Monday, March 18, 2024

Vox asks 'Is the US running out of Social Security?'

Today's post is a follow-up of sorts to PBS Terra asks 'What Happens When Demographics Change Forever?' Watch as Vox asks and attempts to answer Is the US running out of Social Security?

There’s no denying that Americans rely heavily on Social Security benefits. Estimates from the Social Security Administration found that 97% of adults over the age of 60 are either collecting or will start collecting Social Security. As of February 2023, about one in every five residents in the US collected benefits from these funds. For such a widely used program, it’s a bit surprising that people in the US know so little about how it works. To be fair, most of the news around this program over the past decade has been about how it’s doomed in one way or another. Millennials and younger may see the money being taxed from their paychecks and believe they’ll probably never see it again, but is the program really destined to fail? And what do we stand to lose if it does? Check out the video above to get the most basic facts about Social Security in the United States and what to expect in the coming years.
The answer to the question is "not until 2033 at current rates" and even then, "not really." Eighty percent of current benefits would not be a good outcome, but it's definitely not nothing. As for the solutions that would maintain current levels of benefits, the one I'm most familiar with is increasing the cap on income being taxed. I'm O.K. with that, but that's because I don't quite earn enough to have the payroll tax not deducted from my final paycheck of the year. Even if I did, I might want that money after I retire, which I plan on doing in December 2026. As for taxing investment income, that's something I hadn't considered, but I'd like even more if it could happen. Good luck making that happen with the current House of Representatives, although it wouldn't be them doing it anyway. I expect nothing will happen until 2029 at the earliest.

Since this video deals with the intersection among demographics, economy, and government, it's something I'd be tempted to show my students as part of the unit on population I'm teaching right now. It even features an animated age structure. Unfortunately, it has an ad in the middle of it. I'm not showing that to my students!

That's it for today's evergreen non-holiday post. Stay tuned for the next installment of marching music for primaries and caucuses on the Vernal Equinox.

Sunday, March 17, 2024

The luck of the Irish was with Cillian Murphy at the Oscars for St. Patrick's Day

Happy St. Patrick's Day! I telegraphed the subject of today's post at the end of yesterday's entry.
Stay tuned for the Sunday entertainment feature on St. Patrick's Day. The luck of the Irish for Cillian Murphy at the Oscars, anyone?
Without any further ado, I present Cillian Murphy Wins Best Actor for 'Oppenheimer' | 96th Oscars (2024).

Cillian Murphy wins the Oscar for Best Actor for his role in 'Oppenheimer'.
That's quite the all-star line-up of presenters! Also, Murphy is right to be a very proud Irishman. Thanks to him for dedicating his Oscar to all the peacemakers. The world needs it!

I continue the celebration with Cillian Murphy | Best Actor in a Leading Role | Oscars 2024 Press Room Speech.

Best Actor in a Leading Role 'Oppenheimer' winner Cillian Murphy speaking to acclaimed press moments after Oscar win.
Not only is Murphy a proud Irishman, the Irish are proud of him, as evidenced by the first and last questions from Irish media. This includes Irish-American me. Congratulations to Murphy, Christopher Nolan, Robert Downey, Jr., and all the behind-the-scenes winners of Oscars for Oppenheimer!

Follow over the jump for three Irish-American Oscar winners in two categories.

Saturday, March 16, 2024

PBS Terra asks 'What Happens When Demographics Change Forever?'

My blog passed its page view goals for the month this morning, so I will intersperse evergreen content among all my planned holiday and retrospective posts through Easter. Today's topic comes from PBS Terra, which asks What Happens When Demographics Change Forever?

Are we on the brink of population collapse? Some economists and tech billionaires (like Elon Musk) think so. After all, birth rates are declining, and some argue an aging population could strain social services and hurt the economy. (On the other hand, some say, slower population growth could be more sustainable for our environment.) Whichever argument you sympathize with, here's a key thing to understand about this trend: Demographers predicted it. In fact, they've been expecting for years. Their advice? Don’t freak out. Here’s what changing demographics might mean for our planet and the future.
Like NOVA warns of 'The Next Pompeii' for the Ides of March, this video covers a story I tell my students, this time one about population. In fact, I just added this video to the PowerPoint for that lecture and plan on showing it to my environmental science class on Tuesday. They'll see it right before the first video in Vox and CNBC explain 'Why China's population is shrinking' and 'What [it] Means For The Global Economy'. I hope they don't find it too repetitive.

