Sunday, January 25, 2026

'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners' lead screenplay categories at the Oscars according to Gold Derby


I promised more awards show coverage for today's Sunday entertainment feature and I'm following through with the screenplay nominees and their odds of winning, beginning with Best Adapted Screenplay.

Just like it did at the Critics Choice Awards, One Battle After Another leads Best Adapted Screenplay as the choice of 81.8% of experts, 66.7% of editors, and 90.3% of users. Hamnet sits in second as the selection of the remaining 18.2% of experts and 33.3% of editors plus 6.9% of users. Frankenstein follows far behind with 1.1% of users, then Train Dreams with 1.0% user support, and Bugonia last with 0.7% of users. This looks a lot like the odds for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards.
One Battle After Another still leads as the choice of every editor, 81.3% of experts, and 90.9% of users. The experts and users are moving in opposite directions. The remaining experts are now split between Hamnet and Train Dreams with 12.5% and 6.3% expert expectations of winning, respectively. Hamnet is now the pick of 6.5% of users, followed by No Other Choice, Frankenstein, Bugonia, and Train Dreams follow with 1.0%, 0.9%, 0.4%, and 0.3% of users supporting each, respectively.
The field is the same except for No Other Choice dropping out because of the field being trimmed from six to five.* Gold Derby thinks the results will be the same, too, with One Battle After Another winning. Since Critics Choice didn't upload the acceptance speech to its YouTube channel, I'm sharing the graphic from its Twitter/X account instead.


Congratulations for this award and the next one, Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes.
Here, the leading nominees for adapted and original screenplays are contending with each other and One Battle After Another is Gold Derby's choice to win over Sinners with the former in first as the choice of 72.7% of experts, 50.0% of editors, and 66.1% of users and the latter in third as the selection of 9.1% of experts, 16.7% of editors, and 9.5% of users. Second place? It Was Just an Accident, picked by 18.2% of experts, 33.3% of editors, and 17.8% of users. It's also the leading nominee for Best Non-English Film over Sentimental Value, which has user support of 3.4% for Best Film Screenplay. Hamnet and Marty Supreme trail as the choices of 2.1% and 1.0% of users.
Watch as Paul Thomas Anderson Wins Best Screenplay – Motion Picture | 83rd Annual Golden Globes.

Paul Thomas Anderson accepts the Best Screenplay – Motion Picture award at the 83rd Annual Golden Globes.
According to Gold Derby, Anderson should prepare to give three speeches on March 15th (Beware the Ides of March!), as he is favored to win Best Director and Best Motion Picture along with the rest of the producers as well as Best Adapted Screenplay. After 14 Oscar nominations, he's on track to finally win three, which Gold Derby thinks will be the majority of the Oscars won by One Battle After Another; the others predicted are Best Supporting Actress for Teyana Taylor and Best Editing.

Follow over the jump for the nominees for Best Original Screenplay and their odds.


I already celebrated Ryan Coogler's win for Best Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards in 'Sinners' wins at the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes for MLK Day weekend, so I'm moving on to Gold Derby's odds for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars, which have Coogler leading for Sinners with the first place votes of 90.9% of experts, every editor, and 88.9% of users. The users and experts split on second place between Sentimental Value with 5.6% of users choosing it and Marty Supreme with the support of the remaining 9.1% of experts and 3.0% of users. It Was Just an Accident and Blue Moon follow as the choices of 2.0% and 0.9% of users, respectively. This is a great showing for Foreign-Language Films!

After being nominated for five Oscars for three movies, Coogler will finally get one. It's likely to be one of four for Sinners according to Gold Derby, the rest being Best Casting, Best Cinematography, and Best Score. That's about one-quarter of Sinners' record 16 Oscar nominations and one short of the most-winning horror movie at the Oscars, Silence of the Lambs.

That's a wrap for today's awards show coverage. Stay tuned for two brief entries worth sharing next month followed by this year's unveiling of the Doomsday Clock on Wednesday.

*No Other Choice disappeared from other categories when the field went from six to five. It was nominated as Best Non-English/Foreign Language/International Film at both the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes, but failed to earn a nomination at the Oscars. It wasn't the biggest snub. That dishonor goes to Wicked: For Good. I expect to see the Saturn Awards nominate both it and its prequel very soon to make up for its lack of Oscar nominations.

Previous posts about the 2026 Oscars Previous posts about the 2025 Critics Choice Awards
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