Minor parties for the sixth year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News

I ended Michigan recount for the sixth year of Crazy Eddie's Motie News by telling my readers that I would "examine top posts about minor party candidates next in this series."  With only a couple of hours left in the day, here is the retrospective I promised.

The sixth most read entry posted last year and the seventh most read of all time is 2016 could be a good year for minor party candidates with 3640 page views, 3773 according to the raw counter.  As I have done repeatedly, I'll be a good environmentalist and recycle to tell the story of its page views, this time from Monthly meta for May 2016.

The top post of May 2016 was "2016 could be a good year for minor party candidates" from May 14, 2016 with 3669 page views, 3676 according to the raw counter.  It also came in second for most comments with 6.  It earned its page views from being shared at the Coffee Party Facebook page, where it got more than 3400 page views in the first 24 hours, and helped attract 3440 page views the next day, 883 the first hour.  The entry also ended the month as the second most read of all time, knocking "Corn questions from 'Food, Inc.' worksheet" out of the top ten after it had briefly re-entered the leader board at the start of the month.

It did turn out to be a good year for minor parties, both in the top twenty on in the real world.  Follow over the jump for three more entries plus an update on the story.

Libertarians achieve 'major party' status in Michigan

I finished Greens win more offices than Libertarians in Michigan by writing "The Libertarians can take some consolation from achieving "major party" status, a topic I'll save for tomorrow."  The Greens may have elected more candidates to office, but the Libertarians won enough votes to play by the same rules as the Democrats and Republicans, at least in this state.  The Detroit News has the story.

Michigan Libertarians received enough votes to have their candidates listed in the next state primary election in August 2018.

Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson earned Tuesday more than the 154,040-vote threshold necessary for the Libertarian Party of Michigan to participate in the August 2018 statewide primary.

The former Republican governor from New Mexico won 172,711 votes in Michigan, or 3.6 percent of the state’s total vote. That’s the largest percentage of votes captured by a third-party candidate since Ross Perot won 9 percent in 1996.

I thought 2016 would be a good year for minor party candidates.  This is yet another sign that it was.

The good news is that the Libertarians will have more visibility.  The voting public will get to see the party's candidates' names on the August primary ballot and the party will likely be eligible to participate in more debates.

The bad news is that this means the party will have to work much harder, as Michigan Radio reports.

[Michigan Libertarian Party Chairman Bill]Gelineau cautions [it] will be a “challenge” for the party to maintain ‘major party’ status.

“We’re going to have to find a candidate that runs for governor [in 2018] who’s going to be able to express those values and rally people to maintain that level,” says Gelineau.

Along with fielding strong candidates, Gelineau says Libertarians will also have to back ballot questions in keeping with their philosophy of believing in free enterprise and the free market system together with a tolerant social policy. He says that would include legalizing marijuana.

That issue would probably be a winner in this state, as it contributed to some of the good news from last week's election.  The problem won't be the legalization vote; I'm sure that will happen.  Instead, it would be qualifying for the ballot.  Doing so is more difficult now than it was just a few years ago.

Speaking of which, major party status and participation in the primaries means that Libertarians will have to qualify their candidates for Governor and the federal and state legislatures by petition instead of by convention.  Ballotpedia lists the number of signatures required depending on the population of the district.   For State House, that's a minimum of 200 signatures.  One candidate could probably collect those.  It gets tougher for U.S. House, where a minimum of 1,000 valid signatures are required.  That isn't guaranteed even for major party candidates, as Thaddeus McCotter found out the hard way in 2012.  The hurdle rests even higher for U.S. Senate and Governor, both of which will require 15,000 signatures.  That's going to be daunting for a party that is used to nominating people at a convention for all offices.

When Gelineau said that the Libertarian party organization would have to change to accomodate major party status, he wasn't kidding.  The Republicans and Democrats have clubs in most medium-sized or larger municipalities (Royal Oak, Southfield, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield each have their own Democratic clubs), and those are where the candidates get a lot of their petitions signed.  I don't know if the Libertarians have that level of local organization.  If they don't, they might need to create it in order to qualify their candidates for the ballot.  That might be interesting to watch.

John Oliver and Keith Olbermann examine minor party candidates

Earlier this month, I shared how Stephen Colbert and Seth Meyers mocked Gary Johnson and Bill Maher warned against voting for him even as newspapers endorsed him.  I pointed out this was exactly what should be happenning in a good year for minor party candidates.

