The 2026 El Niño could be the strongest we’ve ever seen. And to understand its potential impacts, we’ll take a trip back in time to 1877. That El Niño triggered one of the most devastating natural disasters in human history. What could this one do?Yikes! This is the first I've learned about the famines of 1877 and 1878, so it shocks me that they were so deadly. That the British Empire made things worse was the least surprising part of the story; Infidel753 and I had the following exchange in the comments to SciShow warns 'The Potato Famine Could Happen Again'.
Infidel753: Obviously any threat to the world's third-largest food crop is a serious concern, but this video hugely understates how much the Irish potato famine was exacerbated by politics. "Unhelpful policies adopted by their neighbors in the UK" doesn't begin to cover it. At that time Ireland was completely under British rule (part of the British Empire), a colonial possession under the heel of a government the Irish had no say in. The conservative British government at the time refused to provide any help at all to the starving Irish, partly motivated by racism (Celtic people were thought of as a different race at the time) and partly by a pull-yourselves-up-by-your-bootstraps Ayn-Rand-like mentality which was common in the ruling class at the time (this was later applied during a famine in British-ruled India, with equally disastrous results).Infidel has English ancestry, while I identify as Irish, but we both agree on what the British did to the Irish and how terrible it was.
If the colonial government had merely provided the normal level of food aid typical of what governments do in such situations, most of the deaths would have been prevented. If such potato crop failures were to occur today, presumably modern governments would do their job and provide help to the affected people.
Me: Thanks for adding the needed context to the video. Yes, the British/English made things much worse by continuing to use Ireland as a resource colony throughout the famine, including making the Irish pay their rent in wheat and Ireland being a net exporter of food. They also exported those policies to the rest of the British Empire, as you pointed out. What they did in India, they did it in Ireland first.
I'm also reminded of what I wrote in 'Human Footprint' on PBS Terra describes 'The Mysterious Mass Extinction Hidden in LA' explaining why studying the past is important for predicting the future.
It also reminds me of two examples of why studying the past is important for understanding the present and predicting the future. The first comes from Prehistoric lions of Eurasia and North America for World Lion Day 2022: "one of the points of paleontology is to learn from the past and apply the knowledge gained to the present." The other I wrote in NOVA warns of 'The Next Pompeii' for the Ides of March.What I learned today belongs in that file, too.[P]rocesses that happened in the past are likely to repeat in the future, so understanding the past is essential for preparation. This is a key takeaway from uniformitarianism, the concept that everything we see in nature is the result of everyday processes occurring over sufficient time, which is boiled down to "the present is the key to the past." It also means that the past is the key to the future.File all the above under "it's a always a good day when I learn something new."
Vox included less history but more current events when it explained How a Super El Niño affects the global climate.
On June 11, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño advisory after temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained higher than average for several months. Declaring an El Niño isn’t out of the ordinary, as they happen in cycles every two to seven years. But this one could be extraordinary.Vox examined the disturbing possibilities even deeper, including the historical analogues, in The “Godzilla El Niño” is coming | The Gray Area.
Some are calling it a “Super” or “Godzilla” El Niño, and the NOAA predicts an 81 percent chance that it could develop to a “very strong” level, rivaling the historic and devastating El Niños of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Experts are predicting it will likely reach its peak this winter and into 2027, bringing heat, rainfall, and other potential extreme weather events.
But even with that foresight and climate models that can confidently predict what might be in store, we still face a test of what could potentially be the strongest El Niño ever recorded and the wild weather that comes with it. We spoke with atmospheric scientists and meteorologists to find out how a Super El Niño forms, why it changes global climate, and what we should expect in the coming months.
Sean talks with journalist David Wallace-Wells about a looming climate event that could make 2027 one of the hottest years ever recorded. They discuss the return of El Niño, why some scientists are calling it a “Godzilla El Niño,” and what it could reveal about the future of global warming. They also explore climate adaptation, political complacency, extreme weather, technological progress, and whether humanity is prepared for the world it’s creating.I'd prefer Godzilla on movie and television screens, not in the weather. That written, it's worth knowing what's coming so I and others can be prepared for it.
That's a wrap for today. Stay tuned for more awards show coverage as the Sunday entertainment feature.
