I made several predictions to open The limbo bar drops to $1.95 plus 2014 in energy and environment. Time to see how they panned out.
Last Friday, the news was $1.99 gas arrives in my neighborhood. Today, the price at all four stations is $1.95. Yesterday, the three stations down the street lowered regular to that price while the corner station was at $1.99. Today, the corner station matched them. I expect that's where the local price of gas will end the year.That's exactly what happened. The corner station remained at $1.95 through New Year's Day.
What about the second?
Gas Buddy supports my expectation, as the national average rose slightly from $2.27 yesterday to $2.28 today, a move mirrored by the Detroit average, which also rose slightly from $2.02 to $2.03 today. I suppose the price could drop to $1.93 tomorrow, but that would be both counter to the trend and unexpected heading into a holiday. Maybe Friday or Saturday, should the metro mean remain steady.The price did drop on Friday and probably Saturday, too. When I looked at the corner station on Friday, I could tell that its price for regular had gone down to a number ending in eight. It looked like $1.88, but my wife was driving so I didn't get close enough to be sure. On Saturday, I walked past the corner station and the price was $1.78. Later, I drove past the three stations down the street and all of them were selling regular for $1.85. These are not only the lowest prices I've seen for them since I moved here, but also the first time I recall prices continuing to drop after the new year.
As for which of the prices, $1.78 or $1.85, is more reasonable, it's the latter, as the Detroit average is $1.94 and holding steady for two days. $1.85 is right on target, while $1.78 is well below what the market suggests it should be. I would buy gas at the corner the next chance I get before the price rises.
The final one fared the worst.
Oil-Price.Net suggests that one or two price drops are possible, as both crude oil indexes (indices?) have broken through support. WTI dropped below $55 while Brent fell through $60. However, both may have hit bottom as both rose today, WTI $0.51 to $54.12 and Brent $0.02 to $57.90.Those price rises ended up being dead cat bounces, as WTI closed on Friday at $52.69 and Brent ended trading for the week at $56.42. Support for WTI is now $50 and the floor for Brent appears to be $55. I really expect prices will not fall any lower than those prices. Then again, I've been wrong before. Stay tuned.