A blog about societal, cultural, and civilizational collapse, and how to stave it off or survive it. Named after the legendary character "Crazy Eddie" in Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's "The Mote in God's Eye." Expect news and views about culture, politics, economics, technology, and science fiction.
RuPaul's Drag Race leads nominations with nine (eleven for the franchise), followed by six for The Traitors, five each for Dancing with the Stars and Survivor, and four for Top Chef. The prognosticators at Gold Derby orders the top two like they did last year, when I wrote 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win again. Every editor, 95.2% of experts, and 93.5% of users think The Traitors will threepeat. The fans and the professionals diverge on the next most likely, with 4.3% of users rooting for RuPaul's Drag Race to upset, while the remaining 4.8% of experts and 1.8% of users selecting Survivor. Dude, I used to be such a big Survivor fan that I was a moderator of a reality TV forum; I get it, but it's not happening this year. Top Chef trails with the last 0.4% of users, while no one is picking Dancing with the Stars.
By the time of the live televised awards, every expert and editor along with 95.9% of users had consolidated around The Traitors, Survivor sat in second with 1.9% of users, RuPaul's Drag Race dropped to third with 1.6%, 0.6% of users moved to Dancing with the Stars, and Top Chef lost all of its support. All the professionals and the overwhelming majority of users got it right. Watch Reality Competition Program: 78th Emmys.
Alan Cumming and the team behind The Traitors accept the Emmy for Outstanding Reality Competition Program at the 78th Emmys.
Yes, it is amazing how a show about treachery and betrayal can bring people together, but not surprising if one is a reality show fan like I was. Survivor did the same thing a quarter century ago. Also, thanks to Cumming for reminding the audience to register to vote. I've been slacking on that.
While Queer Eyewon last year, the Gold Derby odds doubt it will repeat. Instead, 71.4% of experts, 66.7% of editors, and 75.4% of users expect Antiques Roadshow will win. The remaining experts are split with 14.3% each forecasting Queer Eye and Love Is Blind. The users break that tie with 14.8% backing Queer Eye and 6.6% loving Love Is Blind. 33.3% of editors and 3.3% of users selected Shark Tank. No one thinks Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives will win. Always a nominee, never a winner.
If anything, opinion dispersed instead of consolidating by the time of the Saturday ceremony, as 64.7% of experts, 50.0% of editors, and 73.5% of users stuck with Antiques Roadshow, while 17.6% of experts, 37.5% of editors, and 16.2% of users chose Queer Eye to repeat, 11.8% of experts and 5.1% of users loved Love Is Blind, 5.9% of experts, 12.5% of editors, and 4.0% of users selected Shark Tank to return to the podium after a year, and 1.2% users defected to Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives. Those who chose Antiques Roadshow were rewarded. Watch Structured Reality Program: 78th Emmy Awards.
Marsha Bemko, Sam Farrell, Sarah K. Elliott and Jill Giles accepts the Emmy for Structured Reality Program at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Congratulations and as a fan of public broadcasting, thank you and everyone at PBS for what you do.
That's a wrap for today. I have two more posts planned in this series, one for Outstanding Commercial, which will be Friday or Saturday, and a final one for Outstanding Competition Program, which I plan on posting as the Sunday entertainment feature on National Coming Out Day. I will follow that with Indigenous Peoples' Day. Looks like I have my blogging cut out for me. Stay tuned for all of that and more!
Previous posts about the 2026 Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards
Stephen Colbert talks about The Late Show winning seven Emmys, what he’s doing with his suits from the show, Jimmy spilling wine on him at a wedding, wearing a tan suit to an event for President Obama, writing a new Lord of The Rings movie with his son, his son John calls to re-enact him getting pulled over in New Zealand, Stephen shaves off his beard, and Stephen has a very special gift for Jimmy.
I'm glad Stephen is enjoying his forced retirement, including writing a new Lord of the Rings movie.* The rest of us miss him.
Love on the Spectrum leads with five nominations, followed by Welcome to Wrexham with four, America's Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders and RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked tied at two, and Summer House with just this one. That's close to how the Gold Derby odds rank their chances. Every expert, 83.3% of editors, and 87.6% of users picked Love on the Spectrum to repeat. The editors and users split on which shows could upset the leader. America's Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders is the choice of the remaining 16.7% of editors but no users, while 7.5% regard RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked as the runner-up with Welcome to Wrexham at 4.3% and new nominee Summer House as the selection of the final 0.5%.
One month later, Gold Derby's prognosticators consolidated around Love on the Spectrum with every editor, 94.1% of experts, and 92.4% of users predicting it would win, while the remaining 5.9% of experts joined 6.0% of users to rally around RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked. Watch Love on the Spectrum win Unstructured Reality Program: 78th Emmy Awards.
