrow, which means it's time for me to pull the following articles out of my archives.  It may be too late for all of us who filed early, but the last-minute filers can still benefit from it.

The University of Georgia warned in February that Identity thieves may wait to use stolen data during tax season.
Athens, Ga. - Identity thieves may take advantage of tax season by filing false tax returns with their victims' stolen personal information, warns a data security proponent at the University of Georgia.

"During tax season, identity thieves are quick to file returns and get refunds from the government that will cause a legitimate taxpayer's refund to be denied as a duplicate return," said Laura Heilman, a security awareness training and education manager at UGA's Enterprise Information Technology Services office. "The legitimate taxpayer then takes on the burden of proving they are who they say they are and an identity thief was the fraudulent filer."

According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, fraudulent tax refunds claims associated with identity theft reached $12.1 billion in 2012. Tax-related identity theft and fraud is expected to reach an all-time high as people begin to file their tax returns for 2013.
The same week, the University of Alabama explained how to defend against this threat in UA Matters: Protecting Yourself Against Identity Theft.
Identity theft is the most prevalent white collar crime in the United States today. The University of Alabama’s Caroline Fulmer helps consumers understand how it occurs, the steps that can be taken to minimize the chances of being a victim and where to get help if they are a victim.

The most common ways identity theft occurs are when your wallet or purse is stolen; records are stolen from inside your home or from your mailbox; you willingly share information with a person who turns out to be a scam artist; using unsecure websites; or your information is stolen from a business.
The next month, Texas A&M chimed in with AgriLife Extension expert: Consumers can increase vigilance on identity theft.
FTC report shows U.S. consumers lost $1.6 billion-plus to fraud in 2013

COLLEGE STATION – Identity theft continues to top the list of consumer complaints, according to a recent report by the Federal Trade Commission.

The report noted that American consumers lost over $1.6 billion to fraud in 2013, based on more than  2 million complaints reported in the agency’s Consumer Sentinel Network Data Book 2013. Of these complaints, 14 percent were identity theft-related.

Complaints against debt collectors, banks and lenders, imposter scams, and telephone and mobile services rounded out the report’s top five consumer complaint categories.
Stay safe against this 21st Century crime.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Neil DeGrasse Tyson on Late Night for Apophis Day


I promised to celebrate Apophis Day in Space News for the second and third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News, a promise I repeated in The Archdruid and I talk real estate.  I'm following through by posting clips of Neil DeGrasse Tyson's appearance on Late Night with Seth Myers to promote Cosmos.  Since Cosmos is on tonight, that's an added bonus for my Sunday night entertainment-themed entry about one of my usual topics.

First, Myer's interview of Dr. Tyson.

Cosmos, comic books and alternate universes with Neil deGrasse Tyson.
Next, a sketch with Planet Pluto upset about being demoted.

Former planet Pluto confronts Neil deGrasse Tyson.
Happy Apophis Day to all, even Pluto!

The Archdruid and I talk real estate


Greer and I got into a side conversation in the comments to Mentats Wanted, Will Train--real estate.  Even though I had plenty of things to say about the main topic, that's what he responded to.  It began with the final remark of his that I included in my first response.
Greer: When all the people you know are rushing to sink every dollar they have in the speculative swindle du jour, for example, you’ll quickly recognize the obvious signs of a bubble in the offing, walk away, and keep your shirt while everyone else is losing theirs.

Me: I had that experience with real estate.  The news on the radio in June 2005 trumpeted record home sales and prices.  I took it as a sign of the market top I'd been looking for since 2001 and immediately drove to the nearest real estate office to my home in the Irish Hills of Michigan and listed my house for sale.  The house sold in April 2006 and closed in May 2006, just as the bottom was about to fall out.

