When I wrote about the yield curve inverting and sending another recession signal, I predicted that "trade, which I haven't written enough about, is likely to be straw that breaks the camel's back of the economic expansion and that a recession is inevitable." It looks like that straw has just been loaded, even if the camel is still standing. Yesterday morning, the day began on MSNBC with Joe Scarborough saying of the tariffs on Chinese goods " This Is A $200B Tax Increase On Americans" on Morning Joe.
The Morning Joe panel discusses the costs of the president's trade tariffs on China and the impact the tariffs are having on U.S. businesses and households.Yesterday's futures forecast a 200-point drop in the Dow. It ended up being more than 600 points by the end of the day with the Dow falling 700 points during the session. CNBC dissected yesterday's market activity looking for a cause in Stocks are getting crushed as the trade war heats up, here's how bad traders think it could get.
The Dow sinks 600 points as trade turmoil roils Wall Street. How bad could it get? With CNBC's Eamon Javers and Melissa Lee, and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.It should come as no surprise that I agree with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan that the market was overvalued and ready to fall and the trade war gave investors just the excuse they needed to sell. I've been bearish and on recession watch since December 2017 and still stand behind the prediction I made in Ten years ago, we were partying like it was 1929. Are we about to do it again?
Based on New Deal Democrat's analysis at Seeking Alpha, that should happen in the second half of next year, so I'm moving my recession call to between July and December 2019. The bad news is that my readers and I may not know until the middle of 2020. The good news is that it would be perfectly timed to screw up Trump's re-election, should he last that long, or Pence's should he not. I can live with that.I hope the American people can as well.