Cian O’Clery, Karina Holden and Kelly Martin accepts the Emmy for Unstructured Reality Program at the 78th Emmy Awards.
I applaud the goals of the producers for the program. Congratulations!
Love on the Spectrum is the defending winner, so it's the nominal favorite. That written, it's facing stiff competition from, no joke intended, the competition programs. In fact, that's a pattern this season, as the structured reality program nominees have only one nomination each.
Marcus Kjellberg, Leanne Cole, Kim Lloyd and John Rosser accepts the Emmy for Picture Editing for an Unstructured Reality Program at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Looks like this was a pleasant surprise for them as well as me. Congratuations!
Follow over the jump for a description of National Boyfriend Day.
Mr. Scorsese and Sean Combs: The Reckoning co-lead with three nominations each, followed by The American Revolution and The Yogurt Shop Murders tied at two and Rafa with one. That's not exactly the order that the prognosticators at Gold Derby handicap this category. The professionals mostly picked Mr. Scorsese to win with 62.5% of experts and 57.1% of editors along with 37.6% of users, while 57.9% of users support The American Revolution with the remaining professionals, 37.5% of experts and 42.9% of editors, agreeing. The rest of the users rank Sean Combs: The Reckoning third with 2.9%, Rafa fourth with 1.3%, and The Yogurt Shop Murders fifth with 0.3%.
By the time of the ceremony, the 64.8% of users fighting for The American Revolution persuaded enough of the professionals that 58.8% of the experts and 50.0% of the editors joined them, leaving 35.3% of the experts, 50.0% of the editors, and 28.9% of the users sticking with Mr. Scorsese. The professionals should have held their ground, as Mr. Scorsese won. Watch Documentary or Nonfiction Series: 78th Emmy Awards.
The team from Mr. Scorsese accepts the Emmy for Documentary or Nonfiction Series at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Between the two, I think The Tale of Silyan is the favorite. First, it has a second Emmy nomination for Outstanding Cinematography for a Nonfiction Program, which I'll examine over the jump, while The Librarians has only one. Second, it earned a nomination for Best Documentary at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards in addition to Best Cinematograpy. The Librarians also earned a nomination at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards for Best Political Documentary, but not Best Documentary. Third, The Tale of Silyan earned nominations at the Film Independent Spirit Awards and PGA Awards and wins at the Cinema Eye Honors Awards and Golden Trailer Awards. Yes, the trailer I embedded is a winner in its own right for Best Documentary Subject. Meanwhile, The Librarians earned nominations at the Satellite Awards and Cinema Eye Honors Awards. When the two films earned nominations at the same awards shows, The Tale of Silyan won awards and more and better nominations. Gold Derby hasn't created a predictions page for the Creative Arts Emmy Awards yet, but I don't have to wait until they do; I can tell which nominee is more likely to win, especially since this is a juried award. The experts will prefer the craft and storytelling of The Tale of Silyan over the subject matter of The Librarians.
The experts, editors, and users at Gold Derby all disagree with me; 87.5% of experts, 71.4% of editors, and 91.4% of users are currently voting for The Librarians to win. They must think the Television Academy considers the craft level is even enough that the anti-censorship message of The Librarians will be enough to beat The Tale of Silyan. I'm not convinced yet. It depends on the composition of the jury.
By the Saturday night ceremony, professional opinion consolidated around The Librarians as 94.1% of experts, 87.5% of editors, and 95.1% of users chose it. They were right and I was wrong, but that's O.K. Watch Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking: 78th Emmy Awards.
The team from The Librarians accepts the Emmy for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man! and Ocean with David Attenborough co-lead with six nominations each, followed by John Candy: I Like Me with five nominations and Marty, Life Is Short tied with My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay at three. Normally, I'd consider Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man! and Ocean with David Attenborough to be co-favorites, but the experts, editors, and users at Gold Derby disagree. They think John Candy: I Like Me and My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay to be the favorites, with 50.0% of experts, 28.6% of editors, and 61.0% of users picking the former, while 50.0% of experts, 57.1% of editors, and 26.3% of users choosing the latter. Normally, I'd favor the editors over the experts except one of the experts picking John Candy: I Like Me is Joyce Eng, whose opinion I trust. The remaining editor(s), 14.3%, are currently voting for Ocean with David Attenborough along with 3.5% of users. The rest of the users are split between Marty, Life Is Short with 6.2% and Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man! with 3.0%. I've often written that, all things being equal, the Emmy electorate will vote for a good story about themselves. The corollary is that they will vote for a nominee about a dead celebrity over a living one. The prognosticators at Gold Derby seem to agree. Again, electorates matter.
