CNBC asks 'Can Sanctions Deter Russia From Invading Ukraine?'

I mentioned the military tensions between Russia and Ukraine as one of the reasons the Doomsday Clock remains at 100 seconds to midnight for 2022 last week. The week before that, CNBC asked Can Sanctions Deter Russia From Invading Ukraine?

Economic sanctions remain one of the most powerful tools the United States has in its foreign policy arsenal. And as Russian forces continue to amass along the border with Ukraine, officials in the U.S. hope the threat of those sanctions can deter a full-scale invasion.

Besides sanctions that target individuals or specific companies, some proposals involve cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system, which would remove Russian institutions from an important global financial network.

Another target is the near-completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which when operational would double the amount of natural gas moved from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea and likely reduce the need for other pipelines, such as the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline that runs through Ukraine.

The answer is maybe not, at least by themselves. In addition, the two actions likely to be most effective would require the cooperation of our European allies, Belgium and others for SWIFT and Germany for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. That might be possible, but the experts interviewed by CNBC think those actions would be a major sacrifice for our allies and so are unlikely.

Another expert thought that Russia might be motivated enough to go ahead despite sanctions. Vox explained that when it explained Why Ukraine is trapped in endless conflict four years ago.

The present conflict in Ukraine started in 2014. Today, there are 100,000 fighters stationed in the country, making it one of the most heavily militarized regions in the world. In Ukraine's east, Ukrainian forces are engaged in a struggle with Russian-backed separatists.

A ceasefire was called in 2015, with a security zone established that was meant to foster peace. However, today the security zone remains one of the most violent places in the Ukraine. With over 10,000 deaths to date, and over 1.5 million civilians displaced, the cost of ignoring the ceasefire continues to mount by the day. And both sides are still building up their forces.

It looks like things haven't changed much since then, except Vladimir Putin seems to be running out of patience and sees an opportunity. That's not how I want him to be the Most Interesting Man in the World.

Biden visits Ukraine on Presidents Day

Happy Presidents Day! For today's celebration, I'm covering current events as CNN reports Biden makes surprise visit to Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden made an unannounced trip to Kyiv early for the first time since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost a year ago.

I'm glad to see Joe Biden paying Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Time's Person of the Year for 2022, a visit in Ukraine instead of having Zelenskyy come to the U.S. It shows how much the U.S. supports his country.

CNN explains what this visit and US support mean in ‘A really big deal’: Retired colonel on Biden’s wartime visit to Ukraine.

CNN military analyst Col. Cedric Leighton (Ret.) explains the significance of President Joe Biden’s surprise trip to Kyiv nearly one year after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.

I'm especially glad to hear that Lindsey Graham is calling for training Ukrainian pilots to start as soon as possible. That's a sign of bipartisan support, which Ukraine needs. Now I want to hear that from a member of the Republican House majority.

I turn to MSNBC to wrap up this part of Biden's trip with President Biden leaves Kyiv after historic visit.

President Biden has now left Kyiv on his historic visit to Ukraine. NBC News' Richard Engel reports.

The first anniversary of Putin's war on Ukraine beginning is this Friday and I might have more to say about it then. In the meantime, stay tuned for Paczki Day AKA Fat Tuesday tomorrow.

Vox explains Putin's war on Ukraine

Two months ago, I posted CNBC asks 'Can Sanctions Deter Russia From Invading Ukraine?' The answer to that question was no. To understand why, watch Putin's war on Ukraine, explained.

Ukraine is under attack.
...
On February 24th, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin called it a “special military operation,” but the scale of the attack shows this is a full-scale war that has already caused more than 100 casualties and forced more than half a million Ukrainians to flee their homes.

Ukraine and Russia’s conflict goes back to 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and Russian-backed separatist forces took over parts of southeastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. But to understand the full context behind the invasion, it’s important to go even farther back, to the time when Europe’s current-day divisions began, and see how that shaped Europe’s power balance today.

To understand the current conflict’s history in less than 10 minutes, watch the video above.

After examining the Russian invasion of Ukraine through comedy, it was time to share a serious news and history perspective, which Vox provided.

I'll have more on the war later. In the meantime, stay tuned for International Women's Day.

'SNL' examines the Russian invasion of Ukraine

I concluded CNBC explores 'Why The Future Of The Oscars And Emmys Might Be In Jeopardy' by telling my readers to "stay tuned for an entry on Russian invasion of Ukraine for the final post of the month." I'm letting "Saturday Night Live" do the reporting and commenting today, beginning with Weekend Update: Russia Invades Ukraine, Biden Nominates Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Weekend Update anchors Colin Jost and Michael Che tackle the week's biggest news, like Russia invading Ukraine.

