'DTF St. Louis' vs 'Beef' at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards

I'm returning to the Emmy Awards by examining the remaining nominees for limited and anthology series that have Gold Derby odds at the the Creative Arts Emmy Awards. I'm following Gold Derby's order of categories beginning with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Linda Cardellini – DTF St. Louis as Carol Love-Smernitch (HBO)
• Dakota Fanning – All Her Fault as Jenny Kaminski (Peacock)
• Laurie Metcalf – Monster: The Ed Gein Story as Augusta Gein (Netflix)
• Joy Sunday – DTF St. Louis as Jodie Plumb (HBO)
• Youn Yuh-jung – Beef as Chairwoman Park (Netflix)
• Constance Zimmer – Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette as Ann Messina Freeman (FX)

Linda Cardellini leads as the selection of 93.8% of experts, 66.7% of editors, and 87.7% of users. As has commonly been the case, the professionals and the amateurs disagree on which nominees have the next best odds. Constance Zimmer, who I've been a fan of since she was in UnREAL ten years ago, is the professionals' second choice with 6.3% of experts and 33.3% of editors, but only 2.6% of users; Youn Yuh-jung is the users' choice with 7.8% of them voting for her to win. Laurie Metcalf earned 1.1% of the users, followed by Dakota Fanning with 0.7%, and Joy Sunday with none.


Gold Derby also thinks that an actor from DTF St. Louis will win this award, too, as 87.5% of experts, 88.9% of editors, and 82.8% of users expect David Harbour will walk off the stage with the Emmy this weekend. Charles Melton and Richard Gadd split the remaining expert vote at 6.3% each with the users breaking the tie in favor of Melton with 11.9% while Gadd has the support of 3.4%. Nick Offerman is fourth according to the users with 1.1% of their votes. Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins split the remaining user vote at 0.4% each with the rest of the experts breaking the time this time as the choice of the last 11.1%.

Follow over the jump for the categories recognizing the contributors behind the camera.

Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Beef: "It Will Stay This Way and You Will Obey" – Jake Schreier (Netflix)
• Beef: "Oh, the Comfort, the Inexpressible Comfort" – Lee Sung Jin (Netflix)
• Black Rabbit: "The Black Rabbits" – Jason Bateman (Netflix)
• DTF St. Louis – Steven Conrad (HBO)

DTF St. Louis leads this category at Gold Derby as well, with every editor, 93.8% of experts, and 87.1% of users expecting its director to win. The remaining 6.2% (the site says 6.3%, but that doesn't add up to 100.0, so there's a rounding error) of experts and 10.4% of users believe the Beef episode "Oh, the Comfort, the Inexpressible Comfort" will upset DTF St. Louis. Only 2.1% of users think Jason Bateman could win for for Black Rabbit, while the second episode of Beef has the support of only 0.4% of users.

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• All Her Fault: "Episode 8" – Megan Gallagher (Peacock)
• The Beast in Me: "Sick Puppy" – Gabe Rotter and Daniel Pearle (Netflix)
• Beef: "All the Things We're Never Going to Have" – Lee Sung Jin (Netflix)
• Death by Lightning – Mike Makowsky (Netflix)
• DTF St. Louis – Steven Conrad (HBO)

A bare plurality of professionals prefer Beef with 50.0% of experts and 55.6% of editors along with 74.1% of users expecting the second season of the anthology series to win the Emmy. DTF St. Louis follows closely with 43.8% of experts, 33.3% of editors, and 23.0% behind it. We have a contest! The professionals split on the next choice, as 6.3% of experts and 1.6% of users are backing The Beast in Me, while the remaining 11.1% of editors and 1.2% of users like Death by Lightning. No one agrees that All Her Fault has a chance.

Outstanding Casting for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• All Her Fault – David Rubin, Matt Lander, Djinous Rowling, and Jane Norris (Peacock)
• The Beast in Me – Julie Tucker and Kim Krakauer (Netflix)
• Beef – Jeanie Bacharach (Netflix)
• DTF St. Louis – Francine Maisler, Amber Wakefield, Molly Rose, Chase Paris, and Tara Feldstein Bennett (HBO)
• Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette – Courtney Bright, Nicole Daniels, and Jennifer Brooks (FX)

Of all the categories awarded at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, the one that has the highest correlation with winning the program category at the Primetime Emmy Awards is casting. Here, Gold Derby thinks that Beef has the highest chance of winning both, with 60.0% of experts, 75.0% of editors, and 71.0% of users think it will win this category. DTF St. Louis is the clear second choice with 33.3% of experts, 12.5% of editors, and 22.2% of users. Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette follows it as the pick of 6.7% of experts, 12.5% of editors, and 4.9% of users. The Beast in Me and All Her Fault trail with 1.2% and 0.6% of users, respectively.