By the time of the Saturday ceremony, most of the professionals lined up behind My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay with 58.8% of the experts and 50.0% of editors, along with 34.6% of users. The majority of users, 55.9%, joined by 41.2% of experts and 37.5% of editors, stuck with John Candy: I Like Me. The remaining 12.5% of editors held their position with Ocean with David Attenborough. The professionals called it. Watch Documentary Or Nonfiction Special: 78th Emmy Awards.
The team from My Mom Jayne: A Film By Mariska Hargitay accepts the Emmy for Documentary Or Nonfiction Special at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Congratulations!
Outstanding Narrator
Sir David Attenborough – A Gorilla Story: Told by David Attenborough (Netflix)
Sir David Attenborough – Ocean with David Attenborough (Nat Geo)
Jodie Foster – Breakdown: 1975 (Netflix)
Werner Herzog – Ghost Elephants (Nat Geo)
Octavia Spencer – Lost Women of Alaska: "The Missing" (Investigation Discovery)
The experts, editors, and users disagree about the odds in this category, too, with 87.5% of experts and 83.0% of users but only 28.6% of editors electing for Sir David in Ocean with David Attenborough, 42.9% of editors along with 12.5% of experts and 9.4% of users choosing Octavia Spencer, and the remaining 28.6% of editors along with 2.9% of users on board with Warner Herzog. The remaining users split between Jodie Foster at 2.6% and Sir David's other nomination at 2.1%. Let's see who switches first, the experts or the editors.
The editors lost their nerve by the time of the ceremony, as 66.7% of them joined 88.9% of the experts and 82.3% of users in selecting Sir David, while only 11.1% of both experts and editors along with 11.3% stuck with Octavia Spencer. More editors, 22.2%, wanted Werner Herzog to win! The editors should have held fast, as Spencer won. Watch Narrator: 78th Emmy Awards.
Octavia Spencer accepts the Emmy for Narrator at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Congratulations to Spencer, who now has an Emmy to go along with her Oscar.
I also listed the other nominations for Ocean with David Attenborough.
Every expert and editor along with 94.1% of users predicts The Pitt will repeat as Outstanding Drama Series. Pluribus is the pick of 5.2% of users, while the rest of the nominees have 0.4% or fewer users behind each.
The team from The Pitt talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series.
I believe health care workers would like this show. My ex-wife was a nurse — she's retired now — and the stories The Pitt tells match the most dramatic she'd tell me when she got home from shift.
Every editor, 84.6% of experts, and 84.4% of users agree with me that this is Rhea Seehorn's award to lose and has been since December. Keri Russell has captivated the remaining 15.4% of experts and 13.0% of users, followed by Zendaya with 2.1% of users. Carrie Coon has 0.3% user support while Chase Infiniti brings up the rear with 0.1%.
Rhea Seehorn and Vince Gilligan of Pluribus talk to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards. Rhea Seehorn wins the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series, and Vince Gilligan wins for Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series.
That was fun and congratulations. I'm looking forward to Season 2, whenever it returns.
Every expert and editor plus 95.3% of users are acclaiming Noah Wyle to repeat. Mark Ruffalo is a distant second with 2.5% of users, followed by Gary Oldman with 1.2%, Sterling K. Brown with 0.9%, and Rufus Sewell with 0.1%.
Noah Wyle accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for The Pitt at the 78th Emmys.
Wyle's winnerview was also The Pitt's, so I'm moving on to the next category, which was a surprise, including to the winner.
Four actresses from The Pitt earning nominations in this category could result in massive vote splitting that could allow a nominee from another series to slip on through. The other outcome is that the voters look at the nominees side-by-side and decide on the best one. That's what Gold Derby thinks will happen, as a fairly consistent 80.8% of both experts and users along with 88.9% of editors expect Katherine LaNasa will return to the stage, followed by 11.5% of experts and 9.4% of users who suspect Sepideh Moafi will upset, then 11.1% of editors and 5.9% of users captivated by Karolina Wydra, then the remaining 7.7% of experts and 1.8% of users who anticipate Allison Janney will be the best TV president. Taylor Dearden has the support of 1.1% of users, followed by Julianne Nicholson with 0.7%, then Fiona Dourif with 0.2%.
It looks like the first possible outcome, "massive vote splitting that could allow a nominee from another series to slip on through," is what happened. Watch Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: 78th Emmys.
Allison Janney accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series for The Diplomat at the 78th Emmys.
Janney had more to say in .
Allison Janney from The Diplomat talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Supporting Actress in a Drama Series.
Congratulations, not only on this Emmy, but all eight over her career so far!
