Brenda Lawrence announces retirement from Congress and Rashida Tlaib announces run for her new district, the latest in Congressional musical chairs from Michigan

It's redistricting time again! While I was posting retrospectives of the year just ended, the Michigan redistricting commission adopted its final Congressional map. Since Michigan lost another seat in the House of Representatives, that's kicking off the decennial game of musical chairs as U.S. Representatives scramble for seats. The latest happened today, as WDIV 4/Click on Detroit reported Michigan Rep. Brenda Lawrence announces she won’t seek reelection to Congress.

Michigan Rep. Brenda Lawrence has formally announced that she will not seek reelection to Congress.

The Hill uploaded the entire announcement in 25th House Democrat Announces Plans To Retire From Congress along with a video description that puts it in a national political context.

Michigan Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D) on Tuesday said she would not seek another term after serving eight years in Congress, making her the 25th House Democrat this year to announce plans to retire.

On the one hand, I'm disappointed, as I live in the new 12th Congressional District and I was looking forward to her representing my wife and me in Washington, D.C. On the other, my wife passed along the following Detroit Free Press story: Rep. Rashida Tlaib to run for reelection in new Detroit-Dearborn-Southfield district.

U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Detroit, announced Wednesday that she will run for reelection to her third term in the newly created district merging west Detroit with Dearborn, western Wayne County and Southfield.

The announcement came about 12 hours after U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence, D-Southfield, said she would not run for re-election to a fifth term. Had Lawrence run for reelection, it likely would have been in the same district Tlaib will now run in.

The saying is that nature abhors a vacuum, which isn't strictly true because much of the universe is a near vacuum, but politics also abhors a vacuum and Tlaib quickly filled this one. The Detroit Free Press explained why she did so instead of remaining in the new district where she currently resides.

While Tlaib doesn't currently live in what will be known as the 12th Congressional District, she plans to move. From a political standpoint, the decision makes sense, given that Tlaib's base in what is currently the 13th Congressional District has been on the west side of Detroit and in western Wayne County.

Now I'm looking forward to voting for Tlaib so she can be my Representative in Congress. That ends my short-lived disappointment.

Lawrence and Tlaib weren't the first Representatives to announce their moves to run for a new seat. Debbie Dingell did so last week, which WDIV 4/Click on Detroit reported in What impact will redistricting have at the polls?


Dingell decided to move out of a district created because of the Voting Rights Act, a move that would have originally helped Lawrence but now helps Tlaib, to the new 6th district that is nominally open but Dingell represented and contains her most loyal voters. I think that was a smart move and I'm glad she took it. The same is true for Elissa Slotkin, who announced that she would be moving from her home in Holly, Michigan to run in the new 7th District, which contains most of her voters. I wish Haley Stevens would do the same for the open 10th instead of running against Andy Levin, my current Representative. I'd like to keep both of them in Congress, but that doesn't look like it will happen. Sigh.

Speaking of sighing at the outcome, the Detroit Free Press described one outcome of Tlaib moving.

Her decision, taken with Lawrence's, leaves a newly drawn 13th District that includes much of Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Southfield and part of southeastern Oakland County without a sitting member of Congress looking to run there. That is expected to set off a scramble among Democrats to fill the open seat.

The leading candidate as I write this is Shri Thanedar, who represents part of Detroit in the Michigan House of Representatives. He's well-off and can self-fund. However, he's not alone in wanting that seat or challenging Tlaib, as the Detroit News reported.

[13th District Democratic Party Chair Jonathan] Kinloch has heard from a few potential candidates who are weighing a run in the new 13th District, including attorney Michael Griffie, state Sen. Marshall Bullock of Detroit and former Detroit Police Chief Ralph Godbee Jr., now chief of staff at Triumph Church.

Other possible contenders include former state Sen. Ian Conyers who ran against Tlaib and others in the crowded 13th District Democratic primary in 2018. Former state Rep. Sherry Gay Dagnogo, who sits on the Detroit school board, announced on Facebook late Tuesday she is running for Congress, though it was unclear for which district.

Once again, my readers and I should find this year's elections interesting and fun to watch, as much fun as this actual game of musical chairs except I don't expect it to be as cheerful.


Stay tuned for the anniversary of last year's attempted self-coup. That certainly won't be a cheerful occasion.

SpaceX launches all-amateur/tourist crew, a 'Billionaire Space Race' update

I wrote about "Branson's and Bezos's launches two months ago as stages of what Neil DeGrasse Tyson called the "Billionaire Space Race." The third and leading billionaire in the contest fired back yesterday as MSNBC reported in SpaceX Makes History Launching All-Civilian Crew Into Orbit.

Elon Musk's aerospace company SpaceX launched four space tourists into orbit from Kennedy Space Center in Florida reaching a new milestone for the space tourism industry. NBC News Correspondent Cal Perry joins MSNBC's Brian Williams to discuss the history-making moment.

Musk himself didn't fly, but another billionaire did, as the Associated Press in the Detroit News reported.

Leading the flight is Jared Isaacman, 38, who made his fortune with a payment-processing company he started in his teens...Isaacman is the third billionaire to launch this summer, following the brief space-skimming flights by Virgin Galactic’s Richard Branson and Blue Origin’s Jeff Bezos in July.