That was not only good for me, but good for the deer.  That winter, the deer ate my shrubs up to the seven foot level. Good thing they were eight feet tall at the time. I vowed that if I were still in my house the next firearms deer season, I'd finally break down and buy a rifle and a deer hunting license.  I never got the chance.  Lucky deer.
Those of you who have been reading my blog for the past three years should recognize that I put together two stories about selling my house that I usually tell separately, but managed to weave together for the first time in Math and the market.  Even that version gives the deer half of the story short shrift.

Back to the conversation about real estate.
Greer: Pinku-sensei, I did the same thing with real estate, the other way around. My wife and I stayed completely out of the real estate market until 2009, when prices had crashed good and proper but credit could still be had, and snapped up our current house for an absurdly small sum. Having a clue really does help!

Me: "Having a clue really does help!"  Yes, it does.  Now to see about buying property as it struggles off the bottom.

Greer: Pinku-sensei, in your place -- unless relocating to the Rust Belt is part of your plan -- I'd build up a sum of ready money, and wait for the fracking bubble to pop. My guess is that there'll be panic selling of quite a range of assets at that point, and you'll do quite well.

Me: I relocated to the Rust Belt from California 25 years ago.  Right now I'm only 4 miles north of Detroit.  I find getting an up-close-and-personal view of a city undergoing collapse perversely invigorating.  As I say, welcome to Detroit, Ground Zero of the Post-Industrial Future.  The solutions to North America's problems will be developed here first and then exported to the rest of the continent.  That means the locals have a responsibility to promote the good solutions and squash the bad ones.  May they be able to tell the difference.
Yes, I threw in a bunch of my favorite lines about Detroit.  How could I resist?
Greer: Pinku-sensei, somehow I managed to forget where you were located. That being the case -- well, depending on where you want to invest, vast tracts of real estate can be yours any time you want!
I hope he's right.  In the meantime, since it's entertainment-themed Sunday, I can indulge in the first thing that came to mind when I read "vast tracts of real estate."  Take it away, Monty Python!


I'll get back to the rest of the conversation, as well as at least one other entry about Apophis Day later.  It's a beautiful day, and I need to get out and cultivate my garden.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Happy Yuri's Night 2014!



World Space Party - Detroit 2014 and i3 Detroit in Ferndale

I almost forgot tonight was Yuri's Night.  Shame on me if I had forgotten it.  After all, I posted about it last year and the year before.  To celebrate tonight, here's Chris Hadfield and the Canadian Space Agency: 2013 Spirit of Yuri's Night Acceptance Speech.

Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield and the Canadian Space Agency were named the recipients of the 2013 Spirit of Yuri's Night Award. This video is Chris' acceptance speech for the award!
For more, read Celebrate the Birth of Human Spaceflight, with Yuri's Night!

Driving update for April 2014: Yuki


I ended Driving update for December 2013: My car by postponing making good on a promise.
Also, I made a promise at the end of the last report.
Yes, I bought this car in October 2003.  I have a story about that, but I'll save it for the next report, along with why I named my car Yuki.  Stay tuned.
I'm going to take a rain check on this promise.  These look like the kind of stories I would write to post while I'm traveling, which I might do over the next two weeks.
Instead, I explained the name of my wife's car.
It's late and I'm tired, so I'm not up to it.  Besides, this report is about my wife's car, which I call Ruby (my wife doesn't give her cars names).  I gave her that name because of the car's color and because my wife and I are fans of "Once Upon a Time," which had a character named Ruby, who is really Red Riding Hood, for the first two seasons.
Well, my car will turn over 220,000 miles today, so it's time to tell her story.

My previous car, a Nissan I called Molly, died in October 2003 after she turned over 210,000 miles during a drive back from an anime convention in South Bend, Indiana, although I didn't realize it at the time.  I heard the engine knocking, which it did when the oil was low.  I put in two quarts of oil (!) and continued driving home.  Within a week, I had to put in more oil, and the engine began to sound just horrible.  I took it in for service, and found out that all the seals had blown and the engine was getting ready to throw a rod.  That was the end of my driving Molly.  I had to get a new car.

