As I promised yesterday, I'm resuming my coverage of the winners of this year's Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards. Todays installment re-examines the predictions for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special, beginning with the ones in 'Ocean with David Attenborough' tied with 'Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man!' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special.
Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man! and Ocean with David Attenborough co-lead with six nominations each, followed by John Candy: I Like Me with five nominations and Marty, Life Is Short tied with My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay at three. Normally, I'd consider Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man! and Ocean with David Attenborough to be co-favorites, but the experts, editors, and users at Gold Derby disagree. They think John Candy: I Like Me and My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay to be the favorites, with 50.0% of experts, 28.6% of editors, and 61.0% of users picking the former, while 50.0% of experts, 57.1% of editors, and 26.3% of users choosing the latter. Normally, I'd favor the editors over the experts except one of the experts picking John Candy: I Like Me is Joyce Eng, whose opinion I trust. The remaining editor(s), 14.3%, are currently voting for Ocean with David Attenborough along with 3.5% of users. The rest of the users are split between Marty, Life Is Short with 6.2% and Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man! with 3.0%. I've often written that, all things being equal, the Emmy electorate will vote for a good story about themselves. The corollary is that they will vote for a nominee about a dead celebrity over a living one. The prognosticators at Gold Derby seem to agree. Again, electorates matter.By the time of the Saturday ceremony, most of the professionals lined up behind My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay with 58.8% of the experts and 50.0% of editors, along with 34.6% of users. The majority of users, 55.9%, joined by 41.2% of experts and 37.5% of editors, stuck with John Candy: I Like Me. The remaining 12.5% of editors held their position with Ocean with David Attenborough. The professionals called it. Watch Documentary Or Nonfiction Special: 78th Emmy Awards.
The team from My Mom Jayne: A Film By Mariska Hargitay accepts the Emmy for Documentary Or Nonfiction Special at the 78th Emmy Awards.Congratulations!
The editors lost their nerve by the time of the ceremony, as 66.7% of them joined 88.9% of the experts and 82.3% of users in selecting Sir David, while only 11.1% of both experts and editors along with 11.3% stuck with Octavia Spencer. More editors, 22.2%, wanted Werner Herzog to win! The editors should have held fast, as Spencer won. Watch Narrator: 78th Emmy Awards.Outstanding NarratorThe experts, editors, and users disagree about the odds in this category, too, with 87.5% of experts and 83.0% of users but only 28.6% of editors electing for Sir David in Ocean with David Attenborough, 42.9% of editors along with 12.5% of experts and 9.4% of users choosing Octavia Spencer, and the remaining 28.6% of editors along with 2.9% of users on board with Warner Herzog. The remaining users split between Jodie Foster at 2.6% and Sir David's other nomination at 2.1%. Let's see who switches first, the experts or the editors.
- Sir David Attenborough – A Gorilla Story: Told by David Attenborough (Netflix)
- Sir David Attenborough – Ocean with David Attenborough (Nat Geo)
- Jodie Foster – Breakdown: 1975 (Netflix)
- Werner Herzog – Ghost Elephants (Nat Geo)
- Octavia Spencer – Lost Women of Alaska: "The Missing" (Investigation Discovery)
Octavia Spencer accepts the Emmy for Narrator at the 78th Emmy Awards.Congratulations to Spencer, who now has an Emmy to go along with her Oscar.
I also listed the other nominations for Ocean with David Attenborough.
The remaining four categories in which Ocean with David Attenborough earned nominations are Outstanding Cinematography for a Nonfiction Program (covered in 'The Tale of Silyan' vs 'The Librarians' for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking at the Emmy Awards), Outstanding Music Composition for a Documentary/Nonfiction or Reality Program (Original Dramatic Score) (sort of covered in 'Prehistoric Planet: Ice Age' earned two Emmy nominations for its VFX and music), Outstanding Sound Editing for a Nonfiction or Reality Program, and Outstanding Sound Mixing for a Nonfiction Program (covered in 'Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: Give the Man a Prize' plus the Emmy nominees for Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special).Follow over the jump for the categories either Ocean with David Attenborough or My Mom Jayne: A Film By Mariska Hargitay won.

My intuition was right. Watch Cinematography for a Nonfiction Program: 78th Emmy Awards.Outstanding Cinematography for a Nonfiction ProgramI'll re-examine this category at least twice, but my preliminary pick is Ocean with David Attenborough.
- My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay – Tony Hardman (HBO)
- Ocean with David Attenborough – Doug Anderson and Toby Strong (Nat Geo)
- The Tale of Silyan – Jean Dakar (Nat Geo)
- Tucci in Italy: "Le Marche" – Matt Ball (Nat Geo)
- The Yogurt Shop Murders: "The End of Wondering" – Justin Zweifach and Christopher LaMarca (HBO)
Doug Anderson and Toby Strong accepts the Emmy for Cinematography for a Nonfiction Program at the 78th Emmy Awards.Congratulations!