Hayley Arceneaux, Chris Sembroski, and Sian Proctor joined Issacman on the flight. Together, they form the first all-tourist crew in orbit with no professional astronauts. While it comes off as a bit of a stunt, I still think that making space profitable, including space tourism, is a good thing for space exploration and exploitation.

MSNBC just showed highlights behind commentary. CBS News showed nearly all the launch in SpaceX makes history with successful launch of first all-civilian crew to orbit Earth.

SpaceX has launched four amateurs on a private flight to circle Earth for three days. It's the first time a rocket has streaked toward orbit with no professional astronauts on board. Former astronaut Garrett Resiman, who is also a senior advisor at SpaceX and a professor of astronautical engineering at USC, joins CBSN's Lana Zak to describe the launch.

The launch went well, so here's to a safe flight and landing.

CDC confirms largest drop in life expectancy since World War II during 2020, a pandemic update

I reported that life expectancy fell 1 year for all Americans, 3 years for African-Americans, during 2020 because of the pandemic. While I updated this grim news in U.S. birth and fertility rates and life expectancy all fell in 2020 for a late World Population Day, I didn't base it on the latest CDC data. That came out this week, which NJ Spotlight News featured in US life expectancy sees biggest drop in generations.

People of color are seeing the biggest drop, with Black Americans and Hispanics now having a life expectancy roughly three years lower than in 2019. Hispanic males saw the biggest drop, at 3.7 years.

For more details, watch CBS New York's report U.S. Life Expectancy Sees Staggering Drop Due To Pandemic.

New government data shows life expectancy in the U.S. has reached the lowest level since 2003, with people living on average just over 77 years. The biggest culprit? COVID deaths. CBS2's Jessica Layton reports.

For even more detail, I turn to the Associated Press in the Detroit News.

The drop spelled out by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is due mainly to the COVID-19 pandemic, which health officials said is responsible for close to 74% of the overall life expectancy decline. More than 3.3 million Americans died last year, far more than any other year in U.S. history, with COVID-19 accounting for about 11% of those deaths.

When I quoted USA Today reporting "more than 3 million people died in 2020 - the deadliest year in US history" in A pandemic update from Michigan as vaccinations ramp up while U.S. death toll passes 400,000, neither my source nor I were being pessimistic enough.

Just because the pandemic is responsible for most of the drop, other causes, like the opioid epidemic and systemic racism making the pandemic worse for minorities, played roles in lowering life expectancy.

Killers other than COVID-19 played a role. Drug overdoses pushed life expectancy down, particularly for whites. And rising homicides were a small but significant reason for the decline for Black Americans, said Elizabeth Arias, the report's lead author.

Other problems affected Black and Hispanic people, including lack of access to quality health care, more crowded living conditions, and a greater share of the population in lower-paying jobs that required them to keep working when the pandemic was at its worst, experts said.

Last year's excess mortality will have long-lasting effects on the survivors, as CBS Evening News reported in Study finds over 100,000 U.S. children lost a parent during pandemic.

More than 100,000 children in the U.S. have lost at least one parent from the COVID-19 pandemic. The news comes as the U.S. saw its largest drop in life expectancy since World War II. Mireya Villarreal shares more.

Loss of parents from the pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on minorities as well. That's another reason why returning to the pre-pandemic normal isn't good enough.

Vox explains how American CEOs got rich by buying back their companies' stock

I could not decide what to write about today until I listened to the October Democratic debate on the way home from work and heard Joe Biden mention corporations using their profits to buy back stocks instead of investing in their workers by raising wages and benefits.  I thought "Vox has a video about that."  So here is How American CEOs got so rich, which explains the history of stock buybacks and the role they play in increasing CEO compensation at the expense of workers.

For a long time, it was off-limits for a corporation to buy back its own stock. Not anymore.
...
American companies today spend billions on stock buybacks. So what does that mean for the US economy? And how did it help make American CEOs so unbelievably rich?

What struck me was the connection between CEO compensation and investor dividends to the closing of GM plants.  Plant closings are one of the issues in the ongoing UAW strike against GM.  So is getting rid of two-tiered wage scales and putting every worker on the same scale, which will increase wages overall, even if it might not benefit those on the top tier much if at all.  Is GM willing to reduce its shareholder and executive compensation so it can pay workers?  I'm guessing it's resisting that idea, which is why the strike is in its fifth week.  At least there are signs GM and the UAW are getting close to an agreement.  I hope that's so.

R.I.P. L. Brooks Patterson, 1939-2019

Original at Oakland County Times.
Long-time Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson has died.  WXYZ has a video tribute.


WXYZ had no description other than the video title, but the local papers have lots of pithy quotes in their obituaries.  First, The Detroit News.