About this time, one of the local Kia dealerships was advertising its deal.  "Got a job?  Got $100?  Get a new Kia!"  I qualified, so I rented a car and drove over to the nearest Kia dealer and got Yuki.  It wasn't even the right dealership, but that didn't matter.  I picked out a car from the previous model year that had a rebate to entice people to get it off the lot.  I was able to roll that rebate into the down payment and was able to drive Yuki home without paying a cent.  Ah, the long-gone days of easy credit!

As for Molly, the dealership accepted her as a trade-in worth $50 and had her towed away.  At least I was able to get scrap value and free towing.   Best of all, Yuki's interior looked exactly like Molly's.  From the inside, it was as if I had just gotten a newer version of the same car with an automatic transmission.  As I wrote back in 2011 and again in 2012, it was a concession to comfort and age.
When I needed to buy a car, I got a Kia instead. It got 32 miles to the gallon, but it was an automatic. I was willing to sacrifice a few miles to the gallon so that my left foot and right hand could rest. Yeah, I'm a sucker for convenience, too.
At least it wasn't the Aztek my son wanted me to buy.  That would have been an environmental and economic disaster.

As for the name, my younger daughter suggested Yuki after Yuki Saiko, a character in the manga and anime "Silent Mobius."  The character's image is the one I used at the head of this entry.  It's the same one my younger daughter downloaded as a wallpaper on the computer I owned at the time.  Why Yuki?  In addition to "Silent Mobius" being a mutual favorite of ours, my daughter picked her out as the kind of woman she'd want for me; she was sweet, pretty and owned a coffee shop.*  Yes, I love my coffee.  Besides, the artist who drew the manga was named Kia Asamiya.  My daughter wanted to name a creation of one Kia after the creation of another Kia.  It stuck and that's how a Korean car got a Japanese name. 

Follow over the jump for the statistics, footnotes, and a music video.

Friday, April 11, 2014

Corner station retreats as predicted in gas price war


Here's what I predicted Wednesday in The front advances in the gas price war.
Yesterday, the corner station displayed more caution, raising its price to $3.79, while the corner station still held firm at $3.54.  Today, all stations moved.  The corner station dropped its price to $3.69, while the three stations down the block raised theirs to $3.60.  I expect the corner station to continue its swift but orderly retreat over the next two days and join the rest of the neighborhood outlets at $3.60.
The very next day, which is now yesterday, the corner station did exactly as I foretold, matching all the rest of the stations in the neighborhood at $3.60, which is still where it is today.

How confident am I in the next prediction?
While the corner station is likely to lower its price to match its nearest competitors, their price is not likely to go down more than a penny over the next seven to ten days.  $3.59 is no longer a ceiling; it's a floor.  I wouldn't be surprised if prices went up to between $3.64 and $3.69 by the end of next week.
Very.

Gas Buddy shows the national average has continued its rise from  $3.58 Wednesday to between $3.59 and $3.60 today.  Detroit's average, on the other hand, has gone down slightly from $3.73 Tuesday and Wednesday to between $3.72 and $3.71 today.  It's performing just as I thought it would earlier this week, when I wrote "Based on the usual seasonal pattern, which has held very well over the past two months, it should decline slightly before going up again."  I'd say that the past two days price pattern is doing precisely that.  As for the local stations, their price is still more than a dime below the metro area mean, and is therefore underpriced based on historical patterns.  The metro average will have to drop below $3.70 to make them priced correctly.  Until that happens, I expect the price to go up next week.  If it does, then the neighborhood stations will remain where they are, going no lower than $3.59.  The price won't drop below that floor, as Reuters reports U.S. crude nears 6-week high as consumer confidence supports.
U.S. crude oil rose to near a six-week high on Friday, steered by stronger gasoline demand and a positive consumer confidence report, but gains were capped by profit taking and a declining demand outlook.

