Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Marianne Williamson and Nikki Haley, two women running for President on International Women's Day

Happy International Women's Day! For this year's celebration, I'm returning to the themes of 2018 and 2019, women running for high office. Unlike 2019, when a record six women were running for President, only two have announced their candidacies so far, Marianne Williamson challenging Joe Biden and Nikki Haley challenging Donald Trump (and probably Ron DeSantis, who is almost certainly running but hasn't announced his candidacy yet). Both face steep uphill battles in their quests to earn their parties' nominations. Follow over the jump as I cover both of them.

I last featured Williamson in Wave good-bye to Williamson as she drops out, where I recycled what I wrote in Democratic candidates continue to drift leftwards according to On The Issues about her ideological position according to On The Issues.
Marianne Williamson has also continued to move to the left, as her economic score is now 10, three to the left of the 13 she rated in July. Since her social score of 90 is 2 points more liberal than Elizabeth Warren, it places her one place closer to the left end of the spectrum than the Senator from Massachusetts to make her the fourth most liberal candidate in the contest. As I snarked in a comment to Final Voyage at Kunstler's blog, "I'm not surprised. Charlie Pierce wrote on Twitter that her campaign was like a lava lamp running for President."
Even though Warren and Williamson shared a spot on the Nolan Grid, even as Williamson inched to the left again with an economic score of 8 as her social score remained at 90, while Warren outflanked her to the left with an economic score of 5 and a social score of 88, I could not bring myself to make a graphic with both of them on it. Now, I won't have to. I'm relieved.
Williamson's ideological scores at On The Issues remain where they were three years ago, an economic score of 8 and a social score of 90, making her a Hard-Core Liberal according to the site's ratings. This puts her to the left of Biden, who has an economic score of 13 and a social score of 75. As the panel at FiveThirtyEight points out, there's a lane there for Williamson, but they strongly doubt she's the candidate to take advantage of it. Watch as they ask Could Biden Be Vulnerable In A Primary?

In part 1 of this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses author Marianne Williamson’s official bid in the 2024 Democratic primary. With multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats don’t want President Biden to run for reelection, the gang ask whether or not he might be vulnerable against the right challenger?
I'm with the panel; if Biden actually becomes vulnerable to a primary challenge, he would attract someone like Gavin Newsom to enter the contest. That would be a mistake if TFG is the Republican nominee again, but maybe not if DeSantis is. I think Newsom and DeSantis match up better than either Newsom and Trump or Biden and DeSantis. Still, I don't think Biden will fail be be renominated if he actually runs. Party discipline is not only much stronger in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, it's stronger than it was when i joined in 2004. As I wrote in 'SNL' shares scary news for Halloween 2022, "Re-nominating Joe Biden might be scary, but all the other potential candidates mentioned were even scarier, so back to Biden we go. I'm OK with that."

Now for Nikki Haley at On The Issues. She has an economic score of 88 and a social score of 25. On The Issues describes her as a Libertarian-Leaning Conservative. This makes her less conservative socially than either TFG or DeSantis, but to the right of both economically. TFG has an economic score of 83 and a social score of 20, while DeSantis has an economic score of 85 and a social Score of 13. On The Issues considers both of them to be Hard-Core Conservatives.*

FiveThirtyEight also examined Haley's chances in Nikki Haley Has Tough Competition In Trump And DeSantis.

This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. She is a former state legislator and two term governor of South Carolina and former ambassador to the U.N. under Trump. If she were to win the nomination, she would be the first woman and first Asian American to lead the Republican ticket. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls.
This was even more informative than FiveThirtyEight asks 'Who is Nikki Haley?' FiveThirtyEight takes Haley's chances more seriously than Williamson's. Haley is an experienced politician with a more moderate image because of her social stances than either TFG or DeSantis. That said, they're not optimistic about her chances. I think that her biggest fans are those least likely to vote in a Republican primary, just like many of Williamson's supporters aren't likely to vote in a Democratic primary.

Stay tuned for a non-holiday post tomorrow, followed by anniversaries of the pandemic arriving in Michigan and the Fukushima triple disaster.

*DeSantis also served in Congress, so he has a VoteView score. I'll make graphics for him and TFG in time for the Republican debates. I've already made one for Joe Biden.

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