A blog about societal, cultural, and civilizational collapse, and how to stave it off or survive it. Named after the legendary character "Crazy Eddie" in Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's "The Mote in God's Eye." Expect news and views about culture, politics, economics, technology, and science fiction.
The United States Navy (USN) is the United States Armed Forces’ naval warfare service branch and one of the seven uniformed services of the United States.
The U.S. Navy is currently the largest, most powerful navy in the world, with the highest combined battle fleet tonnage. The service has over 340,000 personnel on active duty and more than 71,000 in the Navy Reserve.
Seven uniformed services? Actually eight, in addition to the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, Coast Guard, and Space Force, there are the Public Health Service Commissioned Corps and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Commissioned Officer Corps (NOAA Corps).
RuPaul's Drag Race leads nominations with nine (eleven for the franchise), followed by six for The Traitors, five each for Dancing with the Stars and Survivor, and four for Top Chef. The prognosticators at Gold Derby orders the top two like they did last year, when I wrote 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win again. Every editor, 95.2% of experts, and 93.5% of users think The Traitors will threepeat. The fans and the professionals diverge on the next most likely, with 4.3% of users rooting for RuPaul's Drag Race to upset, while the remaining 4.8% of experts and 1.8% of users selecting Survivor. Dude, I used to be such a big Survivor fan that I was a moderator of a reality TV forum; I get it, but it's not happening this year. Top Chef trails with the last 0.4% of users, while no one is picking Dancing with the Stars.
By the time of the live televised awards, every expert and editor along with 95.9% of users had consolidated around The Traitors, Survivor sat in second with 1.9% of users, RuPaul's Drag Race dropped to third with 1.6%, 0.6% of users moved to Dancing with the Stars, and Top Chef lost all of its support. All the professionals and the overwhelming majority of users got it right. Watch Reality Competition Program: 78th Emmys.
Alan Cumming and the team behind The Traitors accept the Emmy for Outstanding Reality Competition Program at the 78th Emmys.
Yes, it is amazing how a show about treachery and betrayal can bring people together, but not surprising if one is a reality show fan like I was. Survivor did the same thing a quarter century ago. Also, thanks to Cumming for reminding the audience to register to vote. I've been slacking on that.
On the 1st of September, Drexel University made the announcement that they plan to permanently close the Academy of Natural Sciences; the oldest natural history museum in all of the Americas. The news came as a shock to everyone from locals to the the staff of the museum themselves who learned about closure on the same day as everyone else. Now the fate of this historic institution and the millions of rare and valuable artifacts within it hang in the balance. Join me as we fight back against this attack on science and help save the Academy.
...
HOW TO SAVE THE ACADEMY:
Step 1: Go to this link https://save-the-academy.org/...
The page at the link urges people to complete five actions, the first of which is sign a petition.
I've signed and so have 108,090 others. The last on the list is "share your story." That's what this blog is about. I'm recycling part of a comment I left on George Morgan Davis (1938 – 2024): The Director’s Cut to kick off my personal story.
On the one hand, may George Davis rest in peace. I have at least one story about the Council of Systematic Malacologists, where I first met George, and the San Diego Natural History Museum that I did not want to commit to paper or pixels while he was alive. On the other, the same instincts that guided George in that tale would be useful. Have you heard that Drexel University, which took over the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia and turned it into the Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University, has decided to shut it down by the end of the month? If George were still with us, he'd be fighting that decision. I located your blog and the PDF you linked to while searching to see if George was still around. He's not, but I'm glad I found your blog.
When I wrote "Sometimes, people with less than pure motives get results, a topic on my to-do list," in 'Mr. Scorsese' and 'The Librarians' both Emmy winners, George Davis, who was curator of malacology at the Academy of Natural Sciences when I knew him in the late 1980s and early 1990s, was one of the people I was thinking about. Now's not the time to tell that story.*
Instead, I'm telling another story, that of Joseph Leidy, who "named the holotype specimen of Hadrosaurus foulkii, which was recovered from the marl pits of Haddonfield, New Jersey" and "also described the holotype specimens of Arctodus (A. pristinus), the dire wolf (Aenocyon dirus), and the American lion (Panthera atrox), among many others." I have connections to all these extinct animals, which Leidy described at the Academy of Natural Sciences.
One of the fiberglass dinosaurs at Pre-Historic Forest, where I worked as a tour guide and consultant, was Hadrosaurus foulkii. It was the high point, literally, as its statue stood at the top of the trail, of the walking tour. I could have used more information about the creature as the first dinosaur described from the United States. It would have been been more informative than making a bad joke about New Jersey (If it were described today, it might have been called Sopranosaurus, to which a heckler once responded "What about Hoffasaurus?" My retort was "You know where you can find Jimmy Hoffa? In the Yellow Pages under concrete." That joke has extra resonance now that I live three miles from where he disappeared.)
I've mentioned several times that I did my M.S. research at Rancho La Brea, where Arctodus in the form of A. simus), the dire wolf (Aenocyon dirus), and the American lion (Panthera atrox all occur. I haven't mentioned Actodus, known as the giant short-faced bear, on this blog before, but I have written about direwolves and American lions, so both are still relevant to me 40 years later. It would be a huge loss to science that I would feel personally if anything happened to the holotypes of these organisms, especially if it were because the museum closed and the specimens were lost.
I could go on with the stories of Edward Drinker Cope, Thomas Say, and Henry Augustus Pilsbry, all of whom were important scientists who worked in my areas of expertise and all of whom did their research at the Academy of Natural Sciences, but it's time to wrap up this post. Maybe later.