Michael Che was right. This is a tough subject to make jokes about, but comedy exists because laughing hurts less than crying. I'm glad "SNL" tried. I'll examine the war and its effects more next month, both through comedy and serious news.

To close today's entry, I'm going back to the beginning of the show with Ukraine Cold Open.

Ukrainian Chorus Dumka of New York performs Prayer for Ukraine.

For my reaction, I'm quoting Michael W's comment: "Rather than just offer words of support from celebrities, I'm so glad SNL chose to instead step aside and give Ukrainians a platform. This was a genuinely moving gesture. Well done SNL." I couldn't have said it better myself.

So ends February's blogging. As I wrote above, I'll examine the war in Ukraine next month after Paczki Day AKA Fat Tuesday tomorrow. I love holidays!

Statistics for the fourth year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News

I concluded Nowruz Mubarak (Happy Nowruz) and happy birthday to this blog! by telling my readers to "stay tuned for an entry about the statistics for the fourth year of this blog."  Thanks to my readers for their patience; it's time, as it was last year, the year before, and the year before that, to complete the cycle by reviewing the numbers.

During the fourth year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News, from March 21, 2014 to March 20, 2015, I posted 528 entries, the readers and I posted 229 comments, and the blog received 145,875 page views for a total of 2289 posts, 637 comments, and 419,163 page views over the entire first four years of the blog.*  For comparison, the third year of this blog saw 785 entries, 304 comments, and 127,945 page views, the second year I posted 493 entries, readers and I posted 129 comments, and the blog received 97,535 page views, and the first full year I made 483 posts, readers and I posted 204 comments, and the blog received 47,808 page views.  For my analysis of these numbers, follow over the jump.

'Russia’s private military force, explained' by Vox for the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

I closed Biden visits Ukraine on Presidents Day with "The first anniversary of Putin's war on Ukraine beginning is this Friday and I might have more to say about it then." Vox did the work for me by uploading Russia’s private military force, explained last week.

Inside the Wagner Group’s playbook.
...
On January 10, 2023, the Ukrainian town of Soledar was reportedly captured. But it wasn’t captured by the Russian army under Vladimir Putin’s command. The announcement came from a relatively unknown man, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who said his troops now controlled the town. The troops are part of the Wagner Group, a private army that has become a prominent force alongside Russian troops in the war against Ukraine.

But they aren’t new. They've been secretly fighting for Russia around the world since 2014. In this video, we take a look at their playbook and examine the three main steps they use to spread Russian influence around the world in brutal ways. We also look at how they’ve transformed from a ghost army to a recognizable private military group with insignias and an online brand, changing the nature of this secret group and its role in the world.

Wagner Group's "Little Green Men" aren't just fighting for Russian interests in Ukraine. They're also in Syria, Mali, and Sudan, a Russian proxy presence on three continents. Wagner Group's mining operations are also all over Africa. Now I'm wondering what the Chinese think of this.

I'm sure I'll be writing more about the war in Ukraine. Stay tuned.

Chewbacca arrested as Darth Vader campaigns for Mayor of Odessa, Ukraine

Last year, I reported on the aborted campaign of Darth Vader for President of Ukraine.

[S]omeone posing as Darth Vader ran for President of Ukraine on the Internet Party ticket this spring before his candidacy was rejected.  Too bad about that.  His campaign would have been more fun to report on that what actually happened in Ukraine this summer.

The Dark Lord of the Sith granted my wish, as he's now running for Mayor of Odessa.

Darth Vader is among the candidates vying for the post of Mayor in the Ukrainian port city of Odessa.  He joins Peking Duck and a man calling himself Putin in the leadership race.

Unfortunately, things are running about as smoothly as last time.  Follow over the jump for the Sith Lord's misfortunes.

Colbert and Noah explain Pelosi's announcement of the impeachment inquiry opening

I concluded Slotkin and Stevens join calls for impeachment inquiry by typing "Now more Americans will be watching news about the inquiry than watching "Chernobyl" on HBO Go or Amazon Channels.  I'll probably be one of them."  I then watched three monologues and a cold open about the news.  In the first monologue, Stephen Colbert tells his audience Buckle Up America: Pelosi Moving Forward With Trump Impeachment Inquiry.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi quoted founding father Benjamin Franklin today in her speech announcing the beginning of an official impeachment inquiry against President Trump.