Now, John Oliver spreads the attention and the mirth not only at Johnson, but also Jill Stein and some other minor party candidates for President in Third Parties.

Third party candidates want to be serious contenders, so John Oliver considers them seriously as potential presidents.

What I saw actually made me think better of Gary Johnson.  First, he proved he was smarter and better prepared than Rick Perry.  Asking Perry what three departments he'd eliminate led to his infamous "Oops" moment.  At least Johnson could name them off the top of his head.  Second, I didn't know he climbed Mt. Everest.  Regardless of his politics, that's impressive.  Third, he actually has the right attitude of humility about his accomplishment; one does not conquer the mountain, one merely survives the experience of visiting.  Just the same, his metaphor for expressing himself is downright strange--but that's Johnson.

As for Stein, Oliver shows she can do more musically than play the bongos; she sings better than I expected, although AutoTune may have done wonders for her.  However, Oliver exposes how she is even more tolerant of bad weird ideas than Johnson.  I found that disappointing.

While Oliver came to the conclusion that all of the candidates are flawed, so voting for Johnson, Stein, "Joe Exotic," or any of the candidates in last night's Free and Equal debate will not be any better than voting for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, Keith Olbermann actively warned his viewers against voting for any minor party candidate in This Election is Too Important Not to Vote for Hillary.

Don't like Hillary Clinton? Desperate to change the system? That's fine. But those impulses must wait.

I'm not quite that adamant.  If any of my readers live in a safely Red or Blue state, voting for Johnson, Stein, Darrell Castle, or Evan McMullin will not matter; go right ahead, you're throwing away your vote harmlessly and in the case of Johnson will likely end up qualifying the Libertarians for public election funding.  On the other hand, those who live in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, or Ohio have votes too valuable to waste.  Think hard about your vote this time, and then work to change the system between elections.  That's more likely to get the results minor party voters say they want.

As for Keith, he may be scared, but at least he remembered his tag line--"watch this space."

Free and Equal debate tonight

Last week's debate, which prompted Keith Olbermann to declare Trump a threat to democracy and people to stream Janet Jackson's 'Nasty' in response to Trump insulting Clinton, wasn't the last debate of the campaign.  Like 2012, the Free and Equal Debate for minor party and independent candidates will be.  Take it away, Denver Post!

Actor Ed Asner will moderate a presidential debate being held Tuesday on the University of Colorado, organizers announced Monday.

Asner, the seven-time Emmy Award-winner best known for his performances in “The Mary Tyler Moore Show,” “Lou Grant” and the animated film “Up,” will lead a discussion between presidential candidates Darrell Castle, of the Constitution Party; Gloria La Riva, of the Socialist Party, and Rocky De La Fuente, an independent candidate, the Daily Camera reports.

Unlike four years ago, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, who have been invited along with Evan McMullin, Bill Kristol's better joke, probably won't attend.  That's disappointing.  If any of them were likely to show up, I'd be tempted to put together drinks and a drinking game for the event.  It would be worth it for the B-list candidates.  For these C-listers, I'm not going to bother.

Happy Canadian Thanksgiving 2016!

Happy Canadian Thanksgiving!  For this year's celebration, I'm going to pass the mic to Lisa Ryan of New York Magazine, who writes This Canadian Thanksgiving, We Give Thanks for Justin Trudeau.

Today is Canadian Thanksgiving, a day in which our neighbors to the north gorge on pumpkin pie, mashed potatoes, and coma-inducing turkey while subjecting themselves to hours of awkward conversations with relatives. It’s a lot like American Thanksgiving, but everybody is much nicer to each other.

On this joyous occasion, let’s celebrate the Canadian who matters most to us besides Drake: Justin Trudeau. Here’s why we’re thankful for this walking feminist meme.

Among the many reasons listed is "He’s also pro pot."  On that basis alone, Gary Johnson should have been able to name him as a world leader he admires.  Too bad he didn't.

Newspaper endorsements roll in while comedians laugh at Gary Johnson

I wrote 2016 could be a good year for minor party candidates and then made a prediction of what that would most likely look like.