“It is with deep sadness that I report the passing of our friend and county executive, L. Brooks Patterson,” Chief Deputy County Executive Gerald D. Poisson said. “He was a once-in-a-generation leader whose vision inspired all of us to be part of the best county government in America.”
...
"Our dad was a courageous fighter all his life and he fought right up until the end," [Mary] Warner said. "Our family is grieving over the unimaginable loss of our father, grandfather, hero, and friend. Many will remember him for his impact on Michigan and generosity toward Oakland County. We'll remember him for his love and generosity toward his family and friends."
...
“It’s been a great run,” said David Vanderveen, director of central services, including the county airport, who had been with Patterson since 1993. “He supported his people, which is great for a leader, and when he came in, he said: ‘We are going to work hard and play hard.’ And we have.”
...
“For a half-century, Brooks Patterson, despite never holding statewide office, has been the most prominent person in Michigan politics, with the possible exception of (former Detroit mayor) Coleman Young,” said [William] Ballenger, who puts out the digital website The Ballenger Report.

Just as he's the last person I quoted from The Detroit News article, Ballenger is the first person I quote from the article at the Detroit Free Press.

“Certainly, in Oakland County, he was clearly the iconic, dominant figure of the past half century,” said longtime political analyst William Ballenger. “He was synonymous with what Oakland County came to be and to represent.”
...
“He’s going to be remembered for his tremendous public service, leading one of the most successful counties in the nation,” said former Republican Gov. John Engler, a longtime friend and political ally. "Even when there was weakness around it. He can be very proud of AAA bond rating, the technology leadership and he helped create a jobs engine in the state. There are an awful lot of lives that are better because of Brooks’ leadership.”
...
"You cannot dispute his leadership abilities and his desire to make Oakland County the premier county in the country,” [Former Farmington Hills Mayor Vicki Barnett] said. "While we always disagreed on policy, he’s an extremely jovial, likable man with a bigger than life personality, who’s really been a champion for Oakland County.”

While I disagreed with Patterson about sprawl, transit policy and redistricting, I have to acknowledge that he ran the county where I've worked since 1996 and lived since 2010 very well for the past 27 years.  May the county be as fortunate with his successor.

Speaking of which, The Detroit News reported that "Poisson will take the oath of office to serve as county executive until either the Oakland County Board of Commissioners appoints a successor within 30 days or a special election is held."  That has the potential to be very interesting politically, if not downright entertaining.  Stay tuned.

Conyers resigns, setting up scramble for his seat

Original at Detroit Free Press.

I think John Conyers should retire.  He's had his term as the longest serving Representative.  Let someone else have the honor.  He doesn't deserve it anymore.

That was the opening paragraph of a comment I left in an open thread at We Hunted The Mammoth last month.  Well, I got my wish.  WXYZ reported yesterday Rep. John Conyers officially announces retirement, read resignation letter.

Rep. John Conyers, who has been battling sexual harassment allegations by former female staffers, says he is retiring. Conyers told "The Mildred Gaddis Show" on WPZR-FM Tuesday that this will be his final two-year term. The 88-year-old Democrat says he is endorsing his son to take his seat in Congress. Ian Conyers, the grandson of John Conyers' brother, earlier said his great-uncle would not run for re-election and that he would run for his seat in Washington, D.C. Conyers, who was first elected in 1964, easily won re-election last year in the heavily Democratic 13th District. The House Ethics Committee has been reviewing multiple harassment allegations against Conyers.

The man did a lot of good over the years, but it was time for him to go.  I that is not a new thought of mine, as I stated it in 2015.

Conyers almost didn't qualify for the ballot last year, as too many of his signatures were collected by paid petition circulators, which was illegal at the time (that provision of Michigan's election law was overturned in the process of getting Conyers back on the ballot).  That's a sign that Conyers has been losing control of his operation.  Along with other rumors about his age getting to him, it indicates that it might be time for Conyers to retire.

Now that Conyers has not just retired, but resigned, who will replace him and when will that happen?  WXYZ reported on that as well in Gov. Snyder reviewing dates for special election to replace John Conyers.

Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder is reviewing possible dates for a special election in Michigan's 13th Congressional district to replace John Conyers. Rep. John Conyers officially announces retirement, read resignation letter The 88-year-old congressman announced Tuesday he is retiring amid sexual harassment allegations. Ari Adler, a spokesman for the governor's office, said they received his resignation letter and are reviewing potential dates for the special election. Conyers was scheduled to serve out his two-year term, which ends on Jan. 3, 2019, but because his retirement is effective immediately, there will now be a special election for his seat.

In addition to the two younger Conyers, Coleman Young II, who just lost to Mike Duggan for Detroit mayor, the Detroit News listed a long roster of potential candidates.

Democratic activist Michael Gilmore is running for Conyers’ seat. Other names circulating Tuesday as potential candidates included state Sens. David Knezek of Dearborn Heights and Coleman Young II of Detroit, former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Detroit, Westland Mayor Bill Wild, Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones and Councilwoman Mary Sheffield.

Counting both Conyers cousins, Young, and Gilmore, four candidates have already declared their intent to run for this now vacant seat in a safe Democratic district.  I fully expect more to throw their hats into the ring.  The one I would root for is Tlaib, who organized protests against Trump last year.  Those got my attention and respect.

I have one last item to note about this entire affair.  While it was past time for Conyers to retire and this scandal got him to do the right thing, I found the catalyst for it to be tainted, as I noted in the rest of my comment at We Hunted The Mammoth.

