Friday, February 26, 2016

Second article on Michigan polls

Sanders and Clinton shaking hands
Hillary Clinton, seen here at the most recent debate with Bernie Sanders, leads the Democratic primary contest in Michigan by thirty-four points according to a Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit Poll released February 25, 2016.
Win McNamee/Getty Images.
Clinton and Trump maintain double-digit leads in latest Michigan polls
Two polls released this week show both former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York real estate magnate Donald Trump holding their leads in Michigan ten days in advance of the state's presidential primary on March 8.  The polls indicate that Clinton and Trump appear likely to receive more than twice as many votes as their closest competition, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for Clinton and Florida Senator Marco Rubio for Trump.

The Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit Poll released Thursday, February 25, surveyed both Democrats and Republicans.  It showed that Clinton leads Sanders by thirty-four percent in the Michigan Democratic primary contest, sixty-five percent to thirty-one percent with only four percent undecided.
On the Republican side, Trump has maintained his double-digit lead over Rubio and the rest of the remaining field.  Trailing Rubio are Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, and neurosurgeon Ben Carson, formerly of Michigan, now from Florida.
More at the link, including highlights of the most recent Target Insyght poll and quotes about both the Democratic and Republican contests.

Follow over the link for my recycled commentary on the Democratic contest in Michigan.

I quoted the earlier poll in my response to The Decline and Fall of Hillary Clinton at The Archdruid Report.
Clinton's strategy is working, at least in the primaries.  While Sanders is winning the Internet, where the youth are, Clinton is winning the news media, which her supporters watch and read.  The result is that Clinton is leading Sanders in Michigan.

Those same polls show Trump leading in Michigan among all demographic groups and in all parts of the state.
Greer was skeptical.
Pinku-sensei, Clinton may be leading Sanders in Michigan, but she's falling behind in a number of other states. I expect her to get the nomination, but that's not yet a done deal by any means -- especially if more of Clinton's rich friends open their clueless mouths.
"A number of other states" won't be enough to put Sanders in front of Clinton, especially if Public Policy Polling is right.  Based on their numbers, I wrote the following at Kunstler's blog in response to Between the Loathsome and the Unspeakable.
“Hillary wins the black and Hispanic vote and a big majority of womens’ votes.” –JHK

The African-American vote looks to boost Hillary in the majority of the Democratic primaries coming up in the next two weeks.  Polling shows that she is likely to win the majority of states between now and March 8th.  Sanders has his home state of Vermont and neighboring Massachussetts locked up.  He has a good but not great chances in Minnesota and Colorado.  For some reason, he's going after Oklahoma.  Beyond those states, he doesn't seem to have much of a chance, even in heavily Hispanic Texas.

As for my home state of Michigan, he's likely to lose that by double digits on the strength of the African-American vote, or so the polling says.  That's despite Sanders being greeted by packed house in Ypsilanti last week.  The college kids loved him!
Based on these and other polls along with Facebook data, I expect Sanders to win Washtenaw County, Isabella County,Ingham County, and the Upper Peninsula, but that's about it.


  1. After South Carolina where Clinton DRUBBED Sanders among blacks and women voting blocs, I doubt Sanders can challenge well in the states where those are significant blocs (much of the Deep South and parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest).

    If Hillary gets 9 of the next 11 states in Super Tuesday, Sanders should just concede. He's nowhere in the lead with the next big five states coming up March 15th.

    1. Maybe he should, but he won't. He's going to keep going until Hillary has accumulated enough delegates or he runs out of money. I think the former will happen first.