Saturday, March 5, 2016 article on Rubio falling out of second in Michigan

Marco Rubio, seen here on the left of Donald Trump the other candidates at the Republican debate in Detroit, has fallen behind Ted Cruz in two polls, one of which also had John Kasich ahead of Rubio.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Rubio falls out of second in Michigan behind Cruz with Kasich gaining
While New York real estate developer Donald Trump still leads in Michigan, the race for second place continues to develop.  Two polls taken after Super Tuesday show that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has fallen out of second place and is being passed by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Governor John Kasich of Ohio, as Evangelicals and the youngest voters move from Rubio to Cruz, middle-aged voter shift from Rubio to Trump, and older voters change from Rubio to Kasich and Trump.

A poll of 1643 likely Republican primary voters by the Trafalgar Group conducted on March 2 and March 3 and released overnight between March 3 and March 4 found Trump leading with 41.87 percent, Cruz second at 20.45 percent, Kasich third with 18.14 percent, and Rubio fourth at 13.79 percent with 5.75 percent undecided.  A Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll of 543 likely voters taken March 2 and released March 3 reported similar findings with the main difference being Rubio in third, ahead of Kasich by only one percent.

“There were several changes resulting from Super Tuesday including a small bump up in Trump's support (42%) and a big change in the second spot as Cruz (19%) and Rubio (15%) changed places and percentages.  Cruz moved up 5% and Rubio dropped 4%.  Kasich (14%) moved up 2% and was also helped by the awareness that Carson was not debating and that he ‘could not see a path forward’ for his campaign,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said in a press release, comparing the results to the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll taken on March 1, a day earlier.  “It appears that Trump’s more conciliatory style in his Tuesday night press conference, Cruz’s four victories, and Rubio’s failure to meet expectations have changed the race.”
This is the polling story I said I'd write about in 'Dump Trump' and 'Arrest Snyder' at the Detroit Republican Debate.  Lots of analysis of where Rubio is losing his support at the link along with a video recap of Thursday's debate.  As for the fresh angle, I decided that who was moving in and out of second was more interesting than another "Trump leads" story--boring!


  1. the primaries and caucuses happening right now this Saturday are all either Cruz Wins or Trump Wins. And Rubio still stuck in THIRD PLACE.

    Stop trying to make him happen, Republicans, Rubio is not gonna happen...

    1. I thought that might be you. Rubio's failure would be music to your ears.

      Yeah, I wrote the article, then watched the returns. I was not surprised in the least when I saw Rubio's poor showing tonight. He might get another victory in Puerto Rico tomorrow (technically today), but that should be it.

      He'll do badly in Michigan, as another poll was released after I started writing the article showing Rubio tied with Cruz for third. That wasn't a surprise. Kasich beating Trump--that's a surprise. Unfortunately, I don't believe it, not yet. A strong second for Kasich is more likely.

      As for "Little Marco," I predict he'll lose Florida and then drop out. If Kasich wins Ohio, then he'll have the establishment/moderate vote all to himself from here on out.