Saturday, November 3, 2012

Good news for Democrats, bad news for proposals at

I concluded my previous entry promoting my writings on by noting my position on the site's leaderboard.
I'm currently ranked fifth out of 170 elections Examiners nationwide. I also got promoted to "preferred source." That's enough of an ego boost to induce me to write more during the next two weeks.
Ever since then, I've been wondering what I'd write to try to maintain my position. Last night, I finally got the combination of inspiration and opportunity--a week of heavy polling and an evening off. I responded by writing a record three articles in one sitting.

The first two articles are good news for Democrats in Michigan.

Barack Obama leads in all six polls of Michigan released this week.
Photo credit: Getty Images
Six polls show Obama ahead in Michigan
This week's polls of Michigan's voters opened with the Detroit News releasing a poll on Tuesday that showed Willard Mitt Romney within three percentage points of Barack Obama. Obama led with 47.7% to Romney's 45.0%. The previous Detroit News poll had Obama leading 49% to Romney's 42.3%.

Based on the change in their poll, the Detroit News trumpeted the result as showing that "Romney is within striking distance of Obama in Michigan" and quoted Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group Inc., who conducted the poll for the News, about the meaning of the results. "Mitt Romney's numbers … are where they would need to be if he hopes to pull off an upset next week. But the question is: Is there enough for a final push?"

According to five polls released later in the week, which reported Obama leads ranging from five percent to eight percent, the answer to Czuba's question appears to be "No."
To give an exclamation point to the answer of "No" to Czuba's asking if Romney would be able to catch up to Obama in Michigan, Nate Silver of the New York Times currently gives Obama a 98.5% chance of winning the state.
In addition to details about the five polls, I also include some data from Epic-MRA showing that there is a small enthusiasm gap among Republicans, not Democrats, here in Michigan. Gee, that wasn't supposed to be the narrative this year.

Follow over the jump for news about Debbie Stabenow and the ballot initiatives.

Senator Debbie Stabenow leads handily in three polls this week.
Credits: Public Domain (Wikipedia)
Polls show Stabenow with overwhelming lead for Senate
Three polls came out this week surveying the U.S. Senate contest between Debbie Stabenow and Pete Hoekstra. All three showed Stabenow with a commanding lead of anywhere from thirteen to twenty-one percent over Hoekstra.

Both of Detroit's major dailies published the results of polls they commissioned on Wednesday. The Detroit Free Press's survey, conducted by Epic-MRA gave Stabenow a twenty-one-point lead, 54% to 33%. The Detroit News reported a 14.9-point advantage for Stabenow, 52.4% to 37.5%.

On Friday, Public Policy Polling (PPP) released their latest poll of Michigan. Stabenow led Hoekstra by thirteen percent, 53% to 40%.

"Debbie Stabenow is going to win comfortably in this race," pollster Richard Czuba of Chicago's Glengariff Group told The Detroit News.
Hoestra's campaign has never recovered from his racially insensitive Super Bowl ad. I can't say that I'm disappointed. After all, I protested a campaign event of his where Paul Ryan appeared.

Polls indicate most of the six referendums on Michigan's ballot headed for defeat.
Credits: Scott Olson/Getty Images
Polls suggest most proposals headed to defeat
The two polls published this week by Detroit's major newspapers suggest that most of the six ballot proposals on the statewide ballot are in trouble. Neither the survey commissioned by the Detroit News and WDIV-TV nor the poll conducted by Epic-MRA for the Detroit Free Press list any proposal with a majority of voters supporting them.

The polls disagreed most on Proposal 1, the referendum on Public Act 4, the 2011 Emergency Manager Law. The Detroit News poll indicated a plurality in favor (45.0% yes to 39.5% no with 15.2% undecided), while the Detroit Free Press showed a plurality against (35% yes to 43% no with 18% undecided). A yes vote on Proposal 1 would approve the current Emergency Manager legislation, while a no vote would repeal it.

All the rest appeared to be losing in both polls, although some proposals had yes and no responses within the margin of error in the Epic-MRA poll, and all proposals had a high number of undecided voters.
Proposals showed clear patterns of party support in the Free Press/Epic-MRA poll. Majorities of Democrats supported Proposals 2, 3, and 4, and opposed 1 and 5. Majorities of Republicans supported 1 and opposed all the rest. A majority of independents supported 6 and opposed 3.
Republicans and Democrats both oppose Proposal 5. So do I. Good, we can agree on something being bad for Michigan. Republicans and independents both agree that they don't like Proposal 3. Phooey. Time to win over independents about the benefits of renewable energy. Finally, what are the independents thinking by supporting Proposal 6? As I've said before, Matty Maroun can go to Hell.

Had I not run out of time and energy last night, I would have written a fourth article about the polling in the Michigan Supreme Court contests. That's also good news for Democrats, as Connie Kelley and Bridget McCormack, the two candidates the Free Press endorsed, are both leading for the two eight-year terms on the ballot. That would be enough to swing control of the court to the Democrats.

Crossposted to Michigan Liberal and Daily Kos (Modified title and without images).


  1. While some individual Democrats do support Prop. 3 (25% renewable energy by 2025), the Democratic Party does not. That's a shame, because the absence of institutional support may cause the defeat of the initiative, and Michigan can continue hemmoraging money to pay for coal and uranium to power generating plants.

  2. My cat had something to say.