Massive vote splitting was probably a factor in the next category, which was less of a surprise.
Every editor, 57.7% of experts, and 62.7% of users have picked Patrick Ball to win. On the other hand, 34.6% of experts and 27.4% of users think Tom Pelphrey will take home the Emmy, giving Task the best chance for a drama series other than The Pitt or Pluribus to win an Emmy tomorrow. The remaining 7.7% of experts along with 5.6% of users selected Shawn Hatosy to upset. No, he's not better than Ball, although I think he and the night shift deserve their own spinoff series. They look like fun. The rest of the user vote splits among Billy Crudup at 2.1%, Carlos-Manuel Vesga at 1.0%, Jack Lowden at 0.7%, and Gerran Howell at 0.6%.
Tom Pelphrey accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series for Task at the 78th Emmys.
As I wrote on Twitter/X at the time, "This makes up for him not even being nominated for this category for 'Ozark' (but then nominated for the role the next season as a Guest Actor)." Congratulations!
Tom Pelphrey from Task talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
I don't know who loves each other more, Pelphrey and Kaley Cuoco or Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell. At least Pelphrey thanked Cuoco in his speech.
Now for the biggest surprise of the night, at least as far as Gold Derby is concerned.
Professional opinion is split on the top two in this category with the users breaking a virtual tie in favor of Vince Gilligan and Pluribus, which has the support of 65.4% of experts, 44.4% of editors, and 74.2% of users, while The Pitt's support consists of 34.6% of experts, 55.6% of editors, and 22.6% of users. Task follows with 1.9%, then The Gilded Age and Slow Horses tied at 0.6%, with Paradise bringing up the rear at 0.1%.
Saul Metzstein talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series for Slow Horses.
Yes, congratulations!
I close the above-the-jump portion with a category that went the way Gold Derby thought it would.
Professional opinion is much more united behind Vince Gilligan and Pluribus for his writing, as every editor and 80.0% of experts along with 80.1% of users expect Gilligan will escape the podium with the statuette. The next choice among experts at 8.0% and users at 10.9% is the "12:00 P.M." of The Pitt. Slow Horses also has 8.0% of experts and 6.7% of users. The "1:00 P.M." episode of The Pitt picked up the remaining 4.0% of experts along with 0.7% of users. The Diplomat and Task split the rest of the user vote at 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively.
Vince Gilligan accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series for Pluribus at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Well said!
Those were the winners on Monday. Follow over the jump for the winners the Sunday before I didn't already recognize, all of which are science fiction, horror, or fantasy, including fantasy-adjacent, as Bridgerton was retelling a fairy tale, namely Cinderella.
When I wrote 'Widow's Bay' wins 8 Emmys and could win up to 6 more, I was anticipating a possible sweep by Widow's Bay with Hacks winning only one award. That happened. Widow's Bay won all six categories it was contesting Monday night, including Outstanding Comedy Series. Time to revisit the predictions.
Gold Derby's prognosticators reacted to Widow's Bay's Creative Arts Emmy Awards eight wins the same way they did to DTF St. Louis winning six Emmy Awards, elevating it over the prior favorite, Hacks. The latest odds have improved 26% for Widow's Bay while they've dropped 24% for Hacks, as 87.0% of experts, 70.0% of editors, and 65.8% of users are now voting for Widow's Bay, while 13.0% of experts. 30.0% of editors, and 32.7% of users are sticking with Hacks. The remaining 1.5% of users have made long-shot bets on the rest of the nominees, 0.4% each for Abbott Elementary and The Bear (lo, how the mighty have fallen!), 0.3% each for Margo's Got Money Troubles and Only Murders in the Building, and 0.1% for Nobody Wants This. No one picked poor Shrinking.
The oddsmakers continued to move to Widow's Bay, which had the votes of 89.3% of experts, 77.8% of editors, and 74.3% of users, while support for Hacks fell to 10.7% of experts, 22.2% of editors, and 24.4% of users as people at Gold Derby jumped aboard the Widow's Bay bandwagon. Like DTF St. Louis, the bandwagoneers called it. Watch Comedy Series: 78th Emmys.
The team from Widow's Bay accept the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Congratulations! I'll have a winnerview from Katie Dippold, who accepted the award, just above the jump. In the meantime, I'm moving on to Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series, the one comedy category not won by Widow's Bay.
Meanwhile, the Gold Derby odds have actually improved for Jean Smart by 2% this week as every editor, 91.7% of experts, and 92.1% of users expect she will repeat for her final turn at the role. Speaking of final turns, the remaining 8.3% of experts along with 5.6% [of users] chose Lisa Kudrow for her final season of The Comeback. The rest of the users distributed their picks among Saturn Award winner Elle Fanning with 1.4%, Quinta Brunson with 0.8%, and Ayo Edebiri with 0.2%.