That written, the Wonkette article noted that a recurring subject of this blog, Mike Cernovich, was the one who broke the story and pointed out that it was reminiscent of how Roger Stone knew that Al Franken was going to be exposed before the news broke.  Josh Marshall noticed this and asked "Why Cernovich?"

This doesn't mean [Cernovich] and Stone are wrong -- even a stopped clock is right twice a day -- it just means that they're motives aren't pure and they are still not friends of women.  As Wonkette wrote, "beware of ratf*cking."

It also raises the question of "Why Conyers?"  Yes, the allegations were backed up by evidence and later accounts by other women and I think that Conyers needed to retire before the scandal, but why Conyers and not some other Representative who misbehaved?  I noted two years ago that "According to Voteview, he's the most liberal member of the Michigan Congressional delegation, as well as one of the oldest."  I suspect that may be part of the answer to Marshall's question, "Why Cernovich?"

Conyers isn't the only member of Michigan's Congressional delegation to announce his retirement.  Stay tuned for news about another U.S. Representative leaving under more ordinary circumstances.

Kid Rock for Senate?

Kevin Robbins of Hometown U.S.A. and I had this enchange in the comments to Entertainers and sports organizations condemn Charlottesville violence and trademark infringement.

[Kevin:] I trust Senator Stabenow will chew up and spit out little bits of Kid Rock next year. The Republican primary, presuming there is one, should be a show for the ages.

[Me:] Me, too. Thanks for mentioning that. I really have been neglecting a big story in my own backyard. I'll have to remedy that in the near future.

It turns out I have been ignoring this story for longer than I thought.  Nearly six months ago, Stephen Colbert observed If 'President Trump' Is Hard To Say, Try 'Senator Kid Rock'.

Kid Rock is running for Senate in Michigan, and there's only one man standing in his way.

LOL!  Unfortunately for Kid Rock, his primary opponent won't be the fictional Shrieking Joe.  They're the very real Bloomfield Hills businesswoman Lena Epstein, who was Michigan co-chair for Trump, and retired Michigan Supreme Court Justice Bob Young.  In addition, businessman and Iraq War veteran John James of Farmington Hills has formed an exploratory committee, as The Detroit News reported.  Follow over the jump for my analysis of that field.

Tax marches across the country and in Michigan

While Tax Day is actually tomorrow, April 15th is still traditionally considered the deadline to file federal income taxes.  Since it also fell on a Saturday and the U.S. has a President who refuses to release his tax returns, it was also the perfect opportunity for Americans to march in favor of his doing so.  CBC's The National reports Thousands of protesters call on Trump to release taxes showing several of these demonstrations.

Demonstrators held 'tax marches' in cities across the country Saturday, calling for U.S. president to release the last 10 years of his tax returns.

I love the Trump chicken, which first appeared in Happy Year of the Fire Rooster!  It's the perfect symbol for him on this issue.

The National didn't mention it, but there were protests in Michigan, too.  The Detroit News listed marches in Ann Arbor, Detroit, Farmington, Hamtramck, Grand Rapids, Pentwater and Marquette.  The largest was in Ann Arbor, which had nearly 1,000 more attendees than Detroit.  Follow over the jump for videos from MLive covering the protest.

Party's over as judge orders Michigan recount halted

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I told my readers at the end of Dueling rulings mean Michigan recount continues for now "All parties involved (pun intended) will be back in the same federal court that ordered the recount to begin on Monday to argue their cases.  Stay tuned."  That happened and WOOD-TV reported the result was Federal judge agrees to end Michigan recount after 3 days.

A federal judge who ordered Michigan to start a second look at presidential votes has dropped his decision, effectively ending the recount.

Well, phooey.  I was hoping to see it finished, although I worried that the party might end prematurely.  Still, it served its purpose, as the Detroit Free Press as reprinted in USA Today passed along the following from Jill Stein's campaign.

But attorneys for Stein argued the recount must continue, stressing that thus far it has shown numerous voting problems across the state, particularly in Detroit, where more than half of the precincts' ballots cannot be recounted due to problems that have not been disclosed. They also argued that Stein is an aggrieved party if she participated in an election that was plagued with mistakes or fraud. And the voters of Michigan have a right to know that, too, they said.

"There is no way of knowing whether fraud occurred without conducting the recount," Stein's attorney, Hayley Horowitz, told Goldsmith during the hearing, arguing it is "way to early" to know if fraud was an issue.

After the hearing, Stein told the Detroit Free Press that so far, the recount appears to be exposing problems with Michigan's election process, particularly in low-income, minority communities.

"It is revealing some really troubling aspects of how elections are run here," Horowitz said of the recount. "We think that's part of the reason the recount should continue — to continue revealing those problems so that the people of Michigan can see how their election operates."

It also got some people's votes counted properly, as the Detroit Free Press reported in Clinton gains 65 votes in Ingham County recount.

Ingham County completed its presidential election recount Wednesday, with Hillary Clinton gaining a net increase of 65 votes over President-elect Donald Trump.

