Examiner.com analysis of the November election

Richard Bernstein, shown here in 2011, won his election for Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court.  Getty Images.

Washtenaw County helped Democrats do better in 2014 than in 2010

Despite the loss of the four statewide offices at the top of the ballot, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State, Democrats did much better in November's general election this year than four years ago, when Republican candidates won election to every single statewide office.  This election cycle, Democrats won election to eight statewide offices, nine if one counts Gary Peters' victory over Terri Lynn Land for U.S. Senate, to seven for the Republicans.  Even two of the losing efforts for Democrats, Governor and Attorney General, were closer than four years ago.

Democrats earned wins for two members of the State Board of Education, two University of Michigan Regents, one Michigan State University Trustee, two Wayne State University Governors, and one Michigan Supreme Court Justice.  In addition to Governor, Lieutanant Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State, Republicans were able to put one Michigan State University Trustee and two Michigan Supreme Court Justices into office.

Four years ago, Washtenaw County bucked the statewide trend by giving all but one Democratic nominee majorities or pluralities in a losing effort.  The one Republican nominee who earned a plurality in 2010 was a Supreme Court Justice.  This year, Washtenaw County repeated this pattern, down to giving one Democratic candidate for Supreme Court a plurality, but this time its votes helped Democrats earn their way into office.  In two of these contests, Washtenaw County's voters were able to provide more votes than the candidate's statewide margin of victory.

More at the link in the headline.  Consider this article a follow up to Why the well-off turn out to vote and what happens when they do.

I just celebrated my fifth anniversary writing for Examiner.com.  It would have been a shame to have lost my position by not writing.  I managed to beat the deadline by mere hours.

Examiner.com article on USA Today poll

Michigan Democrats lead in USA Today poll

A poll published Thursday afternoon by USA Today shows Democrats leading in all contests for statewide partisan offices surveyed.  U.S. Representative Gary Peters led former Secretary of State Republican Terri Lynn Land by 9% for U.S. Senate.  Former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer edged Republican incumbent Rick Snyder by 2%.

Farther down the ballot, the poll conducted by Suffolk University continued to show Democrats with more support than Republicans, all of whom are incumbents.  Oakland County Clerk Lisa Brown was well ahead of Republican Brian Calley by 10% for Lieutenant Governor.  Michigan State University professor Mark Totten led Bill Schuette by 7% for Attorney General.  Even Detroit attorney Godfrey Dillard managed a 4% lead over Republican Ruth Johnson.

The poll also looked at the generic Congressional ballot and the 2016 Presidential election.  A plurality said they planned on voting for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate by a margin of nearly 4% this year.  For the Democratic nomination, an overwhelming majority favored Hillary Clinton (60.8%) over Joe Biden (17.45%).  On the Republican side, undecided led at 17.02% with Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee tied for second at 11.17%.

Much more at the link in the headline, including statistics for all candidates, a video about the U.S. Senate contest featuring Terri Lynn Land putting her foot in her mouth over equal pay for women, and summaries of two other polls this week.  One of those polls included a look ahead to the next presidential campaign.

For 2016, poll respondents overwhelmingly favored Clinton over all the potential Republican nominees surveyed.  She would beat Ted Cruz by 14%, both Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee by 12%, Jeb Bush by 11%, and Rand Paul by 10%.

Good news for Democrats, indeed.

Examiner.com--a tale of two conventions

I wrote two articles for Examiner.com about this weekend's elections.  First, Michigan Republicans retain incumbents at 2014 convention.

The specter of previous conventions hung over last Saturday's Michigan Republican State Convention, where an incumbent office-holder such as Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley of Portland losing his position seemed like a distinct possibility.  History was on the side of an upset.

In 2010, incumbent Michigan State University Trustee Don Nugent failed to be re-nominated at that year's convention.  Incumbents were turned out twice at conventions in 2012.  First, State Representative Dave Agema replaced Saul Anuzis as Michigan's representative to the Republican National Committee.  Then, incumbent State Board of Education Member Nancy Danhof lost her seat at the 2012 convention.  Finally, the 2013 convention featured a leadership struggle in which Michigan GOP Chair Bobby Schostak narrowly retained his office against a Tea Party insurgency led by Todd Courser.

