Friday, September 27, 2013

Professor Farnsworth approves of my gas price predictions

It's entries like Gas prices gliding down to begin Autumn that encourage me to make more short-term gas price forecasts.
I made two predictions in Looks like gas prices have dead cat bounces, too.  The first already came true.
Saturday afternoon, the local station had already dropped its price to the Detroit average of $3.53.  Yesterday, it lowered it some more to $3.45, back where it was when this all started.  With that kind of price history, I doubt the three stations down the block moved a cent.  I expect to see all four of them at $3.45 or less this morning when I drive past.
That's exactly where they were, $3.45.

The second still looks good.
As for the relevant average gas prices, the national average is currently $3.49, Michigan is between $3.55 and $3.56, and Detroit is at $3.50.  All of them are going down like parachutes.  In this environment, combined with the neighborhood stations usually selling regular at up to a dime below the Detroit average, I wouldn't be surprised to see them selling gas at $3.39 within a week.
Tuesday morning, all of them dropped their prices to $3.44.  I know, a penny isn't much, but it's exactly the kind of incremental step down I expect right now.
I didn't even have to wait the full week.  Today, all four neighborhood stations were selling regular at $3.39.  I tried to fill up my wife's car at the corner station, but it was too busy, I had hot food in the car, and I was hungry, so I went home to eat.  Tomorrow I plan on filling up both cars to make up for it.

That's not all.
The metro area average is below the previous low, and the statewide average is nearly there, based on the levels I described when the latest dead cat bounce began.
The day I posted Professor Farnsworth, the average prices in the state and metro area bottomed out at $3.46 and $3.48, respectively...
Locally, the dead cat has stopped bouncing and it's about to go thud in the rest of the state.  I eagerly await hearing the echo of it hitting bottom and then sliding downslope for the rest of the year.
According to Econobrowser, both the national and state averages are $3.44 while the Detroit average at $3.41.  The sound you hear is a distant thud followed by sliding.

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