Gold Derby's predictions for title design and music at the Emmy Awards

As I wrote yesterday, today's Sunday entertainment feature is this year's version of Gold Derby's predictions for TV movie and music at the Emmy Awards. Here are the nominees for title design and music at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards in categories with predictions at Gold Derby.

Outstanding Title Design

• Dark Matter – Ronnie Koff, Charlie Proctor, Alex Braddock, and Lexi Gunvaldson (Apple TV+)
• The Decameron – Mark Bashore, Katrina Crawford, Jason Esser, Torin Bashore, Harry Teitelman, and Mauro Gimferrer Alos (Netflix)
• House of the Dragon – Garson Yu, Mulan Leong-Suzuki, James Robertson, Damian Stricker, Dan Tegnelia, and Gregory Jones (HBO)
• The Penguin – Aaron Becker, Joseph Ahn, Michael Lo, James Robertson, Hsien Lun Su, Alasdair Willson, and Ben Hurand (HBO)
• Severance – Oliver Latta and Teddy Blanks (Apple TV+)
• The White Lotus – Katrina Crawford, Mark Bashore, Mauro Gimferrer, and Marcos Coral (HBO)

Every editor and expert along with 93.0% of users predict Severance will earn a second Emmy in this category. The rest of the nominees have weak user support with The White Lotus a distant second at 4.1%, The Penguin at 1.7%, House of the Dragon and The Decameron tied at 0.6%, and Dark Matter with none. That's enough for me to embed Severance — Opening Title Sequence: Season 2 | Apple TV+.

New season. New title sequence. Severance Season 2 — Now Streaming http://apple.co/_Severance

In Severance, Mark Scout (Adam Scott) leads a team at Lumon Industries, whose employees have undergone a severance procedure, which surgically divides their memories between their work and personal lives. This daring experiment in “work-life balance” is called into question as Mark finds himself at the center of an unraveling mystery that will force him to confront the true nature of his work… and of himself.

In season two, Mark and his friends learn the dire consequences of trifling with the severance barrier, leading them further down a path of woe.

Season 2 reunites its ensemble cast of stars including Emmy Award nominee Adam Scott, Britt Lower, Tramell Tillman, Zach Cherry, Jen Tullock, Michael Chernus, Dichen Lachman, Emmy Award winner John Turturro, Academy Award winner Christopher Walken and Academy and Emmy Award winner Patricia Arquette, and welcomes new series regular Sarah Bock.

Severance is executive produced by Ben Stiller, who also directs five episodes this season in addition to directors Uta Bresiewitz, Sam Donovan and Jessica Lee Gagné. The series is written, created and executive produced by Dan Erickson. Severance season two is also executive produced by John Lesher, Jackie Cohn, Mark Friedman, Beau Willimon, Jordan Tappis, Sam Donovan, Caroline Baron, Richard Schwartz, Nicholas Weinstock. In addition to starring, Adam Scott and Patricia Arquette serve as executive producers. Fifth Season is the studio.

Trippy, and a good introduction to the themes of the season.

Outstanding Original Main Title Theme Music

• Dept. Q – Carlos Rafael Rivera and Scott Frank (Netflix)
• Dune: Prophecy – Volker Bertelmann (HBO)
• Lazarus – Kamasi Washington (Adult Swim)
• The Residence – Mark Mothersbaugh (Netflix)
• The White Lotus – Cristobal Tapia de Veer (HBO)
• Your Friends & Neighbors – Dominic Lewis and Hamilton Leithauser (Apple TV+)

The prognosticators at Gold Derby think The White Lotus will pick up an Emmy here, as every editor and expert along with 92.9% of users predict Cristobal Tapia de Veer will pick up another statuette for another variation on the theme original enough to qualify. Dune: Prophecy and The Residence tie for second with 2.4% of users, Lazarus is in fourth with 1.2%, and Dept. Q ties Your Friends & Neighbors for last with 0.6%. Watch the likely winner, THE WHITE LOTUS SEASON 3 MAIN TITLE BY PLAINS OF YONDER.


 Never forget that all the farce and social satire of The White Lotus surrounds a crime (or several) and that what looks like paradise is full of danger.

Follow over the jump for the rest of the music nominees.

Gold Derby's predictions for guest actors and actresses at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards

Slight change of plans — instead of continuing my Emmy coverage with limited series nominations at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, as I wrote at the end of 'Arcane,' 'Love, Death + Robots,' and 'Octopus!' already Emmy Award winners, I'm resuming with a condensed version of last year's Gold Derby predicts guest actor, guest actress, reality host, and voice-over at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards concentrating on guest actor and guest actress in comedy and drama. Here are the nominees for these categories at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

• Jon Bernthal – The Bear: "Napkins" as Michael Berzatto (FX)
• Bryan Cranston – The Studio: "CinemaCon" as Griffin Mill (Apple TV+)
• Dave Franco – The Studio: "CinemaCon" as himself (Apple TV+)
• Ron Howard – The Studio: "The Note" as himself (Apple TV+)
• Anthony Mackie – The Studio: "The Note" as himself (Apple TV+)
• Martin Scorsese – The Studio: "The Promotion" as himself (Apple TV+)

Bryan Cranston leads the field according to the odds at Gold Derby, with every editor and expert along with 80.1% of users picking him to win. He's followed by Martin Scorsese, Jon Bernthal, Ron Howard, Dave Franco, and Anthony Mackie, who have the support of 11.1%, 4.6%, 2.3%, 1.4%, and 0.5% of users, respectively. The Studio having multiple nominees could have split the vote, but the prognosticators at Gold Derby think the Emmy voters have settled on the best performance of the bunch, a great actor playing a role instead of just himself.

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

• Olivia Colman – The Bear: "Forever" as Chef Andrea Terry (FX)
• Jamie Lee Curtis – The Bear: "Ice Chips" as Donna Berzatto (FX)
• Cynthia Erivo – Poker Face: "The Game Is a Foot" as the Kazinsky sisters (Peacock)
• Robby Hoffman – Hacks: "Cover Girls" as Randi (HBO Max)
• Zoë Kravitz – The Studio: "The Presentation" as herself (Apple TV+)
• Julianne Nicholson – Hacks: "A Slippery Slope" as Mary-Alice (HBO Max)

There is less of a consensus about this category than for guest actor, as Julianne Nicholson is the choice of every editor, but only two-thirds of experts and 74.4% of users. The experts and users are split on who is second, with the remaining one-third of experts and 7.9% of users picking Cynthia Erivo, while 11.5% of users expect last year's winner Jamie Lee Curtis to repeat. Zoe Kravitz, Robby Hoffman, and Olivia Colman round out the rest of the field with the support of 4.8%, 0.9%, and 0.4% of users, respectively.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

• Giancarlo Esposito – The Boys: "Beware the Jabberwock, My Son" as Stan Edgar (Prime Video)
• Scott Glenn – The White Lotus: "Killer Instincts" as Jim Hollinger (HBO)
• Shawn Hatosy – The Pitt: "9:00 PM" as Dr. Jack Abbot (HBO)
• Joe Pantoliano – The Last of Us: "The Price" as Eugene (HBO)
• Forest Whitaker – Andor: "I Have Friends Everywhere" as Saw Gerrera (Disney+)
• Jeffrey Wright – The Last of Us: "Day One" as Isaac (HBO)

Predictions by Gold Derby's prognosticators for this category follow a pattern similar to that for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. Shawn Hatosy is the choice of 80.0% of editors, 75.0% of experts, and 78.5% of users. The professionals and users are again split on the second choice, with the remaining 20% of editors and 25% of experts along with only 3.1% of users picking Scott Glenn, while 14.0% of users are voting for Jeffrey Wright. I suspect the users are responding to their perceptions of the performances, while the professionals are taking the politics of the acting community in particular into consideration. Electorates matter.

