Examiner.com article on Clinton leading Trump by 17% in Michigan

Hillary Clinton, seen here campaigning in New Jersey, has a seventeen percent lead over Donald Trump in Michigan according to the latest poll.
Photo by Getty Images/Spencer Platt

Poll shows Clinton leading Trump by seventeen points in Michigan

A poll of Michigan and six other battleground states released Wednesday, June 29, shows presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in Michigan and six other states.  The poll, commissioned by Ballotpedia and conducted by Evolving Strategies, showed Clinton leading Trump in a two-way race by seventeen points in the Great Lakes State, the largest margin in the seven states surveyed.

Evolving Strategies also asked about voters' preferences in a three-way contest including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson.  Clinton maintained her seventeen-point lead over Trump in Michigan and also had a thirty-seven point lead over Johnson.
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In a two-way contest, the poll reported fifty percent of those surveyed in Michigan supported Clinton, while thirty-three percent favored Trump with sixteen percent preferring neither of them and one percent refusing to answer.  In a three-way race, Clinton's support dropped to forty-seven percent and Trump's to thirty percent, while Johnson earned fourteen percent.  Eight percent favored none of the three while two percent refused to answer.
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Silver included the poll in his presidential election forecast.  As a result, he found that Clinton has an eighty percent chance of winning the election and a nearly ninety-one percent chance of winning Michigan.  Trump had just over nine percent, while Johnson had a two-tenths of a percent chance of winning the state.  Silver projected that Clinton would get about fifty percent of the vote in the state, Trump thirty-eight percent, and Johnson nearly eleven percent.

Click on the link at the headline for more, including a video from Wochit.  Unfortunately, it's not this one: Kasich Says He Is Beating Trump In Polls.

John Kasich dropped from the presidential race nearly two months ago, but his campaign is still arguing that he would be the best Republican candidate to take on Hillary Clinton -- not Donald Trump. The Ohio governor's top political adviser claimed Wednesday that polls show Kasich beating Clinton in swing states and Trump getting crushed. Kasich has not endorsed Trump and refuses to speak at the presumptive nominee's convention, even though it will take place in his home state.

Good luck trying to get the convention delegates to Dump Trump and nominate you, Governor.

Stay tuned for a Canada Day entry.

Colbert clowns as Cruz and Kasich capitulate

I already wrote "Good riddance, Agenda 21 paranoid" in response to Ted Cruz dropping out, but that wasn't a proper send-off.  Besides, John Kasich ended his campaign the next day.  He needs a good-bye, too.  I'm outsourcing that to Stephen Colbert, who does to Cruz, Kasich, and (again) to Carly Fiorina what he did to Ben Carson, give a "Hunger Games" good-bye in Hungry For Power Games: Dyin' Ted.

Two more Republican tributes have finally fallen, leaving Trump the GOP victor.

Everyone, a toast to the victor!


I think we'll be seeing a lot of "cartoon Donald Trump" between now and November.

Follow over the jump for drinks for the fallen.

Drum corps for the Pennsylvania and Connecticut primaries

I wrote "The next installment of this series should be next Tuesday, when I'll feature corps from Connecticut and Pennsylvania" in the conclusion to Drum corps for the New York primary.  It's "next Tuesday," so it's time to follow through on that promise.

I expected Trump and Clinton to win their primaries last week in New York and both did by convincing margins, Trump winning 60% and Clinton winning 58%, ending the streak of Sanders and Cruz victories in Utah, Idaho, Wisconsin, and other states ending in Wyoming.  New York didn't turn out to be another Michigan.  As I wrote, "As a Sanders supporter, I'd say I would be disappointed, if not surprised, but I don't even have high enough hopes for Sanders to really be disappointed."  Instead, I had my low expectations for his performance confirmed.