Speaking of being repetitive, I'm being a good environmentalist by recycling two points from CNBC asks 'Is The U.S. Running Out Of People?'
Second, increased population is bad for the environment, as expressed by the variable P in I=P*A*T "where I is impact, P is population, A is affluence, and T is technology." Impact increases as both population and affluence increases; both drive up demand for resources and create more waste and pollution. Therefore, keeping population down will help the environment. By keeping human population below the carrying capacity for our species, it helps people as well.

Third, increasing educational and economic opportunities for women is the number one way to decrease birth rates and keep them down, although increasing economic security might put a floor under the declining birth rates. Women's education and a stronger economy will also increase affluence, which will increase impact if more efficient technologies don't counteract both affluence and population.
The video makes both of these points, which I hope my students absorb.

I close by repeating what I worried about six years ago and have repeated several times since.
I have been in favor of zero population growth for as long as I can remember. However, I'm not sure the U.S. economy is set up for a stable or slowly declining population, a point I made in the Hipcrime Vocab: Why Slowing Population Growth is a Problem. We are going to have to figure how to do so. Otherwise, I might live long enough to experience the wisdom of the saying "Be careful what you wish for; you might get it."

Stay tuned for the Sunday entertainment feature on St. Patrick's Day. The luck of the Irish for Cillian Murphy at the Oscars, anyone?

Friday, March 15, 2024

NOVA warns of 'The Next Pompeii' for the Ides of March

Beware the Ides of March! After three years of Roman-themed drum corps shows, I'm returning to the theme of death and destruction in the Roman world and other dire warnings with The Next Pompeii from NOVA on PBS.

In the shadow of Vesuvius and Pompeii, a lesser-known volcano puts the city of Naples at risk. (Aired February 20, 2019)
...
In the shadow of Italy’s Vesuvius, a lesser-known volcano rumbles: Campi Flegrei. An eruption could endanger the millions of residents of the city of Naples. Scientists gain new insights into what happened in nearby Pompeii, and dig into the unique geology of Campi Flegrei. How will they know if the ever-shifting ground is reaching a breaking point? And can an innovative eruption warning system prevent Naples becoming the next Pompeii?
This episode contains several stories I tell my students, although I learned new things about nearly every one of them to update my lessons. The first one I describe to my geology students is the principle volcanologist Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo states, that processes that happened in the past are likely to repeat in the future, so understanding the past is essential for preparation. This is a key takeaway from uniformitarianism, the concept that everything we see in nature is the result of everyday processes occurring over sufficient time, which is boiled down to "the present is the key to the past." It also means that the past is the key to the future.*

The second story I show is of the Macellum of Pozzuoli, the Roman marketplace with the three columns containing holes from boring clams showing that they had been submerged and then lifted out of the sea. These appear in the frontispiece of Principles of Geology by Charles Lyell, the first geology textbook, as examples of processes acting over sufficient time lowering and then raising the ground the pillars stood on. I had never seen photographs of them, but I recognized them instantly from the illustration.

Both of the above appear in the second lecture of my geology course. The rest appear three lectures later, when I discuss volcanoes, beginning with my describing calderas. I use Mount St. Helens, Crater Lake, and Yellowstone as examples, but Campi Flegrei works just as well for explaining the mechanism of caldera formation. I also describe pyroclastic flows and Plinian eruptions, employing Mount Pinatubo and Mount Pelée as examples. In fact, I recognized some of the clips of vehicles fleeing pyroclastic flows as videos of Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1992. I also recognized the cause of the earliest deaths in Pompeii from Mount Pinatubo, as the roofs collapsed at U.S. military bases nearby from the weight of the ash. At least there, the Navy and Air Force had evacuated everyone.