The Academy of Natural Sciences has an offer from the William Penn Foundation to keep its doors open for at least one year, but Drexel University, who owns the museum, said it is still deciding what the historic museum’s future will be, NBC10’s Andrew Rowan has the story.
When I signed the petition, I added the comment that Drexel should accept the William Penn Foundation's offer. I'll tell the university president and head of the board of directors the same thing. I hope my readers do, too.
The nominees for Outstanding Drama Series are The Diplomat, The Pitt, Slow Horses, The Gilded [Age], A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, Paradise, Pluribus, Your Friends & Neighbors.
The Pitt has a dozen nominations in six categories pending at Monday's ceremony plus four Creative Arts Emmy Awards, five if one counts Inside The Pitt, winner of Outstanding Short Form Nonfiction or Reality Series as a tiebreaker. Pluribus has six Primetime Emmy nominations in six categories plus four Creative Arts Emmys. They are followed by Slow Horses and The Diplomat with five nominations, Paradise with four nominations and one Creative Arts Emmy Award, Task with four nominations, The Gilded Age with three nominations, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms with one nomination and one Creative Arts Emmy, and Your Friends & Neighbors with one nomination.
Unlike their reactions to the multiple wins by Widow's Bay and DTF St. Louis at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, Gold Derby's prognosticators maintained the odds of the existing favorites, The Pitt and Pluribus, depending on the category. Every expert and editor along with 94.1% of users predicts The Pitt will repeat as Outstanding Drama Series. Pluribus is the pick of 5.2% of users, while the rest of the nominees have 0.4% or fewer users behind each.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series are Carrie Coon, Chase Infiniti, Keri Russell, Rhea Seehorn and Zendaya.
Every editor, 84.6% of experts, and 84.4% of users agree with me that this is Rhea Seehorn's award to lose and has been since December. Keri Russell has captivated the remaining 15.4% of experts and 13.0% of users, followed by Zendaya with 2.1% of users. Carrie Coon has 0.3% user support while Chase Infiniti brings up the rear with 0.1%.
The nominees for Lead Actor in a Drama Series are Sterling K. Brown, Gary Oldman, Mark Ruffalo, Rufus Sewell and Noah Wyle.
Every expert and editor plus 95.3% of users are acclaiming Noah Wyle to repeat. Mark Ruffalo is a distant second with 2.5% of users, followed by Gary Oldman with 1.2%, Sterling K. Brown with 0.9%, and Rufus Sewell with 0.1%.
Four actresses from The Pitt earning nominations in this category could result in massive vote splitting that could allow a nominee from another series to slip on through. The other outcome is that the voters look at the nominees side-by-side and decide on the best one. That's what Gold Derby thinks will happen, as a fairly consistent 80.8% of both experts and users along with 88.9% of editors expect Katherine LaNasa will return to the stage, followed by 11.5% of experts and 9.4% of users who suspect Sepideh Moafi will upset, then 11.1% of editors and 5.9% of users captivated by Karolina Wydra, then the remaining 7.7% of experts and 1.8% of users who anticipate Allison Janney will be the best TV president. Taylor Dearden has the support of 1.1% of users, followed by Julianne Nicholson with 0.7%, then Fiona Dourif with 0.2%.
Every editor, 57.7% of experts, and 62.7% of users have picked Patrick Ball to win. On the other hand, 34.6% of experts and 27.4% of users think Tom Pelphrey will take home the Emmy, giving Task the best chance for a drama series other than The Pitt or Pluribus to win an Emmy tomorrow. The remaining 7.7% of experts along with 5.6% of users selected Shawn Hatosy to upset. No, he's not better than Ball, although I think he and the night shift deserve their own spinoff series. They look like fun. The rest of the user vote splits among Billy Crudup at 2.1%, Carlos-Manuel Vesga at 1.0%, Jack Lowden at 0.7%, and Gerran Howell at 0.6%.
The Gilded Age: "My Mind Is Made Up" – Salli Richardson-Whitfield (HBO)
Paradise: "Exodus" – Hanelle Culpepper (Hulu)
The Pitt: "12:00 P.M." – Noah Wyle (HBO Max)
Pluribus: "We Is Us" – Vince Gilligan (Apple TV)
Slow Horses: "Scars" – Saul Metzstein (Apple TV)
Task: "Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing, there is a river." – Salli Richardson-Whitfield (HBO)
Professional opinion is split on the top two in this category with the users breaking a virtual tie in favor of Vince Gilligan and Pluribus, which has the support of 65.4% of experts, 44.4% of editors, and 74.2% of users, while The Pitt's support consists of 34.6% of experts, 55.6% of editors, and 22.6% of users. Task follows with 1.9%, then The Gilded Age and Slow Horses tied at 0.6%, with Paradise bringing up the rear at 0.1%.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
The Diplomat: "Amagansett" – Peter Akerman and Debora Cahn (Netflix)
The Pitt: "1:00 P.M." – Kirsten Pierre-Geyfman and R. Scott Gemmill (HBO)
The Pitt: "12:00 P.M." – Valerie Chu (HBO)
Pluribus: "We Is Us" – Vince Gilligan (Apple TV)
Slow Horses: "Scars" – Will Smith (Apple TV)
Task: "A Still Small Voice" – Brad Ingelsby (HBO)
Professional opinion is much more united behind Vince Gilligan and Pluribus for his writing, as every editor and 80.0% of experts along with 80.1% of users expect Gilligan will escape the podium with the statuette. The next choice among experts at 8.0% and users at 10.9% is the "12:00 P.M." of The Pitt. Slow Horses also has 8.0% of experts and 6.7% of users. The "1:00 P.M." episode of The Pitt picked up the remaining 4.0% of experts along with 0.7% of users. The Diplomat and Task split the rest of the user vote at 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively.
