John Kasich, seen here at the Fox News debate in Detroit, is ahead of Donald Trump in one poll of Michigan voters.Most recently conducted poll shows Kasich ahead of Trump in Michigan
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
The first poll conducted entirely after the Fox News debate in Detroit showed New York real estate developer Donald Trump no longer leading in Michigan. Instead, Ohio Governor John Kasich had gained a narrow lead in the race for the Republican nomination for President in the Great Lakes State.More at the link, including a continuation of Nate's analysis, the results of two more polls, and a video of Kasich saying he thinks he'll do well in Michigan. Yes, I'm pushing Kasich, but the news is actually in his favor. Besides, if I were still a Republican, I'd vote for him.
The Columbus Dispatch reported the results of an American Research Group poll that surveyed 400 likely Republican voters on March 4 and March 5. It found Kasich the most popular choice with thirty-three percent, Trump in second with thirty-one percent, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in third with fifteen percent, and Marco Rubio of Florida in last with twelve percent. It was the first survey of Michigan voters after both the debate and the Detroit News endorsement of Kasich for the March 8 Michigan Republican Presidential primary, both of which occurred on March 3.
FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver told readers in his live reporting of Saturday's primary returns that they should be skeptical of these findings. He wrote that American Research Group was "not a highly-rated pollster," ranking near the bottom of his site's rankings. They "sometimes post results that are way different from the pack," making them "interesting more often than they’re accurate."
Stay tuned for the Sunday entertainment entry, which may be delayed until anywhere between tomorrow and Thurssday. That's happened before.