Clinton’s vote total increased by 138 in Ingham County, while Trump gained 73 more votes than were recorded on Election Night, according to the county’s recount report.

Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate who requested Michigan’s statewide recount, lost two votes in Ingham County in the recount. Libertarian Gary Johnson gained two votes, according to the report.

Only 23 of 208 precincts in Ingham County were not recountable.  Meanwhile, Oakland County also finished its recount of Election Day ballots and was working its way through absentee ballots when the order to stop came down.  It found only 26 of 520 precincts not recountable.  Both of those are more acceptable than potentially one-third of Wayne County's precincts.  As I wrote, both Barb Byrum, Ingham County Clerk, and Lisa Brown, Oakland County Clerk, run tight ships, and I'd support either one for Secretary of State in 2018, especially over Janice Winfrey, the Detroit City Clerk, and Cathy M. Garrett, the Wayne County Clerk.

Since I started this week with a song, I'll end it with one, Peggy Lee - The Party's Over.


Regular programming resumes tomorrow.  I might have something on the Michigan Legislature's lame duck session, Al Gore meeting with Donald Trump about climate change, or I might start writing about entertainment awards early.  It depends on how I feel and what material is available.  Stay tuned.

Libertarians achieve 'major party' status in Michigan

I finished Greens win more offices than Libertarians in Michigan by writing "The Libertarians can take some consolation from achieving "major party" status, a topic I'll save for tomorrow."  The Greens may have elected more candidates to office, but the Libertarians won enough votes to play by the same rules as the Democrats and Republicans, at least in this state.  The Detroit News has the story.

Michigan Libertarians received enough votes to have their candidates listed in the next state primary election in August 2018.

Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson earned Tuesday more than the 154,040-vote threshold necessary for the Libertarian Party of Michigan to participate in the August 2018 statewide primary.

The former Republican governor from New Mexico won 172,711 votes in Michigan, or 3.6 percent of the state’s total vote. That’s the largest percentage of votes captured by a third-party candidate since Ross Perot won 9 percent in 1996.

I thought 2016 would be a good year for minor party candidates.  This is yet another sign that it was.

The good news is that the Libertarians will have more visibility.  The voting public will get to see the party's candidates' names on the August primary ballot and the party will likely be eligible to participate in more debates.

The bad news is that this means the party will have to work much harder, as Michigan Radio reports.

[Michigan Libertarian Party Chairman Bill]Gelineau cautions [it] will be a “challenge” for the party to maintain ‘major party’ status.

“We’re going to have to find a candidate that runs for governor [in 2018] who’s going to be able to express those values and rally people to maintain that level,” says Gelineau.

Along with fielding strong candidates, Gelineau says Libertarians will also have to back ballot questions in keeping with their philosophy of believing in free enterprise and the free market system together with a tolerant social policy. He says that would include legalizing marijuana.

That issue would probably be a winner in this state, as it contributed to some of the good news from last week's election.  The problem won't be the legalization vote; I'm sure that will happen.  Instead, it would be qualifying for the ballot.  Doing so is more difficult now than it was just a few years ago.

Speaking of which, major party status and participation in the primaries means that Libertarians will have to qualify their candidates for Governor and the federal and state legislatures by petition instead of by convention.  Ballotpedia lists the number of signatures required depending on the population of the district.   For State House, that's a minimum of 200 signatures.  One candidate could probably collect those.  It gets tougher for U.S. House, where a minimum of 1,000 valid signatures are required.  That isn't guaranteed even for major party candidates, as Thaddeus McCotter found out the hard way in 2012.  The hurdle rests even higher for U.S. Senate and Governor, both of which will require 15,000 signatures.  That's going to be daunting for a party that is used to nominating people at a convention for all offices.

When Gelineau said that the Libertarian party organization would have to change to accomodate major party status, he wasn't kidding.  The Republicans and Democrats have clubs in most medium-sized or larger municipalities (Royal Oak, Southfield, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield each have their own Democratic clubs), and those are where the candidates get a lot of their petitions signed.  I don't know if the Libertarians have that level of local organization.  If they don't, they might need to create it in order to qualify their candidates for the ballot.  That might be interesting to watch.

Newspaper endorsements roll in while comedians laugh at Gary Johnson

I wrote 2016 could be a good year for minor party candidates and then made a prediction of what that would most likely look like.

FiveThirtyEight asked Could An Independent Candidate Succeed In 2016?  Of all the answers to the question, I agreed most with Harry Enten, who said "this year pretty much meets all the criteria for at least a moderately successful third-party candidacy."  For me, that means that the Libertarians and possibly the Greens could reach the threshold of five percent of the popular vote to qualify for public financing in 2020.  The Constitution Party does not have ballot access in enough states to meet that criterion.  It's very unlikely that even one of the minor parties will qualify for the debates with the major party candidates.  As Gary Johnson pointed out, that requires fifteen percent in several polls before the debates.   While minor parties have earned Electoral College votes before, that happened when they had concentrated regional strength, such as the Dixiecrats and the American Independent Party, and could win pluralities in three-party contests.  Neither the Libertarians nor the Greens meet that criterion; their support is more diffuse.  Consequently, none of the minor parties will win the presidency, but they'll certainly overperform compared to any election since 2000 and possibly even 1996, but not 1992.  None of these candidates is Ross Perot.  Even he didn't win any Electoral College votes.