FiveThirtyEight asked Could An Independent Candidate Succeed In 2016?  Of all the answers to the question, I agreed most with Harry Enten, who said "this year pretty much meets all the criteria for at least a moderately successful third-party candidacy."  For me, that means that the Libertarians and possibly the Greens could reach the threshold of five percent of the popular vote to qualify for public financing in 2020.  The Constitution Party does not have ballot access in enough states to meet that criterion.  It's very unlikely that even one of the minor parties will qualify for the debates with the major party candidates.  As Gary Johnson pointed out, that requires fifteen percent in several polls before the debates.   While minor parties have earned Electoral College votes before, that happened when they had concentrated regional strength, such as the Dixiecrats and the American Independent Party, and could win pluralities in three-party contests.  Neither the Libertarians nor the Greens meet that criterion; their support is more diffuse.  Consequently, none of the minor parties will win the presidency, but they'll certainly overperform compared to any election since 2000 and possibly even 1996, but not 1992.  None of these candidates is Ross Perot.  Even he didn't win any Electoral College votes.

So far, those predictions are panning out.  First, Johnson did not get into the debates, as he did not get 15% in the polls in time.  Second, as of today, FiveThirtyEight projects Johnson will earn 7.6% of the vote in November.  That would be the best showing for a minor party candidate since Perot in 1996, but not better; Perot earned 8.4% in that election.  As I wrote, Johnson is not Perot.  Third, FiveThirtyEight is also predicting only a 2.9% probability that Johnson will earn any electoral votes, most likely in his home state of New Mexico.  My forecast, as far as it went, is coming true.  That written, there are two results of Johnson's success that I didn't foresee, the newspaper endorsements and the comedic reaction.

First, the endorsements.  Politico quoted the Chicago Tribune endorsing Gary Johnson for president and listed Johnson's other endorsements.

“We would rather recommend a principled candidate for president — regardless of his or her prospects for victory — than suggest that voters cast ballots for such disappointing major-party candidates,” the editorial board wrote.

“We reject the cliche that a citizen who chooses a principled third-party candidate is squandering his or her vote,” the endorsement continued. “…We offer this endorsement to encourage voters who want to feel comfortable with their choice. Who want to vote for someone they can admire.”
...
It’s the fifth newspaper endorsement that Johnson, who is polling in the single digits, has received from traditionally right-leaning editorial boards. On Thursday, The Detroit News, which has until this year always endorsed Republican candidates for the presidency, endorsed Johnson. The Libertarian candidate also has received endorsements from the New Hampshire Union-Leader, the Richmond Times-Dispatch and the Winston-Salem Journal.

In contrast, the closest Trump has to a major metropolitain newspaper endorsement comes from the New York Post.  Five endorsements to maybe one.  That's not a result I would have expected, even from the Detroit News.  Speaking of which, WXYZ reported on Detroit News endorses Libertarian Gary Johnson for president.  Roll video!


Get used to that clip.  It will show up again and again over the jump as Stephen Colbert, Seth Meyers, Bill Maher, and Sarah Silverman laugh at Johnson.

Trump, Johnson, and Kaine campaigning in Michigan

Just two weeks ago, Donald Trump and Jill Stein visited Detroit.  This week, Trump returned to Michigan, where he was interrupted and heckled as he visited a church in Flint.  WOOD-TV reports.

Trump was chastised and heckled during what was supposed to be a speech on helping where the government had failed the people of Flint.

Trump may have had supporters there, but he had more detractors, and they weren't shy about booing him when he left the church.  The only good news for him on that front was that Rashida Tlaib wasn't there, or the protest would have been better organized.

Just like Trump's previous visit to Michigan, a minor party candidate visited Detroit the same day.  Then, it was Stein.  Yesterday, it was Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson speaking to the Detroit Economic Club.  Again, WOOD-TV reports.


Johnson's message about the auto companies probably wasn't popular, but at least it was ideologically consistent.

Hillary Clinton may have been off the campaign trail early this week because of illness, but her surrogates were out in force.  Chief among them was Tim Kaine, who spoke in Ann Arbor on Tuesday.  WXYZ reports.

Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Kaine spoke at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Kaine was certainly better received in Ann Arbor than Trump was in Flint.  May the vote totals in November reflect this.

Latest poll has Clinton leading Trump by fifteen percent in Michigan

Wednesday, a poll conducted by pollster Evolving Strategies for Ballotpedia reported that presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in Michigan by seventeen points.  The next day, June 30, pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner released a poll commissioned by Democracy Corps showing Clinton with a lead of fifteen percent in the Great Lakes State.