Good thing the studio audience didn't buckle up.  Otherwise, they wouldn't have been able to give Nancy Pelosi a 40-second standing ovation for announcing the inquiry.

While Colbert's audience had the best reaction, Trevor Noah had the better explanation in Trump Pressures Ukraine to Investigate Biden & Impeachment Looms.

Nancy Pelosi announces a formal impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump after a whistleblower complaint alleged the president pressured Ukraine to dig up dirt on Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

As promised, Noah's monologue the next day examined the memorandum of the call in Trump’s Ukraine Call Released.

The White House releases a memo of Trump’s potentially impeachable call to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, and Democrats and Republicans predictably paint the call record along party lines.

As FiveThirtyEight wrote about the memo (it's not really a transcript), If This Is Trump’s Best Case, The Ukraine Scandal Is Looking Really Bad For Him.  Also, the real thing as almost a bad and as funny as The Late Show with Stephen Colbert's fantasy of it, Trump's Call With Ukraine Leader Sounds A Lot Like Blackmail.

The Late Show has obtained this exclusive audio recording of President Donald Trump's call with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

It sounds like blackmail, but it's more likely to be extortion.  Either one is a crime.

I have one more humorous post about the scandal planned for tomorrow.  Stay tuned.

War, Death, and Destruction from Reuters for August 25, 2014

I titled last night's news summary on Daily Kos Overnight News Digest: Death, Disaster, Good news for business, and the Emmys.  I already passed along the Emmy Awards update from Reuters and even that couldn't escape the specter of Death with the Robin Williams tribute, so it's time for the death and destruction.

First, stories about three of the four topics that Kunstler wrote about in this week's missive of DOOM, Chill Winds, Ukraine, ISIS, and Israel-Gaza.

Slim chance of progress as Russian and Ukrainian leaders meet
By Alexei Anishchuk
MINSK Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:16pm EDT

(Reuters) - Divided by mistrust and mutual recriminations, the Russian and Ukrainian leaders will hold rare talks on Tuesday that offer only a slim hope of progress towards ending five months of separatist war in Ukraine.

Since Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko last met on June 6 in France, Ukraine has turned the tide of the conflict and largely encircled pro-Russian rebels holding out in two cities in the east of the former Soviet republic.

But the diplomatic crisis has only deepened, especially since the downing of a Malaysian airliner over rebel-held territory last month with the loss of 298 lives.

This was the most read story on Reuters last night.  My Ukrainian and Russian readers can make of it what they will.  And, yes, I have lots of readers from both countries.  Ukraine and Russia are top two non-U.S. sources of readers for the blog this month, and Russia is the largest foreign portion of the audience in the history of the blog; Ukraine is in eighth, and will pass France for seventh at current rates in a few months.

Follow over the jump for the stories about war, death, and destruction from Iraq, Gaza, Congo, and elsewhere that made headlines last night.

Seth Meyers takes closer looks at the State of the Union and Russian invasion of Ukraine

I approved of Colbert's writers' judgement in a footnote to Colbert's live monologue after the State of the Union plus reactions from Kimmel and FiveThirtyEight.

I don't know if that was a fair summary of the speech, but it sure was a good highlight reel of the evening's funnier moments...Excluding Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert heckling Biden. I think Stephen and his writers made the right decision to ignore "Bizarro Betty and Veronica" except for connecting Greene to mental health. That could have come off as meaner, but I'm not very sympathetic to her.

Seth Meyers' writers had no such compunction, as the pair's antics played a featured role in Biden Warns Putin "Has No Idea What's Coming," Greene & Boebert Heckle SOTU: A Closer Look.

Seth takes a closer look at President Biden using his first State of the Union address to condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and warn him that he has no idea what the U.S. and its allies will do next.

On the one hand, I think this sketch worked as a fair summary of Biden's speech, at least concerning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the other, Seth couldn't resist Boebert and Greene as easy comedy targets. I just hope his prediction that they will eventually turn on each other comes true. If so, it would be life imitating art, or at least reality TV.

Seth returned to the well of the State of the Union in the next day's Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Scolds High School Students for Wearing Masks: A Closer Look.

Seth takes a closer look at the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, berating high school students for wearing masks while Fox News continues to attack Biden's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

I think that mades five times that Seth made fun of Chuck Schumer's false start. I also think that's enough.

Seth made fun of Greene even before the State of the Union, as Putin Rattles World with Nuclear Threat as Trump Calls Him Smart Again: A Closer Look opened with her appearances at CPAC and another political conference.