So far, those predictions are panning out.  First, Johnson did not get into the debates, as he did not get 15% in the polls in time.  Second, as of today, FiveThirtyEight projects Johnson will earn 7.6% of the vote in November.  That would be the best showing for a minor party candidate since Perot in 1996, but not better; Perot earned 8.4% in that election.  As I wrote, Johnson is not Perot.  Third, FiveThirtyEight is also predicting only a 2.9% probability that Johnson will earn any electoral votes, most likely in his home state of New Mexico.  My forecast, as far as it went, is coming true.  That written, there are two results of Johnson's success that I didn't foresee, the newspaper endorsements and the comedic reaction.

First, the endorsements.  Politico quoted the Chicago Tribune endorsing Gary Johnson for president and listed Johnson's other endorsements.

“We would rather recommend a principled candidate for president — regardless of his or her prospects for victory — than suggest that voters cast ballots for such disappointing major-party candidates,” the editorial board wrote.

“We reject the cliche that a citizen who chooses a principled third-party candidate is squandering his or her vote,” the endorsement continued. “…We offer this endorsement to encourage voters who want to feel comfortable with their choice. Who want to vote for someone they can admire.”
...
It’s the fifth newspaper endorsement that Johnson, who is polling in the single digits, has received from traditionally right-leaning editorial boards. On Thursday, The Detroit News, which has until this year always endorsed Republican candidates for the presidency, endorsed Johnson. The Libertarian candidate also has received endorsements from the New Hampshire Union-Leader, the Richmond Times-Dispatch and the Winston-Salem Journal.

In contrast, the closest Trump has to a major metropolitain newspaper endorsement comes from the New York Post.  Five endorsements to maybe one.  That's not a result I would have expected, even from the Detroit News.  Speaking of which, WXYZ reported on Detroit News endorses Libertarian Gary Johnson for president.  Roll video!


Get used to that clip.  It will show up again and again over the jump as Stephen Colbert, Seth Meyers, Bill Maher, and Sarah Silverman laugh at Johnson.

Detroit just had its warmest summer on record

For the planet, July 2016 was the hottest month on record yet. Here in Detroit, that helped produce the warmest meteorological summer on record.* Here's the infographic from the National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac, which my wife found for me. Thank you, dear.


We broke the average from 2012. I remember that summer. I wrote about the heat wave and drought throughout the Midwest, along with special attention to record high temperatures here in metro Detroit. That summer followed the warmest meterological spring in Detroit history, including the warmest March. The odd thing is that I don't recall the days being that warm this year. They weren't, as the infographic after the jump shows.

Q-Line/M-1 Rail testing in preparation for 2017 opening

Literally every other day, I've been updating my readers on transportation projects here in metro Detroit that have a sustainability component.  On Saturday, I wrote about the first carpool lane in Michigan as part of I-75 upgrade.  Monday, I reported Regional Transit Millage on November ballot.  Today, it's Q-Line track in Detroit undergoing testing through the fall.  Take it away WXYZ!


The best news about this project comes from the Detroit News...

“Construction progress continues on schedule,” said Paul Childs, chief operating officer of the M-1 Rail. “Speeder tests will be ongoing over the next few weeks, eventually covering the full 6.6 mile track. It’s one of nearly 1,000 tests we’ll be going through over the course of the project.”

...and the Detroit Free Press.

Officials continue to shoot for early 2017 as the start of passenger operations on the line. M-1 Rail on Monday announced that the track installation is 83% complete, station construction 40% complete, traction power substations to provide power for the system is almost 40% complete, overhead catenary system is at 60%, with 85% of poles installed.

Here's to the Q-Line opening on time!

Examiner.com article on Clinton and Kasich endorsements

Hillary Clinton and John Kasich earned the endorsements of both the Detroit News and Detroit Free Press.

Clinton and Kasich endorsed by both Detroit daily newspapers

The Detroit News and Detroit Free Press agree on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and current Ohio Governor John Kasich.  This week, Detroit's major daily newspapers endorsed both candidates for their parties' nominations in advance of Michigan's presidential primary election on March 8.
...
The two papers each had kind words for one other candidate.  The Detroit News said that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida "has considerable promise, and a compelling story."  Of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, The Free Press wrote that they "admire the passion and energy Sanders has brought to his populist crusade, and the often-cartoonish 2016 presidential campaign has benefited immensely from his tenacity in dragging the crucial issues of income inequality and campaign finance to center stage."

As well as agreeing on the merits of Clinton and Kasich, both newspapers agreed on the undesirability of New York real estate developer Donald Trump as a candidate.  The Detroit News predicted "the damage a Trump nomination would do to the Republican Party is incalculable."  The Free Press's assessment was even more dire, writing that if Trump were nominated, "the nation will face an electoral crisis of conscience and morality that it hasn't seen since the 1960s."

More at the link, including quotes from both newspapers in support of Clinton and Kasich and the actual photograph I used along with a video of former President of Mexico Vicente Fox endorsing Clinton over Trump and Sanders.