Both Clinton and Trump appear set to repeat their victories in tonight's states, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.  Of those, only Rhode Island looks favorable to Sanders, as it holds a "semi-closed" primary that allows independents to vote for one of the major parties, while the rest hold purely closed primaries.  Even so, both Clinton and Trump are leading in the most recent poll of the Ocean State.  That's the bad news.  The good news is that neither has a majority and there are lots of undecideds; Sanders and Kasich could still win the state.

Enough about the politics.  Time for my readers to enjoy the drum corps while they are waiting for the results.  I begin with The Cadets, who have hailed from Allentown, Pennsylvania since 2003.*  Here's a clip from their 2015 show, The Power of 10.

"The Power of 10" turned every yard line into a 10-yard line, and if you count up each of the number sequences in the corps’ “Mulholland Drive” ballad, you’ll come up with the number 10. Check out the Periodic Table of Elements to learn why the color guard was clad in neon colors. And any Romans in the audience had to be giddy every time there was an “X” prominently displayed in the drill formations. The entire production was goose bump inducing to the factor of … well, you know.

That wasn't even the most buzzworthy part of the show; this was: The Cadets 2015 Horn Feature.


It's been a long time since French horn bugles were in drum corps, so having actual French horns makes up for it.

Follow over the jump for the rest of the corps from the states involved in today's primary.

Examiner.com article on Sanders winning Michigan

Bernie Sanders, seen here at the Democratic debate in Flint, won the Michigan Democratic Primary in a narrow upset over Hillary Clinton.
Scott Olson/Getty Images

Sanders shocks in Michigan while Trump wins state but loses Washtenaw County

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont upset former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of New York in last night's Michigan Democratic Primary, beating her statewide by 1.5 percent of the total vote.  His margin in Washtenaw County was even greater at 11.7 percent.

"I am grateful to the people of Michigan for defying the pundits and pollsters and giving us their support," Sanders said in a statement quoted by the Detroit Free Press. "This is a critically important night. We came from 30 points down in Michigan and we're seeing the same kind of come-from-behind momentum all across America."

Washtenaw County also did its part in attempting an upset in the Michigan Republican Primary, giving Ohio Governor John Kasich a plurality of its votes to put him first in the county,  6.5 percent ahead of New York businessman Donald Trump.  Unfortunately for Kasich and his local supporters, he came in third statewide behind Trump and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

More at the link, including details of both races, including the delegate counts, and a video.

Personally, I am happy to have been wrong about my prediction that "'I expect Sanders to win Washtenaw County, Isabella County, Ingham County, and the Upper Peninsula, but that's about it.'  Add in Kalamazoo County to include all the big college towns in Michigan and that should about cover it."  Feel the Bern!

Examiner.com article on Kasich (maybe) pulling ahead of Trump in Michigan

John Kasich, seen here at the Fox News debate in Detroit, is ahead of Donald Trump in one poll of Michigan voters.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Most recently conducted poll shows Kasich ahead of Trump in Michigan

The first poll conducted entirely after the Fox News debate in Detroit showed New York real estate developer Donald Trump no longer leading in Michigan.  Instead, Ohio Governor John Kasich had gained a narrow lead in the race for the Republican nomination for President in the Great Lakes State.

The Columbus Dispatch reported the results of an American Research Group poll that surveyed 400 likely Republican voters on March 4 and March 5. It found Kasich the most popular choice with thirty-three percent, Trump in second with thirty-one percent, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in third with fifteen percent, and Marco Rubio of Florida in last with twelve percent.  It was the first survey of Michigan voters after both the debate and the Detroit News endorsement of Kasich for the March 8 Michigan Republican Presidential primary, both of which occurred on March 3.

FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver told readers in his live reporting of Saturday's primary returns that they should be skeptical of these findings.  He wrote that American Research Group was "not a highly-rated pollster," ranking near the bottom of his site's rankings.  They "sometimes post results that are way different from the pack," making them "interesting more often than they’re accurate."

More at the link, including a continuation of Nate's analysis, the results of two more polls, and a video of Kasich saying he thinks he'll do well in Michigan.  Yes, I'm pushing Kasich, but the news is actually in his favor.  Besides, if I were still a Republican, I'd vote for him.