Seth takes a closer look at Vladimir Putin rattling the world by raising the alert status of Russia's nuclear forces as Republicans gathered for the Conservative Political Action Conference and refused to condemn Trump for praising Putin.

I think Greene was showing her true colors, even if she's denying them. The same with Mike Lindell, who showed why he deserved his two Razzies.

Not only was "Absolute Proof" the worst political film of 2020, but, according to the Razzies, the Worst Picture overall last year. I can't think of a more deserving stinker of a bad (faith) documentary.

As for Vladimir Putin making nuclear threats, that's why I wrote "Here's to the Russian invasion of Ukraine not spiraling out of control to prevent next year's parade from happening" yesterday. It's also not how I want him to be the Most Interesting Man in the World.

Speaking of Trump calling Putin "smart," I'm not the least bit surprised. I think it's just another example of Trump and Putin's Bad Bromance and why the FBI investigated Trump possibly worked for Russia.

After all that, I'm ready to leave reality and search for a good fantasy. Stay tuned for the Sunday entertainment feature.

Debbie Dingell discusses Ukraine and the State of the Union Address on Fat Tuesday

Happy Paczki Day AKA Fat Tuesday! Despite today being a fun holiday, serious events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine are taking place. WDIV/Click On Detroit's Michigan US Rep. Debbie Dingell on Russia-Ukraine, Biden's 1st State of the Union speech reflects that.

It's a Fat Tuesday tradition, with Michigan U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell stopping by WDIV. She talks with Rhonda and Evrod about what's happening in Ukraine, and what she's expecting for President Biden's first State of the Union speech on Tuesday night.

In addition to the war, which is taking place next door to Poland and causing refugees to flee to the home of the paczki, Representative Dingell expects the pandemic and inflation will be major subjects of tonight's speech. I plan on blogging about the address and reactions to it tomorrow.

Speaking of holiday traditions, I'm continuing my tradition of using WXYZ's location reporting with today's 'Paczki Day everyone is Polish.' Metro Detroiters wait in long lines for Paczki. I couldn't be "all DOOM all the time" today.


Alex Bozarjian mentioned that this is her first Paczki Day. Welcome to Detroit, Alex! Glad you're enjoying the local cuisine and culture!

Speaking of local culture, today may be Paczki Day in Detroit and elsewhere Polish immigrants settled, but it's better known as Mardi Gras, most famously celebrated in New Orleans. Since I like marching music, I'm closing with Southern University's Human Jukebox at Bacchus parade from WWLTV.

Southern University is one of the most sought after bands for Mardi Gras parades. They entered the Convention Center to huge applause at Bacchus.

That was fun to watch, but not as great to listen to. I might have a better sounding video of the Human Jukebox this Friday for Marching Music Day. Stay tuned.

CNBC explains 'What Happens If There’s A Nuclear Attack' and 'The Big Business of Nuclear Weapons Manufacturing'

I commented on the danger of the international situation in Seth Meyers takes closer looks at the State of the Union and Russian invasion of Ukraine last month.

As for Vladimir Putin making nuclear threats, that's why I wrote "Here's to the Russian invasion of Ukraine not spiraling out of control to prevent next year's parade from happening" yesterday. It's also not how I want him to be the Most Interesting Man in the World.

Since I would be remiss as a doomer blogger in not examining the topic, especially when it's timely, I'm sharing CNBC's What Happens If There’s A Nuclear Attack.

Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed by the American Psychological Association said they worry the invasion of Ukraine could potentially lead to nuclear war and they fear that we could be at the beginning stages of World War III.

Researchers estimate there are about 12,700 nuclear weapons spread between nine countries, with the United States and Russia holding the majority, but experts consider an attack to be unlikely. Watch the video above to learn how a nuclear attack could play out.

All of this is horrifying, but it's not news to me. My interest in events that could cause the end of civilization began when I was eleven or so years old when I started reading about nuclear war and nuclear weapons. Macabre, but learning about it made me less anxious, as I could use my knowledge as a source of power over my fears. That's still true, as it's one of the reasons I blog about possible causes of collapse and decline as well as ways to forestall them. They are still frightening and fascinating and knowing about them gives me a sense of control, however illusory.

The first video showed Alejandra Munoz of PAX mentioning that the nuclear states are still spending money updating their arsenals. CNBC followed up on that in The Big Business of Nuclear Weapons Manufacturing.