I know I hinted that I would write about the debate in Examiner.com article on Kasich campaigning in Michigan, but I decided that writing about yoga and penis jokes just didn't appeal to me.  Instead, I fell back into writing about one of the four subjects I like best, endorsements.  The others are polls, local campaign appearances, and minor parties.  I've already written a lot about polls and campaign events.  Since it's too early for the minor parties to make news this cycle, it was time for an endorsement story.

As for what's next, I'm feeling like writing about the protests outside the Fox Theatre last night instead of the debate itself.  Stay tuned.

Green Cruise for 2015

Yesterday was the Ferndale Green Cruise, the environmentally friendly answer to the Dream Cruise.  The Detroit News has the story in Green Cruisers celebrate pedal power, fight pollution.

Just one week away from the largest one-day car cruise in the world, some Metro Detroiters embarked Saturday on a different kind of cruise.

Bicyclists from across the region are rolling down Woodward — and plenty of other roads during the 11th annual Sierra Club Green Cruise.

The event celebrates the various forms of human-powered transit that can help to cut down the use of fossil fuels. It also illustrates the growing popularity of bicycling in Metro Detroit and spotlights efforts to reduce air and water pollution.

“The purpose of the ride is to raise awareness about the fight against climate pollution,” said Jerry Hasspacher, Green Cruise chairman. “We want to cut down the emission of greenhouses gases.”

C&G Newspapers explain more about the event in Ferndale’s Green Cruise promotes bicycling, walking.

“Part of the reason the Green Cruise was originally started and continues to be one week ahead of the Dream Cruise is, certainly, to be looked at as an anti-Dream Cruise,” Co-Chair Tom Dusky said. “This is an alternative to those people who celebrate vintage car travel the following week with providing several bike rides all around the area.”

The Green Cruise was organized for the first time by Royal Oak resident Shirley Bavonese when she became frustrated with the noise and pollution of the Dream Cruise. Along with her children and friends, Bavonese started riding her bike up and down the street, and the next year, the Green Cruise began with the backing of the Sierra Club.
...
“A lot of this has to do with your health and the health of the planet, really,” he said. “The world has really gotten overpopulated now, and the stresses pollution and mankind put on the planet is now beginning to be quite noticeable, with the effects of global warming and the weather patterns, that changing your mode of transportation is a fairly easy change to do, and it makes for a much healthier you.”

So far, there seems to be no video of this year's event, but the Detroit News has a slideshow of the Sierra Club's Green Cruise.  When a video becomes available, I'll post it.  It will be as close as I get to attending, as I missed the event again.  I blame Donald Trump.

Stay tuned for a preview of Dream Cruise as the other half of Entertainment Sunday.

Marijuana legalization may be on the Michigan ballot next year

Michigan roads are terrible but Proposal 1 still in trouble told the tale of a ballot measure that appears likely to fail.  Thanks to Michigan Liberal, I bring a story from the Detroit News about a possible ballot measure next year that will probably succeed, that is, if there aren't three of them that crowd each other off the ballot: 3 Michigan groups seek legal recreational pot use.

The race is on to get legalization of recreational marijuana use in Michigan on the November 2016 ballot — or through the Legislature before then.

Three different groups are considering voter-initiated laws to legalize the cultivation, distribution, sale and personal consumption of cannabis for Michiganians age 21 and older. A state lawmaker from Ann Arbor plans to introduce a marijuana legalization bill this month.

WXYZ has the story about the last effort in Bill pending in state legislature to legalize marijuana.

A new bill from State Representative Jeff Irwin aims to legalize marijuana

Five years ago, I told one of my students that his generation would succeed in doing two things, if nothing else--legalizing both same-sex marriage and marijuana.  So far, events have been proving me right.  The first is sort-of legal in Michigan now and probably will be fully legal by the end of summer.  The second might just happen in Michigan by next year.

Small Business Saturday 2014

Today is Small Business Saturday.  I skipped observing the day specifically last year, covering all the shopping days of the long weekend in KPBS on retail desperation.  This year, I return to KPBS with two videos.  First, Small Business Saturday Keeps Money In the Local Economy.


Next, San Diego Small Businesses Are Banking On Saturday Shoppers.

The Saturday after Thanksgiving is designated Small Business Saturday, a day created by American Express to encourage shoppers to buy local. In San Diego, many businesses are hoping shoppers will spend money at their stores.

That's what the day looks like in San Diego.  Follow over the jump for how it's playing out here in Detroit.

Troy Transit Center opens

A story I've been following since 2011 has come to a happy conclusion; the Troy Transit Center opened.


That was the WXYZ preview.  The Detroit News covered the actual opening in Ceremony celebrates Troy Transit Center opening.

More than 200 people witnessed the ribbon-cutting for the new Troy Transit Center Tuesday, including Brian Smiatacz, 36, who had two kids in tow.

Four-year-old Adam, and Grace, 2, came outfitted with train engineer hats.

"They've been waiting for a year for this to open," Smiatacz said. "We were watching it get built. It took a long time for this to happen."