The International Energy Agency lowered its global demand forecast for 2014 due to expectations that more Libyan crude will reach the market next week, pushing Brent prices lower.

U.S. crude moved in tandem with U.S. gasoline prices, which surged early in the session due to government data released mid-week that showed a substantial draw on stockpiles, signaling robust demand before the start of summer driving season.
...
U.S. oil rose by as much as $1.04 to a session high of $104.44, before giving back much of its gains to settle 34 cents higher at $103.74 a barrel. The May contract rose nearly 2-1/2 percent on average over last week.

U.S. gasoline RBOB rose by as much as 3.35 cents to a session high of $3.0381 per gallon, but gave up most gains to settle 0.65 cents higher at $3.0144 per gallon.

Brent crude settled 14 cents lower at $107.33 a barrel, but still ended the week 0.5 percent higher on average.
Oil and wholesale gasoline may not have kept all their gains, but they still went up.

Holidays from the second year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News


I finished Social media for the second and third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News with a sigh of relief followed by a look ahead.
That's all for the entries from the the third year of the blog for this year.  Maybe next year I'll describe how one or more broke out of the pack to get into the top ten list, but that's next year's problem.  On to finishing my retrospectives of the popular entries for the second year!
Tonight, I celebrate popular posts about holidays.  This is nothing new among my retrospectives.  After all, the most read entry posted during the first year of this blog ended up being Happy 4th of July from James Howard Kunstler's Tea Party!  That it didn't become that until a year later, as I detailed in Second Year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News: Kunstler's Tea Party, only made it more interesting.  Also, the second year of the blog included On Thanksgiving eve, I present "Food, Inc.", which I included after the jump in Student worksheets for the second and third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News.  Finally, the third year had a post for one of my made-up holidays, Space news for Apophis Day, which headlined Space News for the second and third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News.  Even though those were all holiday-related posts, they all fit better somewhere else.  That left two entries from the second year that just didn't find a with any of the above.

The more read of the two was Food Day News from Overnight News Digest on Daily Kos posted October 25, 2012, with 282 page views, good enough for the ninth most read entry of the second year of the blog.  The entry was one massive linkspam.  Much to my astonishment, it got view after view, most of which came from sources unknown.  I guess people just wanted to read news about food.  It's still popular, as it now has 349 page views.

The other was Happy Bastille Day!  It was posted, of course, on July 14, 2012, and received 204 page views.  It ended up in 19th place among the entries from the second year of the blog.  It was basically one tourist's video of Bastille Day 2011.  This entry gained a lot of views from web search, as I recall "Bastille Day" being one of the top search terms that week.  Unfortunately, it hasn't seen a lot of readers since then, as it currently has only 228 page views.  Too bad, it could use some love this coming Bastille Day.

 I love holidays. Here's to more popular entries about holidays!

I have one more entry left before I wrap up the second year of this blog--depressing political news.  Hey, what do you expect?  This may be a weird, hopeful doomer blog, but it's still a doomer blog.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Social media for the second and third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News


I concluded Stories I tell my students from the third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News with an optimistic program note.
I have one more retrospective to write about the third year of this blog and it's about social media.  After that, I have one or two retrospectives remaining to mop up the second year and then I'm done until next March.  I see a light at the end of this tunnel, and it's not an onrushing train!
This year's top entry about social media was We reveal ourselves on Facebook posted on March 22, 2013 with 255 page views, good enough for 20th place among all the entries posted during the third year of this blog.  I didn't bother to promote it at Kunstler's blog when it was new, instead concentrating on all the other entries for the week.  Instead, I waited until I posted in the comments to the first entry using the new format.
“we, in effect, already spy on ourselves and “snitch” on others on Facebook”

Notice that no one, so far, has entered in their Facebook URLs, not even Aimlow Joe, who put in something, but it wasn’t valid. I’m tempted to do so just to be the first here, but I’ll pass. I don’t want to have a first here that badly.