Defense companies secure billions of dollars every year from government contracts to maintain and construct nuclear weapons. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. government could spend $634 billion between 2021–2030 on nuclear forces. Many of these companies like Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have seen a rise in stock prices amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Watch the video above to learn about the companies profiting off of nuclear weapons and how the investor community feels about it.

This video reminded me that my father worked for aerospace and defense companies during most of my youth, so I benefited for spending for weapons growing up. The company that he worked for the longest, Litton Industries, no longer exists as an independent company but is now split between Northrop Grumman and Huntington Ingalls, both of which CNBC mentioned in their video, particularly Northrop Grumman. My father actually started off working in the Ingalls Shipbuilding division before moving to Litton Guidance and Control, now part of Northrop Grumman, so his legacy lives on in two companies.

Enough nostalgia. I have work to do, as final exams began yesterday. Stay tuned for a retrospective tomorrow on Throwback Thursday.

'SNL' lampoons Fox News in its Ukraine cold open

Last weekend, "Saturday Night Live" opened with the Ukrainian Chorus Dumka of New York. Last night, "SNL" put on a full skit for Fox News Ukraine Cold Open.

Fox News' Laura Ingraham (Kate McKinnon) and Tucker Carlson (Alex Moffat) host a Ukrainian Invasion Celebration Spectacular with special guests Donald Trump (James Austin Johnson), Steven Seagal (Bowen Yang), Donald Trump Jr. (Mikey Day) and Kimberly Gui[l]foyle (Cecily Strong).

Alex Moffat's Tucker Carlson impression is dead-on and reminds me that I still haven't watched John Oliver's video about Carlson yet. James Austin Johnson's Trump is also very good and enough to make me not miss Alec Baldwin. Kate McKinnon as Laura Ingraham, Cecily Strong as Kimberly Guilfoyle, and Mikey Day as Donald Trump Jr. all looked the part and Strong certainly captured Guilfoyle's energy on stage. She should sing more often. Seeing Bowen Yang as Steven Seagal reminded me that my ex-wife went to school with Seagal's older sister in Fullerton, California, and she was not impressed with him at the time. As for the real victims being the oligarchs, that's very on-brand for Fox News. So was the list of sponsors, which made me realize that the advertisers on MSNBC cater to a slightly younger viewership. I don't feel quite as old now.

Follow over the jump for last night's Weekend Update.

Colbert's live monologue after the State of the Union plus reactions from Kimmel and FiveThirtyEight

In the middle of Debbie Dingell discusses Ukraine and the State of the Union Address on Fat Tuesday, I told my readers "I plan on blogging about the address and reactions to it" today. Three of my favorite sources came through with reactions to the speech, beginning with Stephen Colbert Goes LIVE After Biden's First SOTU Speech | A Rousing Call To National Greatness.

Stephen Colbert delivers a live monologue following President Biden's first State of the Union address, where the POTUS touted his covid response, underlined America's steadfast support for the people of Ukraine, and unveiled his "Unity Agenda" of domestic policies.

I don't know if that was a fair summary of the speech, but it sure was a good highlight reel of the evening's funnier moments.* Still, it did capture that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pandemic, and inflation were major subjects of tonight's speech, just as Representative Debbie Dingell predicted yesterday, along with infrastructure. No surprises there.

Jimmy Kimmel started with the State of the Union then moved on to other topics in Trump’s 'Tough on Russia' Fairy Tale, Biden Addresses the Nation & Putin's Black Belt Gets Stripped.

Tonight President Biden delivered his First State of the Union speech, Marco Rubio decided to skip because of the COVID testing requirement, Biden did his best to come up with something to uplift all of us, Vladimir Putin has been suspended as the honorary President of the International Judo Federation and stripped of his honorary black belt in Taekwondo, Hollywood is fighting back by not showing the new Batman movie in Russia, a feisty fella from Texas went as far as to join the Russian army, OJ Simpson weighed in with his thoughts on Putin & Trump, Donald Trump Jr is busy complaining about FEMA guidance, 62% of Americans believe that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was still in charge, a new edition of Cancel Nation, and clarinetist Doreen Ketchens sits in with the Cleto and the Cletones!

I think Kimmel and his writers decided making fun of Vladimir Putin, the Most Interesting Man in the World made for better comedy. I can't say I blame them.

FiveThirtyEight opened with a funny cold open to Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, making for a good transition from comedy to serious reporting.

It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech. Galen asked the FiveThirtyEight crew what the key takeaways were in Biden’s optimistic State of the Union. They also analyzed the outcomes of the Texas primaries as the results came in in real time.