Jean Smart from Hacks talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.
Congratulations to Smart on her final Emmy for Hacks and good luck with Paradise General!
On the other hand, the odds for Matthew Rhys increased 2% this week as every editor and expert along with 95.5% of users expect he will walk away from the podium with his second Emmy (he's likely to get a third for the show as a producer). Martin Short is the users' second choice with 3.0%, followed by Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Jason Segal tied at 0.6%, then Steve Carell with the final 0.3%.
By the time of the ceremony, 97.0% of the users joined every editor and expert in predicting Rhys. They were right. Watch Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: 78th Emmys.
Matthew Rhys accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for Widow's Bay. After his win for The Beast in Me, it is his second Emmy win of the night.
Listen to that ovation! They knew they were seeing history in the making! Also, it's not every year I hear Welsh at an awards ceremony.
Matthew Rhys talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for The Beast in Me, and the Emmy for Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for Widow's Bay.
Again, congratulations!
The Gold Derby odds for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series had been close until Sunday, but that night's results caused Kate O'Flynn to fly high above Hannah Einbeinder, as O'Flynn's chances rose 16%, while Einbeinder's dropped 14% and Janelle James' odds sank 2% with hers. O'Flynn is now the choice of 83.3% of experts, 60.0% of editors and 74.3% of users, while Einbeinder retains 12.5% of experts, 30.0% of editors, and 21.7% of users. James has the remaining 4.2% of experts plus 2.5% of users. Professional and user opinion splits on the rest of the field, as the last 10.0% of experts but only 0.4% of users decided Dale Dickey deserves the Emmy, while 1.1% of users made Michelle Pfeiffer their choice. No one is picking Megan Stalter or Jessica Williams.
More of Gold Derby climbed aboard the bandwagon by the ceremony, when 93.1% of experts, 66.7% of editors, and 79.0% of users were riding it to victory. Watch Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: 78th Emmys.
Kate O'Flynn accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: 78th Emmys.
Kate O'Flynn from Widow's Bay talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series.
Congratulations! Now on to the last acting category today, Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series.
Harrison Ford's odds dropped 8% this week pulling Paul W. Downs 3% with him while Stephen Root's chances rose 11%. Even so, Ford still leads with the support of 58.3% of experts, 20.0% of editors, and 57.2% of users, while Root is gaining as the choice of 80.0% of editors, 25.0% of experts, and 33.9% of users. Gold Derby's editors really like Widow's Bay. Downs' chances depend on retaining 12.5% of experts and 4.7% of users. Professionals and amateurs diverge on fourth on the odds, as 4.2% of experts but only 0.4% of users count Colman Domingo in, while 3.1% of users opt for Nick Offerman. Tyler James Williams' chances also fell 1% this week as he now has the votes of 0.5% of users, while Michael Urie retains the support of 0.1% of users.
Ford barely led by Monday's ceremony with the support of 57.1% of experts, 10.0% of editors, and 54.2% of users, while is voters drifted to Root, who ended up with the backing of 90.0% of editors but still 25.0% of experts and 37.4% of users. As I've written, the editors love Widow's Bay and they were right. Watch Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: 78th Emmys.
Stephen Root accepts the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series Emmy for Widow's Bay at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Stephen Root from Widow's Bay talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series.
I'm with Albert Lawrence; don't let Root's words fall on deaf ears.
Despite my using the image for Lucia Aniello of Hacks, she's in second in Gold Derby's odds behind Hiro Murai of Widow's Bay, whose chances rose 13% this week while Aniello's fell 12%. Murai is the choice of 92.0% of experts, 90.0% of editors, and 83.5% of users while Aniello retains 8.0% of experts, 10.0% of editors, and 15.4% of users. The rest of the nominees have 0.1-0.6% users support each.
One of the experts moved from Murai to Aniello, lowering his percentage to 10.0%, while multiple users shifted to Murai, raising their portion to 89.7%. Still, the overwhelming portion called it. Watch Directing for a Comedy Series: 78th Emmys.
Hiro Murai accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series for Widow's Bay at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Hiro Murai talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series for Widow’s Bay.
I appreciated Murai's insights into the fine line between comedy and horror, which has now had a great year at the Emmys to match the genre's great year at the Oscars.
Hacks' odds fell 6% but the show still leads, barely, as the choice of 52.0% of experts, 30.0% of editors, and 76.7% of users while Widow's Bay rose 6% but still sits in a close second with 48.0% of experts, 70.0% of editors, and 20.9% of users. I told you, the editors love Widow's Bay. The rest of the nominees have between 1.4% and 0.2% of users choosing them.
