'Conclave' — fiction vs. reality

I'm looking back at the Oscars and ahead to the new Pope for today's Sunday entertainment feature. First, 'Conclave' Wins Best Adapted Screenplay | 97th Oscars Speech (2025).

Amy Poehler presents Peter Straughan with the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay for 'Conclave' at the 97th Academy Awards.

This was no surprise.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave won the Golden Globe as well as the Critics' Choice Awards and WGA Awards, so it's a prohibitive favorite here; again, all eleven editors voted for it to win.

Just the same, congratulations to Peter Straughan on winning Conclave's only Oscar out of eight nominations.

I'll examine the rest of Gold Derby's predictions over the jump. Right now, I'm sharing TODAY asking What is the conclave? Inside the process for electing a new pope.

Once the period of mourning for Pope Francis is done, the centuries-old tradition of selecting a new pope, known as the conclave, gets underway. NBC’s Keir Simmons reports for TODAY about the process that’s shrouded in secrecy.

NBC News via TODAY seemed to assess the movie Conclave as fairly realistic. Not so John Allen, editor of Crux, the interviewee in PBS NewHour's What to expect as the College of Cardinals prepares to elect a new pope.

Saturday’s funeral and burial of Pope Francis mark the beginning of nine days of official mourning at the Vatican, with cardinals leading masses each day. The words of their homilies will be closely examined and analyzed for clues about what’s on their minds as they prepare to elect a new pope. John Yang speaks with John Allen, editor of Crux, for more.

LOL, Spaceballs. That's not a flattering comparison, but it gives me the opportunity to mention the movie on this blog for only the second time.

I expect I'll return to the topic once the real conclave elects a new Pope. In the meanwhile, follow over the jump to see how Gold Derby's Oscar predictions fared.


Best Picture: Six editors voted for Anora, four chose Conclave, and one picked The Brutalist, which was an early leader, but has since faded. I'm torn, so I'm splitting my pick between Anora and Conclave. Winner: Anora.
Best Director: Ten editors picked Sean Baker for Anora, while one still thinks early leader Brady Corbet can still win for The Brutalist. I'm going with Anora. Winner: Anora.
Best Actress: Eight editors think Saturn Award and Golden Globe winner Demi Moore will win her first Oscar for The Substance. Two think it will be Mikey Madison for Anora. One holdout is hanging on to Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres. I would have voted for Moore at the Saturn Awards, so I'm rooting for her. Nope, Mikey Madison for Anora.
Best Actor: The Brutalist's best chances are in this category, with nine editors picking early leader Adrien Brody, while two are choosing Timothee Chalamet for A Complete Unknown. As much as I like Chalamet, it's not his time yet, so I think Brody has this in the bag. Winner: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist.
Best Supporting Actress: Speaking of having this award in the bag, every editor selected Golden Globe winner Zoe Saldana to win this award for Emilia Perez. I agree. Winner: Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez.
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin is also the editors' pick to walk off the podium for A Real Pain; every editor voted for him, too. Again, I agree. Winner: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain.

I missed Best Director, but all eleven editors chose Sean Baker for Anora, and he won.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave won the Golden Globe as well as the Critics' Choice Awards and WGA Awards, so it's a prohibitive favorite here; again, all eleven editors voted for it to win. Winner: Conclave.
Best Original Screenplay: Anora was the favorite to win the equivalent award at the Critics Choice Awards but lost it to The Substance, then won the equivalent WGA Award. It's not a prohibitive favorite; while seven editors expect it will win an Oscar, four think A Real Pain will instead. I'll pick Anora. Anora won.
Best Cinematography: Ten editors voted for The Brutalist; one apparently hasn't committed to this or most of the rest of the categories. That won't deter me from beating the drum for The Brutalist. The Brutalist won, while the one uncommitted editor picked Nosferatu, my co-favorite so far with Sinners for Best Horror Film at the next Saturn Awards.
Best Costume Design: This is one of the best chances for Wicked to win as ten editors expect it to walk off the podium with the Oscar. I agree. Wicked, my choice for Best Fantasy Film at the next Saturn Awards, won.
Best Film Editing: Nine for Conclave, one for Anora. I'm for Conclave. Nope, Anora.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance. Since this was my choice for the equivalent Saturn Award, I'm agreeing. The Substance won.
Best Production Design: Wicked should win this one, too. It did.
Best Score: Nine for Conclave, one for The Brutalist. I'll pick Conclave with reservations until I hear the main theme myself. The editors flipped at the last minute, with Nine for The Brutalist and two for Conclave. They were smart to do so, as The Brutalist won.
Best Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez has the support of nine editors, while "Like a Bird" from Sing Sing holds onto one. Like Best Score, I'm agreeing with the expert opinion with reservations. "El Mal" from Emilia Perez won.
Best Sound: Seven for Dune: Part Two, two for A Complete Unknown, and one for Wicked. The Saturn Awards don't have a sound category, but I would have voted for the sequel in Music, so I'll transfer that to Dune: Part Two. Dune: Part Two won.
Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two has an even better chance of winning this award and it was my second choice for the Saturn Awards, so, yes. Dune: Part Two won this award, too.
Best Animated Feature: Eight for Saturn Award winner The Wild Robot, two for Flow. I'm going with The Wild Robot. Surprise, Flow, which I now have penciled in for Best Animated Film at the Saturn Awards.
Best Documentary Feature: Seven for No Other Land and three for Porcelain War. No Other Land has been leading since I started looking at the odds, so why not? No Other Land won. The reaction deserves a post of its own.
Best International Film: Emilia Perez was leading, but is now behind I'm Still Here, six to four. It's one of these two, and I'm not choosing. I'm Still Here won. Now I'm wondering if either will earn a Saturn Award nomination for Best International Film, although Zoe Saldaña probably will earn a nomination and bring Emilia Pérez with her.
Best Animated Short: Eleven editors voted for this category, six for Magic Candies, four for Yuck!, and one for Beautiful Men. I'm being contrary and choosing Yuck! for the title alone. None of the above, as In the Shadow of the Cypress won instead.
Best Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra leads with six, but the rest of the field has support, with two each for Incident and I Am Ready, Warden and one editor supporting Death by Numbers. The Only Girl in the Orchestra won.
Best Live Action Short: Eight for A Lien and three for The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent. Sure, A Lien. Again, none of the above, as I’m Not a Robot took home the Oscar.

Gold Derby's editors scored 18 hits and five misses for a 78.3% success rate, and only two of those misses were complete whiffs, as at least one editor picked upsets in three categories. Not bad, so I'll keep using Gold Derby to forecast awards shows.

That's a wrap for today's Sunday entertainment feature, although I might continue the theme tomorrow for Superhero Day. Stay tuned.