Stay tuned for the Sunday entertainment entry, which may be delayed until anywhere between tomorrow and Thurssday.  That's happened before.

Examiner.com article on Rubio falling out of second in Michigan

Marco Rubio, seen here on the left of Donald Trump the other candidates at the Republican debate in Detroit, has fallen behind Ted Cruz in two polls, one of which also had John Kasich ahead of Rubio.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Rubio falls out of second in Michigan behind Cruz with Kasich gaining

While New York real estate developer Donald Trump still leads in Michigan, the race for second place continues to develop.  Two polls taken after Super Tuesday show that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has fallen out of second place and is being passed by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Governor John Kasich of Ohio, as Evangelicals and the youngest voters move from Rubio to Cruz, middle-aged voter shift from Rubio to Trump, and older voters change from Rubio to Kasich and Trump.

A poll of 1643 likely Republican primary voters by the Trafalgar Group conducted on March 2 and March 3 and released overnight between March 3 and March 4 found Trump leading with 41.87 percent, Cruz second at 20.45 percent, Kasich third with 18.14 percent, and Rubio fourth at 13.79 percent with 5.75 percent undecided.  A Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll of 543 likely voters taken March 2 and released March 3 reported similar findings with the main difference being Rubio in third, ahead of Kasich by only one percent.

“There were several changes resulting from Super Tuesday including a small bump up in Trump's support (42%) and a big change in the second spot as Cruz (19%) and Rubio (15%) changed places and percentages.  Cruz moved up 5% and Rubio dropped 4%.  Kasich (14%) moved up 2% and was also helped by the awareness that Carson was not debating and that he ‘could not see a path forward’ for his campaign,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said in a press release, comparing the results to the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll taken on March 1, a day earlier.  “It appears that Trump’s more conciliatory style in his Tuesday night press conference, Cruz’s four victories, and Rubio’s failure to meet expectations have changed the race.”

This is the polling story I said I'd write about in 'Dump Trump' and 'Arrest Snyder' at the Detroit Republican Debate.  Lots of analysis of where Rubio is losing his support at the link along with a video recap of Thursday's debate.  As for the fresh angle, I decided that who was moving in and out of second was more interesting than another "Trump leads" story--boring!

Examiner.com article on Clinton and Kasich endorsements

Hillary Clinton and John Kasich earned the endorsements of both the Detroit News and Detroit Free Press.

Clinton and Kasich endorsed by both Detroit daily newspapers

The Detroit News and Detroit Free Press agree on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and current Ohio Governor John Kasich.  This week, Detroit's major daily newspapers endorsed both candidates for their parties' nominations in advance of Michigan's presidential primary election on March 8.
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The two papers each had kind words for one other candidate.  The Detroit News said that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida "has considerable promise, and a compelling story."  Of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, The Free Press wrote that they "admire the passion and energy Sanders has brought to his populist crusade, and the often-cartoonish 2016 presidential campaign has benefited immensely from his tenacity in dragging the crucial issues of income inequality and campaign finance to center stage."

As well as agreeing on the merits of Clinton and Kasich, both newspapers agreed on the undesirability of New York real estate developer Donald Trump as a candidate.  The Detroit News predicted "the damage a Trump nomination would do to the Republican Party is incalculable."  The Free Press's assessment was even more dire, writing that if Trump were nominated, "the nation will face an electoral crisis of conscience and morality that it hasn't seen since the 1960s."

More at the link, including quotes from both newspapers in support of Clinton and Kasich and the actual photograph I used along with a video of former President of Mexico Vicente Fox endorsing Clinton over Trump and Sanders.

I know I hinted that I would write about the debate in Examiner.com article on Kasich campaigning in Michigan, but I decided that writing about yoga and penis jokes just didn't appeal to me.  Instead, I fell back into writing about one of the four subjects I like best, endorsements.  The others are polls, local campaign appearances, and minor parties.  I've already written a lot about polls and campaign events.  Since it's too early for the minor parties to make news this cycle, it was time for an endorsement story.