Another 10% of editors switched to Widow's Bay for a total of 90.0% by Monday night, where the Emmy electorate proved them right. Watch Writing for a Comedy Series: 78th Emmys.
Katie Dippold accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series for Widow's Bay.
Before the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, Beef led the Gold Derby odds to win this category. Now, DTF St. Louis leads as the choice of 56.5% of experts, 87.5% of editors, and 61.5% of users, while Beef retains 43.5% of experts, 12.5% of editors, and 36.1% of users. All Her Fault, which I had penciled in as an early favorite for this category, is running far behind with 1.1% of users. The Beast in Me and Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette tie for fourth with 0.6% of users each.
By the time of the ceremony, nearly all the professionals and more of the users jumped aboard the DTF St. Louis bandwagon, as every editor, 81.3% of experts, and 82.9% committed their votes to it, while 15.6% of experts and 15.3% of users stuck with Beef. The bandwagoneers called it. Watch Limited or Anthology Series: 78th Emmys.
The team from DTF St. Louis accept the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series at the 78th Emmys.
The team from DTF St. Louis talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series.
Congratulations, including to Jason Bateman, who is one of the executive producers, so he won an Emmy for the show, if not his acting in the next category, which was not his last chance to win an Emmy at this ceremony. Oops!
Oscar Issac is down 3% in the Gold Derby odds, but is still the choice of 69.6% of experts, 50.0% of editors, and 76.7% of users. Matthew Rhys gained 3% and now has the votes of 21.7% of experts, 37.5% of editors, and 18.5% of users. Rhys could win two Emmys next Monday, as he's favored to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for Widow's Bay, but it's not likely. Riz Ahmed is third as the pick of 8.7% of experts, 12.5% of editors, and 1.7% of users. He's followed by Jason Bateman who has the support of 2.1% of users for his final chance to win an Emmy at these awards and Charlie Hunnam with 1.0% of users.
Matthew Rhys accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for The Beast in Me at the 78th Emmys.
And he won Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series in a comedy series, too, making him the first actor to win two lead acting awards at the Emmys. Added to his Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for The Americans, and Rhys is the only actor so far to win in all three lead acting categories, comedy, drama, and limited series. Congratulations! Since I'm going to cover I>Widow's Bay in a future installment, I'm saving his Winnerview for then.
I'm moving on to Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, which also was a slight upset, but not a complete surprise.
Carey Mulligan leads as the choice of 70% of experts, 50% of editors, and 69.7%, but the professionals and fans differ on the next choice, with 10% of experts, 33.3% of editors, and 7.1% of users picking Sally Fields while 10% of experts and 17.3% of users [are] selecting Sarah Snook. Sarah Pigeon also has the support of 10% of experts along with 16.7% of editors and 4.8% of users. Claire Danes is the choice of the remaining 1% of users.
Mulligan is down 10% but retains the votes of 52.2% of experts, 37.5% of editors, and 58.4% of users. The professionals and fans still disagree on the next choice, as 21.7% of experts, 37.5% of editors, and 9.1% of users have gravitated to Field to raise her odds 2%, while 18.0% of users, 17.4% of experts and 12.5% of editors are now picking Pigeon, raising her odds 11%. Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette winning Outstanding Limited Series and Movie Casting was going to benefit someone and that's Pigeon. Snook's chances decreased by 4% as despite gaining the votes of 12.5% of editors because she her support among experts and users dropped to 8.7% and 14.1%, respectively. Daines' odds also decreased as she retained the support of 0.5% of users.
Sally Field accepts the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Anthology Series or Movie for Remarkably Bright Creatures at the 78th Emmys.
I agree with Field about Canada and the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger, although the alternative would be Netflix buying Warner Brothers, not an independent Warner Brothers. What the shareholders want and what the Hollywood creatives desire are not the same and the shareholders are in charge unless the courts rule otherwise.
Sally Field talks to Albert Lawrence backstage at the 78th Emmy Awards after winning the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for Remarkably Bright Creatures.
I appreciate Field's perspective on her character and her praise of the source material. Also, despite downplaying her age, she's the oldest winner ever in this category. She made history, just like Rhys.
That's a wrap for this installment of the series. I plan on covering more winners on Friday. In the meantime, stay tuned for something really short tomorrow.
Previous posts about the 2026 Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards
The nominees for Outstanding Drama Series are The Diplomat, The Pitt, Slow Horses, The Gilded [Age], A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, Paradise, Pluribus, Your Friends & Neighbors.
