Wednesday, March 31, 2021

The U.S. passes 30 million reported COVID-19 cases as cases spike in Michigan, a pandemic update

I told my readers "The next milestone will likely be 30 million cases in the U.S., which should happen before 600,000 deaths. I'll report on both when they happen" near the end of Vox and FiveThirtyEight on the future of COVID-19, a pandemic anniversary update. The first happened late last week, as CBS Evening News reported in Coronavirus cases spike across U.S. at alarming rate

New coronavirus cases are on the rise in many states, but nowhere are cases spiking more than in Michigan. Mola Lenghi takes a look.
CBS Evening News uploaded that on March 25, six days ago. CBS News (CBSN) updated the situation in Michigan and elsewhere in Health experts warn of the next U.S. COVID surge as several states see cases rise.

The U.S. coronavirus death toll has topped 550,000 as experts warn the next surge of cases is already here. But as CBS News' Omar Villafranca reports, doctors say the rise in cases can be slowed. Then, Dr. Dara Kass, an emergency room doctor and medical contributor for Yahoo News, joins CBSN's Elaine Quijano with more.
As I'm typing this, Johns Hopkins lists the current U.S. case count at 30,405,361 and total deaths in the country at 551,503. That's a grim update.

As a Michigan resident, I'm even more glad after seeing both clips that my wife and I got our first dose of the vaccine last week. Here's to our staying safe and healthy until we get our second and final doses next week.

CNN presented the national picture and more expert reaction in CDC director gives emotional warning of 'impending doom'.

After announcing that the United States has surpassed 30 million cases of Covid-19, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said she had a feeling of "impending doom" about the pandemic.
I'm with Dr. Leana Wen; we're in a race between vaccines on one hand and variants on the other. We need people to continue wearing masks and staying socially distant in public even after they are vaccinated at least until this wave is over. Otherwise, we could stumble at the finish line of this pandemic. That's both frustrating and dangerous.

That completes the look at the U.S. passing 30 million cases, nearly 10% of the country. Follow over the jump for videos about the next milestone, 600,000 dead in the U.S. from COVID-19.

CGTN (yeah, I know, the English language service of Chinese State TV, but this story looks legit) reported Model predicts over 600,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by June last month.

The University of Washington's new coronavirus model predicts over 610,000 deaths from the virus in the U.S. by the start of June, but researchers warned that the increased spread of new variants could send the death toll higher.
The good news is that WPXI in Pittsburgh reported more than 143 million COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered across US as of two days ago according to the CDC, four million of them in Michigan. The bad news is that people should take the University of Washington forecasts seriously. KING 5 in Seattle explains why in UW Dr. Ali Mokdad explains accuracy of COVID-19 predictions and the personal toll of the pandemic.

Throughout the pandemic, University of Washington scientists have predicted, with surprising accuracy, the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths in our state and across the nation.

Their models have gotten more accurate as they’ve collected more data from around the world. Click here to see the newest projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.

UW researcher Dr. Ali Mokdad told KING 5 News that COVID-19 is seasonal. Mokdad said, across the globe, there are more cases in the winter months.
Yes, we should take the prediction of 600,000 dead by June 1, 2021 very seriously. Also, Dr. Ali Mokdad replied that COVID-19 may kill more people than the Spanish flu. I'm sharing the relevant paragraph from the CDC website to put that in perspective.
It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.
Even if I only concentrate on total U.S. deaths, that means more than 675,000 deaths. Total U.S. mortality from the pandemic could exceed 700,000 before this is all over. YIKES! May none of my readers be among this toll.

That's it for March. Stay tuned for a less serious entry tomorrow for April Fools Day, which will also be a Throwback Thursday. A funny look back, anyone?

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