Sunday, March 27, 2022

Beyond The Trailer vs. Gold Derby predictions of tonight's Oscar winners

The Academy Awards are today and I'm feeling the same way I did when I wrote CNBC explores 'Why The Future Of The Oscars And Emmys Might Be In Jeopardy'.
I'd normally be all awards shows all the time now, just like I was before the Emmy Awards, but I'm just not feeling it. Yes, I'll get to the posts about "Flee" and "Dune" I promised in Trevor Noah, Joy Reid, and Tiffany Cross interview Questlove, director of Oscar-nominated documentary 'Summer of Soul', but, like the declining viewership for awards shows in general, my interest is starting to wane mostly because those posts might be more work than I want to put in today...
I sort of got to "Dune" in 'Shang-Chi' vs. 'Spider-Man' among movie nominees at the 2022 Critics Choice Super Awards, when I wrote "'Dune' all the way" for Best Science Fiction/Fantasy Movie, which it won along with Best Actress in a Science Fiction/Fantasy Movie for Rebecca Ferguson. I'll likely have more on "Dune" when it wins some Oscars and definitely when it is nominated at the Saturn Awards. I'm not sure about "Flee," which won't likely win Animated Feature or International Film tonight. I think it's best shot is upsetting "Summer of Soul" for Documentary Feature. On the other hand, Grace Randolph of Beyond The Trailer has a higher opinion of its chances for Animated Feature than I do. Watch Oscars 2022 PRE-SHOW - Last Minute Predictions, Nominations, Winners!

I think Grace has a good sense of how Hollywood politics influence the nominees, although the word I'd use is egalitarian instead of democratic for voting to spread the awards around (the documentary branch is definitely like that by not nominating films by previous winners), but she lets her taste override her reading of the tastes of the Academy voters. As I write often about awards shows, electorates matter. Speaking of her taste, she's notorious for not being a fan of Jessica Chastain, but Grace was very complimentary of Chastain's performance in "The Eyes of Tammy Faye." Huh.

On the other hand, Joyce Eng of Gold Derby has a very clear and objective view of the nominees, which she displays in 2022 Oscars winner predictions slugfest: Our experts make their final picks in all 23 categories.

The Oscars are not presenting all 23 categories on the main ceremony, but Gold Derby editors and Experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng are here to present all 23 of their final predictions.
In case my readers don't want to watch an hour-long video for all 23 predictions, here are Joyce's choices from the Gold Derby website.
Best Picture: The Power of the Dog
Best Director: Jane Campion
Best Actress: Penelope Cruz
Best Actor: Will Smith
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur
Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA
Best Original Screenplay: Don't Look Up
Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design: Cruella
Best Film Editing: tick, tick... Boom!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Production Design: Nightmare Alley
Best Score: Dune
Best Song: No Time to Die
Best Sound: Dune
Best Visual Effects: Dune
Best Animated Feature: Encanto
Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
Best International Film: Drive My Car
Best Animated Short: Robin Robin
Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball
Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye
Looking up and down this list, I only see two categories where Joyce has a good likelihood of getting it wrong, Best Actress, which I think is the most up-in-the-air acting category, and Production Design, where I think "Dune" has a good chance of winning. Other than that, I agree with her.

That's as much as I want to think about tonight's show today. May the most worthy nominees win

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