Ocean with David Attenborough also won Sound Editing for a Nonfiction or Reality Program: 78th Emmy Awards.
George Fry, Roy Noy, Jonathon Cawte and Chris Domaille accepts the Emmy for Sound Editing for a Nonfiction or Reality Program at the 78th Emmy Awards.I didn't make a prediction for this category, but I did for sound mixing, "Billy Joel: And So It Goes because I think music nominees have an advantage." I was right about sound mixing, but would have been wrong making the same choice for sound editing. It's just as well I didn't. Congratulations!
I conclude with a category I covered in 'Mr. Scorsese' vs. 'The American Revolution' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series plus Data Centers on Earth Overshoot Day.
Nope. Watch Directing for a Documentary/Nonfiction Program: 78th Emmy Awards.Outstanding Directing for a Documentary/Nonfiction ProgramMr. Scorsese and Sean Combs: The Reckoning both earned nominations at the Directors Guild of America Awards and Mr. Scorsese won, so I think it's the favorite.
- Marty, Life Is Short – Lawrence Kasdan (Netflix)
- Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man! – Judd Apatow and Michael Bonfiglio (HBO)
- Mr. Scorsese: "All This Filming Isn't Healthy" – Rebecca Miller (Apple TV)
- My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay – Mariska Hargitay (HBO Max)
- Sean Combs: The Reckoning: "Pain vs Love" – Alexandria Stapleton (Netflix)
Mariska Hargitay accepts the Emmy for Directing for a Documentary/Nonfiction Program at the 78th Emmy Awards.I may have been wrong in July, but I was right in November.
This was one of the nominees I thought could win Best Biographical Documentary and I'd probably have picked it to win this category because I listened to Mariska Hargitay interviewed on Fresh Air as part of a publicity tour. I think that matters. Congratulations and good luck at next year's Emmys, most likely the Creative Arts; this looks like their kind of film.It sure was. Congratulations!
That's a wrap for today's installment. I plan on returning to Emmy winners Friday. I have a bigger breaking entertainment story for tomorrow, the settlement in the anti-trust suit against the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger. Stay tuned.
Previous posts about the 2026 Primetime and Creative Arts Emmy Awards
- 'The Tale of Silyan' vs 'The Librarians' for Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking at the Emmy Awards
- Drink to Bad Bunny's Super Bowl Halftime Show's Emmy nominations on National PiƱa Colada Day
- 'Desi Lydic Foxsplains Trump's Big Beautiful Ballroom' plus the short form nominees at the Emmy Awards
- 'Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: Give the Man a Prize' plus the Emmy nominees for Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
- 'Prehistoric Planet: Ice Age' earned two Emmy nominations for its VFX and music
- 'Oceans with David Attenborough' tied with 'Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man!' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
- 'Mr. Scorsese' vs. 'The American Revolution' for Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series plus Data Centers on Earth Overshoot Day
- 'The Daily Show' examines Fauci's testimony and RFK Hospital plus Emmy nominations for 'The Daily Show'
- John Oliver examines 'Trump & Crypto' plus Emmy nominations for 'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver'
- 'Love on the Spectrum' leads Unstructured Reality Program at the Emmy Awards
- Gold Derby predicts 'Antiques Roadshow' will win Outstanding Structured Reality Program at the Emmys
- 'Jeopardy!' predicted to repeat as Outstanding Game Show at the Emmy Awards
- Bad Bunny's Super Bowl Halftime Show leads Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmys
- 'The Late Show with Stephen Colbert's final Emmy nominations
- 'The Muppet Show' leads Taylor Swift and 'Wicked' for Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) at the Emmys
- 'South Park' leads Outstanding Animated Series while 'Star Wars: Visions' has already won an Emmy
- 'Remarkably Bright Creatures' leads Outstanding TV Movie nominees at the Emmys
- It's Saturday, so here are SNL's eleven Emmy nominations
- Once again, 'RuPaul's Drag Race' leads nominations for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, but 'The Traitors' will likely win for the third time
- 'DTF St. Louis' vs 'Beef' at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards
- Bad Bunny's Super Bowl Halftime show wins seven Emmys
- 'The Muppet Show' wins four Emmy Awards
- 'DTF St. Louis' won six Emmy Awards and could beat 'Beef' for Outstanding Limited Series
- 'South Park' mocks Trump after winning Emmy
- 'Widow's Bay' wins 8 Emmys and could win up to 6 more
- 'The Pitt' and 'Pluribus' each win 4 Emmys and will likely split the remaining 7
- 'DTF St. Louis' wins Outstanding Limited Series while 'Beef' is shut out at the Primetime Emmy Awards
- 'Widow's Bay' breaks Emmy record with 14 including Outstanding Comedy Series
- 'The Pitt' wins Outstanding Drama Series while 'Pluribus' wins Outstanding Actress in a Drama Series
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