Finally, using seismic waves to map the interior of the planet is a topic I include in my lecture about earthquakes. Using the sound of crashing waves to do so is something I may have encountered before, but it didn't stick. I'm sure it stuck this time, meaning I learned something new. It's always a good day when I learn something new, especially when I can share it with my students. Speaking of which, I will recommend this video to them. I hope they, along with my readers, find it as fascinating as I did.

I close with Garbage's cover of Siouxie and the Banshees song about the eruption of Vesuvius and destruction of Pompeii I embedded in Two songs about Pompeii and a volcano drink for the Ides of March six years ago, Cities in Dust.

The official video for Garbage's cover of “Cities in Dust” by Siouxsie and the Banshees, off their ‘Witness To Your Love’ EP.
One of the comments reads "Garbage covering Siouxsie and the Banshees is essentially a life-long dream come true." I agree. As soon as I heard this, I penciled it in for today's post.

Stay tuned for a non-holiday entry tomorrow, followed by St. Patrick's Day on Sunday, the Vernal Equinox on Tuesday, Happy International Day of Nowruz and the 13th birthday of Crazy Eddie's Motie News on Thursday, World Water Day on Friday, and Purim followed by Holi on Saturday and Monday. Busy, busy, busy!

*This reminds me of "Who controls the past, controls the future: who controls the present, controls the past" from 1984. Now I wonder if George Orwell had taken a science course that mentioned uniformitarianism and that later inspired him. File that under things that make me go "hmm."

Thursday, March 14, 2024

30 digits of Pi from DCI for Pi Day


Happy Pi Day, International Day of Mathematics, and Science Education Day! Today is the tenth anniversary of A drum corps Pi Day, so I'm celebrating today with Drum Corps International (DCI) wishing its fans Happy Pi Day!

March 14 is Pi Day! Learn the first 30 digits of Pi with DCI through the years.
Once I saw this video, I knew I would use it for today.

For my readers who want something more conventional to celebrate the day, I'm sharing National Day Calendar's National Pi Day | March 14th.



March 14th is National Pi Day!

That's it for today's geeky celebration. I'm sharing a warning for tomorrow: Beware the Ides of March!

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

'Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey' biggest Razzies 'winner' followed by 'Expend4bles'


It's time to acknowledge last year's worst films, so watch 44th Annual Razzie Awards Hosted by The Mean Gays.

The Mean Gays Take Over The 44th Razzies®

For this year’s version of Tinseltown’s Most Notorious Trophy Derby, the 44th Annual Razzies® Awards co-founders dared something new.

Under the production banner of Evan Mirzai and House of M, viral comedic personalities The Mean Gays (Aaron Goldenberg & Jake Jonez) act as hosts, writers and producers of this year's 44th Razzie digital ceremony entitled THE MEAN GAYS TAKE OVER THE 44th RAZZIES®.
While Exorcist: Believer and Expend4bles tied for most Razzie nominations with seven each, neither was the big "winner." That dishonor went to Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey, which took five Golden Raspberries home for Worst Picture, Worst Director, Worst Screen Combo, Worst Remake, Rip-off or Sequel, and Worst Screenplay. Expend4bles walked off the virtual platform with two Razzies, Worst Supporting Actor for Sylvester Stallone and Worst Supporting Actress for Megan Fox. Fox earned a second statuette for Worst Actress in Johnny & Clyde. I predicted as much in Colbert, Meyers, and 'The Daily Show' take closer looks at Supreme Court hearing immunity appeal.
Mocking Seth doing his job by promoting Shazam! Fury of the Gods reminded me that the film earned four Razzie nominations, although two of those are for Helen Mirren in Worst Actress and Lucy Liu in Worst Supporting Actress. Hey, those two are the only reasons I want to watch the film! At least I don't think either will win — Megan Fox could easily win both categories — but Gold Derby hasn't opened up odds for this year's Razzies — yet.
And Fox won both actress categories. No surprise there, no thanks to Gold Derby, which never did post odds for this year's Razzies.