The Pitt has a dozen nominations in six categories pending at Monday's ceremony plus four Creative Arts Emmy Awards, five if one counts Inside The Pitt, winner of Outstanding Short Form Nonfiction or Reality Series as a tiebreaker. Pluribus has six Primetime Emmy nominations in six categories plus four Creative Arts Emmys. They are followed by Slow Horses and The Diplomat with five nominations, Paradise with four nominations and one Creative Arts Emmy Award, Task with four nominations, The Gilded Age with three nominations, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms with one nomination and one Creative Arts Emmy, and Your Friends & Neighbors with one nomination.
Unlike their reactions to the multiple wins by Widow's Bay and DTF St. Louis at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, Gold Derby's prognosticators maintained the odds of the existing favorites, The Pitt and Pluribus, depending on the category. Every expert and editor along with 94.1% of users predicts The Pitt will repeat as Outstanding Drama Series. Pluribus is the pick of 5.2% of users, while the rest of the nominees have 0.4% or fewer users behind each.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series are Carrie Coon, Chase Infiniti, Keri Russell, Rhea Seehorn and Zendaya.
Every editor, 84.6% of experts, and 84.4% of users agree with me that this is Rhea Seehorn's award to lose and has been since December. Keri Russell has captivated the remaining 15.4% of experts and 13.0% of users, followed by Zendaya with 2.1% of users. Carrie Coon has 0.3% user support while Chase Infiniti brings up the rear with 0.1%.
The nominees for Lead Actor in a Drama Series are Sterling K. Brown, Gary Oldman, Mark Ruffalo, Rufus Sewell and Noah Wyle.
Every expert and editor plus 95.3% of users are acclaiming Noah Wyle to repeat. Mark Ruffalo is a distant second with 2.5% of users, followed by Gary Oldman with 1.2%, Sterling K. Brown with 0.9%, and Rufus Sewell with 0.1%.
Four actresses from The Pitt earning nominations in this category could result in massive vote splitting that could allow a nominee from another series to slip on through. The other outcome is that the voters look at the nominees side-by-side and decide on the best one. That's what Gold Derby thinks will happen, as a fairly consistent 80.8% of both experts and users along with 88.9% of editors expect Katherine LaNasa will return to the stage, followed by 11.5% of experts and 9.4% of users who suspect Sepideh Moafi will upset, then 11.1% of editors and 5.9% of users captivated by Karolina Wydra, then the remaining 7.7% of experts and 1.8% of users who anticipate Allison Janney will be the best TV president. Taylor Dearden has the support of 1.1% of users, followed by Julianne Nicholson with 0.7%, then Fiona Dourif with 0.2%.
Every editor, 57.7% of experts, and 62.7% of users have picked Patrick Ball to win. On the other hand, 34.6% of experts and 27.4% of users think Tom Pelphrey will take home the Emmy, giving Task the best chance for a drama series other than The Pitt or Pluribus to win an Emmy tomorrow. The remaining 7.7% of experts along with 5.6% of users selected Shawn Hatosy to upset. No, he's not better than Ball, although I think he and the night shift deserve their own spinoff series. They look like fun. The rest of the user vote splits among Billy Crudup at 2.1%, Carlos-Manuel Vesga at 1.0%, Jack Lowden at 0.7%, and Gerran Howell at 0.6%.
The Gilded Age: "My Mind Is Made Up" – Salli Richardson-Whitfield (HBO)
Paradise: "Exodus" – Hanelle Culpepper (Hulu)
The Pitt: "12:00 P.M." – Noah Wyle (HBO Max)
Pluribus: "We Is Us" – Vince Gilligan (Apple TV)
Slow Horses: "Scars" – Saul Metzstein (Apple TV)
Task: "Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing, there is a river." – Salli Richardson-Whitfield (HBO)
Professional opinion is split on the top two in this category with the users breaking a virtual tie in favor of Vince Gilligan and Pluribus, which has the support of 65.4% of experts, 44.4% of editors, and 74.2% of users, while The Pitt's support consists of 34.6% of experts, 55.6% of editors, and 22.6% of users. Task follows with 1.9%, then The Gilded Age and Slow Horses tied at 0.6%, with Paradise bringing up the rear at 0.1%.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
The Diplomat: "Amagansett" – Peter Akerman and Debora Cahn (Netflix)
The Pitt: "1:00 P.M." – Kirsten Pierre-Geyfman and R. Scott Gemmill (HBO)
The Pitt: "12:00 P.M." – Valerie Chu (HBO)
Pluribus: "We Is Us" – Vince Gilligan (Apple TV)
Slow Horses: "Scars" – Will Smith (Apple TV)
Task: "A Still Small Voice" – Brad Ingelsby (HBO)
Professional opinion is much more united behind Vince Gilligan and Pluribus for his writing, as every editor and 80.0% of experts along with 80.1% of users expect Gilligan will escape the podium with the statuette. The next choice among experts at 8.0% and users at 10.9% is the "12:00 P.M." of The Pitt. Slow Horses also has 8.0% of experts and 6.7% of users. The "1:00 P.M." episode of The Pitt picked up the remaining 4.0% of experts along with 0.7% of users. The Diplomat and Task split the rest of the user vote at 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively.