Follow over the jump for the Creative Arts Emmys won by The Pitt and Pluribus.
The nominees for Outstanding Comedy Series are Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Hacks, Margo's Got Money Troubles, Nobody Wants This, Only Murders In The Building, Shrinking and Widow's Bay.
Widow's Bay was the big winner Sunday night, taking home eight Emmys. It also has seven nominations at next Monday's Primetime Emmy Awards, tying it with Hacks, which only earned one Emmy on Sunday. Abbott Elementary follows with six pending nominations but no wins, then Shrinking with five nominations, Margo's Got Money Troubles with four nominations pending and three wins, The Bear with three nominations and one win, Only Murders in the Building with two nominations, and Nobody Wants This with only this one.
Gold Derby's prognosticators reacted to Widow's Bay's Creative Arts Emmy Awards eight wins the same way they did to DTF St. Louis winning six Emmy Awards, elevating it over the prior favorite, Hacks. The latest odds have improved 26% for Widow's Bay while they've dropped 24% for Hacks, as 87.0% of experts, 70.0% of editors, and 65.8% of users are now voting for Widow's Bay, while 13.0% of experts. 30.0% of editors, and 32.7% of users are sticking with Hacks. The remaining 1.5% of users have made long-shot bets on the rest of the nominees, 0.4% each for Abbott Elementary and The Bear (lo, how the mighty have fallen!), 0.3% each for Margo's Got Money Troubles and Only Murders in the Building, and 0.1% for Nobody Wants This. No one picked poor Shrinking.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series are Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri, Elle Fanning, Lisa Kudrow and Jean Smart.
Meanwhile, the Gold Derby odds have actually improved for Jean Smart by 2% this week as every editor, 91.7% of experts, and 92.1% of users expect she will repeat for her final turn at the role. Speaking of final turns, the remaining 8.3% of experts along with 5.6% chose Lisa Kudrow for her final season of The Comeback. The rest of the users distributed their picks among Saturn Award winner Elle Fanning with 1.4%, Quinta Brunson with 0.8%, and Ayo Edebiri with 0.2%.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series are Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Steve Carell, Matthew Rhys, Jason Segel, and Martin Short.
On the other hand, the odds for Matthew Rhys increased 2% this week as every editor and expert along with 95.5% of users expect he will walk away from the podium with his second Emmy (he's likely to get a third for the show as a producer). Martin Short is the users' second choice with 3.0%, followed by Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Jason Segal tied at 0.6%, then Steve Carell with the final 0.3%.
The Gold Derby odds for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series had been close until Sunday, but that night's results caused Kate O'Flynn to fly high above Hannah Einbeinder, as O'Flynn's chances rose 16%, while Einbeinder's dropped 14% and Janelle James' odds sank 2% with hers. O'Flynn is now the choice of 83.3% of experts, 60.0% of editors and 74.3% of users, while Einbeinder retains 12.5% of experts, 30.0% of editors, and 21.7% of users. James has the remaining 4.2% of experts plus 2.5% of users. Professional and user opinion splits on the rest of the field, as the last 10.0% of experts but only 0.4% of users decided Dale Dickey deserves the Emmy, while 1.1% of users made Michelle Pfeiffer their choice. No one is picking Megan Stalter or Jessica Williams.
Harrison Ford's odds dropped 8% this week pulling Paul W. Downs 3% with him while Stephen Root's chances rose 11%. Even so, Ford still leads with the support of 58.3% of experts, 20.0% of editors, and 57.2% of users, while Root is gaining as the choice of 80.0% of editors, 25.0% of experts, and 33.9% of users. Gold Derby's editors really like Widow's Bay. Downs' chances depend on retaining 12.5% of experts and 4.7% of users. Professionals and amateurs diverge on fourth on the odds, as 4.2% of experts but only 0.4% of users count Colman Domingo in, while 3.1% of users opt for Nick Offerman. Tyler James Williams' chances also fell 1% this week as he now has the votes of 0.5% of users, while Michael Urie retains the support of 0.1% of users.
Those are all the nominees in front of the camera. Follow over the jump for all the nominees behind the camera and the winners on Sunday night.
As Cohen pointed out, it's the only award he's likely to get from the Television Academy, unless they decide to give him an honorary one for lifetime achievement. Fat chance.
Time to revisit the prediction for South Park's category.
Outstanding Animated Program
Bob's Burgers: "Grand Pre-Pre-Pre-Opening" (Fox)
Rick and Morty: "There's Something About Morty" (Adult Swim)
The Simpsons: "Homer? A Cracker Bro?" (Fox)
Smiling Friends: "Le Voyage Incroyable de Monsieur Grenouille" (Adult Swim)
South Park: "Sermon on the 'Mount" (Comedy Central)
Star Wars: Visions: "BLACK" (Disney+)
South Park leads with three nominations, followed by Star Wars: Visions with one nomination and a win, The Simpsons with two nominations, and Bob's Burgers, Rick and Morty, and Smiling Friends with just this one nomination. Gold Derby's prediction page for the Creative Arts Emmy Awards also has South Park leading, as every editor, 90.9% of experts, and 92.6% of users believe it will win with professional and user opinion split among the rest of the nominees with the remaining 9.1% of experts and 1.7% of users selecting Smiling Friends while Bob's Burgers and The Simpsons tied at 2.5% of users each, followed by Rick and Morty with the final 0.8% of users.
