Sunday, September 1, 2024

Gold Derby predicts guest actor, guest actress, reality host, and voice-over at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards


I was confused when I wrote CNBC explains 'Why Automakers Are Invading Your Privacy,' a double driving update yesterday; the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina is next year, so the Sunday entertainment feature it is. Time to return to the Emmy Awards with nominations for guest actor, guest actress, reality show host, and voice-over performance plus odds from Gold Derby, so here are the nominees at the 76th Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards!

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
  • Jon Bernthal – The Bear: "Fishes" as Michael Berzatto (FX)
  • Matthew Broderick – Only Murders in the Building: "CoBro" as Matthew Broderick (Hulu)
  • Ryan Gosling – Saturday Night Live: "Host: Ryan Gosling" as host (NBC)
  • Christopher Lloyd – Hacks: "The Deborah Vance Christmas Spectacular" as Larry Arbuckle (Max)
  • Bob Odenkirk – The Bear: "Fishes" as Uncle Lee (FX)
  • Will Poulter – The Bear: "Honeydew" as Luca (FX)
Gold Derby's editors and top 24 users have divided opinions about the likely winner. The editors are split five to five between Jon Bernthal and Christopher Lloyd with one editor picking Ryan Gosling as a dark horse. The experts are even more evenly divided among the top three nominees with four backing Bernthal and three going for Gosling, leaving two for Lloyd. On the other hand, the top 24 users display more consolidation with 18 behind Bernthal, three voting for Gosling, only two for Lloyd, and one brave user making a long shot bet on Bob Odenkirk.

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
  • Olivia Colman – The Bear: "Forks" as Chef Terry (FX)
  • Jamie Lee Curtis – The Bear: "Fishes" as Donna Berzatto (FX)
  • Kaitlin Olson – Hacks: "The Roast of Deborah Vance" as DJ Vance (Max)
  • Da'Vine Joy Randolph – Only Murders in the Building: "Sitzprobe" as Donna Williams (Hulu)
  • Maya Rudolph – Saturday Night Live: "Host: Maya Rudolph" as host (NBC)
  • Kristen Wiig – Saturday Night Live: "Host: Kristen Wiig" as host (NBC)
The editors, experts, and top 24 users have unanimously chosen Jamie Lee Curtis. After seeing how she won an Oscar for Everything, Everywhere, All at Once, I think the prognosticators at Gold Derby have been convinced of Hollywood's love for Curtis so they agree she'll win an Emmy to go with her Oscar. To reiterate, electorates matter.

Between Bernthal and Curtis, it could be a mini-sweep of comedy guest performances for The Bear. That probably won't happen at the Primetime Emmys, as Hacks could win both actress awards while both actors could repeat for The Bear.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
  • Néstor Carbonell – Shogun: "Anjin" as Vasco Rodrigues (FX)
  • Paul Dano – Mr. & Mrs. Smith: "A Breakup" as Harris Materbach (Prime Video)
  • Tracy Letts – Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty: "The New World" as Jack McKinney (HBO)
  • Jonathan Pryce – Slow Horses: "Footprints" as David Cartwright (Apple TV+)
  • John Turturro – Mr. & Mrs. Smith: "Second Date" as Eric Shane (Prime Video)
Eight of the eleven editors voted for Néstor Carbonell, two for John Turturro, and one for Jonathan Pryce. The experts exhibit a similar split with six for Carbonell, two for John Turturro, and one for Jonathan Pryce. The top 24 users are generally playing it safe with 21 chosing Carbonell, while one each are making long shot picks for Paul Dano, Pryce, and Turturro.

Speaking of sweeps, Shogun could see one for its nominated actors between the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and the Primetime Emmy Awards. I'll get to its nominations next week.

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
  • Michaela Coel – Mr. & Mrs. Smith: "Infidelity" as Bev (Prime Video)
  • Claire Foy – The Crown: "Sleep, Dearie Sleep" as Queen Elizabeth II (Netflix)
  • Marcia Gay Harden – The Morning Show: "Update Your Priors" as Maggie Brener (Apple TV+)
  • Sarah Paulson – Mr. & Mrs. Smith: "Couples Therapy (Naked & Afraid)" as Therapist (Prime Video)
  • Parker Posey – Mr. & Mrs. Smith: "Double Date" as Second Other Jane (Prime Video)
Eight editors chose Claire Foy to claim another Emmy for her part of the role, two voted for Michaela Coel, and one picked Parker Posey. The experts are just as evenly split among the top nominees here as they are for guest drama actor with three for Foy, and two each voting for Coel, Sarah Paulson, and Posey. As they are for guest actress, the users display more agreement with the editors than the experts with 20 fine with Foy, three choosing Coel, and one picking Paulson.

As I observed in Gold Derby's predictions for Emmy-nominated shows, "Shogun moved from limited series to drama series just in time to make the ballot in this category, unseating The Crown as the favorite." Fortunately for Foy, no one from Shogun earned a nomination in this category, so she might be the one acting winner for the series' final season.

Follow over the jump for the nominees and Gold Derby odds for Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance and Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality Competition Program plus a linkspam to previous entries in this series.

Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance
  • Hank Azaria – The Simpsons: "Cremains of the Day" as Moe Szyslak (Fox)
  • Alex Borstein – Family Guy: "Teacher's Heavy Pet" as Lois Griffin (Fox)
  • Sterling K. Brown – Invincible: "I Thought You Were Stronger" as Angstrom Levy / Angstrom #646 (Prime Video)
  • Maya Rudolph – Big Mouth: "The Ambition Gremlin" as Connie the Hormone Monstress (Netflix)
  • Hannah Waddingham – Krapopolis: "Big Man on Hippocampus" as Deliria (Fox)
The editors unanimously see Maya Rudolph returning for a fourth Emmy in this category. Eight of the experts agree with the editors on Rudolph, while one brave soul singled out Sterling K. Brown to step off the stage with the trophy. Twenty-three of the top 24 users think Rudolph will repeat, while agreed with the lone expert on Brown.

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality Competition Program
  • RuPaul Charles – RuPaul's Drag Race (MTV)
  • Alan Cumming – The Traitors (Peacock)
  • Daymond John, Barbara Corcoran, Mark Cuban, Lori Greiner, Kevin O'Leary and Robert Herjavec – Shark Tank (ABC)
  • Kristen Kish – Top Chef (Bravo)
  • Jeff Probst – Survivor (CBS)
Nine editors voted for RuPaul to return to the stage, while two agree with the Gold Derby TV Awards voters that Alan Cumming will win. The experts are less sure with five picking RuPaul and four choosing Cumming. In contrast, the top 24 users agree with the editors that RuPaul will reign supreme for one more year, while four chose Cumming.

That's a wrap for today's post. I plan on returning with more Emmy coverage this week, but stay tuned for Labor Day first.

Previous posts about the 76th Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards

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