The panelists seemed confused by Biden bringing up Build Back Better and voting rights, both of which failed because of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, especially Manchin. They looked and sounded more enthusiastic about the Texas primary elections. I'll take that as playing to their strengths. I might have something to say about the winners of the Texas primaries after World Wildlife Day and Marching Music Day. Stay tuned.

*Excluding Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert heckling Biden. I think Stephen and his writers made the right decision to ignore "Bizarro Betty and Veronica" except for connecting Greene to mental health. That could have come off as meaner, but I'm not very sympathetic to her.

Food prices and unrest, a story I tell my students

Yesterday, I showed my students the most important graphic from Vice's The Math That Predicted the Revolutions Sweeping the Globe Right Now, which I linked to in Third American doctor infected and other Ebola news.

It's happening in Ukraine, Venezuela, Thailand, Bosnia, Syria, and beyond. Revolutions, unrest, and riots are sweeping the globe. The near-simultaneous eruption of violent protest can seem random and chaotic; inevitable symptoms of an unstable world. But there's at least one common thread between the disparate nations, cultures, and people in conflict, one element that has demonstrably proven to make these uprisings more likely: high global food prices.

Just over a year ago, complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute warned us that if food prices continued to climb, so too would the likelihood that there would be riots across the globe. Sure enough, we're seeing them now. The paper's author, Yaneer Bar-Yam, charted the rise in the FAO food price index—a measure the UN uses to map the cost of food over time—and found that whenever it rose above 210, riots broke out worldwide. It happened in 2008 after the economic collapse, and again in 2011, when a Tunisian street vendor who could no longer feed his family set himself on fire in protest.

Bar-Yam built a model with the data, which then predicted that something like the Arab Spring would ensue just weeks before it did. Four days before Mohammed Bouazizi's self-immolation helped ignite the revolution that would spread across the region, NECSI submitted a government report that highlighted the risk that rising food prices posed to global stability. Now, the model has once again proven prescient—2013 saw the third-highest food prices on record, and that's when the seeds for the conflicts across the world were sown.

"I have a long list of the countries that have had major social unrest in the past 18 months consistent with our projections," Bar-Yam tells me. "The food prices are surely a major contributor---our analysis says that 210 on the FAO index is the boiling point and we have been hovering there for the past 18 months."

None of this should be news.  Food riots have been the start of revolutions in the modern world going at least as far back as the French Revolution, as I pointed out in Today is the anniversary of the Women's March on Versailles.  Still, it's a lesson that bears repeating--starving poor people under a repressive regime is a recipe for disaster.

Follow over the jump for more, including an update on the graphs.

The wildlife of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone for World Wildlife Day 2022

Happy World Wildlife Day! I am taking my cue from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to re-examine the wildlife inhabiting the exclusion zone around Chernobyl. I begin with Channel 4 News in the UK's Chernobyl: inside the exclusion zone.


Channel 4 reuploaded this clip in 2019 and updated the description.

In 2015, we travelled to the Chernobyl exclusion zone. While the accident was a human catastrophe, it's providing scientists a unique living experiment in how nature copes with radiation..

As I wrote in 2015's Radioactive wolves: student sustainability video festival 35, "If anyone wants to see a post-human, post-apocalyptic landscape, one doesn't have to watch 'The Walking Dead.' One simply has to view images of the exclusion zone around Chernobyl."

I knew about the wolves and boars inside the exclusion zone, but the presence of Przewalski's horses and European bison surprised me. It turned out humans deliberately introduced both the horses and the bison, but the latter introduction happened in Belarus and the animals wandered into Ukraine's exclusion zone on their own. The giant catfish surprised me less, as I've seen the effect of people feeding fish in an area protected from fishing. My family used to visit a fish hatchery on vacation and feed them our leftover bait. Those were the largest rainbow trout I've ever seen!

Channel 4 showed that the removal of almost all resident humans has had a positive effect on biodiversity within the exclusion zone. What about the radiation? The Animals of Chernobyl by The New York Times shows the deleterious effects of radiation on the smaller organisms.

Biologist Timothy Mousseau has been studying the lasting effects of radiation on the flora and fauna of Chernobyl, Ukraine.
...
After the Chernobyl disaster humans haven't been allowed to live in the vicinity. That hasn't stopped animals and wildlife from moving into the radioactive area.

While the absence of humans is allowing the megafauna to return and apparently thrive, the smaller organisms, like the insects, spiders, and birds, are showing the effects of the persistent radiation.

Because Science looked at the research in its own smart but sensational way in Did Chernobyl Create Mutant Animals?

