Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Pataki packs it in

The pattern of another debate, another dropout from the GOP contest that I pointed out when Lindsey Graham suspended his campaign has finally been broken.  The Associated Press reports Pataki Announces He's Dropping White House Bid.

Former New York Gov. George Pataki is telling supporters he's ready to drop his bid for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
Yeah, George, I have faith that the American people will elect the right person, too, but it won't be any of your fellow Republicans.

That's the unfiltered farewell, which is an ad for the other establishment-oriented candidates.  ABC News has some of the story behind he announcement in George Pataki Drops Out of 2016 Presidential Race.
Pataki announced his candidacy this past May. "Our system is broken," he said in his announcement video. "Washington has grown too big, too powerful, too expensive and too intrusive. This is exactly what the founding fathers feared."

But he failed to gain traction in the polls, averaging 1 percent. He did not make it onto the main stage for any of the GOP debates, and was eliminated from the Fox Business Network undercard debate.

Financially, Pataki's campaign was struggling, spending more than he was taking in. The most recent financial disclosure showed him raising $134,000, but spending $348,000.
So, he had essentially no support, he was going to be cut off from free exposure, and he was out of money.*  All three of those are good reasons to get out of the contest.  Honestly, he lasted longer than a lot of people thought.  I expected him to drop out when Bobby Jindal left.  He managed to last an extra two months past that.

So, who benefits from Pataki leaving and who drops out next?  The answer to the first question is the most moderate GOP candidate left, which is Chris Christie.  It won't be much, but it might bring him third place and another delegate in New Hampshire.

As for who is dropping out next, look at this photo from the second debate.

All of them are now gone except Santorum.  I've said farewell, Frothy before.  I'll be happy to say it again.

*Pataki was so broke that he used up his equal time from NBC for Trump appearing on Saturday Night Live to air his departure announcement.  Well, it was use it or lose it, so he used it on his way out.  Speaking of using things, Pataki's drink selections can be reused for Trump and Clinton, who are both New Yorkers.  Yes, I'm a good environmentalist; I recycle.


  1. we're running out of people to drink for!

    1. I'm not worried. There will still be 10 people in two debates next month on Fox Business (11 if Rand Paul doesn't take his ball and go home for not making the prime time event). Also, there are still three people at the Democratic debate a few days later. That's just January. I fully expect to have at least six Republicans and two Democrats at the final debates in March.

    2. if the GOP hopes for a brokered convention - at this moment the ONLY thing they have against Trump's polling numbers and audience support - they need six to eight candidates sticking to the whole primary cycle and pulling enough voters away from Trump to deny him enough At-Large and Delegate wins at the state levels. They'll really need Cruz, Rubio, Carson and/or Christie to each garner over 10 percent of voters for all the proportional states, and for someone other than Trump to win All-In states like Florida and Ohio.

    3. That's if Trump continues to dominate both heading into and out of Super Tuesday and the rest of the March primaries. I think it's just as likely that it comes down to a three-way contest among Trump, Cruz, and Rubio with Cruz beating Trump in areas where evangelicals are strong. Should that happen, Cruz would be in the driver's seat. He'd be the one the establishment would have to decided to support or defeat. They might end up holding their collective nose and grudgingly get on board. Trump would not be VP in that situation. On the other hand, if Trump is number one and Cruz is number two, Cruz would gladly play second banana to Trump on a national ticket. Stopping Trump would either take what you propose or one of Cruz or Rubio pulling ahead of him.