I had to look up Eric Bauza, the presenter, after watching his introduction. He's a worthy successor to Mel Blanc, as well as an Emmy winner in his own right. Also, congratulations to Trey Parker and all the rest of the cast and crew of South Park!
That's a wrap for today's installment. I plan on returning to Emmy coverage on Saturday because tomorrow is the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Stay tuned.
Previous posts about the 2026 Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards
The nominees for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series are All Her Fault, The Beast in Me, Beef, DTF St. Louis and Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette.
Before the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, Beef led the Gold Derby odds to win this category. Now, DTF St. Louis leads as the choice of 56.5% of experts, 87.5% of editors, and 61.5% of users, while Beef retains 43.5% of experts, 12.5% of editors, and 36.1% of users. All Her Fault, which I had penciled in as an early favorite for this category, is running far behind with 1.1% of users. The Beast in Me and Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette tie for fourth with 0.6% of users each.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie are Riz Ahmed, Jason Bateman, Charlie Hunnam, Oscar Isaac and Matthew Rhys.
Oscar Issac is down 3% in the Gold Derby odds, but is still the choice of 69.6% of expers, 50.0% of editors, and 76.7% of users. Matthew Rhys gained 3% and now has the votes of 21.7% of experts, 37.5% of editors, and 18.5% of users. Rhys could win two Emmys next Monday, as he's favored to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for Widow's Bay, but it's not likely. Riz Ahmed is third as the pick of 8.7% of experts, 12.5% of editors, and 1.7% of users. He's followed by Jason Bateman who has the support of 2.1% of users for his final chance to win an Emmy at these awards and Charlie Hunnam with 1.0% of users.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie are Claire Danes, Sally Field, Carey Mulligan, Sarah Pidgeon and Sarah Snook.
...Carey Mulligan leads as the choice of 70% of experts, 50% of editors, and 69.7%, but the professionals and fans differ on the next choice, with 10% of experts, 33.3% of editors, and 7.1% of users picking Sally Fields while 10% of experts and 17.3% of users [are] selecting Sarah Snook. Sarah Pigeon also has the support of 10% of experts along with 16.7% of editors and 4.8% of users. Claire Danes is the choice of the remaining 1% of users.
Mulligan is down 10% but retains the votes of 52.2% of experts, 37.5% of editors, and 58.4% of users. The professionals and fans still disagree on the next choice, as 21.7% of experts, 37.5% of editors, and 9.1% of users have gravitated to Fields to raise her odds 2%, while 18.0% of users, 17.4% of experts and 12.5% of editors are now picking Pigeon, raising her odds 11%. Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette winning Outstanding Limited Series and Movie Casting was going to benefit someone and that's Pigeon. Snook's chances decreased by 4% as despite gaining the votes of 12.5% of editors because she her support among experts and users dropped to 8.7% and 14.1%, respectively. Daines' odds also decreased as she retained the support of 0.5% of users.
Those are the categories still to be awarded. Follow over the jump for the winners this past Sunday. when DTF St. Louis won six Emmys, Beef won three, and The Beast in Me, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette, and Remarkably Bright Creatures tied at one each.
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show (Disney+)
Wicked: One Wonderful Night (NBC)
The Muppet Show and Wicked: One Wonderful Night co-lead with six nominations each, followed by Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show with five, Nikki Glaser: Good Girl with three, and Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... with two. Gold Derby's prediction page for the Creative Arts Emmy Awards also has The Muppet Show leading with 90% of experts, 33.3% of editors, and 71.3% of users electing it to win. They reverse Wicked: One Wonderful Night and Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show as the latter has the vote of the remaining 10% of experts and 66.7% of editors plus 18.0% while the former only has the support of 8.2% of users. The professionals are split! The users also reverse Nikki Glaser: Good Girl and Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... with the former ranked fifth at 0.8% and the latter in fourth with 1.6%.
The editors and experts equalized at 77.8% each making The Muppet Show their first choice along with 72.3% of users by the eve of the awards, on bulk a consolidation of opinion. The remaining 22.2% of editors and experts plus 19.5% of users stuck with Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show, while Wicked: One Wonderful Night retained 5.5% of users, followed by 2.2% determining that Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... would win and 0.4% naming Nikki Glaser: Good Girl as the victor. As the majority predicted, The Muppet Show won. Watch as The Muppet Show Wins for Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) 78th Emmys by the Television Academy.
I'm returning to the Emmy Awards by examining the remaining nominees for limited and anthology series that have Gold Derby odds at the the Creative Arts Emmy Awards. I'm following Gold Derby's order of categories beginning with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Linda Cardellini – DTF St. Louis as Carol Love-Smernitch (HBO)
Dakota Fanning – All Her Fault as Jenny Kaminski (Peacock)
Laurie Metcalf – Monster: The Ed Gein Story as Augusta Gein (Netflix)
Joy Sunday – DTF St. Louis as Jodie Plumb (HBO)
Youn Yuh-jung – Beef as Chairwoman Park (Netflix)
Constance Zimmer – Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette as Ann Messina Freeman (FX)
Linda Cardellini leads as the selection of 93.8% of experts, 66.7% of editors, and 87.7% of users. As has commonly been the case, the professionals and the amateurs disagree on which nominees have the next best odds. Constance Zimmer, who I've been a fan of since she was in UnREALten years ago, is the professionals' second choice with 6.3% of experts and 33.3% of editors, but only 2.6% of users; Youn Yuh-jung is the users' choice with 7.8% of them voting for her to win. Laurie Metcalf earned 1.1% of the users, followed by Dakota Fanning with 0.7%, and Joy Sunday with none.
