Saturday, July 27, 2013

July's fear premium spike is over

I described the local gas price situation last Wednesday in Gas drops slightly to $3.65.
The local stations held steady at $3.69 until yesterday afternoon, when all of them dropped their price to $3.65.  I was right when I wrote two weeks ago that "Prices will go up, but the $3.69 at the corner station is too high."  Unfortunately for my prognostication, it took two weeks for regular gas to fall below $3.65, not a few days.
I should have written "fall below $3.69," not $3.65, but last Thursday, prices did go below $3.65.  As I drove past the stations down the block Thursday morning, they were all at $3.59.  By the evening, the station on the corner had joined them.  That means my prediction from last week came true.
I still expect prices to fall to the $3.59 level by the end of the month.  That's only 11 days away.
It happened in just a week.

I haven't looked at the prices today, although I'll walk past the corner station later.  I expect to see that the priceshave sunk a bit more, as the data at Econobrowser show that the average for metro Detroit is currently at $3.58, and the local stations are usually below that by as much as a dime.  Detroit's price is also below the national average of $3.65 and just above the expected national average of $3.52 for the current Brent price of $107.17.  Since prices are in the reasonable range given the price of crude and Brent is now declining, I declare the July fear premium spike over.

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