Gold Derby ranks the rest of the roster as Joe Pantoliano in fourth, Giancarlo Esposito in fifth, and Forest Whitaker last with 2.2%, 1.8%, and 0.4% of users choosing them, respectively. Too bad, as Whitaker is the only acting nominee from Andor. Being an Oscar-winning actor reprising a movie role may have helped him earn a nomination, but it's not going to help him win. Darn. Maybe at the Saturn Awards.

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

• Jane Alexander – Severance: "Sweet Vitriol" as Sissy Cobel (Apple TV+)
• Gwendoline Christie – Severance: "Cold Harbor" as Lorne (Apple TV+)
• Kaitlyn Dever – The Last of Us: "Through the Valley" as Abby (HBO)
• Cherry Jones – The Handmaid's Tale: "Exile" as Holly (Hulu)
• Catherine O’Hara – The Last of Us: "Future Days" as Gail (HBO)
• Merritt Wever – Severance: "Who Is Alive?" as Gretchen George (Apple TV+)

Speaking of the Saturn Awards, every one of these actresses is in a show that has been nominated by the Academy of Science Fiction, Fantasy & Horror Films, so all of them could be nominated for Best Guest Star in a Television Series except perhaps Cherry Jones. No actress from The Handmaid's Tale has ever earned a nomination at the Saturn Awards, a snub I've whined about before. I don't expect that will change. Not only do electorates matter, so do selection committees.

Enough speculation. Now for the odds. This is the third consecutive category where there is a top choice, followed by divided support for the next two. Three-quarters of both editors and experts along with 78.2% of users have lined up behind Kaitlyn Dever, while the remaining one-quarter of editors and experts along with 7.3% of users have chosen Merritt Wever and 10.5% of users have picked Catherine O'Hara. The remaining three nominees are well behind, with Gwendoline Christie having the votes of 2.3% of users, Jane Alexander with 1.4%, and Cherry Jones 0.5%. Maybe a snub of Jones at the Saturn Awards would be justified.

That's a wrap for today's installment. I'm planning this year's version of Gold Derby's predictions for TV movie and music at the Emmy Awards for tomorrow's Sunday entertainment feature. Stay tuned.

Previous posts about the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards

• No PSAs among nominees for Outstanding Commercial plus winners for Outstanding Promotional Announcement at the Emmy Awards
• 'I Am: Celine Dion,' 'Patrice: The Movie,' and 'The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,' Emmy nominees for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking
• 'Asia' and 'The Americas' lead nature documentaries at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Pee-wee as Himself' vs. 'Will & Harper' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special on Tequila Day
• '100 Foot Wave' leads Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series in nominations, but could lose to 'SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night'
• 'The Daily Show Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: MAGA: The Next Generation' plus the Emmy nominees for Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
• Emmy nominee 'Desi Lydic Foxsplains the Epstein Files' plus the rest of the short form nominees at the Emmy Awards
• John Oliver examines 'Gang Databases' plus 'Last Week Tonight's six Emmy nominations
• Colbert, Lydic, and Meyers take closer looks at the EPA and Epstein and Kimmel goes down the rabbit hole on 'windmills'
• 'Jeopardy!' favored to win Game Show categories at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Welcome to Wrexham' vs. 'Love on the Spectrum' for Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• 'Shark Tank' vs. 'Queer Eye' for Outstanding Structured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win again
• 'Arcane' leads Gold Derby odds to win Outstanding Animated Program at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Rebel Ridge' leads Gold Derby odds to win Outstanding Television Movie at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• Nate Bargatze vs. Conan O'Brien for Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) at the Emmys
• 'Saturday Night Live' earned seven Emmy nominations for its 50th season
• 'SNL50: The Anniversary Special' leads nominees for Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmys
• 'Arcane,' 'Love, Death + Robots,' and 'Octopus!' already Emmy Award winners

Weather Network and Weather Channel observe the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina

I told my readers twice to "stay tuned for the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina." I begin with The Weather Network's Hurricane Katrina: A Storm Like No Other.

Two decades ago, Hurricane Katrina became one of the most devastating and defining storms in modern history. Now, 20 years on, we’re bringing together weather experts and meteorologists who were on the ground during the disaster to share untold stories, lessons learned, and how Katrina reshaped the way we understand extreme weather.

Those images and stories are still stunning, 20 years later.

I'm closing with The Weather Channel's FEATURES: 20 Years After Katrina - Resilience And Recovery.

In the 20 years since Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast, New Orleans has rebuilt and redefined itself through relentless efforts to restore homes and revive traditions. Two decades on, those who lived through the tragedy remember lessons learned and rejoice in the unity and resilience that helped shape the future of the Crescent City.

I'm glad to see stories of recovery.

I could post lots more, but this has been a draining day in real life, so I'll stop here. Stay tuned for a resumption of my Emmy Awards coverage tomorrow.

Company Man asks 'The Decline of Claire's...What Happened?' A tale of the Retail Apocalypse

I had a scientific video planned for today's evergreen educational post, but that was before I saw Company Man asking The Decline of Claire's...What Happened?

The iconic mall-based retailer has filed for bankruptcy. This video explores the history of Claire's while outlining what I believe to be five of the biggest reasons behind its decline.

I anticipated this video in CNBC asks 'Can Claire's Survive Its Second Bankruptcy?' A tale of the Retail Apocalypse and tariffs.

Competition with Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop and tariffs - the first formed a major reason behind Forever 21 filing for bankruptcy and closing all U.S. stores while the second contributed to Joann and At Home filing for bankruptcy. They may have been the first chains that blamed those factors, but they won't be the last. Of course, private equity played a part in the story, but CNBC didn't identify them as the cause of the debt Claire's couldn't pay. I may have to wait until Company Man or Bright Sun Films cover the chain to confirm that.

Here is Company Man Mike's list.


Number one, leveraged buyout. That's a tactic private equity uses, so good enough for me. That written, private equity looks to be the savior of the chain, at least for now.

Company Man rolled tariffs into economic factors, along with the Great Recession and the pandemic. Those were on top of declining mall traffic (and fewer malls) and competition with Shein and Temu but also Lovisa and Five Below, two chains I haven't mentioned here before. At least Amazon wasn't blamed!

Company Man added one thing that I didn't already know or suspect, brand perception. That was an issue for different reasons with Hooters, so I shouldn't be surprised.

That's a wrap for the Retail Apocalypse today. I might return to Claire's should Bright Sun Films produce a video. In the meantime, stay tuned for the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

PBS Terra and Howtown lick fossils, demonstrating Ig Nobel Prize winning science

I'm not feeling up to resuming my Emmy Awards coverage today — the first day of classes for the Fall Semester left me tired and with the first papers to grade — so I'm revisiting one of the winners of the 2023 IgNobel Prizes for April Fools Day, a holiday special instead.