Speaking of which, we reveal more than we know about ourselves based on our Facebook activity.
That effort did get at least 100 page views to the entry.  As for the open commenting system that included Facebook and Twitter, it was replaced by one that required registration within a month.   So much for revealing our social media to each other!

Follow over the jump for the top social media entry of the second year of the blog.

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

The front advances in the gas price war


It's been twelve days since I posted The corner station retreats again, but only two cents worth.
The corner station stayed in its trench on Tuesday, so there was no charge into No Man's Land this week.  Instead, the three stations down the street dropped their prices slightly to $3.54, where they've remained since.  The corner station dropped a penny Wednesday to $3.55, then matched the rest of the outlets in the neighborhood Thursday at $3.54.  I predicted local prices would end the week between $3.49 and $3.59, and all four of them ended up exactly in the middle of the range.  Perfect.

As for what's next, Gas Buddy shows that metro Detroit prices hit a low for March of $3.59 last Friday, then shot up over the weekend to $3.65 before resuming their steep glide down to Thursday's $3.61.  I wouldn't be surprised if they continued to drop.  I would expect $3.52, but the low end of the range at $3.49 is still possible if Detroit area prices continue to drop.  However, there is upward price pressure from the national average, which ceased its brief decline on the 21st at $3.51 and has resumed its slow and steady rise to $3.52.  If that trend continues, then it will set a floor on local prices and possibly push them up to the top of the range I set last week, which is $3.59.  Unless something drastic happens in the next seven days, I don't expect prices to go any higher.
Note that I used a lot of words to basically say what I said the week before, that prices would stay between $3.49 and $3.59 for the next week.  Other than a charge into No Man's Land by the corner station, that's exactly what happened.  Last week, the corner station jacked its price for regular up to $3.85, which meant that mid-grade was selling for $4.00.  Oh, no, four dollar gasoline!  That only lasted a day, as the three stations down the block held firm at $3.54.  The next day, the corner station rejoined them.  Neighborhood gas prices were still below where they were this week last year, when they fluctuated between $3.59 and $3.69.  Yesterday, the corner station displayed more caution, raising its price to $3.79, while the corner station still held firm at $3.54.  Today, all stations moved.  The corner station dropped its price to $3.69, while the three stations down the block raised theirs to $3.60.  I expect the corner station to continue its swift but orderly retreat over the next two days and join the rest of the neighborhood outlets at $3.60.

As for the larger picture, Gas Buddy shows that the corner station was just reflecting the rise in national and local prices.  The national average jumped from a short-lived plateau of $3.55 a couple of days ago to $3.58 today.  Detroit's average jumped higher, from $3.64 three days ago to $3.73 yesterday.  Today, the metro area's prices held steady.  Based on the usual seasonal pattern, which has held very well over the past two months, it should decline slightly before going up again--and up it will go, as both the overall seasonal increase in gas prices will continue until July and the price of oil is going up, too.  Reuters reported today U.S. crude oil up on spike in gas demand, technical trade.
U.S. crude rose more than $1 on Wednesday, driven by a technical rally and unexpectedly high gasoline demand, while tensions between Russia and the West underpinned Brent crude prices.

U.S. crude oil stocks rose more than expected last week, but the build was overshadowed by a sharp spike in gasoline demand, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

The data boosted U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices above key technical levels, and pushed the closely watched and traded price spread with Brent, the European benchmark, to the narrowest point in nearly 7 months.
...
In the U.S. crude market, "gasoline inventories showed a massive drawdown, which drove WTI to rally past technical levels at $102.75," pushing traders to buy back positions they may have sold short, Baruch added.

U.S. RBOB gasoline settled nearly 3 cents higher at $3.0084 per gallon.

U.S. oil rose as much as $1.21 to a session high of $103.77 a barrel. The contract settled $1.04 higher at $103.60 per barrel.