Nothing like that came to pass at this year's convention, as Calley's rival Wes Nakagiri of Hartland moved to have Calley re-nominated for Lieutenant Governor by unanimous acclamation, so that the Michigan Republicans can “unite and defeat the Democrats” as quoted by the Detroit Free Press.  All the other incumbent office holders chosen at the convention from Attorney General and Secretary of State to Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court were also renominated unanimously.

For the first time this decade, the GOP convention didn't include a successful RINO hunt.  Darn.

The second was Michigan Democrats nominate candidates at 2014 convention.

The Michigan Democratic Party ended their two-day convention in Lansing on a high note after a first day that evoked one of Will Rogers' best remembered sayings about politics; he was not a member of any organized political party, he was a Democrat.

On Sunday, all of the candidates nominated at the convention, from Lieutenant Governor down to Supreme Court Justice, ran unopposed and were approved unanimously.

In contrast, Saturday's proceedings saw a protest of one Supreme Court Justice over his views on reproductive choice as well as a contested vote for Wayne State University Governor and a delayed and poorly attended vote for State Board of Education.

The news here was that there was an attempt to thwart the nomination of a judge whose credentials as a social liberal were suspect at the same time the party nominated someone known for defending reproductive rights, Lisa Brown.  In the end, the party proved to be a big enough tent for both of them.

Speaking of big tents, what do you see in this photo of the Democratic nominees from Sunday?


What about this analogous picture of the Republican nominees on Saturday?


I'll leave the answers as an exercise for the reader.

Finally, Mark Schauer announces his candidacy

It's already time for a follow-up to Endorsements galore for Democratic candidates at Examiner.com.

Mark Schauer declared his candidacy for Governor on Facebook and Twitter Tuesday.

Schauer declares 'he's in' the race for Michigan Governor

Former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer ended months of speculation Tuesday morning by declaring on Facebook and Twitter that he was running for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2014.

Schauer's announcement on both social media platforms read, "I’m in! Today I’m announcing my campaign for governor. I’m ready to run, I’m ready to work & I’m ready to win."
...
Schauer wasted no time in attacking Governor Snyder's record.   Within a half hour of declaring his candidacy, Schauer tweeted, "Rick Snyder has taken Michigan in the wrong direction - cutting schools & raising taxes on seniors."  A half hour later, he  continued the attack with "Snyder just doesn't get it. It's time to start protecting Michigan's middle class."

In contrast, Schauer tweeted that Michigan needed "an economy that works for everyone — not just the wealthy and not just the special interests."

Schauer's candidacy takes care of a situation Nate Silver pointed out in Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?

Mr. Scott, Mr. Corbett, Mr. LePage and Mr. Snyder — lead states that were carried by President Obama in both 2008 and 2012. All were helped by favorable political winds in 2010 that no longer blow so hard.
...
Mr. Snyder is in a slightly less precarious position in Michigan. His net job approval rating is negative, but in the single digits. The Rothenberg report rates the race as a tossup, but Michigan is rated as leaning Republican by Sabato’s Crystal Ball and as likely Republican by the Cook report. Part of the reason for Mr. Snyder’s relative strength is the lack of significant opposition. No prominent Democrat has announced an intention to run, but if one did, Mr. Snyder’s chances could certainly diminish.

That's now changed.  Schauer counts as a "prominent Democrat" and promises to be "significant opposition."  In fact, his support on Facebook is growing rapidly.  From the Examiner.com article:

Schauer saw rapid growth in his support on his campaign's Facebook page.  By noon, about three hours after declaring his candidacy, his page had 1,000 likes.  At 3:26 P.M, his page hit 2,000 likes.   Between 10:00 P.M and 11:00 P.M. it passed 3,000 likes.  Just before midnight, it exceeded 3,500.

I'm excited already, and the election isn't for a year and a half.