Two of the prizes connect to stories I tell my students, geologists, particularly paleontologists, licking rocks and spiders moving their limbs by hydraulic action. Science Friday went into more detail on both in Saluting Science’s Silly Side, Virtually (click to listen).

This year’s awards included prizes for explaining why many scientists like to lick rocks, for re-animating dead spiders to use as mechanical gripping tools, and for using cadavers to explore whether there is an equal number of hairs in each of a person’s two nostrils.

I'm a paleontologist, so I know what geologists do in the field, including tasting rocks for composition and chewing on them for texture. I tell my students about the chew test for siltstone versus shale, but I also tell them not to do it to their specimens; the rocks are already identified. Besides, they can tell by rubbing them.

Last month, PBS Terra and Howtown uploaded two videos demonstrating this field technique, so I'm sharing both, beginning with This Bizarre Fossil Reveals SO Much About Dinosaurs.

Would you lick a 65-million-year old dinosaur poop? Granted, it’s not a question many people ask themselves - but for George Frandsen it’s a firm, “Yes!”. Not merely a dinosaur fossil hunter, George is specifically on the hunt for coprolites, the more scientific term for ancient dino dung. Already the proud owner of the world’s largest collection of dinosaur poo fossils, we join him on his quest to discover more of these rare fossils. Far from being just an amusing curiosity, coprolites can unveil a surprising amount of clues into the lives and diets of dinosaurs. As for the licking part, well that’s maybe best left for George to explain.

Seeing this reminds me that I haven't used the eating bugs label since 2023 and not written a post focusing on the topic since 2019. I may or may not return to the topic, but if I don't, I have a new subject that can gross out my students and readers.

PBS Eons has a related video, but first here's Joss Fong of Howtown licking a fossil bone for science in Tastes like deep time...

[F]or anyone wondering, it was an Oreodont fossil from South Dakota, part of a jaw.

This is the one I might show my students; it's short and not as gross, although it has less information than the PBS Terra video.

I close with the related video from PBS Eons, When Dinosaurs Threw Up A Mystery.

While dino bones from the Late Triassic Period are few and far between, the other clues they left behind can reveal how this epic saga played out to those with the stomach to decipher them.

Because, it turns out, the story of the rise of the dinosaurs is a tale written in puke and poop.

No licking, but lots of gross and punny science. I approve.

I have another science video picked out for tomorrow, followed by the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina on Friday. Stay tuned.

Randy Rainbow sings 'He Just Can't Wait to Be King!'

I know I wrote, "I plan on posting something brief, evergreen, and educational" today. That was before I saw Randy Rainbow singing He Just Can't Wait to Be King! At least it's brief and evergreen and I suppose his pitching Ground News is educational. If not, at least it's entertaining!

Parody of “I Just Can’t Wait to Be King” (Music by Elton John, Lyrics by Tim Rice)

Parody Lyrics by Randy Rainbow
Song Produced, Orchestrated, Mixed, Mastered by: Michael J Moritz Jr @michaeljmoritz

"Lyin' King. *Snork* I guess listing three Emmy nominations for The Lion King at the Hollywood Bowl in 'SNL50: The Anniversary Special' leads nominees for Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmys was a sign.

Instead of the Marsh Family, I'm embedding "Don't You Mess With Sesame Street" by Lauren Mayer Comedy Songs for an encore.

Defunding the Corporation for Public Broadcasting is a lousy thing to do; Elmo and Big Bird are too nice to complain about it, but I'm not! (From an idea by, and featuring, Joyce Jacobson; fair use parody of "Sesame Street" theme by Joe Raposo)

I agree, defunding the Corporation for Public Broadcasting is a lousy thing to do. I can't exactly blame The Big Brutal Bill but the next worst thing, a rescissions bill clawing back foreign aid, NPR and PBS funding. May this act not end well for the Republicans in Congress.

That's a wrap for today. Stay tuned to see if I resume my Emmy Awards coverage tomorrow.

'Arcane,' 'Love, Death + Robots,' and 'Octopus!' already Emmy Award winners

I closed 'SNL50: The Anniversary Special' leads nominees for Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmys by telling my readers "I think I will look at the other categories where juries have already declared winners at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards next." They're all in animation and motion design, which gives me an opportunity to re-examine Outstanding Animated Program and Outstanding Narrator. First, the winners at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards with assistance from Animation Magazine.


Love, Death + Robots may not be favored to win Outstanding Animated Program, but it already has four Emmy Awards, two each for two episodes. "400 Boys" won two Emmys, Daryl Graham for Character Animation and Robert Valley for Character Design. "How Zeke Got Religion" also won two Emmys, Gigi Cavenago for Production Design and Edgar Martins for Storyboard. Congratulations!


Arcane is likely to win Outstanding Animated Program and already has two Emmy Awards. Bruno Couchinho won Background Design for "The Dirt Under Your Nails" and Faustine Dumontier won Color for "The Message Hidden within the Pattern." Congratulations!


Octopus! is unlikely to win Outstanding Narrator, but Minkyung Chung, Michaela Olsen, Hayley Morris, Julie Gratz, Anthony Galante, and Sabrina Chaney won Outstanding Motion Design for the documentary. Congratulations!

Follow over the jump for updated Gold Derby odds in animation, voiceover, and narration.

'SNL50: The Anniversary Special' leads nominees for Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmys

I decided to resume my Emmy Awards series for today's Sunday entertainment feature with the nominees for Outstanding Variety Special (Live) and the other nominations. I begin with the program category at the Primetime Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

• The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar (Fox)
• Beyoncé Bowl (Netflix)
• The Oscars (ABC)
• SNL50: The Anniversary Special (NBC)
• SNL50: The Homecoming Concert (Peacock)

SNL50: The Anniversary Special leads with 13 nominations, followed by its companion special SNL50: The Homecoming Concert and last year's winner The Oscars tied at six, then The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar and Beyoncé Bowl tied at four. The prognosticators at Gold Derby agree that SNL50: The Anniversary Special has the lead, as 93.3% of experts, 83.3% of editors, and 89.8% of users have picked it to win. The 6.7% of users along with the same percentage of experts are enough to push Beyoncé Bowl into second, while 1.8% of users is holding The Oscars down despite 16.7% of editors expecting the movie awards ceremony to repeat. I'd go with the editors myself. The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar and SNL50: The Homecoming Concert trail with 1.0% and 0.6% respectively.

Follow over the jump for the rest of the nominations for SNL50: The Anniversary Special, SNL50: The Homecoming Concert, and their competitors at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

PBS Terra examines 'Invasion of the Toxic Toads: Nature's Most Successful Failure'

I acknowledged an omission to correct in the penultimate paragraph of 'I Visited a Mosquito Factory' from 'Human Footprint' on PBS for World Mosquito Day.

I've never mentioned cane toads on this blog before, but they're one of the organisms my students use for their answers to a question on the final exam for my organismal biology class. Since I just graded those exams yesterday, cane toads are fresh on my mind. That's a story my students tell me.