As for what's next, I'm feeling like writing about the protests outside the Fox Theatre last night instead of the debate itself.  Stay tuned.

Examiner.com article on Kasich campaigning in Michigan

Ohio Governor John Kasich, seen here in Virginia, is on a six-day campaign swing through Michigan ahead of the state's primary March 8.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Kasich 'phones in' first campaign stop in Michigan

Ohio Governor John Kasich's six-day campaign tour through Michigan began inauspiciously yesterday.  His charter plane from New York could not make it to his first scheduled stop, a town hall at the Student Union at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor on Tuesday morning, March 2.

Unable to attend in person, Kasich did the next best thing.  He called the approximately forty people at the venue and spoke to them over the phone.

Much more, including quotes from Kasich and a supporter, a video of Kasich about how to deal with Donald Trump, and the results of the latest poll, at the link.

As my readers can see, I was able to write the article about Kasich that I wasn't feeling earlier.  Now on to the debate!  WXYZ has a preview in GOP debate tonight in Detroit.


Stay tuned!

Sanders, Rubio, and Kasich campaign in Michigan

Now that Super Tuesday is over and Ben Carson has effectively dropped out, it's time for the remaining candidates to campaign in Michigan in advance of the debates and primary.  Yesterday felt familiar, featuring Bernie Sanders, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio stumping across the state.  WOOD-TV has the overall story in Super Tuesday survivors focus on MI voters.

With Super Tuesday behind them, presidential candidates are turning their eyes — and campaign buses — toward Michigan.

WOOD-TV had even more to say about Sanders in Sen. Bernie Sanders holds rally in East Lansing.

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders held a campaign rally on Michigan State University campus Wednesday.

MLive reported on Sanders' speech in Bernie Sanders tells Michigan State crowd to fight for change, support him.

EAST LANSING, MI – Young people who participate in the political process can make changes that seem impossible now, Sen. Bernie Sanders told thousands of students and community members gathered at the Breslin Center in East Lansing Wednesday.

Sanders said several years ago people would have thought gay marriage, a black president or a $15 per hour minimum wage was impossible. But these things happened because of a groundswell, not a top-down approach.

"The point is that is how change takes place. Have a vision, be prepared to fight for that vision, understand that it won't come overnight but keep your eye on the prize and we can make extraordinary things happen," Sanders said.

The speech sounds very similar to the one he gave in Ypsilanti last month.  Just the same, the crowd ate it up.  Because of this, I'll repeat my prediction about the primary results--"I expect Sanders to win Washtenaw County, Isabella County, Ingham County, and the Upper Peninsula, but that's about it."  Add in Kalamazoo County to include all the big college towns in Michigan and that should about cover it.

As for what's coming next, I promise I'll deal with the Islamophobia of Trump's supporters mentioned in Springtime for Trump.  I'll also have an Examiner.com article tonight or tomorrow.  The obvious subject is Kasich's phoned-in (literally) campaign event in Ann Arbor, but I'm not feeling it.  I'm more up for debate coverage.  That will probably draw more eyeballs.

The endorsements pour in for Rubio, but the smart money isn't so sure

With the departures of Chris Christie and especially Jeb Bush, the "Establishment lane" to the Republican nomination presents a clear choice between John Kasich/A> and Marco Rubio, and the Establishment has chosen Rubio.

After the Iowa Caucuses, I wrote the smart money and endorsements were more for Rubio than ever.  At that time, Rubio had just passed Bush.  Now, Rubio has shot up from 58 endorsement points to 137 as I write this with more than half of those (72) coming in the past two weeks.  Not only is Rubio in the lead by a wide margin, more than 100 points ahead of Ted Cruz's 22 and Kasich's 20, he's passed both where Ronald Reagan and John McCain were at this point in their campaigns.  The Party has decided on Rubio.