The survey of 300 likely Michigan voters found forty-eight percent supporting Clinton, thirty-three percent favoring Trump, and twelve percent answering they would vote for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson.  This was Clinton's largest lead in any of the nine battleground states surveyed, which included the Rust Belt states of New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in addition to Michigan along with the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina, which the polling firm classified as "diverse states."

Clinton led Trump by an average of eight percent in all nine states, whether Rust Belt or Sun Belt.  However, she had a lower level of support in the Rust Belt states, forty-four percent in the Rust Belt as opposed to forty-seven percent in those labeled diverse.  Trump's average also dropped, falling from thirty-nine percent in the diverse states to thirty-six percent in the Rust Belt.

After Michigan, Clinton had the largest lead in Wisconsin, where she was ahead of Trump by twelve percent.  Florida came next with twelve percent, followed by North Carolina with ten percent and Pennsylvania at nine percent.

The poll found Clinton and Trump tied in Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.  Trump led only in Arizona with a margin of six percent.

Johnson was the one candidate who fared better in the Rust Belt.  An average of thirteen percent of those responding in the Rust Belt states supported him, while only nine percent of those in the diverse states did.  He earned the most support in Wisconsin with sixteen percent and the least in North Carolina with eight percent.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com included the poll in his presidential election forecast, but it had little effect on the projected outcome. Clinton's odds of winning Michigan remained at ninety-one percent, Trump at just over nine percent, and Johnson at two-tenths of a percent chance of winning the state.  Clinton is still projected to receive just less than fifty percent of the vote in the state and Trump a little more than thirty-eight percent, while Johnson's projected vote share fell from nearly eleven percent to just over ten percent between Thursday and Friday.

Examiner.com article on Clinton leading Trump by 17% in Michigan

Hillary Clinton, seen here campaigning in New Jersey, has a seventeen percent lead over Donald Trump in Michigan according to the latest poll.
Photo by Getty Images/Spencer Platt

Poll shows Clinton leading Trump by seventeen points in Michigan

A poll of Michigan and six other battleground states released Wednesday, June 29, shows presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in Michigan and six other states.  The poll, commissioned by Ballotpedia and conducted by Evolving Strategies, showed Clinton leading Trump in a two-way race by seventeen points in the Great Lakes State, the largest margin in the seven states surveyed.

Evolving Strategies also asked about voters' preferences in a three-way contest including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson.  Clinton maintained her seventeen-point lead over Trump in Michigan and also had a thirty-seven point lead over Johnson.
...
In a two-way contest, the poll reported fifty percent of those surveyed in Michigan supported Clinton, while thirty-three percent favored Trump with sixteen percent preferring neither of them and one percent refusing to answer.  In a three-way race, Clinton's support dropped to forty-seven percent and Trump's to thirty percent, while Johnson earned fourteen percent.  Eight percent favored none of the three while two percent refused to answer.
...
Silver included the poll in his presidential election forecast.  As a result, he found that Clinton has an eighty percent chance of winning the election and a nearly ninety-one percent chance of winning Michigan.  Trump had just over nine percent, while Johnson had a two-tenths of a percent chance of winning the state.  Silver projected that Clinton would get about fifty percent of the vote in the state, Trump thirty-eight percent, and Johnson nearly eleven percent.

Click on the link at the headline for more, including a video from Wochit.  Unfortunately, it's not this one: Kasich Says He Is Beating Trump In Polls.

John Kasich dropped from the presidential race nearly two months ago, but his campaign is still arguing that he would be the best Republican candidate to take on Hillary Clinton -- not Donald Trump. The Ohio governor's top political adviser claimed Wednesday that polls show Kasich beating Clinton in swing states and Trump getting crushed. Kasich has not endorsed Trump and refuses to speak at the presumptive nominee's convention, even though it will take place in his home state.

Good luck trying to get the convention delegates to Dump Trump and nominate you, Governor.

Stay tuned for a Canada Day entry.

Examiner.com article on Clinton leading Trump and Johnson in Michigan

Hillary Clinton, seen here campaigning in New Jersey, has a more than four percent lead over Donald Trump in Michigan according to the latest poll.

Poll shows Clinton leading Trump and Johnson in Michigan

Late Tuesday evening, WDIV released the results of a poll it and the Detroit News commissioned.  It showed likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump by 4.5 percent in a two-way contest.

Clinton also led Trump in a three-way contest including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson.  Her lead shrank to 4.1 percent when Johnson was included, indicating that the Libertarian candidate drew from both Republicans and Democrats.  Both leads were barely outside the margin of error, which was four percent.