I then watched Danny Anduza on Twitch react to part of a PBS Terra video about cane toads, Invasion of the Toxic Toads: Nature's Most Successful Failure, so I decided to embed it here. Watch.

They prefer suburban living, they’ll eat anything in sight (including each other), and…they’re taking over the world?

This Earth Month, say hello to the Cane Toad: the epitome of failing upward. Wishfully introduced as a solution to a problem, cane toads have become the problem themselves. They’ve established themselves as an extremely successful invasive species… by doing nothing? Join the Fascinating Fails team as we look into how Cane Toads keep taking over ecosystems and what an ‘invasive species’ means in the era of climate change. Plus, find out ways YOU can help fight the climate crisis—it’s as simple as taking a picture!

Florida, the new home of Burmese Pythons, Lionfish, and Giant African Snails, now has Cane Toads, too. I wish I could say I'm surprised. I also wish I could be more surprised that they are spreading north through the Sunshine State because of climate change, but I've known that Burmese Pythons could spread that far north (they already have) and have been projected to be able to inhabit areas as far north as southern Maryland, so I'm not.

PBS Terra has more in Invasive reptiles & amphibians are taking over...where!?!?

Did you know that Florida is home to 180 species of non-native reptiles and amphibians—and that’s JUST reptiles and amphibians! Luckily, there are a few ways to get things under control. Fascinating Fails host Maren Hunsberger tells us how!

Yikes! Florida has a worse problem with invasive species than I thought and I already knew it was bad!

I conclude with The Frog Tier List - Rapid Fire Edition, where TierZoo ranks frogs and toads.

WHICH FROG RANKS HIGHEST?

Spoiler alert, it's the Cane Toad.

Thanks to my students, Danny A. on Twitch, and PBS Terra for reminding me about Cane Toads. I learned a lot of new things today, which makes today a good day. Now stay tuned for the Sunday entertainment feature. Maybe I'll finally continue my Emmy Awards series!

Howtown asks 'Where does science funding go?'

I am not feeling like writing about the Emmy Award nominees today, so I'm sharing Howtown asking Where does science funding go?


The opening breakdown reminds me of Paul Krugman's observation that "loosely speaking, the post-cold-war federal government is a big pension fund that also happens to have an army." As The Economist's View documented, this later turned into "the US government is 'an insurance company with an army.'" If Adam Cole and Joss Fong had included Medicare and Medicaid in this video, that would have been even more apparent. That's not really their point. That science research spending more than pays for itself, with $1.50 in spending generating $3.15 in economic output and lifting GDP by 4%, but is being cut, is.

The Big Brutal Bill cuts overall science spending by 25% and the National Science Foundation by 57%. The prediction is that it would cause GDP to fall by 3.81%, more than during the Great Recession. That Project 2025 would do this doesn't surprise me; its authors understand power, not economics, and science threatens their power. Meanwhile, the rest of us will suffer.

I'm wrapping up on this depressing note. Stay tuned to see if I continue my Emmy Awards coverage tomorrow.

'Saturday Night Live' earned seven Emmy nominations for its 50th season

I begin with two categories I covered in John Oliver examines 'Gang Databases' plus 'Last Week Tonight's six Emmy nominations.

Outstanding Scripted Variety Series

• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Saturday Night Live proper has seven Emmy nominations, 24 including the 50th anniversary specials and spin-offs, while Last Week Tonight with John Oliver has six. That's not a good handicap for this category or the next, as the prognosticators at Gold Derby think Last Week Tonight with John Oliver will win handily, just like last year. All the experts, two-thirds of the editors, and 84.3% of the users expect John Oliver and his producers will accept the trophy in September. One-third of the editors and 15.7% of the users are calling for SNL to win in an upset. I'm with the majority. Besides, SNL will win its Emmys for its 50th Anniversary specials.

There has been some movement since last month, with 92.9% of experts, 75% of the editors, and 89.4% of users behind Last Week Tonight with John Oliver while 7.1% of experts, 25% of the editors, and 10.6% of the using picking Saturday Night Live to upset. In general, there is more support for Last Week Tonight with John Oliver now than before.

Before I move on to the next category, I'm sharing Best of Saturday Night Live Season 50.

Check out highlights and behind the scenes from Season 50 of Saturday Night Live, including moments from sketches like Domingo: Bridesmaid Speech, CouplaBeers and more!

HAHAHAHAHA!

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series

• The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC)

The Gold Derby odds also overwhelmingly favor Last Week Tonight with John Oliver to repeat here, too, as 91.7% of experts, 88.9% of editors, and 85.2% of users picked it to win again. The Daily Show sits in second with 8.3% of experts, 11.1% of editors, and 7.5% of users think it will upset. Only 7.3% of users think SNL has a chance. This ranking looks right to me.

Saturday Night Live's odds have improved enough to swap places with The Daily Show, but not nearly enough to pass Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, which has the support of 92.3% of experts, all of the editors, and 91.1% of users. The consensus around its victory is solidifying. SNL is now the choice of 7.7% of experts and 5.2% of users and sits in second ahead of The Daily Show, which has only 3.7% of users still thinking it can win.

Now for a category recognized at the Primetime Emmy Awards that I haven't examined before.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Ike Barinholtz – The Studio as Sal Saperstein (Apple TV+)
• Colman Domingo – The Four Seasons as Danny (Netflix)
• Harrison Ford – Shrinking as Dr. Paul Rhoades (Apple TV+)
• Jeff Hiller – Somebody Somewhere as Joel (HBO)
• Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear as Richard "Richie" Jerimovich (FX)
• Michael Urie – Shrinking as Brian (Apple TV+)
• Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live as various characters (NBC)

Bowen Yang is the only acting nominee from SNL, but he's merely in the middle of the pack according to the odds-makers at Gold Derby. Ike Barinholtz from The Studio leads with 38.5% of the experts and 57.6% of the users, but no editors. I'm not convinced. I'm more confident in the second place nominee, Harrison Ford from Shrinking, who is the choice of 53.8% of experts, all editors, and 32.9% of users. The rest of the experts, 7.7%, and 3.1% of users think defending winner Ebon Moss-Bachrach from The Bear will repeat, which would be my default position in the absence of the odds. Yang is in fourth with 2.7% of users, followed by Colman Domingo from The Four Seasons at 1.7%, Jeff Hiller from Somebody Somewhere at 1.4%, and Michael Urie, the other nominee from Shrinking, in last at 0.6%. I will re-examine these odds when I look at the comedy series nominees next month. I expect the order of the top three to change by then.

Follow over the jump for the rest of the nominations for SNL at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

'I Visited a Mosquito Factory' from 'Human Footprint' on PBS for World Mosquito Day

Happy World Mosquito Day! For this year's celebration, I'm sharing I Visited a Mosquito Factory from Human Footprint on PBS Terra.

Could mosquitoes be the key to fighting deadly diseases?

In Medellín, Colombia, a mosquito factory breeds millions of mosquitoes every week… on purpose. Why? To stop the spread of dengue, a mosquito-borne disease infecting millions of people each year.

At the World Mosquito Program, scientists infect Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with a naturally occurring bacterium called Wolbachia, which blocks their ability to transmit viruses like dengue, Zika, yellow fever, and chikungunya. Once released, these mosquitoes breed with wild populations and spread Wolbachia, reducing disease transmission between humans.