I've been waiting longer than that.  First, it was voted down by Troy's then Tea Party City Council in 2011.  This embroiled then-Mayor Janice Daniels in a scandal, one that led to a recall effort that was successful.*  As for the transit center, it got a second chance and was finally approved.  It faced a final hurdle, as the ownership of the land it stood on was in doubt.  I'm glad that was settled so the Troy Transit Center finally opened.

Now I can turn my attention to the construction of the M1 streetcar, the other project that got a second chance.  Here's to that story having as happy a conclusion as the transit center!

*I was rooting for the recall from the start.  I thought Daniels was trouble from the very beginning.

Michigan Senate approves pro-wolf-hunt initiative

I described the first shoe dropping in Examiner.com article on wolf hunt and minimum wage proposals.

Board of State Canvassers approves wolf hunt, denies minimum wage

On Thursday, the Michigan Board of State Canvassers decided the fates of two ballot initiatives that had their petitions submitted at the end of May.

The Board unanimously approved the initiative from Citizens for Professional Wildlife Management that would allow the wolf hunt to continue along with funding measures to combat Asian Carp and continue offering free hunting and fishing licenses to active-duty members of the armed services.

They also denied the initiative from Raise Michigan to put a measure on the ballot that would allow voters to vote for an increase in the state's minimum wage to $10.10 per hour on a 3-1 bipartisan vote, citing not enough valid signatures.

Much more about both decisions and the reaction to them at the link.

As I told the readers of Join the Coffee Party Michigan, it's possible that neither will be on the ballot, as the minimum wage measure was turned down, while the pro-hunting measure may be voted into law by the state legislature, bypassing the voters entirely.  Welcome to life in a republic, not a democracy.

That's exactly what appears to be happening, as Kathleen Gray of the Detroit Free Press reported in Wolf hunt can continue after Michigan Senate passes law on August 13, 2014.

LANSING — The issue of hunting wolves in the Upper Peninsula intersected with the historic flooding in Detroit today as the state Senate passed a citizen-initiated law that will allow the hunt to continue.

But the fact that the Senate dealt with the wolf hunt on its only day of the session in August, instead of issues like improving Michigan’s roads and other crucial infrastructure in the wake of the flooding this week, drew the ire of Democrats.

“Democracy is one of the founding principles of our nation, but you continue to treat people like your subjects, rather than your bosses,” said Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, D-East Lansing. “It’s not as if we don’t have serious work we could be doing here today. Metro Detroit is literally under water. Our roads are still falling apart. But on the one day you bother to show up for work this month, you ignore all that and come here to take away the rights of the people to vote again.”

The measure is not law yet, but it could happen this month.

The bill still has to go to the House of Representatives, which expects to take it up on Aug. 27. If lawmakers pass the legislation, it will automatically become law. If they reject it or do nothing, the issue will go on the November general election ballot. The last time the House took up the issue of allowing the hunt, it passed with bipartisan support.

The other shoe has been released.  The only question is whether it hits the floor or is caught in mid-air.  Pay attention to what happens at the major party nominating conventions next week.  The Democrats are likely to consider a resolution against the pro-hunting measure, or at least in favor of allowing the voters to make the decision.  I have no idea what the Republicans are going to do about it.  I suspect that they may be too busy with the credentials of the delegates sent by the district/county conventions to put together a formal motion.  If they do, I'm sure they'll support its passage into law.  In either event, stay tuned.

Examiner.com article about Free Press and News endorsements

Debbie Dingell earned endorsements this week from three Detroit newspapers, the Detroit Free Press, Detroit News, and Michigan Chronicle.
Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Detroit News and Free Press endorse congressional candidates in 2014 primaries

Both the Detroit News and the Detroit Free Press issued their endorsements for congressional candidates in the August 5 primary this weekend, the News on Saturday and the Free Press on Sunday.

Both metropolitan dailies endorsed Debbie Dingell for the Democratic nomination to succeed her husband John in the Twelfth Congressional District, which includes Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, and surrounding areas of eastern Washtenaw County as well as western and southern Wayne County.

The Free Press endorsed incumbent Tim Walberg for the Republican nomination in the Seventh Congressional District, which encompasses western and northern Washtenaw County along with a wide swath of southern Michigan extending from Monroe County to Branch County, as well as the counties of Jackson and Eaton.  The News made no recommendation in the contest.

Both papers also issued endorsements in the Eighth Congressional District, which borders Washtenaw County to the north, and Eleventh Congressional District, which adjoins Washtenaw County to the east.  Each district features intensely contested primaries for both major parties' nominations.

More details about the endorsements, including quotes from both papers' editorials and a response from Debbie Dingell to an earlier endorsement from the Michigan Chronicle and a video report of Dingell's announcement of her candidacy, at the link.

Here are two items that amused me.  The News endorsed Terry Bowman over Stephen Farkas in the Republican primary for the Twelfth Congressional District, even though Farkas is not on the ballot, having withdrawn from the race.  Also, the Free Press gave a very lukewarm endorsement for Walberg, calling his record "lackluster" but then saying he was still better than his opponent.  I bet they endorse Byrnes in the general.  I know I will.