Vox asks 'Is the US running out of Social Security?'

Today's post is a follow-up of sorts to PBS Terra asks 'What Happens When Demographics Change Forever?' Watch as Vox asks and attempts to answer Is the US running out of Social Security?

There’s no denying that Americans rely heavily on Social Security benefits. Estimates from the Social Security Administration found that 97% of adults over the age of 60 are either collecting or will start collecting Social Security. As of February 2023, about one in every five residents in the US collected benefits from these funds. For such a widely used program, it’s a bit surprising that people in the US know so little about how it works. To be fair, most of the news around this program over the past decade has been about how it’s doomed in one way or another. Millennials and younger may see the money being taxed from their paychecks and believe they’ll probably never see it again, but is the program really destined to fail? And what do we stand to lose if it does? Check out the video above to get the most basic facts about Social Security in the United States and what to expect in the coming years.

The answer to the question is "not until 2033 at current rates" and even then, "not really." Eighty percent of current benefits would not be a good outcome, but it's definitely not nothing. As for the solutions that would maintain current levels of benefits, the one I'm most familiar with is increasing the cap on income being taxed. I'm O.K. with that, but that's because I don't quite earn enough to have the payroll tax not deducted from my final paycheck of the year. Even if I did, I might want that money after I retire, which I plan on doing in December 2026. As for taxing investment income, that's something I hadn't considered, but I'd like even more if it could happen. Good luck making that happen with the current House of Representatives, although it wouldn't be them doing it anyway. I expect nothing will happen until 2029 at the earliest.

Since this video deals with the intersection among demographics, economy, and government, it's something I'd be tempted to show my students as part of the unit on population I'm teaching right now. It even features an animated age structure. Unfortunately, it has an ad in the middle of it. I'm not showing that to my students!

That's it for today's evergreen non-holiday post. Stay tuned for the next installment of marching music for primaries and caucuses on the Vernal Equinox.