It's been over three decades since the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl, and while the area remains unsafe for humans to return for long term inhabitation, the wildlife has remained and undergone its own changes in that time. While many might image that sort of radiation would result in bizarre mutations like two-headed deer or giant insects, could the aftermath of such an event actually be positive for the plants and animals that remained? Kyle ventures into the Exclusion Zone to take a closer look in this week's Because Science!

I'm going to say the same thing about Because Science, which I last embedded here in 2015, that I did about WatchMojo, that it's "high-quality, well-researched clickbait," albeit even better researched. As for the conclusion, I agree with Kyle Hill; it needs more research. Here's to hoping that the war hasn't destroyed the populations of large animals and caused even more devastation than the nuclear accident. I'm not optimistic about that.

That's it for World Wildlife Day. Stay tuned for Marching Music Day tomorrow.

Meyers, Colbert, and Noah take closer looks at impeachment moving to the Senate and Parnas evidence to begin season 4, episode 2 of 'The Worst Wing'

After two days covering the January Democratic debate, it's time to check in on episode 2 of season 4 of "The Worst Wing."  Season 2 featured both an expected return to the story line of the second half of season 3, impeachment, along with a plot twist, Lev Parnas being interviewed on both "Anderson Cooper 360" and "The Rachel Maddow Show."  The Late Show with Stephen Colbert opened last night's show with a musical number to make light of the situation, Lev Parnas Sings!

Indicted Rudy Giuliani associate Lev Parnas is no longer working for the President, and he's singing like a bird to the press.

Ha, ha, ha!  That makes for a good introduction to all three talk show hosts examining the past two days' events.

I'll get back to Colbert after I share Bombshell Evidence Emerges as House Sends Impeachment Articles to Senate: A Closer Look from Late Night with Seth Meyers.

Seth takes a closer look at the House voting to send the articles of impeachment against President Trump as damning new evidence against Trump’s henchmen emerges.

Trump has been airing his grievances about light bulbs and toilets since before Festivus, so he's been at it for two months now.  I guess it distracts him and his supporters from impeachment.

Trevor Noah examined most of the same themes the next night in The Senate Impeachment Trial & Lev Parnas’s Maddow Chat | The Daily Show along with his own personal perspective.

Senators get sworn in as President Trump’s impeachment trial begins, and Rudy Giuliani associate Lev Parnas gives a bombshell interview that implicates Trump’s entire team in the Ukraine scandal.

Trevor couldn't resist the toilet and dishwasher jokes, either.  I don't blame him; they're ridiculous.  They also expose Trump's contempt for environmental regulation that inconveniences him.

By the way, my friend Nonnie drew the connection among Parnas, impeachment, and toilets in The First Strike.


I hope Parnas testifies and knocks down the pins, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

To conclude tonight's entry, I'm returning to The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.  Watch Parnas Implicates Trump & Co. In Ukraine Crimes, And He Has Receipts.

According to former Giuliani associate Lev Parnas, President Trump "knew exactly what was going on" as Parnas pressured Ukraine officials to take actions that would bolster Trump's chances at being reelected in 2020.

Colbert did a better job of riffing off Parnas's response that every time that Trump denies knowing him, Parnas will release another photo of the two of them together.  The list of Republicans Parnas has met looks very impressive, if not good for them.

That's it for Episode 2 of "The Worst Wing."  Episode 3 should begin next week when the impeachment trial in the Senate really gets going.  Stay tuned.

Samantha Bee updates Ginni Thomas's texts and Alexander Vindman's account of the 'perfect call'

I'm revisiting Stephen Colbert on missing Trump White House phone records and Ginni Thomas's texts updates the attempt to overturn the 2020 election today with Samantha Bee's New Evidence From the January 6th Investigation Continues Not to Disappoint.

Missing emails, a seven hour gap in phone logs, and a text chain to overthrow the election. This season of True Crime: January 6th is riveting!

This was an even more complete and focused account than Colbert included in his monologue last week, so I'm glad I shared it. It also focuses more on the Thomases and less on The Former Guy, even though he would have been the beneficiary of Ginni Thomas's actions. It also gives me another reason to dislike Justice Thomas beyond his history with Monsanto.

Bee also updated Vox explains the phone call that could get Trump impeached (it did) and Time names the public servants who testified at the impeachment hearings 2019's Guardians of the Year with The Spy Who Called Me: Alexander Vindman and the Call That Sparked the Russian War on Ukraine.

