Monday, May 2, 2011

We interrupt your regularly scheduled program


Ladies and Gentlemen, this is a test of the emergency blogging network.

Reuters: Dollar rises, oil slides after news of bin Laden's death
Mon May 2, 2011 3:05am EDT
SYDNEY (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded from three-year lows and U.S. crude slid more than 1 percent on Monday after news al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in a firefight with U.S. forces reduced the perception of security risks facing the United States.
"By lowering national security risks overall, this is likely to bolster equity markets and lower U.S. Treasury prices in a reverse flight to quality movement," said Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO, which oversees $1.2 trillion in assets.

"Oil markets are likely to be the most volatile given their higher sensitivity to the tug of war between lower risk overall and the possibility of isolated disturbances in some parts of the Middle East and central Asia," he said.

U.S. crude fell more than 1 percent to a session low of $112.21, retreating from a 31-month peak of $114.18 set on Friday.

The dollar index .DXY, which tracks its performance against a basket of major currencies, jumped from a three-year low of 72.813 to 73.227.
Considering that high oil prices constitute one of the major threats to the U.S. economy, and that a weak U.S. economy is the number one threat to Obama's re-election, it looks like maybe bin Ladin's death did more good than even Obama expected. Of course, it's not going to last.
Still, once the dust settles, analysts expect the recent trends including a weak U.S. dollar and higher commodity prices to resume, especially given that the U.S. Federal Reserve in no hurry to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy.

"The economic data in the U.S. is still going to be on the soft side and the market is going to keep a lid on yields and that is going to help push down the dollar," said Joseph Capurso, strategist at Commonwealth Bank.

Some were also skeptical of whether bin Laden death would reduce the security risks facing the United States.

"It doesn't change much about the energy situation and doesn't change much about the ongoing battle with radical Islamists," said Chip Hanlon, president of Delta Global Advisors in California.

"It's sort of like the news when we heard Saddam (Hussein) was caught, in the end it didn't change much fundamentally and I don't think this will either."
Ah, well, haters gonna hate.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled blogging.

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