Monday, March 27, 2023

Vox and CNBC explain 'Why China's population is shrinking' and 'What [it] Means For The Global Economy'

I made a note to myself in the middle of 'SNL' drags George Santos in its first show of 2023.
While I mentioned India's population passing China's in U.N. estimates that the human population passed 8 billion, I don't recall any prediction that China's population was already declining. A decrease of more than 800,000? I'll have to blog about that!
Vox gave me the opportunity to follow through by uploading Why China's population is shrinking today.

And why that’s a big deal.
For the first time in six decades, China’s population is shrinking, and it’s predicted it could create a demographic crisis. That’s because China isn’t just shrinking, it’s also aging. And the majority of Chinese couples are not considering having more than one child. Because of this, China is predicted to lose nearly 50 percent of its population by 2100.

China’s population decline can be traced back to the restrictive family-planning policies launched in the 1970s and an impressive economic boom fueled by China’s huge labor force.
China’s modernization brought rapid urbanization, rising income levels, and better education to large parts of China. Combined, these policies and growth have given China one of the lowest birth rates in the world.

Today, China is trying to reverse its population decline. Not just because an aging population is hard to sustain economically, but because China’s impressive economic growth, until now, has relied on its people. As China’s population challenges deepen over time, it might have to rethink how to grow its economy and care for its citizens.
I am in the middle of lecturing about human population in my Environmental Science class and described China's one-child policy on Thursday and this video fits right in. I think I'll show this video to my class as an update tomorrow night and replace the video I embedded in China ends one child policy in my slideshow. Welcome to blogging as professional development.

Vox explained what its shrinking population means to China. CNBC examined how it affects the rest of the world in What China's Shrinking Population Means For The Global Economy.

China remains home to 1.4 billion people. But that number is getting smaller.

The country's National Bureau of Statistics reported China's population slipped to 1.412 billion last year from 1.413 billion in 2021. The last time China saw negative population growth was in the 1960s.

Many experts believe that China's one-child policy, introduced in the 1980s, is one of the main reasons for the population decline.
I've been worried about China passing the U.S. to become the dominant global power and have advocated for cooperation, which I labeled The CoDominion. My long-time commenters Nebris and Infidel753 have been skeptical of this happening for political, social, and cultural reasons. They didn't convince me because I'm a scientist and I need something more concrete. China's population decline provides that concrete support. Now I'm less worried about China passing the U.S. to become number one.

What about India? Frankly, I think I'd be happier with a world where India is in charge. It will also take longer, as India currently has the fifth largest GDP, passing the United Kingdom, and is projected to pass Germany by 2027 and Japan to reach third by 2030. The three most populous nations will then have the three largest economies, although in reverse order. I can live with that.

Enough serious news and analysis. Stay tuned for some comedy tomorrow.

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