Gold Derby also thinks that an actor from DTF St. Louis will win this award, too, as 87.5% of experts, 88.9% of editors, and 82.8% of users expect David Harbour will walk off the stage with the Emmy this weekend. Charles Melton and Richard Gadd split the remaining expert vote at 6.3% each with the users breaking the tie in favor of Melton with 11.9% while Gadd has the support of 3.4%. Nick Offerman is fourth according to the users with 1.1% of their votes. Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins split the remaining user vote at 0.4% each with the rest of the experts breaking the time this time as the choice of the last 11.1%.
Follow over the jump for the categories recognizing the contributors behind the camera.
The nominees for Reality Competition Program are Dancing With the Stars, RuPaul's Drag Race, Survivor, Top Chef and The Traitors.
RuPaul's Drag Race leads nominations with nine (eleven for the franchise), followed by six for The Traitors, five each for Dancing with the Stars and Survivor, and four for Top Chef. The prognosticators at Gold Derby orders the top two like they did last year, when I wrote 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win again. Every editor, 95.2% of experts, and 93.5% of users think The Traitors will threepeat. The fans and the professionals diverge on the next most likely, with 4.3% of users rooting for RuPaul's Drag Race to upset, while the remaining 4.8% of experts and 1.8% of users selecting Survivor. Dude, I used to be such a big Survivor fan that I was a moderator of a reality TV forum; I get it, but it's not happening this year. Top Chef trails with the last 0.4% of users, while no one is picking Dancing with the Stars.
Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality Competition Program
RuPaul Charles – RuPaul's Drag Race (MTV)
Alan Cumming – The Traitors (Peacock)
Kristen Kish – Top Chef (Bravo)
Ariana Madix – Love Island USA (Peacock)
Jeff Probst – Survivor (CBS)
Alan Cumming won last year and Gold Derby expects he will win again as the choice of every editor, 92.3% of experts, and 91.9% of users. The professionals and fans split on the next two with 7.7% of experts and 1.9% of fans choosing RuPaul Charles while 5.0% of users picked Jeff Probst. Kristen Kish and Ariana Madix divide the remaining users at 0.6% each. By the way, I predicted "Love Island...will be nominated for at least one Emmy next year after breaking through," and I was right. Sorry, Sharks, who got snubbed. On the other hand, congratulations to Madix; just being nominated is an honor.
Michael J. Fox – Shrinking: "The Field" as Gerry (Apple TV)
Brett Goldstein – Shrinking: "Happiness Mission" as Louis Winston (Apple TV)
Hamish Linklater – Widow's Bay: "Seasickness" as Richard Warren (Apple TV)
Christopher McDonald – Hacks: "No New Tricks" as Marty Ghilain (HBO Max)
Rob Reiner – The Bear: "Tonnato" as Albert Schnur (FX)
Connor Storrie – Saturday Night Live: "Host: Connor Storrie" as host (NBC)
Connor Storrie is the only SNL performer nominated at these Emmy Awards and the youngest SNL guest host ever nominated, but that doesn't seem to count for much at Gold Derby, where none of the professionals have picked him to win. Their leader is Michael J. Fox, who has the support of
53.8% of experts and 42.9% of editors along with 60.7% of users. Fox is followed by the late Rob Reiner, the choice of 23.1% of experts, 28.6% of editors, and 22.0% of users and Hamish Linklater, picked by 23.1% of experts, 14.3% of editors, and 7.0% of users. Professional and fan opinion diverge for fourth and fifth, as 14.3% of editors but only 2.3% of users consider Christopher McDonald to be a potential winner while no professionals but 7.5% of users selected Storrie. At least everyone generally agrees that Brett Goldstein has the worst chance with only 0.5% of users.
I'm returning to the Emmy Awards for the Sunday entertainment feature with one of only two remaining program categories that I usually cover, Outstanding Television Movie. Here are the nominees at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.
Outstanding Movie
Heads of State (Prime Video)
Miss You, Love You (HBO)
People We Meet on Vacation (Netflix)
Remarkably Bright Creatures (Netflix)
Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan: Ghost War (Prime Video)
Remarkably Bright Creatures leads nominations with three, followed by Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan: Ghost War with two, and Heads of State, Miss You, Love You, and People We Meet on Vacation with one each. Gold Derby's prediction page for the Creative Arts Emmy Awards also has Remarkably Bright Creatures leading, as every editor and expert plus 97.9% of users have selected it to win. Heads of State, Miss You, Love You, and People We Meet on Vacation split the remaining user vote with 0.7% each. Despite having two nominations, Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan: Ghost War has no users choosing it.
The nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie are Claire Danes, Sally Field, Carey Mulligan, Sarah Pidgeon and Sarah Snook.
The prognosticators at Gold Derby see this as a much more competitive contest than for TV Movie. Carey Mulligan leads as the choice of 70% of experts, 50% of editors, and 69.7%, but the professionals and fans differ on the next choice, with 10% of experts, 33.3% of editors, and 7.1% of users picking Sally Fields while 10% of experts and 17.3% of users selecting Sarah Snook. Sarah Pigeon also has the support of 10% of experts along with 16.7% of editors and 4.8% of users. Claire Danes is the choice of the remaining 1% of users.
Back to the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.
Outstanding Music Composition for a Limited or Anthology Series, Movie or Special (Original Dramatic Score)
All Her Fault: "Episode 7" – Jeff Beal (Peacock)
The Beast in Me: "The Beast and Me" – Sean Callery and Sara Barone (Netflix)
Black Rabbit: "Isle of Joy" – Danny Bensi and Saunder Jurriaans (Netflix)
In the Blink of an Eye – Thomas Newman (Hulu)
Washington Black: "If You See My Mama, Whisper Her This..." – Cameron Moody (Hulu)
All Her Fault leads the nominees at Gold Derby with the support of 86.7% of experts, 83.3% of editors, and 92.7% of users, followed by The Beast in Me with 6.7% of experts, 16.7% of editors, and 5.5% of users, with the rest divided between experts and users. In the Blink of an Eye, the sole movie nominee, has the vote of 6.7% of experts, but no users, while Black Rabbit and Washington Black tie with 0.9% of users each.