Normally, that would be it, as only one candidate in the past 36 years led in endorsements at this stage of the campaign yet failed to earn the nomination.  That was Dick Gephardt in 1988, who eventually lost the nomination to Mike Dukakis.*  The contrary historical precedent is that no Republican who has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has failed to win the nomination.  This favors Trump.  Follow over the jump for how the smart money is reacting to that.

Kasich stumps in Michigan

I dropped one of the shoes I dangled in Sanders and Kasich campaigning in Michigan on Presidents Day in Examiner.com article on Bernie Sanders in Ypsilanti.  Now it's time for me to let the other shoe fall.

Ohio Governor John Kasich made at least four stops over the past two days, two of which were covered by the TV stations whose YouTube feeds I monitor.  The first was in Allendale near Grand Rapids, which WOOD-TV showed in At GVSU, Kasich talks education, job growth.

Kasich talked a lot about personal responsibility and spoke directly to students about the role in leading the country in a few short years.

Kasich then stopped at Michigan State University, which I couldn't find a video of, then in Macomb County, where WXYZ caught up with him in John Kasich in Michigan.

Republican Presidential Candidate John Kasich is appearing in Michigan.

Both accounts mentioned how important Michigan is to Kasich's chances, WOOD=TV by pointing out that he needs to do well here, WXYZ by mentioning that this is Kasich's ninth visit to the state, the most of any candidate so far.  If I were a Republican, I'd wish him good luck, as he'll need it.  Instead, I wrote the following in a comment at Booman Tribune.

Kasich has a big hill to climb here.  One of the two most recent polls had Kasich in fourth, 15% behind Rubio and Cruz, who were tied for second behind Trump at 35%.  The other poll didn't even bother asking about Kasich.

He'll have to get all of Christie's and Fiorina's voters just to get into double digits here in Michigan, enough to beat Ben Carson and Jeb Bush, but not enough to win delegates.  Kasich would have to come in first in a Congressional District to get any of those.

Would such a performance make him drop out?  Probably not.  Losing Ohio would.  That happens on March 15th, the same day as the Florida primary.  That's when I expect Kasich to exit the contest and perhaps the weaker of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.  I expect to be writing another farewell post or two that week.

Proof of drinking game concept on Kasich

P M Carpenter posted the following C-SPAN video of John Kasich at Voters First Forum in John Kasich's rank simplicity on parade with the commentary "The clip is only four minutes long. You can do this. It's a hard but necessary viewing."


I decided to test the last drinking game I included in Drinks and drinking games for Donald Trump and the GOP debates in a comment to the entry.

Let's see how he did against the General and Kasich-specific cues for the drinking game at You Might Notice A Trend.
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•If any candidate tries to out-pander Trump, take a drink. This also applies to Trump, who is allowed within the rules to pander as much as inhumanly possible.

(One drink--eliminating "Sanctuary Cities")
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•If Kasich is even on the stage, take two drinks right off the bat because it probably means Christie got arrested beforehand and there was an opening.

(N/A, as it's for the Fox News debate; besides, it's Perry who won't be on stage, not Christie)

•If Kasich talks about immigration reform, take a drink.

(Yes, one drink)

•If Kasich defends his time working for Lehman Brothers, throw bottle at screen.
•If Kasich mentions how he was with the bipartisan team that got a balanced budget going in Congress back in the 1990s, take a drink and pity the poor guy because he just used the word 'bipartisan' in front of a GOP primary crowd that considers it a trigger word.

(Two drinks, as he mentioned it twice)

That's four drinks in four minutes. Good thing my glass was full of Crystal Lite.

It worked!  Now for an appropriate drink.  How about a Columbus Cocktail after Kasich's home town of Columbus, Ohio?

1 1/2 oz gold rum
3/4 oz apricot brandy
1 oz lime juice

Shake briefly with a glassful of crushed ice, and strain into a double-cocktail glass. Add a slice of lime and serve.

Looks good.  Two candidates down, eight to go.  Stay tuned.