Brent crude settled 31 cents higher at $107.98 a barrel.
While the corner station is likely to lower its price to match its nearest competitors, their price is not likely to go down more than a penny over the next seven to ten days.  $3.59 is no longer a ceiling; it's a floor.  I wouldn't be surprised if prices went up to between $3.64 and $3.69 by the end of next week.

As for where prices stand relative to last year on this date, for the first time all year, if not the first time in at least five months, nominal prices are now higher than last April 9th, when the local stations were all selling regular for $3.55.  Let's see, 0.05/3.55=1.4%.  As the core CPI has gone up 1.6% over the same time, that means that the real price of gasoline hasn't gone up one bit since last year.  That's actually reassuring.

Stories I tell my students from the third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News


My teaching has informed my blogging throughout the past three years and vice versa, but according to the top twenty entries of the past year compared to the year before, the interaction between the two seems to be having more of an influence.  First, Student worksheets for the second and third year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News listed assignments I have written for films I show my classes.  Now, a series of entries from the past year contain stories I tell to my students as well as items I have later incorporated into my lectures.

First among these is the eleventh most read entry of the third year of the blog, Science confirms my opinion of life in the country posted on August 3, 2013, with 338 page views.  This is another entry that gained its readers through my promoting it at Kunstler's blog.
I have a reply of sorts to last week’s passage about the “the millions of unemployed Ford F-110 owners drinking themselves into an incipient political fury,” who are presumably living in the country. I lived in rural and exurban ares for eleven years and I have more harrowing tales of criminality and depravity from life in the country than all the years I lived in the city (this includes the inner suburbs of Detroit as well as Los Angeles). I had enough of the country and moved back into the city three years ago. I feel much safer.

Last week, science confirmed my impressions by showing that people are less likely to die of violence of all kinds in urban than in rural areas. I have a video summarizing that research as well as my first hand tales of life in the country at Crazy Eddie’s Motie News.
As I wrote in the original entry, which was itself a quote from my LiveJournal:
When I tell my students from Detroit about all that, they're appalled. All of it as as bad as anything that happens there, and some of it is worse.
Four years after first writing that, my students are still amazed, and I still feel safer four miles away from Detroit than I did in rural Lenawee County and exurban Washtenaw County.  As for the point of the story, it's not that the city is better than you think while the country is worse, although that comes across to my students, it's that even the worst neighbors can be useful at times--and I had some terrible neighbors out in the country.

Follow over the jump for more top entries of stories I tell my students.

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Ocean on Enceladus, opposition of Mars, and other space and astronomy stories for the week of April Fools


It's time to recycle the space news from Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Ocean inside Enceladus) on Daily Kos, beginning with the lead story.

Space.com: Will Ocean Discovery On Enceladus Spur Life-Hunting Missions to Icy Moons of Saturn, Jupiter?
By Mike Wall, Senior Writer
April 04, 2014 07:33am ET
Astronomers are hoping that the existence of a subsurface ocean on Saturn's icy moon Enceladus will build momentum for life-hunting missions to the outer solar system.

Researchers announced their discovery of the deep watery ocean on Enceladus on Thursday (April 3) in the journal Science, confirming suspicions held by many scientists since 2005, when NASA's Cassini spacecraft spied geysers of ice and water vapor erupting from Enceladus' south pole.

The discovery vaults Enceladus into the top tier of life-hosting candidates along with Europa, an ice-sheathed moon of Jupiter that also hosts a subterranean ocean. Both frigid satellites bear much closer investigation, researchers say.
This week in science: that's no moon! by DarkSyde also used the announcement of the discovery of a subsurface ocean in Enceladus as its lead story, as did the NASA video Underground water on Saturn moon on This Week @NASA.