Follow over the jump for the non-music craft categories.
I'm resuming my awards show coverage with the animation nominations. Here are the nominees and winners (yes, already) at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.
Outstanding Animated Program
Bob's Burgers: "Grand Pre-Pre-Pre-Opening" (Fox)
Rick and Morty: "There's Something About Morty" (Adult Swim)
The Simpsons: "Homer? A Cracker Bro?" (Fox)
Smiling Friends: "Le Voyage Incroyable de Monsieur Grenouille" (Adult Swim)
South Park: "Sermon on the 'Mount" (Comedy Central)
Star Wars: Visions: "BLACK" (Disney+)
South Park leads with three nominations, followed by Star Wars: Visions with one nomination and a win, The Simpsons with two nominations, and Bob's Burgers, Rick and Morty, and Smiling Friends with just this one nomination. Gold Derby's prediction page for the Creative Arts Emmy Awards also has South Park leading, as every editor, 90.9% of experts, and 92.6% of users believe it will win with professional and user opinion split among the rest of the nominees with the remaining 9.1% of experts and 1.7% of users selecting Smiling Friends while Bob's Burgers and The Simpsons tied at 2.5% of users each, followed by Rick and Morty with the final 0.8% of users. No one at Gold Derby thinks Star Wars: Visions has a chance, but the series earned an Emmy anyway in the next category.
Outstanding Individual Achievement in Animation (Juried)
Eyes of Wakanda: "Into the Lion's Den" – Uzoma Dunkwu (Disney+)‡
Genndy Tartakovsky's Primal: "Kingdom of Sorrow" – David Krentz (Adult Swim)‡
Genndy Tartakovsky's Primal: "Vengeance of Death" – Scott Wills (Adult Swim)‡
The Mighty Nein: "Mote of Possibility" – Howard Chen (Prime Video)‡
Star Wars: Visions: "The Duel: Payback" – Takashi Okazaki (Disney+)‡
Congratulations to all the winners, including Genndy Tartakovsky's Primal twice!
Pamela Adlon – King of the Hill: "Any Given Hill-Day" as Bobby Hill (Hulu)
Julie Andrews – Bridgerton: "The Waltz" as Lady Whistledown (Netflix)
Hank Azaria – The Simpsons: "Keep Chalm and Gary On" as Gary Chalmers (Fox)
Trey Parker – South Park: "The Crap Out" as Satan (Comedy Central)
Matt Vogel – The Muppet Show as Kermit the Frog (Disney+)
Steven Yeun – Invincible: "Don't Leave Me Hanging Here" as Mark Grayson / Invincible (Prime Video)
Julie Andrews leads with every expert, 66.7% of editors, and 79.6% of Gold Derby users selecting her to win. She's followed by Pamela Adlon with the remaining 33.3% of editors and 12.4% of users. The rest of the users are split among Trey Parker with 4.4%, Matt Vogel with 1.8%, then Hank Azaria and Steven Yeun tied at 0.9%.
The prognosticators are consolidating around Julie Andrews as every expert, 75% of editors, and 85.1% of users are now choosing her to win. Meanwhile, 25% of editors and 9.9% of users remain with Pamela Adlon, 4.1% of users are sticking with Trey Parker, and 0.8% maintain their support for Matt Vogel. Hank Azaria and Steven Yuen have lost all their voters. That took less than a week!
Outstanding Original Music and Lyrics
The Boys: "The Frenchman, the Female, and the Man Called Mother's Milk" – "Raise Him Up" by Christopher Lennertz and Daveed Diggs (Prime Video)
Hacks: "EGOT" – "Mis Figuritas" by Carlos Rafael Rivera and David Stal (HBO Max)
The Pitt: "12:00 P.M." – "Need Someone" by Gavin Brivik and Andrew Bird (HBO Max)
South Park: "The Crap Out" – "Christian Woman" by Trey Parker (Comedy Central)
Spider-Noir: "A Mistake I'll Never Make Again" – "The Devil You Know" by Warren Oak Felder, Sebastian Kole, and Daniel Pemberton (MGM+ / Prime Video)
Wednesday: "Woe Me the Money" – "The Dead Dance" by Lady Gaga, Andrew Watt, and Henry Russell Walter (Netflix)
This is a three-way contest for the Emmy according to Gold Derby among "The Dead Dance" from Wednesday with 45.5% of experts, 50% of editors, and 56.3% of users expecting Lady Gaga will win her first Emmy, 27.3% of experts, 25% of editors, and 25.2% of users predicting The Boys will repeat with "Raise Him Up," and 18.2% of experts, the remaining 25% of editors, and 16.8% of users hoping Hacks will take home the Emmy for "Mis Figuritas." User and professional opinion split on their final choice, as 1.7% of users think "The Devil You Know" from Spider-Noir is the dark horse while the remaining 9.1% of experts think "Need Someone" will pick up a trophy as part of a sweep by The Pitt. No one thinks "Christian Woman" will win. Listen to A Christian Woman Knows Her Place — Singing ONLY — SOUTH PARK Christmas Song S28 Ep5 and hear why.
That's mean comedy like one would expect from South Park (and Borat) that succeeds at being a deliberately a bad song, bad enough to make me root even harder for Lady Gaga.
