Gold Derby's predictions for variety specials at the Emmy Awards

I closed Gold Derby's predictions for reality programs at the Emmy Awards by telling my readers "I plan on returning with the predictions for Variety Special tomorrow. Stay tuned." Without any further ado, here are the variety special nominees at the 76th Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

• The Apple Music Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show Starring Usher (CBS)
• 66th Grammy Awards (CBS)
• The Greatest Roast of All Time: Tom Brady (Netflix)
• The Oscars (ABC)
• 76th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

I opened Emmy nominees and winners at the Super Bowl — commercials and halftime show by asking and answering a question.

Did you know that when you watch (or watched, depending on when you read this entry) today's Super Bowl, you'll probably see several Emmy nominees and probably an Emmy winner or two? You will, because you did last year and several of the years before that. That's thanks to the commercials and halftime show, which has been a repeat nominee going back as far as Beyoncé's Super Bowl XLVII halftime show, which won Outstanding Lighting Design/Lighting Direction for a Variety Special in 2013.

That came true for two of the Emmy nominees for Outstanding Commercial and it came true for the halftime show itself, which Gold Derby's editors and top 24 users predict will win this category. Six of eleven editors, five of the nine experts, and 20 users voted that it will win this award. Three editors, three experts (these may be the same people, as the two groups overlap), and three users favor The Oscars, while one editor, one lone expert (again, maybe the same person), and one user have ventured that The Greatest Roast Of All Time: Tom Brady could upset both. In addition, one editor who is not an expert thinks The Grammy Awards will win. I'm going with the story I started in February and picking The Apple Music Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show Starring Usher to walk off the Creative Arts Emmy Awards stage with the statuette.

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

• Billy Joel: The 100th — Live at Madison Square Garden (CBS)
• Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer (Netflix)
• Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic (CBS)
• Nikki Glaser: Someday You'll Die (HBO)
• Trevor Noah: Where Was I (Netflix)

Ten editors, four of the nine experts, and 22 users have voted that Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic will win. One editor, three experts, and two users chose Billy Joel: The 100th — Live at Madison Square Garden to walk off the stage with the trophy. Finally, two experts think Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer could win in an upset. I would choose Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic should I register on Gold Derby in time.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

• Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer – Stan Lathan (Netflix)
• Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic – Russell Norman (CBS)
• The Oscars – Hamish Hamilton (ABC)
• Tig Notaro: Hello Again – Stephanie Allynne (Prime Video)
• 76th Annual Tony Awards – Glenn Weiss (CBS)
• Trevor Noah: Where Was I – David Paul Meyer (Netflix)

The Oscars leads among the prognosticators at Gold Derby with ten editors, seven experts, and 18 users in its corner. Two experts and four users voted for Dick Van Dyke: 98 Years of Magic, while one editor and two users selected the 76th Annual Tony Awards to upset. I'll pick The Oscars in this category.

Now for a category to be presented at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

• Alex Edelman: Just for Us – Alex Edelman (HBO)
• Jacqueline Novak: Get on Your Knees – Jacqueline Novak (Netflix)
• John Early: Now More Than Ever – John Early (HBO)
• Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man and the Pool – Mike Birbiglia (Netflix)
• The Oscars – Jamie Abrahams, Rory Albanese, Amberia Allen, Tony Barbieri, Jonathan Bines, Joelle Boucai, Bryan Cook, Blaire Erskine, Devin Field, Gary Greenberg, Josh Halloway, Eric Immerman, Jesse Joyce, Jimmy Kimmel, Carol Leifer, Jon Macks, Mitch Marchand, Gregory Martin, Jesse McLaren, Molly McNearney, Keaton Patti, Danny Ricker, Louis Virtel, and Troy Walker (ABC)

It's a little early for final predictions, so not all the prognosticators at Gold Derby have made their predictions yet, as ten editors, eleven experts, and 13 users have so far picked Alex Edelman: Just for Us, while two experts and three users have chosen The Oscars, one expert and one editor (again, maybe the same person) staked out a long-shot position with Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man and the Pool, and one expert went way out on a limb by picking John Early: Now More Than Ever. I might go against the grain by voting for The Oscars, which should at least win a game of "one of these things is not like the others."

I close with Gold Derby's Editors 2024 Emmy slugfest: Reality, variety and special program categories predictions.

The sun rises in the east and sets in the west - and RuPaul Charles always wins the Emmy for Best Reality Host. A victory for RuPaul for his iconic hit "RuPaul's Drag Race" has literally become as dependable as the behavior of that big ball in the sky. Since 2016, in fact, he hasn't lost, winning the trophy for the category eight consecutive times and gunning for a ninth straight this year. He has, in fact, never lost in the category. Will he keep his perfect record intact?

There is alas evidence that this could be the year he finally meets his match. The predictions in Gold Derby still favor RuPaul by a wide margin - but they've been wrong before. To get a better assessment, Gold Derby senior editors Denton Davidson, Daniel Montgomery and Marcus James Dixon and news and features editor Ray Richmond got together to slug it out with their opinions of how the host race will play out along with several other reality, variety and special program categories that will be decided at both the Creative Arts Emmys on September 7 and 8 and the Primetime Emmy ceremony on September 15. Watch the foursome's colorful debate above.

The opening fits more with Gold Derby's predictions for reality programs at the Emmy Awards but that hasn't turned into a pumpkin yet. That magic should wear off tomorrow night between 8:00 and 11:00 P.M. EDT. In the meantime, I have one more Creative Arts Emmy nominees post planned for TV Movies and music. Stay tuned.

Previous posts about the 76th Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards

• Gold Derby's predictions for Emmy-nominated shows
• How did Gold Derby's Emmy nominations predictions fare?
• Sandy Hook Promise's 'Just Joking' the sole PSA among Emmy nominees for Outstanding Commercial
• 'Beyond Utopia,' ' Going to Mars,' and 'Stamped from the Beginning,' Emmy nominees for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking
• Entertainment and true crime the themes of Emmy nominees for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
• John Oliver debunks 'Migrant Crime' in the middle of covering the RNC on 'Last Week Tonight'
• 'Jon Stewart Debunks GOP’s City Crime Narrative' plus 'The Daily Show's Emmy nominations
• Emmy-nominated 'Desi Lydic Foxsplains Accusations that Republicans are "Weird"' plus the short form Emmy nominees
• Planet Earth III's Emmy nominations for World Lion Day
• Presidential jokes from Stephen Colbert for National Presidential Joke Day
• 'Jeopardy!' and 'Password' favored to win Game Show categories at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• 'Girls State' stands out against field of entertainment nominees for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special at the Emmy Awards
• 'Conan O'Brian Must Go' vs. 'Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates, Jr.' for Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special at the Emmy Awards
• Gold Derby predicts guest actor, guest actress, reality host, and voice-over at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
• Gold Derby's predictions for reality programs at the Emmy Awards