While I mocked the Golden Raspberries for their bad math skills for missing that Exorcist: Believer and Expend4bles tied for most Razzie nominations, instead reporting that Expend4bles had the most nominations by itself, they did feature the worse film, as Exorcist: Believer took home no Razzies. I'll give them that much, even if it was by mistake.

Finally, Jon Voight "won" Worst Actor for Mercy — I enjoyed the snide aside that MAGA doesn't mean "Make Acting Great Again" — and Fran Drescher won Razzie Redeemer "for her brilliant shepherding of the actors' guild through a prolonged 2023 strike with a successful conclusion." Congratulations!

I'm already looking ahead to next year's nominees, as I wrote in 'SNL' mocks 'Biden is old' in 'Inside Politics' cold open.
I'm a little worried for Sweeney for reasons that I mentioned in 'SNL' tackles E. Jean Carroll judgment, DeSantis endorsement, Nikki Haley, and more — "here's to hoping Madame Web doesn't earn at least one Razzie Award nomination next year and Johnson doesn't earn one as well for her role." I'm afraid Madame Web will earn multiple Razzie nominations and might even win some of them. I just hope Sweeney escapes being nominated.
The only thing that might save Madame Web is that Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey 2 is coming out this year. I'm sure that will be worse, not bad enough to prevent nominations for Dakota Johnson and Sydney Sweeney, but bad enough to win, although the original earned no acting nominations.

Enough of today's entertainment update. Stay tuned for a string of holidays, Pi Day, International Day of Mathematics, and Science Education Day tomorrow, the Ides of March on Friday, and St. Patrick's Day and Irish American Heritage Month on Sunday. Busy, busy, busy!

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Marching music for primaries in Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington plus Democrats Abroad

I closed Four years of the COVID-19 pandemic by telling my readers "Stay tuned for this year's edition of Marching music for the Washington, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad, and Georgia primaries." I'm going in alphabetical order by state, which happens to be by poll closing time east to west, followed by a non-North American drum corps and Rose Parade band to represent Democrats Abroad. I kick off the music to watch and listen while waiting for results with with Spirit of Atlanta | #DCI2021 | "Bottle Tree" from Drum Corps International (DCI).

Spirit of Atlanta of Atlanta, Georgia, performs a segment from the corps' #DCI2021 production, "Bottle Tree," during the DCI Celebration events hosted August 12-14 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
DCI hasn't uploaded any more recent shows, so I'm following up with Spirit of Atlanta – "Up Down and All Around" | DCI Finals 2023 from Pageantry Innovations, which at least isn't a bootleg of the FloMarching video, so it will stay up.

Enjoy Spirit of Atlanta's 2023 production, “Up Down and All Around” from the perspective of their synthesizer performer & audio engineer.
Much like Vic Firth Marching, a drum stick maker whose videos I've embedded as part of this series, Pageantry Innovations is an instrument and equipment maker, in this case the carts for the synthesizers and soundboard. That makes this advertising, but I'm O.K. with that.

Georgia also has an all-age corps, Atlanta CV. Watch Atlanta CV Drum & Bugle Corps 2018 Show Clip By Box5TV, an official clip from Drum Corps Associates.

Provided by Box5TV, enjoy this show clip of the 2018 AtlantaCV from DCA World Championships!
Follow over the jump for the rest of the drum corps and marching bands representing Georgia, Mississippi, Washington, and Democrats Abroad.

Monday, March 11, 2024

Four years of the COVID-19 pandemic

Today is the fourth anniversary of the WHO declaring COVID-19 a global pandemic. ABC 7 News - WJLA in Washington, D.C., observed the occasion with 7News marks 4 years since COVID-19 pandemic declaration with survivor's harrowing tales.

By March 11, 2020, there were more than 118,000 cases and 4,291 worldwide deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Four years later, 7News is reflecting on how the pandemic impacted local communities.
That's a graphic and terrifying retrospective of how fast the disease spread, how much it disrupted everyday life, and how that felt to everyone affected. I had half-forgotten all of that, but realized how important it was to be reminded. The last time I felt like that was watching the opening of season 2 of The Morning Show, when my reaction was "You poor people. You have no idea what you're in for."