Follow over the jump for a category Gold Derby didn't handicap.
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show (Disney+)
Wicked: One Wonderful Night (NBC)
The Muppet Show and Wicked: One Wonderful Night co-lead with six nominations each, followed by Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show with five, Nikki Glaser: Good Girl with three, and Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... with two. Gold Derby's prediction page for the Creative Arts Emmy Awards also has The Muppet Show leading with 90% of experts, 33.3% of editors, and 71.3% of users electing it to win. They reverse Wicked: One Wonderful Night and Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | The Final Show as the latter has the vote of the remaining 10% of experts and 66.7% of editors plus 18.0% while the former only has the support of 8.2% of users. The professionals are split! The users also reverse Nikki Glaser: Good Girl and Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... with the former ranked fifth at 0.8% and the latter in fourth with 1.6%.
Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance
Pamela Adlon – King of the Hill: "Any Given Hill-Day" as Bobby Hill (Hulu)
Julie Andrews – Bridgerton: "The Waltz" as Lady Whistledown (Netflix)
Hank Azaria – The Simpsons: "Keep Chalm and Gary On" as Gary Chalmers (Fox)
Trey Parker – South Park: "The Crap Out" as Satan (Comedy Central)
Matt Vogel – The Muppet Show as Kermit the Frog (Disney+)
Steven Yeun – Invincible: "Don't Leave Me Hanging Here" as Mark Grayson / Invincible (Prime Video)
Julie Andrews leads with every expert, 66.7% of editors, and 79.6% of Gold Derby users selecting her to win. She's followed by Pamela Adlon with the remaining 33.3% of editors and 12.4% of users. The rest of the users are split among Trey Parker with 4.4%, Matt Vogel with 1.8%, then Hank Azaria and Steven Yeun tied at 0.9%.
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
Chris Fleming: Live at the Palace – Chris Fleming (HBO)
The Muppet Show – Albertina Rizzo, Gabe Liedman, Nedaa Sweiss, Kelly Younger, and Andrew Williams (Disney+)
Nikki Glaser: Good Girl – Nikki Glaser (Hulu)
The Oscars – Amberia Allen, Jose Arroyo, Josh Comers, Dan Cronin, Jessie Gaskell, Skyler Higley, Berkley Johnson, Ian Karmel, Brian Kiley, Laurie Kilmartin, Carol Leifer, Todd Levin, Jon Macks, Conan O'Brien, Matt O'Brien, Agathe Panaretos, Mike Sweeney, Levi MacDougall, and Eric Roth (ABC)
Wanda Sykes: Legacy – Wanda Sykes (Netflix)
Gold Derby predicts The Muppet Show will win this award, too, with every editor, 50% of editors, and 87.9% of users picking it. The remaining 50% of editors and 4.3% of users chose Chris Fleming: Live at the Palace to upset. The rest of the user vote is split among Nikki Glaser: Good Girl at 6.9% and Wanda Sykes: Legacy at 0.9%. The Oscars have no support at all!
The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Hamish Hamilton (NBC)
Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... – Rikki Hughes (Netflix)
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: The Final Show – Glenn Weiss (Disney+)
78th Annual Tony Awards – Glenn Weiss (CBS)
Wanda Sykes: Legacy – Julie Dash (Netflix)
Once again, every expert and editor plus 94.3% of users have Hamish Hamilton taking home the statuette. Glenn Weiss for both Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: The Final Show and 78th Annual Tony Awards ties himself at 2.9% each, so he has a combined 6.8 5.8% chance, while no one thinks Rikki Hughes for Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... and Julie Dash for Wanda Sykes: Legacy have a chance.
Despite my using the Twitter/X publicity image for Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable..., Gold Derby still thinks its director has no chance. On the other hand, users are trickling away from The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny to Glenn Weiss's projects, splitting their votes evenly at 3.5% for 7% total. I'm not convinced.
Outstanding Music Direction
The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Miguel Gandelman (NBC)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert: "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Series Finale" – Louis Cato (CBS)
The Oscars – Michael Bearden (ABC)
Saturday Night Live: "Host: Jack Black" – Lenny Pickett, Leon Pendarvis, Eli Brueggemann, and Maddie Rice (NBC)
Wicked: One Wonderful Night – Stephen Oremus (NBC)
For the third and final time, every expert and editor along with 90.1% of users think The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny will win, giving Miguel Gandelman an Emmy. Wicked: One Wonderful Night notched 9.1% of users, The Oscars 0.8%, and the rest of the field earned no votes at all.
This may be Wicked: One Wonderful Night's best shot at winning, but even here user opinion is consolidating around The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny with 91.6% and all the rest with Wicked: One Wonderful Night at 8.4%. The users have abandoned The Oscars, which has joined the rest of the field without any votes at all.
As Gold Derby predicted in January, the Puerto Rican superstar — whose real name is Benito Antonio MartÃnez Ocasio — scored a nomination Wednesday for Best Variety Special (Live) for his sizzling, much-scrutinized halftime show at Sunday's Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. The special was one of the most-nominated programs, receiving nine total bids, including Production Design for a Variety Special, Choreography for Variety or Reality Programming, Directing for a Variety Special, Hairstyling for a Variety, Nonfiction or Reality Program, Lighting Design/Lighting Direction for a Special, Music Direction, Sound Mixing for a Variety Series or Special, and Technical Direction and Camerawork for a Special. That marks a record for a halftime show.
People listed Bad Bunny's competitors for Best Variety Special (Live).