But not everyone is convinced. Wolbachia doesn’t work the same way in every context. The effects vary by mosquito species, environment, and virus. So –while promising– this approach isn’t without its own risks. Can biocontrol outsmart one of the deadliest animals on Earth, or are we venturing into ecological territory we don’t fully understand?

The mosquito factory should look familiar to long-time readers, as the third video in Using biotechnology to eliminate and control mosquitoes for an early celebration of World Mosquito Day explained it. I'm recycling my reaction from three years ago: "Using one parasite that doesn't affect humans to reduce the ability of an insect to spread a parasite harmful to humans — clever! It's also not forever in the same way genetic modification is. Fine by me."

As for Jason Rasgon's doubts and criticisms, I'm filing them under two of Commoner's Laws, "Everything is connected to everything else" and "There is no free lunch." Compared to genetically engineering the mosquitos, I think infecting them with Wolbachia is an example of a third law, "Nature knows best."

By the way, I've never mentioned cane toads on this blog before, but they're one of the organisms my students use for their answers to a question on the final exam for my organismal biology class. Since I just graded those exams yesterday, cane toads are fresh on my mind. That's a story my students tell me.

That's a wrap for today's biodiversity holiday. Stay tuned to see if I resume my Emmy Awards coverage tomorrow.

Ray 'CityNerd' Delahanty explains how 'Dunning-Kruger Is a Scourge On Our Roads,' a driving update

As I promised yesterday, today's educational entry is a CityNerd video about drivers and a driving update, since Pearl passed 70,000 miles yesterday. Watch as Ray 'CityNerd' Delahanty explains how Dunning-Kruger Is a Scourge On Our Roads.

I've often heard that EVERYONE thinks they're an above average driver. Well, I wanted to look at data to see if it's actually true, share research on how the Dunning-Kruger effect impacts driving, and look at wider consequences on our transportation system.

I've been blogging for 15 years and I've never mentioned the Dunning-Kruger effect until now? I'm amazed. I've had so many opportunities to apply it, especially during two administrations of "only the best people." *Snort*

That written, I'm not surprised at either people's inflated self-assessments of their driving skills or how poor they really are. I wish I weren't surprised that the people who did the worst actually upgraded their self-assessments after doing poorly. I guess they thought they did better than they expected. And I have to share the road with them? Ugh.

That's the general driving situation. Follow over the jump for my personal driving update.

'Weathered' on PBS Terra asks 'When Will The World Run Out of Water?'

Today's educational entry features Weathered on PBS Terra asking When Will The World Run Out of Water?

For generations, we’ve been pumping water out of the ground assuming it would last forever. But, it’s running out. And a new study shows how global “peak water” could be just around the corner. In this episode, we’ll find out WHEN and WHERE peak water is expected to hit.

The story Maiya May tells about "peak water" should look familiar to long-time readers of this blog. It looks very much like the story of Peak Oil, the subject of The End of Suburbia. I haven't written about the movie since CNBC explains the problems of suburbia and their possible solutions in 2022 and about Peak Oil outside of the movie since Supply and demand still work for oil in 2016. That's because I replaced The End of Suburbia with Treasures of the Earth: Power, which doesn't talk about Peak Oil at all. Instead, it focuses on climate change and plastic pollution. My students understand those issues better than Peak Oil.

Groundwater depletion is only one of the effects May describes and I list as a result of over-pumping groundwater. So are subsidence, saltwater contamination, contamination from other surface sources, and decreased recharge of surface water from groundwater, which results in loss of riparian (streamside) vegetation, among other undesirable things. That makes this video one of the stories I tell my students. It also means that, if I show it to them, this entry becomes another instance of blogging as professional development.

I close by noting that I had heard that Indonesia was building a new capital city, but I didn't know why until I watched this video — subsidence exacerbated by sea level rise. That means I learned something new, and it's always a good day when that happens.

That's a wrap for today's post. Stay tuned for tomorrow's educational entry, which will be a CityNerd video about drivers and a driving update, since Pearl will pass 70,000 miles today.

'Star Trek: Lower Decks' and 'Dune: Part Two' win Hugo Awards

Today's Sunday entertainment feature compares my predictions for dramatic presentation and game at the Hugo Awards to the actual winners.


Just like the Critics Choice Super Awards, where I predicted Dune: Part Two would win and it did, I wrote "the fans will vote for Dune: Part Two." They did and it won. Congratulations!

I completely blew the next two categories.

While Doctor Who “Dot and Bubble” and all of Star Trek: Lower Decks Season 5 earned nominations at the Nebula Awards, since both franchises have two nominees, they might suffer from vote splitting. If so, it will open the door for either Agatha All Along or Fallout, winners of Best Superhero Television Series and Best Science Fiction Television Series at the Saturn Awards, respectively, to walk through and claim the rocket trophy. If so, I think it will be Fallout. If not, then I predict it will be the Doctor Who episode, “Dot and Bubble.”

Nope, the fans not only rallied around Star Trek: Lower Decks, they picked a favorite episode. Star Trek: Lower Decks: "The New Next Generation" may not win an Emmy Award — I still expect it will be Love, Death & Robots or Arcane, both of which have won juried Emmy Awards already — but it won a Hugo Award. This is another case where I'm glad to be wrong.


 I blew the next category by completely missing it. Comics Beat reported "Ryan North and Chris Fenoglio‘s choose-your-own-adventure book Lower Decks: Warp Your Own Way won Best Graphic Story or Comic" in STAR TREK: LOWER DECKS bows out with two Hugo Awards. Congratulations!

I also blew game or interactive work.

1000xRESIST was the only game nominated at the Hugo Awards also nominated at the Nebula Awards, but I don't think that will sway the fans because they probably weren't playing it. Instead, they'll vote for a game they actually played. Based on watching streamers on Twitch, I think the most played games in this field were Dragon Age: The Veilguard and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom. Between those two, I'd vote for Dragon Age: The Veilguard, as popular and fun as the Zelda games are.

I was right that 1000xRESIST wouldn't win, but neither of my choices won. I may be following the wrong Twitch streamers, but I don't recall any of them playing Caves of Qud, which won. Surprise and congratulations!

I stated my preferences for one last category.

I'm making an observation on Best Related Work before I conclude this entry. I suspect r/Fantasy’s 2024 Bingo Reading Challenge will win, but I'm rooting for “The Spectacular Failure of the Star Wars Hotel” by Jenny Nicholson. It's her second Hugo nomination, and it examines an experiment that apparently succeeded critically but definitely failed commercially. Since Disney is in business to make money, it closed.

Neither won. Instead, Speculative Whiteness: Science Fiction and the Alt-Right by Jordan S. Carroll did. I'm not surprised. The Hugo Awards successfully fought off the Rabid Puppies, but they have infected the rest of society. File that under winning the battle, but (so far) losing the war. Sigh.

That's a wrap for today's post. I already have educational entries planned for Monday and Tuesday, followed by World Mosquito Day on Wednesday. Stay tuned.

'Human Footprint' on PBS Terra reports 'This Bee Is Worth Millions (And You've Never Heard Of It)' for World Honey Bee Day

Happy World Honey Bee Day! I begin today's celebration of a biodiversity holiday with an excerpt from Human Footprint on PBS Terra, This Bee Is Worth Millions (And You've Never Heard Of It).