That's the past. Fox 5 New York described the effects of the pandemic on the present when it asked COVID-19: 4 years later: Where are we now?

NYC's health commissioner, Dr. Ashwin Vasan shares the progress we have made since COVID hit our nation four years ago.
That's good news and bad news. The good news is that we are better able to protect ourselves against COVID-19. The bad news is that people have become more vaccine-skeptical, not only about the COVID-19 vaccines, but about the MMR vaccine as well. That's led to a measles outbreak. WDIV talks about all of the above in 4 years of COVID: Michigan's top doctor on COVID today, measles & more.


I live in Metro Detroit, so of course I'd include a local report when I can find a good one, even if it was about bad news.

Vaccine skepticism is not the only bad effect of the reaction to the pandemic. MSNBC uploaded ‘COVID stole our optimism’: Reminding Americans how bad things were four years ago.

Polls show a big difference between what Americans think of President Biden’s economy compared to what we had under Donald Trump. Now the GOP is reminding everyone what life was like four years ago - when the COVID pandemic transformed our country. Molly Jong-Fast, Maya Wiley, Christine Romans, and Mary Harris discuss with Stephanie Ruhle on this week’s Nightcap.
Are you better off now than you were four years ago? No? Really? Feelings are not facts!

Today is also the 13th anniversary of the Fukushima triple disaster, but I've had enough of tragedy. Stay tuned for this year's edition of Marching music for the Washington, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad, and Georgia primaries.

Sunday, March 10, 2024

'SNL' satirizes the State of the Union and response

It's Sunday, so it's time for a highlights post of last night's Saturday Night Live! I begin, like the show, with State of the Union Cold Open.

CNN covers President Biden’s (Mikey Day) State of the Union address and Republican Senator Katie Britt's (Scarlett Johansson) response.
I knew this would be the cold open, but I had no idea that Scarlett Johansson would play Senator Katie Britt. Surprise! I guess it pays to be married to one of the hosts of Weekend Update, which is up next with more State of the Union coverage.

Weekend Update anchors Colin Jost and Michael Che tackle the week's biggest news, like Marjorie Taylor Greene heckling Biden during his State of the Union address, Democrats criticizing Biden for calling migrants "illegals" and Republican Senator Katie Britt's video response.
Looks like Colin got the better jokes last night.

Weekend Update had no entertainment news and no interviews, which meant that it ignored tonight's Oscars, an easy target. Never fear, SNL had an entire sketch sending up the awards, Moulin Rouge.

PBS host Ken Burnt (Mikey Day) takes a look back at the 2001 film Moulin Rouge starring Nicole Kidman (Ariana Grande) and Ewan McGregor (Bowen Yang).
Go Glinda and Pfannee from Wicked! Yes, Ariana Grande and Bowen Yang are in the movie together. Sometimes it pays to read the comments.

I could end here, as that sketch justified this post as the Sunday entertainment feature, but my wife asked me to include the following video about the State of the Union from The Late Show with Stephen Colbert: Nickelodeon’s State Of The Union Simulcast.

Addressin’ the nation and Congress is he!
Joseph Biden! That's a great parody, but it might actually be a good idea to get kids interested in politics. Spongebob Squarepants has taught them when Leif Erikson Day is. Hinga Dinga Durgen!

That's it for today's recap. Enjoy tonight's Academy Awards, for tomorrow is a double anniversary of tragedy, the pandemic arriving in Michigan and the Fukushima triple disaster. Stay tuned.

Saturday, March 9, 2024

Grammys, other awards, and Oscar nominations for 'Barbie' on Barbie Day


Happy National Barbie Day! "On March 9th, National Barbie Day celebrates an iconic toy that premiered on this day in 1959. Barbie debuted at the American International Toy Fair in New York." Happy 65th birthday, Barbie!

As I wrote yesterday I plan on celebrating by examining Barbie's Oscar nominations and awards show wins, including at the Grammys. Follow over the jump.