Sam sits down with the star of Trump’s first impeachment hearing, Alexander Vindman to talk about the infamous 2019 Trump/Zelenskyy phone call that paved the way for Putin’s war on Ukraine.

This piece was produced by Razan Ghalayini with Adam Howard and edited by Andrew Mendelson.

I think Americans need to be reminded about how The Former Guy's first impeachment related not only to 2020 election and Joe Biden, but also led to Putin's war on Ukraine. Also, I can relate to Bee saying "we all have to be watchdogs against corruption and engage in protecting our democracy at the local, state, and federal level. Oh, my God, why does it end up being the moral of every single piece I do?" That's the moral of a lot of my posts as well and why I turn to comedians like Bee as inspirations for my blogging. It's an important message.

That's it for today's civics lesson through comedy. Stay tuned for another retrospective tomorrow for Throwback Thursday. Natural disasters, anyone?

Debbie Dingell delivers paczki and talks about democracy on WDIV in Detroit for Fat Tuesday

Happy Paczki Day AKA Fat Tuesday! Like last year, I begin with Rep. Debbie Dingell delivers paczkis to Local 4 (and tells us what she's working on), an annual tradition of the representative and WDIV/Click On Detroit.

In a well-loved tradition, U.S. Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell brought paczkis to our newsroom for Fat Tuesday -- and she's updating us on what she's currently working on.

I'm glad Dingell is settling into her not-so-new district after the game of redistricting musical chairs that shuffled Michigan's U.S. representatives around last year. I'm also glad that she pointed out that the war in Ukraine has become a war for democracy and that Biden's trip takes him to Poland, where he can eat paczki in their home country. Euronews reports on his arrival in US President Joe Biden in Poland after a surprise visit to Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden arrived in Poland Monday night after making a surprise visit to Kyiv in a show of solidarity with Ukraine just days before the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion.

Looking forward to writing more about Biden's trip in coming days.

I conclude by returning to metro Detroit with CBS Detroit's Detroit bakery prepares for Paczki Day.

On Tuesday, Feb. 21, hundreds of the Polish pasties will be sold, and one bakery in Detroit is preparing for the influx of customers[.]

It wasn't until I moved to Michigan and discovered paczki that I found out why today is Fat Tuesday. Here's to spreading that knowledge to my readers.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy named Time's Person of the Year for 2022

It's time, pun intended, to begin my look back at the year about to end with the Today Show's reveal that Volodymyr Zelenskyy Is Time's Person Of The Year For 2022.*

Edward Felsenthal, editor-in-chief of Time, exclusively reveals on TODAY the magazine’s pick for its 2022 Person of the Year: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the spirit of Ukraine.

I'll get to the Women of Iran as Heroes of the Year tomorrow. In the meantime, watch Time Magazine's own video, Volodymyr Zelensky and the Spirit of Ukraine: TIME Person of the Year 2022.

Zelensky’s success as a wartime leader has relied on the fact that courage is contagious. It spread through Ukraine’s political leadership in the first days of the invasion, as everyone realized the President had stuck around. If that seems like a natural thing for a leader to do in a crisis, consider historical precedent. Only six months earlier, the President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani—a far more experienced leader than Zelensky—fled his capital as Taliban forces approached. In 2014, one of Zelensky’s predecessors, Viktor Yanukovych, ran away from Kyiv as protesters closed in on his residence; he still lives in Russia today. Early in the Second World War, the leaders of Albania, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Poland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Yugoslavia, among others, fled the advance of the German Wehrmacht and lived out the war in exile.

There wasn’t much in Zelensky’s biography to predict his willingness to stand and fight. He had never served in the military or shown much interest in its affairs. He had only been President since April 2019. His professional instincts derived from a lifetime as an actor on the stage, a specialist in improv comedy, and a producer in the movie business.

That experience turned out to have its advantages. Zelensky was adaptable, trained not to lose his nerve under pressure. He knew how to read a crowd and react to its moods and expectations. Now his audience was the world. He was determined not to let them down.

I think Zelenskyy is an excellent choice and I hope this honor ages better than Elon Musk as Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2021. That's not looking as good now as it did then. On the other hand, Lizzo as Time's 2019 Entertainer of the Year still holds up well three years later.

Speaking of Entertainer of the Year, I'll get to them for the Sunday entertainment feature after I write about the Women of Iran as Heroes of the Year tomorrow and the Innovator of the Year on Saturday for Nobel Prize Day. Stay tuned.

*I'll be frank; I selected this video and placed it first as much for its preview image as for its content. I'm not above such petty considerations in my blogging.