Thanks to NASA's Cassini spacecraft and the Deep Space Network, we have evidence that a large underground ocean of water exists on Saturn's moon Enceladus -- a theory formulated in 2005. Radio frequency and gravity measurements of Cassini flying by the moon indicate a large ocean about 6 miles deep, below an ice shell about 19 to 25 miles thick. This finding validates the inclusion of Enceladus to the list of possible places in our solar system to contain microbial life. Also, LADEE update, Women in Aerospace, Lightfoot visits Langley, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board meetings, International students observing climate and New partner at Kennedy!
Before I head over the jump to the rest of the past week's space news, Science at NASA presents the other featured story in ScienceCast: The Opposition of Mars

Earth and Mars are converging for a close encounter in April, an event astronomers call "the opposition of Mars."
This happens tonight, which is why I'm posting this today instead of waiting for later in the week.

Follow over the jump for the rest of the week's space and astronomy news.

Monday, April 7, 2014

'Game of Thrones' attack ads from Mother Jones


Almost simultaneously with my posting the link to Game of Thrones D&D character alignment charts, a friend of mine posted the link to "Game of Thrones" Attack Ads from Mother Jones.  I promised her that I'd convert it into my next "Game of Thrones" entry.  I'm keeping that promise.

First, Daenerys Targaryen: Wrong For Dragons, Wrong For The Realm.

This ad paid for by the Committee to Protect Dragons.
Next, Joffrey Baratheon: Where Is The Birth Certificate?

What is King Joffrey hiding?
Finally, Robb Stark: The Biggest Celebrity in The North.

This ad paid for by Crossbows GPS.
With this entry, I've gone full circle back to my first "Game of Thrones" entry, Game of Thrones: 2012 Campaign Edition.  That's OK; I like closing circles.

Chemical and fire hazards in furniture


Original at Mommy Greenest.

One of the topics that I give short shrift to in my Environmental Science class is indoor air pollution.  Pity, since that is a major health hazard.  This past week, I included two press releases on how our furniture poses an indoor air pollution risk in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Ocean inside Enceladus) on Daily Kos.  First, the bad news from the University of Texas: Crib Mattresses Emit High Rates of Potentially Harmful Chemicals, Cockrell School Engineers Find.
AUSTIN, Texas — In a first-of-its-kind study, a team of environmental engineers from the Cockrell School of Engineering at The University of Texas at Austin found that infants are exposed to high levels of chemical emissions from crib mattresses while they sleep.

Analyzing the foam padding in crib mattresses, the team found that the mattresses release significant amounts of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), potentially harmful chemicals also found in household items such as cleaners and scented sprays.

The researchers studied samples of polyurethane foam and polyester foam padding from 20 new and old crib mattresses. Graduate student Brandon Boor, in the Cockrell School’s Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, conducted the study under the supervision of assistant professor Ying Xu and associate professor Atila Novoselac. Boor also worked with senior researcher Helena Järnström from the VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. They reported their findings in the February issue of Environmental Science & Technology.
Now, the good news from Rebecca Basu of American University: Chemistry Professors Improve Furniture Smoldering Test.
American University chemistry researchers and scientists at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) discovered a way to improve a test that gauges how well upholstered furniture can resist smoldering combustion to delay the possible onset of fire. The research results are available online in the scientific journal, Polymer Degradation and Stability.

In the United States, fires in which upholstered furniture is the first item ignited account for about 6,700 home fires annually and result in 480 deaths, according to the National Fire Protection Association. These fires can be started from an open-flame source, such as a candle, or from a smoldering source, such as a lit cigarette or incense.

In the smoldering test, two foam pieces about two-inches thick are covered with fabric and placed in a wooden frame to replicate a small-scale version of seat and back cushions. It mimics a scenario where furniture foam sits on a non-air-permeable substrate (e.g. the wooden frame). A cigarette (certified to burn consistently) is placed in the frame’s crevice. To pass the test, the lit cigarette should not cause sustained smoldering of the fabric or the underlying foam.
I don't have enough time this semester to include the information in my lectures except in passing because of the snow days, but I'll see what I can do this summer, when I'm not likely to lose four days from the semester because of weather.