“It appears that right now the support (for Johnson) comes equally from both sides,” pollster Richard Czuba of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted the poll, said to the Detroit News. “It’s kind of that middle that’s intrigued with the Libertarian option.”

Johnson got 11.5 percent when his name was included.  It's already a good year for minor party candidates, including the Michigan Libertarians.

More at the link, including good news for Bernie Sanders and a video of Clinton and Trump attacking each other over their legal problems.  May Clinton get the better of that exchange.

Examiner.com article on 2016 Michigan Libertarian nominees

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, seen here at the Free and Equal Debate in 2012, will head the Libertarian ticket as the party's nominee for President again.

Michigan Libertarians announce 2016 candidates from President to Park Commission

Wednesday morning, the Libertarian Party of Michigan released its list of nominees for offices from U.S. President to Ypsilanti Township Park Commissioner.  The candidates for state and local office had been nominated at the party's state convention in Lansing the weekend of May 14 and 15, while the nominees for President and Vice President were nominated May 29 at the Libertarian Party national convention in Orlando, Florida.

Two former two-term Republican Governors earned the Libertarians' nominations for President and Vice-President, Gary Johnson of New Mexico at the top of the ticket and William Weld of Massachusetts as Johnson's running mate.  Combined, the two of them have more executive experience than either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

It looks like CNN and MSNBC got the Libertarian ticket they were hoping for.

Although it will be the second time Johnson has run as the Libertarian's nominee, it will be the first time he will be on Michigan ballots.  In 2012, Michigan Secretary of State Ruth Johnson, no relation, disqualified him under the state's sore loser law.

I told that story in Michigan Secretary of State attempts to screw over Libertarians.  She succeeded, too.

Now for the state party's nominees.

A nearly full slate of nominees for Congress will join Johnson and Weld on Michigan ballots with candidates in all districts except the Third.  In Washtenaw County, the Libertarian candidates are Ken Proctor of Charlotte in the Seventh District and Tom Bagwell of Wyandotte in the Twelfth.

All the rest of the Libertarian candidates on the ballot in Washtenaw County, Michigan, along with a video of Gary Johnson's and William Weld's nominations, at the link.  Read and watch there.

The most interesting in terms of practical effect are running for the lowest offices.

Finally, the Libertarians nominated three candidates for Ypsilanti Township Park Commissioner, Elizabeth Ceader, Lawrence W. Johnson, and Kalyn Sterzik.  Of this group, Johnson had previously run for Ypsilanti Township Trustee in 2012 and lost.  He and the rest may have more success this year.  There are currently four Democratic candidates on the August primary ballot for seven slots with no Republican candidates.  Unless another party nominates candidates or an independent files for the office, all three appear likely to be elected, serving as the opposition to the Democrats.

Even if these three are the only Libertarians elected in Michigan this year, 2016 would still be a good year for minor party candidates.

CNN and MSNBC interview Libertarian candidates William Weld and Gary Johnson

Over the weekend, Paul W. mentioned that the Libertarian national convention would be in Orlando this weekend and linked to Libertarian Gary Johnson picks former Mass. governor for VP at Politico.  I had the following reaction.

As for [William] Weld running with Johnson, that's a very serious ticket should the Libertarians actually choose both. They are serious about being the alternative to Trump and whoever he picks (please, let it be either Gingrich or Palin--the laughs will keep coming all the way to Election Day!) Too bad neither will meet the approval of William Kristol; the Libertarians are insufficiently hawkish and interventionist for his taste. He'd be better off with Hillary Clinton, but he'll never admit it. No wonder liberals call him "Captain Always Wrong."

As if on cue, CNN interviewed Weld on Sunday, just as they did Gary Johnson two weeks ago.

Today on CNN's State of the Union, Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld and Libertarian Vice Presidential Candidate, joined Jake Tapper to discuss his comparison between Trump and the Holocaust, gun control and more.

I still think 2016 could be a good year for minor party candidates and so does CNN.

MSNBC does as well.  The Sunday before, Chuck Todd interviewed Gary Johnson in the context of Calls For Alternative Candidates Grows.

Can Republicans rally around Donald Trump as the convention draws near or will disaffected Republicans seek an alternative option in November? Former GOP New Mexico Governor and Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson weighs in.

The Libertarian convention is this weekend.  Stay tuned for the results.