There's a strange bee called the alkali bee. And in one small valley in Washington, it's worth its weight in gold.

In Walla Walla Valley, farmers depend on alkali bees, a native species essential to one of the country’s most overlooked crops: alfalfa seed. In fact, the work of these tiny pollinators generates millions of dollars in agricultural revenue. Unlike honey bees, alkali bees take a pollen-packed smack to the face without hesitation, powering through millions of flowers with speed and precision. But alkali bees can’t be boxed, transported, or bought. They nest in the ground, require salt-crusted soil, precise irrigation, and near-perfect conditions to thrive.

In this episode of Human Footprint, Shane Campbell-Staton visits the only place on Earth where solitary, ground-nesting bees are managed for large-scale agriculture. He meets third-generation farmer Mark Wagoner and entomologist Doug Walsh, who’ve each played a role in transforming this agricultural landscape into a living partnership with native pollinators.

Shane uncovers the extraordinary steps to keep these bees alive: building salt-encrusted bee beds, spraying pesticides late at night, and even rerouting a state highway. But supporting alkali bees is more than just innovative farming, it’s a glimpse into what it might take to protect WILD pollinators in a world built for honey bees.

This video ties into Vox explains 'What we get wrong about saving the bees' for World Honey Bee Day. According to the video description, "There are 20,000 other species of bees in the world — over 4,000 in the United States. They’re incredibly diverse, unique, and also important for pollination." Alkali bees fit that description perfectly. They also serve as an example of one of Commoner's Laws, "Nature knows best." That's a law I would like to cite more often.

Today is still about honey bees, and I have a video about them that I mentioned in 'Apollo 13: Survival' leads nominees for Outstanding Science and Technology Documentary at the News & Doc Emmy Awards for Wayback Wednesday: "National Geographic has another clip from [Photographer] about honeybees that I might use for World Bee Day or World Honey Bee Day." As promised, I'm sharing Anand Varma Captures a Honey Bee Story | Photographer | National Geographic.

Anand Varma shakes things up in his photography by studying the life of a honey bee and creating a story that most humans have never seen before!

I'm a zoologist and I've never seen honey bee metamorphosis before, so I'm sure most humans haven't seen it, either. File this under "It's a good day when I learn something new."

This episode of Photographer was nominated for Outstanding Science and Technology Documentary at the News & Doc Emmy Awards, but didn't win, although another episode won Outstanding Nature Documentary. Follow over the jump for the winner of Outstanding Science and Technology Documentary.

Nate Bargatze vs. Conan O'Brien for Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) at the Emmys

As I telegraphed yesterday, I'm continuing my Emmy nominations series with the nominees for Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded).

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

• Adam Sandler: Love You (Netflix)
• Ali Wong: Single Lady (Netflix)
• Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years (Hulu)
• Conan O'Brien: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor (Netflix)
• Sarah Silverman: PostMortem (Netflix)
• Your Friend, Nate Bargatze (Netflix)

Your Friend, Nate Bargatze leads with three nominations, followed by Ali Wong: Single Lady, Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years, Conan O'Brien: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor, and Sarah Silverman: PostMortem at two each, then Adam Sandler: Love You with only this one. Gold Derby's odds give a different order, with every editor and expert along with 81.1% of users choosing Conan O'Brien: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor to win. Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner Ali Wong: Single Lady sits in second with the support of 12.9% of users, followed by Adam Sandler: Love You at 2.7%, Your Friend, Nate Bargatze at 1.5%, Sarah Silverman: PostMortem at 1.1%, and Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years at 0.8%. Based on these odds, whoever wins, Netflix will, too.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

• Conan O'Brien: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor – Jon Macks, Chris Convy, Lauren Greenberg, Skyler Higley, Ian Karmel and Sean O'Connor (Netflix)
• Cunk on Life – Charlie Brooker, Ben Caudell, Erika Ehler, Charlie George, Eli Goldstone, Jason Hazeley, Lucia Keskin, Diane Morgan, Joel Morris and Michael Odewale (Netflix)
• Sarah Silverman: PostMortem – Sarah Silverman (Netflix)
• SNL50: The Anniversary Special – James Anderson, Dan Bulla, Megan Callahan-Shah, Michael Che, Mikey Day, Mike DiCenzo, James Downey, Tina Fey, Jimmy Fowlie, Alison Gates, Sudi Green, Jack Handey, Steve Higgins, Colin Jost, Erik Kenward, Dennis McNicholas, Seth Meyers, Lorne Michaels, John Mulaney, Jake Nordwind, Ceara O'Sullivan, Josh Patten, Paula Pell, Simon Rich, Pete Schultz, Streeter Seidell, Emily Spivey, Kent Sublette, Bryan Tucker and Auguste White (NBC)
• Your Friend, Nate Bargatze – Nate Bargatze (Netflix)

SNL50: The Anniversary Special would definitely win a game of "one of these things is not like the others" in this field, as it's the only live variety special and non-Netflix show nominated. The prognosticators at Gold Derby think it will win the award, too, as 83.3% of experts, 75% of editors, and 84.1% of users have picked it. Conan O'Brien: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor sits in second with the support of 16.7% of experts, 25% of editors, and 6.0% of users, followed by Cunk on Life with 5.6% of users, Your Friend, Nate Bargatze with 2.8%, and Sarah Silverman: PostMortem with 1.6%. Note that the writing teams rank higher than the solo writer-performers. Also, Silverman may be last, but she's featured because she's the one nominee running a campaign whose image I haven't already used mentioning this category. Consider it a consolation prize.

Outstanding Picture Editing for Variety Programming

• Ali Wong: Single Lady – Sean Hubbert (Netflix)
• Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years – Kelly Lyon (Hulu)
• Conan O'Brien: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor – Bill DeRonde and Timothy Schultz (Netflix)
• Cunk on Life – Damon Tai and Jason Boxall (Netflix)
• Your Friend, Nate Bargatze – Sean Hubbert (Netflix)

On the other hand, I'm featuring Ali Wong because her special was the only one nominated by the American Cinema Editors, so it's my pick to win.

That's a wrap for today's installment and also a wrap for all the program categories at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards except Emerging Media. I might cover those when I blog about live variety specials. That won't be until next week. In the meantime, stay tuned for World Honey Bee Day tomorrow, the Hugo Award winners for the Sunday entertainment feature, something educational on Monday and maybe Tuesday, and World Mosquito Day on Wednesday. I have my blogging cut out for me.