Outstanding Original Main Title Theme Music

• All Her Fault – Jeff Beal (Peacock)
• The Beast in Me – Sean Callery (Netflix)
• The 'Burbs – Michael Abels (Peacock)
• Murderbot – Amanda Jones (Apple TV)
• Pluribus – Dave Porter (Apple TV)

Pluribus leads at Gold Derby as the choice of 92.9% of experts, 75.0% of editors, and 94.5% of users. Murderbot has more professional than fan support with 7.1% of experts, 12.5% of editors, and 2.4% of users. The remaining 12.5% of editors but only 0.6% of users believe Jeff Beal will win for All Her Fault. The rest of the users split between The Beast in Me with 1.8% and The 'Burbs with 0.6%.

I continue with a category from 'Remarkably Bright Creatures' leads Outstanding TV Movie nominees at the Emmys.

Outstanding Music Composition for a Limited or Anthology Series, Movie or Special (Original Dramatic Score)

• All Her Fault: "Episode 7" – Jeff Beal (Peacock)
• The Beast in Me: "The Beast and Me" – Sean Callery and Sara Barone (Netflix)
• Black Rabbit: "Isle of Joy" – Danny Bensi and Saunder Jurriaans (Netflix)
• In the Blink of an Eye – Thomas Newman (Hulu)
• Washington Black: "If You See My Mama, Whisper Her This..." – Cameron Moody (Hulu)

All Her Fault leads the nominees at Gold Derby with the support of 86.7% of experts, 83.3% of editors, and 92.7% of users, followed by The Beast in Me with 6.7% of experts, 16.7% of editors, and 5.5% of users, with the rest divided between experts and users. In the Blink of an Eye, the sole movie nominee, has the vote of 6.7% of experts, but no users, while Black Rabbit and Washington Black tie with 0.9% of users each.

Gold Derby's experts are consolidating around All Her Fault, while the experts and users are moving to The Beast in Me and the rest of the nominees. The former now has the votes of 92.9% of experts, 75.0% of editors, and 86.9% of users, while the latter now has 25.0% of editors and 10.0% of users. Users have also started moving to In the Blink of an Eye with 7.1% of experts and 0.6% of users, Black Rabbit with 1.9% of users, and Washington Black with 0.6% of users.

That's a wrap for today. I'll resume this series on Friday with the guest acting and casting categories for comedy and drama series. That's after another brief educational entry tomorrow. Stay tuned.

I close with Jeff Beal - Milo's Theme - All Her Fault (Original Series Soundtrack).



Previous posts about the 2026 Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards

• 'The Tale of Silyan' vs 'The Librarians' for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking at the Emmy Awards
• Drink to Bad Bunny's Super Bowl Halftime Show's Emmy nominations on National Piña Colada Day
• 'Desi Lydic Foxsplains Trump's Big Beautiful Ballroom' plus the short form nominees at the Emmy Awards
• 'Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: Give the Man a Prize' plus the Emmy nominees for Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
• 'Prehistoric Planet: Ice Age' earned two Emmy nominations for its VFX and music
• 'Oceans with David Attenborough' tied with 'Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man!' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
• 'Mr. Scorsese' vs. 'The American Revolution' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series plus Data Centers on Earth Overshoot Day
• 'The Daily Show' examines Fauci's testimony and RFK Hospital plus Emmy nominations for 'The Daily Show'
• John Oliver examines 'Trump & Crypto' plus Emmy nominations for 'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver'
• 'Love on the Spectrum' leads Unstructured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
• Gold Derby predicts 'Antiques Roadshow' will win Outstanding Structured Reality Program at the Emmys
• 'Jeopardy!' predicted to repeat as Outstanding Game Show at the Emmy Awards
• Bad Bunny's Super Bowl Halftime Show leads Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmys
• 'The Late Show with Stephen Colbert's final Emmy nominations
• 'The Muppet Show' leads Taylor Swift and 'Wicked' for Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) at the Emmys
• 'South Park' leads Outstanding Animated Series while 'Star Wars: Visions' has already won an Emmy
• 'Remarkably Bright Creatures' leads Outstanding TV Movie nominees at the Emmys
• It's Saturday, so here are SNL's eleven Emmy nominations
• Once again, 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win for the third time