Mark Zandi explains 'What Broke U.S. Recession Indicators' on CNBC

I made the following observation in Wall Street Journal and CNBC explain 'Why a 2022 Recession Would Be Unlike Any Other' this past July.

The GDP numbers may signal a recession, but consumers and possibly even businesses aren't showing signs of it. We may end up having a "Wile E. Coyote moment" where both look down and realize they are over an abyss and then start falling, but that hasn't happened yet.

That still hasn't happened, at least where jobs and inflation are concerned. The result has been that despite GDP declining (slightly) during the first half of 2022, no recession has been declared. CNBC examined this paradoxical situation in What Broke U.S. Recession Indicators | Mark Zandi.

Moody's Analytics' chief economist Mark Zandi cautions that a recession may be on the horizon.

In an interview with CNBC's Andrea Miller, Zandi said a recession did not occur in the first half of this year. Zandi called employment levels the "most important indicator[s]" of a recession. With unemployment at the low rate of 3.5%, he doesn't buy the view that two back-to-back quarters of negative growth alone are sufficient to make for a recession.

But Zandi did warn that he expects layoffs to increase in the days ahead.

I made my forecast of a possible recession in July as well.

I expect it would be like the recession I predicted at the end of 2017 to happen by the end of the last decade, not the one we actually got in 2020 because of the pandemic.

By the way, there won't be a recession called this year for another reason third quarter GDP is estimated to have increased 1.9% to 2.8%. Good news, everyone, but not enough for me to post Professor Farnsworth.