Previous posts about the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards

• No PSAs among nominees for Outstanding Commercial plus winners for Outstanding Promotional Announcement at the Emmy Awards
• 'I Am: Celine Dion,' 'Patrice: The Movie,' and 'The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,' Emmy nominees for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking
• 'Asia' and 'The Americas' lead nature documentaries at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Pee-wee as Himself' vs. 'Will & Harper' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special on Tequila Day
• '100 Foot Wave' leads Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series in nominations, but could lose to 'SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night'
• 'The Daily Show Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: MAGA: The Next Generation' plus the Emmy nominees for Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
• Emmy nominee 'Desi Lydic Foxsplains the Epstein Files' plus the rest of the short form nominees at the Emmy Awards
• John Oliver examines 'Gang Databases' plus 'Last Week Tonight's six Emmy nominations
• Colbert, Lydic, and Meyers take closer looks at the EPA and Epstein and Kimmel goes down the rabbit hole on 'windmills'
• 'Jeopardy!' favored to win Game Show categories at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Welcome to Wrexham' vs. 'Love on the Spectrum' for Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• 'Shark Tank' vs. 'Queer Eye' for Outstanding Structured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win again
• 'Arcane' leads Gold Derby odds to win Outstanding Animated Program at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Rebel Ridge' leads Gold Derby odds to win Outstanding Television Movie at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards

'Rebel Ridge' leads Gold Derby odds to win Outstanding Television Movie at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards

I'm resuming my Emmy nominations coverage with the nominations for television movies at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Television Movie

• Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock)
• The Gorge (Apple TV+)
• Mountainhead (HBO)
• Nonnas (Netflix)
• Rebel Ridge (Netflix)

The Gorge is the only television movie with a second nomination, but it's in last place in Gold Derby's odds. Every expert and editor along with 85.6% of users prefer Rebel Ridge. The remaining users are split among Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy with 8.6%, Mountainhead with 2.2%, and Nonnas and The Gorge tied at 1.8% each. The Gorge probably has a better chance of winning an Emmy in the next category.

Outstanding Sound Editing for a Limited or Anthology Series, Movie or Special

• Adolescence: "Episode 1" – James Drake, Michele Woods, Emma Butt, Rob Davidson, Jessica Watkins, Oli Ferris, and Sue Harding (Netflix)
• Black Mirror: "USS Callister: Into Infinity" – Tom Jenkins, Alex Sawyer, James Hayday, Rob Davidson, Arthur Graley, Poppy Kavanagh, Oliver Ferris, and Sue Harding (Netflix)
• The Gorge – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Paul Hackner, Darren Maynard, David Farmer, Frederic Dubois, David V. Butler, Stephanie Brown, Jonathan Greasley, Jason W. Jennings, Nolan McNaughton, and Sally Boldt (Apple TV+)
• The Penguin: "After Hours" – Rich Bologna, Larry Zipf, Michael McMenomy, Angela Organ, Tony Martinez, Wyatt Sprague, Diego Perez, Matt Haasch, Ben Holiday, Luke Dennis, and Gareth Rhys Jones (HBO)
• Star Trek: Section 31 – Matthew E. Taylor, Michael Schapiro, Austin Olivia Kendrick, Sebastian Sheehan Visconti, Sean Heissinger, Andrew Twite, Alex Pugh, Kip Smedley, Deron Street, Clay Weber, Moira Marquis, Alyson Moore, and Katie Rose (Paramount+)

In addition to this being the second nomination for The Gorge, it's also the only nomination for Star Trek: Section 31, which means I plan on recycling this category in this year's edition of Star Trek vs. Star Wars - futuristic politics and government at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Star Trek vs. Star Wars at the 2024 Emmy Awards for Star Trek Day. That written, I think the fake Star Trek of Black Mirror's "USS Callister: Into Infinity" is most likely to win because the original "USS Callister" won this award in 2018.

That's a wrap for today's post. Stay tuned to see if I continue this series tomorrow, likely with the nominees for Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded).

Previous posts about the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards

• No PSAs among nominees for Outstanding Commercial plus winners for Outstanding Promotional Announcement at the Emmy Awards
• 'I Am: Celine Dion,' 'Patrice: The Movie,' and 'The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,' Emmy nominees for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking
• 'Asia' and 'The Americas' lead nature documentaries at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Pee-wee as Himself' vs. 'Will & Harper' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special on Tequila Day
• '100 Foot Wave' leads Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series in nominations, but could lose to 'SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night'
• 'The Daily Show Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: MAGA: The Next Generation' plus the Emmy nominees for Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
• Emmy nominee 'Desi Lydic Foxsplains the Epstein Files' plus the rest of the short form nominees at the Emmy Awards
• John Oliver examines 'Gang Databases' plus 'Last Week Tonight's six Emmy nominations
• Colbert, Lydic, and Meyers take closer looks at the EPA and Epstein and Kimmel goes down the rabbit hole on 'windmills'
• 'Jeopardy!' favored to win Game Show categories at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Welcome to Wrexham' vs. 'Love on the Spectrum' for Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• 'Shark Tank' vs. 'Queer Eye' for Outstanding Structured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win again
• 'Arcane' leads Gold Derby odds to win Outstanding Animated Program at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards

'Human Footprint' on PBS Terra describes 'The Mysterious Mass Extinction Hidden in LA'

Today's "evergreen educational entry" begins with PBS Terra describing The Mysterious Mass Extinction Hidden in LA, an excerpt from Human Footprint.

Beneath the streets of Los Angeles lies one of the most prolific fossil sites in the world. At the La Brea Tar Pits, millions of fossils including giant sloths, dire wolves, saber-toothed cats, and mammoths have surfaced from ancient asphalt, offering a rare glimpse into a vanished world.

In this episode of Human Footprint, Shane Campbell-Staton joins paleontologist Emily Lindsey to investigate the sudden disappearance of North America’s megafauna around 13,000 years ago. Together, they follow the trail of ancient life through radiocarbon dating, fossil excavations, and lake-bottom sediment cores.

For decades, scientists debated whether climate change or human hunters were to blame. But new evidence points to a more complex and unsettling cause: a dangerous combination of warming temperatures, ecological disruption, and the spread of fires… ignited by us.

This isn’t just a story about extinction. It’s a glimpse of how past crises mirror the present, and a warning about where we could be headed next.

I first mentioned that I was a paleontologist at the Tar Pits in Infidel 753 and I talk fossils. I explored my experience again in Kunstler, K-Dog, and I discuss prehistoric mammals for Darwin Day plus paczki on Fat Tuesday, PBS Eons explains 'How Plate Tectonics Transformed Los Angeles', and PBS Digital's Be Smart debunks 'The Biggest Myth About Climate Change', which is the most relevant to this video. There, I wrote "I have mentioned several times that I'm a paleontologist who studies Pleistocene fossils, particularly snails. What I don't mention is that I used data from the snails, clams, and plants of Rancho La Brea to reconstruct the late Pleistocene climate of southern California, so I'm quite familiar with natural climate change." I felt that was important enough that I recycled it in PBS NewsHour reports 'Record-breaking global temperature, raging wildfires highlight effects of climate change' plus Thursday broke another record and PBS Terra explains 'The REAL STORY of Climate Skeptics New Favorite Graph'. That gives me an expert perspective on the findings that the fire regime changed about 13,200 years ago, resulting in a changed ecosystem with humans but lacking the Pleistocene predators whose last fossils Emily Lindsey displayed for the camera.

