Monday, November 24, 2014

Professor Farnsworth approves of the University of Michigan's predictions

As if Good economic news for election day wasn't enough, the University of Michigan provided two more pieces of good news, or, rather, two forecasts of good news for business as usual, last week that I included in the tip jar for Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Philae discovers organics) on Daily Kos.

First, The US economy: Ready for takeoff on November 20, 2014.
ANN ARBOR—The U.S. economy will grow by more than 3 percent next year—its highest rate in 10 years, say economists at the University of Michigan.

Overall economic output growth (as measured by real Gross Domestic Product) will jump from 2.2 percent this year to 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.3 percent in 2016.

"We expect that 2015 will be the year when U.S. economic growth will finally accelerate meaningfully," said U-M economist Daniil Manaenkov. "This year, severe winter weather joined the list of headwinds that have prevented U.S. economic growth from picking up. Even still, both private and total payroll job gains during 2014 are on track for their best performance since 1999. And going forward, strong GDP growth supports steady employment gains."
We should be so lucky.

The very next day, the prediction was for Michigan's economy: Onward and upward.
ANN ARBOR—After five years of steady job growth, the Michigan economy will continue to move forward at a solid clip over the next two years, say University of Michigan economists.

In their annual November forecast of the Michigan economy, George Fulton and colleagues Joan Crary and Donald Grimes say the state will add more than 132,000 jobs over the next two years.

All told, Michigan will have added nearly 463,000 jobs during the economic recovery from summer 2009 through the end of 2016—returning the job count to levels posted at the end of 2006 and a little more than halfway back to job levels posted in mid-2000.
Ah, yes, good news for business as usual.  Too bad these are not business as usual times.


  1. This is the 21st century. Why should weather affect economic activity?

    1. Not everyone has an internet connection and there are some things even people that do would rather do in person. Last winter, it was so cold that people didn't do them. Also, some things can only be done in person, like construction. Those didn't get done, either.

      For details, read Polar vortex and the economy and the NIU press release I linked from it.