Follow over the jump for the Creative Arts Emmys won by The Pitt and Pluribus.
The nominees for Outstanding Comedy Series are Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Hacks, Margo's Got Money Troubles, Nobody Wants This, Only Murders In The Building, Shrinking and Widow's Bay.
Widow's Bay was the big winner Sunday night, taking home eight Emmys. It also has seven nominations at next Monday's Primetime Emmy Awards, tying it with Hacks, which only earned one Emmy on Sunday. Abbott Elementary follows with six pending nominations but no wins, then Shrinking with five nominations, Margo's Got Money Troubles with four nominations pending and three wins, The Bear with three nominations and one win, Only Murders in the Building with two nominations, and Nobody Wants This with only this one.
Gold Derby's prognosticators reacted to Widow's Bay's Creative Arts Emmy Awards eight wins the same way they did to DTF St. Louis winning six Emmy Awards, elevating it over the prior favorite, Hacks. The latest odds have improved 26% for Widow's Bay while they've dropped 24% for Hacks, as 87.0% of experts, 70.0% of editors, and 65.8% of users are now voting for Widow's Bay, while 13.0% of experts. 30.0% of editors, and 32.7% of users are sticking with Hacks. The remaining 1.5% of users have made long-shot bets on the rest of the nominees, 0.4% each for Abbott Elementary and The Bear (lo, how the mighty have fallen!), 0.3% each for Margo's Got Money Troubles and Only Murders in the Building, and 0.1% for Nobody Wants This. No one picked poor Shrinking.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series are Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri, Elle Fanning, Lisa Kudrow and Jean Smart.
Meanwhile, the Gold Derby odds have actually improved for Jean Smart by 2% this week as every editor, 91.7% of experts, and 92.1% of users expect she will repeat for her final turn at the role. Speaking of final turns, the remaining 8.3% of experts along with 5.6% chose Lisa Kudrow for her final season of The Comeback. The rest of the users distributed their picks among Saturn Award winner Elle Fanning with 1.4%, Quinta Brunson with 0.8%, and Ayo Edebiri with 0.2%.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series are Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Steve Carell, Matthew Rhys, Jason Segel, and Martin Short.
On the other hand, the odds for Matthew Rhys increased 2% this week as every editor and expert along with 95.5% of users expect he will walk away from the podium with his second Emmy (he's likely to get a third for the show as a producer). Martin Short is the users' second choice with 3.0%, followed by Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Jason Segal tied at 0.6%, then Steve Carell with the final 0.3%.
The Gold Derby odds for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series had been close until Sunday, but that night's results caused Kate O'Flynn to fly high above Hannah Einbeinder, as O'Flynn's chances rose 16%, while Einbeinder's dropped 14% and Janelle James' odds sank 2% with hers. O'Flynn is now the choice of 83.3% of experts, 60.0% of editors and 74.3% of users, while Einbeinder retains 12.5% of experts, 30.0% of editors, and 21.7% of users. James has the remaining 4.2% of experts plus 2.5% of users. Professional and user opinion splits on the rest of the field, as the last 10.0% of experts but only 0.4% of users decided Dale Dickey deserves the Emmy, while 1.1% of users made Michelle Pfeiffer their choice. No one is picking Megan Stalter or Jessica Williams.
Harrison Ford's odds dropped 8% this week pulling Paul W. Downs 3% with him while Stephen Root's chances rose 11%. Even so, Ford still leads with the support of 58.3% of experts, 20.0% of editors, and 57.2% of users, while Root is gaining as the choice of 80.0% of editors, 25.0% of experts, and 33.9% of users. Gold Derby's editors really like Widow's Bay. Downs' chances depend on retaining 12.5% of experts and 4.7% of users. Professionals and amateurs diverge on fourth on the odds, as 4.2% of experts but only 0.4% of users count Colman Domingo in, while 3.1% of users opt for Nick Offerman. Tyler James Williams' chances also fell 1% this week as he now has the votes of 0.5% of users, while Michael Urie retains the support of 0.1% of users.
Those are all the nominees in front of the camera. Follow over the jump for all the nominees behind the camera and the winners on Sunday night.