When I was doing my research at the Tar Pits 40 years ago, I became quite familiar with the competing hypotheses of climate change and human overhunting (Paul Martin's overkill hypothesis) causing the terminal Pleistocene extinctions of New World megafauna. However, I also realized that overkill didn't replicate perfectly around the world. Humans arrived earlier in Australia than in the Americas, but it took thousands of years for the Australian megafauna to go extinct. The same was true in northern Eurasia, which had other humans, the Neanderthals and Denisovans, already living there for hundreds of thousands of years before modern humans arrived. And, of course, where the megafauna had co-evolved with human ancestors in Africa and southern Asia, most of the large animals survived into the present. I resolved these data by synthesizing them; late Pleistocene extinctions happened during the first episodes of major climate change after modern humans were first present. The mechanism I had in mind was that climate change stressed the populations of megafauna, which then couldn't withstand human hunting. That ancient humans could make the effects of climate change worse never occurred to me. As Shane Campbell-Staton said, "That is a plot twist I wasn't expecting."

Just because I wasn't expecting it either doesn't mean I don't accept it. I do. After all, I've been watching the fire season expand in California over the past 15 years. I even ask my students two questions about in the worksheet for Chasing Ice: "1. Chasing Ice opens with a montage of natural disasters. Name three of them." One of them is a wildfire. "How many months has the fire season increased in the American southwest since the 1980s?" The answer is two months, although last year's California fire season extended about four months into January, which I recounted in PBS Terra tells 'The REAL Story of the LA Fires | Full Documentary' for Flashback Friday. As Campbell-Staton said, this is uncomfortably familiar.

It also reminds me of two examples of why studying the past is important for understanding the present and predicting the future. The first comes from Prehistoric lions of Eurasia and North America for World Lion Day 2022: "one of the points of paleontology is to learn from the past and apply the knowledge gained to the present." The other I wrote in NOVA warns of 'The Next Pompeii' for the Ides of March.

[P]rocesses that happened in the past are likely to repeat in the future, so understanding the past is essential for preparation. This is a key takeaway from uniformitarianism, the concept that everything we see in nature is the result of everyday processes occurring over sufficient time, which is boiled down to "the present is the key to the past." It also means that the past is the key to the future.

File all the above under "it's a always a good day when I learn something new."

I also felt a lot of nostalgia seeing where I spent much of four years, but this entry has gone on long enough. Time to wrap it up. Stay tuned for another entry about the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

'Arcane' leads Gold Derby odds to win Outstanding Animated Program at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards

I changed my mind since I wrote "I might examine the remaining nominations for the singing and dancing talent shows next" in the conclusion to 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win again. I wasn't feeling it. Instead, I'm looking at animation, a genre I don't always cover. Here are the nominations for animation and voice-over at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Animated Program

• Arcane: "The Dirt Under Your Nails" (Netflix)
• Bob's Burgers: "They Slug Horses, Don't They?" (Fox)
• Common Side Effects: "Cliff's Edge" (Adult Swim)
• Love, Death & Robots: "Spider Rose" (Netflix)
• The Simpsons: "Bart's Birthday" (Fox)

Arcane, Love, Death & Robots, and The Simpsons all have two nominations, while Bob's Burgers and Common Side Effects have just this one. Gold Derby's odds break the tie at the top as all experts, three-quarters of editors, and 88.2% of users have chosen 2022 winner Arcane to return to the podium next month. The other quarter of the editors and 6.3% of users picked 2023 winner The Simpsons to walk off with the statuette. The long-shot picks are Bob's Burgers with 2.8% of users, Common Side Effects with 1.7% of users, and Love, Death & Robots in last with 1.0% of users. Love, Death & Robots will have to get its Emmy elsewhere.

Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance

• Julie Andrews – Bridgerton: "Into The Light" as Lady Whistledown (Netflix)
• Hank Azaria – The Simpsons: "Abe League of Their Moe" as Moe Szyslak (FOX)
• Maya Rudolph – Big Mouth: "Why Do We Go Through Puberty?" as Connie the Hormone Monstress (Netflix)
• Alan Tudyk – Andor: "Who Else Knows?" as K-2SO (Disney+)
• Jeffrey Wright – What If...?: "What If... 1872?" as The Watcher (Disney+)
• Steven Yeun – Invincible: "What Have I Done?" as Mark Grayson / Invincible (Prime Video)

Gold Derby expects Maya Rudolph to win for the fifth time since 2020 with the support of 85.7% of experts, all editors, and 72.2% of users. Alan Tudyk, who would be one of two nominees who would win a game of "one of these things is not like the others" because he's in a live-action show, sits in second with 14.3% of experts and 13.2% of users. Julie Andrews would be the other contestant in "one of these things is not like the others" and has 8.3% backing her. Steven Yuen has the support of 4.9% of users, while Hank Azaria and Jeffrey Wright are tied at 0.7% of users apiece.

Outstanding Sound Editing for an Animated Program

• Arcane: "The Dirt Under Your Nails" – Brad Beaumont, Eliot Connors, Stephen P. Robinson, Janet "PJ" Pascual, Dan O'Connell, and John Cucci (Netflix)
• Love, Death & Robots: "400 Boys" – Brad North, Craig Henighan, Dawn Lunsford, Jeff Charbonneau, and Alicia Stevens (Netflix)
• Secret Level: "Warhammer 40,000: They Shall Know No Fear" – Matt Yocum, Brad North, Nolan McNaughton, Ryan Sullivan, Joseph Fraioli, Christopher Battaglia, Harry Cohen, Matt Manselle, Matt Tesley, and Brian Straub (Prime Video)
• Star Trek: Lower Decks: "The New Next Generation" – James Lucero, Drew Guy, Konrad Piñon, James Singleton, John Wynn, Michael Britt, and Amber Funk (Paramount+)
• What If...?: "What If... 1872?" – Mac Smith, Vanessa Lapato, Alyssa Nevarez, Steve Bissinger, Derek McGinley, Anele Onyekwere, Carl Sealove, Andrea Stelter Gard, and Sean England (Disney+)

Gold Derby does not have odds for this category, which is new, having been split off from comedy. My pick is the last animation winner, Love, Death & Robots, although both Arcane and Star Trek: Lower Decks are previous nominees.

Expect me to repeat the last two categories in this year's edition of Star Trek vs. Star Wars - futuristic politics and government at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Star Trek vs. Star Wars at the 2024 Emmy Awards for Star Trek Day, which might feature updated odds for voice-over. In the meantime, expect another evergreen educational entry tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Previous posts about the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards

• No PSAs among nominees for Outstanding Commercial plus winners for Outstanding Promotional Announcement at the Emmy Awards
• 'I Am: Celine Dion,' 'Patrice: The Movie,' and 'The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,' Emmy nominees for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking
• 'Asia' and 'The Americas' lead nature documentaries at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Pee-wee as Himself' vs. 'Will & Harper' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special on Tequila Day
• '100 Foot Wave' leads Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series in nominations, but could lose to 'SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night'
• 'The Daily Show Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: MAGA: The Next Generation' plus the Emmy nominees for Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
• Emmy nominee 'Desi Lydic Foxsplains the Epstein Files' plus the rest of the short form nominees at the Emmy Awards
• John Oliver examines 'Gang Databases' plus 'Last Week Tonight's six Emmy nominations
• Colbert, Lydic, and Meyers take closer looks at the EPA and Epstein and Kimmel goes down the rabbit hole on 'windmills'
• 'Jeopardy!' favored to win Game Show categories at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Welcome to Wrexham' vs. 'Love on the Spectrum' for Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• 'Shark Tank' vs. 'Queer Eye' for Outstanding Structured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win again