The milestone comes after the performance drew a staggering 128.2 million viewers, making it the fourth-most-watched Super Bowl halftime show in history. The show is also nominated for Outstanding Variety Special (Live), where it will compete against four major awards ceremonies: the 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards, the 68th Annual Grammy Awards, the Oscars and the 78th Annual Tony Awards.
I'm not going to handicap this category today; Gold Derby has its prediction page for the Creative Arts Emmy Awards up, but no one seems to have made a prediction in this category. When enough predictions have been tallied, I'll return to this category. On the other hand, the Super Bowl Halftime Show is leading the odds for Variety Special Directing and Music Direction; Gold Derby is not making predictions in the craft categories. I'll look at those when I examine Gold Derby's prediction for Variety Special (Live).
Every expert and editor along with 94.7% of users have chosen The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny, to use its official name, to win. The Oscars follow with 2.6% of users, then the 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards and 78th Annual Tony Awards tie at 1.3%; no one is picking the 68th Annual Grammy Awards.
The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Hamish Hamilton (NBC)
Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... – Rikki Hughes (Netflix)
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: The Final Show – Glenn Weiss (Disney+)
78th Annual Tony Awards – Glenn Weiss (CBS)
Wanda Sykes: Legacy – Julie Dash (Netflix)
Once again, every expert and editor plus 94.3% of users have Hamish Hamilton taking home the statuette. Glenn Weiss for both Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour: The Final Show and 78th Annual Tony Awards ties himself at 2.9% each, so he has a combined 6.8% chance, while no one thinks Rikki Hughes for Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable... and Julie Dash for Wanda Sykes: Legacy have a chance.
Outstanding Music Direction
The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny – Miguel Gandelman (NBC)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert: "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Series Finale" – Louis Cato (CBS)
The Oscars – Michael Bearden (ABC)
Saturday Night Live: "Host: Jack Black" – Lenny Pickett, Leon Pendarvis, Eli Brueggemann, and Maddie Rice (NBC)
Wicked: One Wonderful Night – Stephen Oremus (NBC)
For the third and final time, every expert and editor along with 90.1% of users think The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny will win, giving Miguel Gandelman an Emmy. Wicked: One Wonderful Night notched 9.1% of users, The Oscars 0.8%, and the rest of the field earned no votes at all.
Celebrity Family Feud, Jeopardy!, and Who Wants to Be a Millionaire co-lead with two nominations, while The Price Is Right and Wheel of Fortune have only this one. Jeopardy!is the defending winner, so it's my default choice to win. The Gold Derby oddsmakers agree, as every expert and editor plus 97.6% of users think it will repeat. The rest of the users split between Celebrity Family Feud with 1.5% and Wheel of Fortune with 1.0%. Who Wants to Be a Millionaire and The Price Is Right have no votes. That's overwhelming!
Outstanding Host for a Game Show
Steve Harvey – Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
Ken Jennings – Jeopardy! (ABC / Syndicated)
Colin Jost – Pop Culture Jeopardy! (Netflix)
Jimmy Kimmel – Who Wants to Be a Millionaire (ABC)
Martin Short – Match Game (ABC)
On the other hand, Gold Derby does not think Jimmy Kimmel will repeat. Instead, every expert, 83.3% of editors, and 89.7% of users expect Martin Short will win. The editors and users split on the runner up. The remaining 16.7% of editors plus 3.3% of users think Ken Jennings will finally walk off the podium with an Emmy, while 4.7% of users pick Jimmy Kimmel to repeat. Steve Harvey, who regularly won this award when it was part of the Daytime Emmy Award, has user support of 1.4%. Electorates matter. Colin Jost sits last with 0.9% of users.
That's a wrap for today. I plan on continuing awards show coverage tomorrow, but not the Emmys. Instead, the CriticsChoiceSuperAwards winners will be announced later today, so I'm going to shift focus to those this weekend. Stay tuned.
Previous posts about the 2026 Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards
I told my readers to "Stay tuned for the nominees in Structured Reality Program" at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards for today's post, so here they are.
Outstanding Structured Reality Program
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food Network)
Love Is Blind (Netflix)
Queer Eye (Netflix)
Shark Tank (ABC)
These are the only nominations for these shows, so I can't use their other nominations to handicap them. While Queer Eyewon last year, the Gold Derby odds doubt it will repeat. Instead, 71.4% of experts, 66.7% of editors, and 75.4% of users expect Antiques Roadshow will win. The remaining experts are split with 14.3% each forecasting Queer Eye and Love Is Blind. The users break that tie with 14.8% backing Queer Eye and 6.6% loving Love Is Blind. 33.3% of editors and 3.3% of users selected Shark Tank. No one thinks Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives will win. Always a nominee, never a winner.
That's a wrap for today's installment. Stay tuned to see if I continue tomorrow with the reality competition category.
Previous posts about the 2026 Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards
I'm stepping over the fine line between nonfiction and reality for today's awards show coverage by examining nominations for Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.
Love on the Spectrum leads with five nominations, followed by Welcome to Wrexham with four, America's Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders and RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked tied at two, and Summer House with just this one. That's close to how the Gold Derby odds rank their odds. Every expert, 83.3% of editors, and 87.6% of users picked Love on the Spectrum to repeat. The editors and users split on which shows could upset the leader. America's Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders is the choice of the remaining 16.7% of editors but no users, while 7.5% regard RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked as the runner-up with Welcome to Wrexham at 4.3% and new nominee Summer House as the selection of the final 0.5%.
I'm glad to see America's Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleadersrepeat its nomination and Summer House replace The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. The latter was trashy fun, but it struck me as exploition of exploitation.
Follow over the jump for the rest of these shows' nominations.
